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Rockets' 2007/08 playoff chance/odds

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Teckon
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Rockets' 2007/08 playoff chance/odds 

Post#1 » by Teckon » Mon Jan 7, 2008 2:00 am

Some may say it is too early to discuss this topic but 34 games has been played - that is 41% of the season gone. Rockets is currently the 10th team in standing in the West conference. They are currently on a 2 wins streak and things are looking good for the Rockets.

According to Hollinger's Playoff Odds as of today, he projected Rockets to be the 8th seed ahead of GSW and Denver Nuggets (I am surprised!). This is just a projection and should not take it too seriously but Hollinger's projection is still based on some facts and stats which in my opinion is better than some random opinions. The good thing about this projection is Hollinger tries to account for the strength of the schedule. Rockets has one of the toughest schedule in November, December and the schedule starts to soften in January, February. In fact, 2 games ago, when i checked the playoff odds, he projected Rockets at 10th after the loss to Celtics (same as conference standing). But after winning 2 games, Rockets is now projected at 8th. I will like to see what's the projection after another 8 games...

Another interesting observation, you might argue over the validity of such projection, but most experts will also agree that the 5 teams (Spurs, Suns, Mavs, Hornets, Lakers) are in very favourable positions and will most likely to make the playoff baring any disaster (like 2 or more of their key players missing a long stretch of the remaining schedule). That's leave only 3 spots for the remaining 5 teams (Jazz, Blazers, Rockets, Warriors, Nuggets). The projected wins for these 5 teams are very close to each other. Hence, wins/losses against these 5 teams will be critical in event of a tied in the win/loss column at the end of the season. It will be the worst way to miss the playoff in such situation.

:banghead: :banghead:

See link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
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Post#2 » by TMACFORMVP » Mon Jan 7, 2008 2:22 am

Yeah West is definitely tough this year, it's not exactly the strongest in terms of dominance since Dallas, Phoenix and some extent San Antonio have looked beatable this season, but as a whole wise, the West is full of teams that could potentially beat each other (though I wouldn't bet against San Antonio).

1/2/3-SA, Dal, Phx are pretty much locks IMO
4/5/6-Den, LA, and New Orleans look legit

Which leaves two more spots between us, Utah, Portland, and Golden State. Some could make an argument that Den, LA and NO shouldn't be really be up there, but all three are playing well and have all season.

Portland is seriously on a roll, they've won what 16 of their last 17 games? And just beat Utah with Roy only playing 9 minutes. Roy looks real poised and though you keep wondering when they slip, they aren't and starting to look more and more legit each game, kind of like the situation the Jazz were last season.

Golden State has been much better then what their record is when Jackson has come back and blown us out twice already this season. After they play SA, they could go on a huge run with the next 10 teams being under .500

I have no idea what the problem is with Utah, they've missed Okur and Kirilenko for stretches of games but it's not like they've missed their two best players and Okur has been awful this season. I think a lack of an interior presence inside is really hurting them. Last year they were a team that executed and played tough physical defense, but this season seems their defense is a non-factor and they aren't as talented of an offensive team to score at will like a Golden State or Phoneix.

Then it comes to us, we've played much better as of late, entering a relatively easier schedule and McGrady is expected to come back this week, but still some questions to be answered. It seems like 45-46 wins might be needed just to qualify for the playoffs meaning we'd have to go around 29-19 or 30-18 to make the playoffs which is definitely possible, but we'd have to stay consistent and most importantly healthy which is a big question mark for us.

If everything goes right, meaning health wise, and consistency wise, we'd likely get in, but again, we really have to have everything go our way and frankly get a little lucky.
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Post#3 » by BaYBaller » Mon Jan 7, 2008 2:34 am

I think GS is more of a lock to make the PO's than Denver, and that's saying something given GS's inconsistency. Denver has had the 3rd easiest schedule so far along with a ton of home games. Denver is very overrated atm IMO.

And FYI Rockets have had the 2nd hardest schedule so far. I think we'll have a much clearly picture of their PO chances once T-Mac gets back and how he fits in.
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Post#4 » by Baller 24 » Mon Jan 7, 2008 3:18 am

I think we will be alright as long as we make a run, we had the toughest two months in the NBA, and now its an easy breeze from here on. Hopefully we continue playing well when Tmac comes back. Our offense IMO looks very good, we need to cut back on turnovers to. We should be alright though, we should make the playoffs, im assuming with the schedule we have now a 4th, 5th, or 6th seed.
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