Rockets' 2007/08 playoff chance/odds
Posted: Mon Jan 7, 2008 2:00 am
Some may say it is too early to discuss this topic but 34 games has been played - that is 41% of the season gone. Rockets is currently the 10th team in standing in the West conference. They are currently on a 2 wins streak and things are looking good for the Rockets.
According to Hollinger's Playoff Odds as of today, he projected Rockets to be the 8th seed ahead of GSW and Denver Nuggets (I am surprised!). This is just a projection and should not take it too seriously but Hollinger's projection is still based on some facts and stats which in my opinion is better than some random opinions. The good thing about this projection is Hollinger tries to account for the strength of the schedule. Rockets has one of the toughest schedule in November, December and the schedule starts to soften in January, February. In fact, 2 games ago, when i checked the playoff odds, he projected Rockets at 10th after the loss to Celtics (same as conference standing). But after winning 2 games, Rockets is now projected at 8th. I will like to see what's the projection after another 8 games...
Another interesting observation, you might argue over the validity of such projection, but most experts will also agree that the 5 teams (Spurs, Suns, Mavs, Hornets, Lakers) are in very favourable positions and will most likely to make the playoff baring any disaster (like 2 or more of their key players missing a long stretch of the remaining schedule). That's leave only 3 spots for the remaining 5 teams (Jazz, Blazers, Rockets, Warriors, Nuggets). The projected wins for these 5 teams are very close to each other. Hence, wins/losses against these 5 teams will be critical in event of a tied in the win/loss column at the end of the season. It will be the worst way to miss the playoff in such situation.
See link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
According to Hollinger's Playoff Odds as of today, he projected Rockets to be the 8th seed ahead of GSW and Denver Nuggets (I am surprised!). This is just a projection and should not take it too seriously but Hollinger's projection is still based on some facts and stats which in my opinion is better than some random opinions. The good thing about this projection is Hollinger tries to account for the strength of the schedule. Rockets has one of the toughest schedule in November, December and the schedule starts to soften in January, February. In fact, 2 games ago, when i checked the playoff odds, he projected Rockets at 10th after the loss to Celtics (same as conference standing). But after winning 2 games, Rockets is now projected at 8th. I will like to see what's the projection after another 8 games...
Another interesting observation, you might argue over the validity of such projection, but most experts will also agree that the 5 teams (Spurs, Suns, Mavs, Hornets, Lakers) are in very favourable positions and will most likely to make the playoff baring any disaster (like 2 or more of their key players missing a long stretch of the remaining schedule). That's leave only 3 spots for the remaining 5 teams (Jazz, Blazers, Rockets, Warriors, Nuggets). The projected wins for these 5 teams are very close to each other. Hence, wins/losses against these 5 teams will be critical in event of a tied in the win/loss column at the end of the season. It will be the worst way to miss the playoff in such situation.
See link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds