It's 2011,not 2010
Posted: Sun Jul 5, 2009 10:03 am
Morey brushes off any talk of 2010 FAs. I believe it's because he's looking at 2011,not 2010 for his big FA signing.
Some boring background stuff.
The Salary Cap-and Lux Tax-are determined are determined by using the previous yrs revenue and adding 4%. Much of a team's revenues are set in Spring and Summer-season tickets,corporate sponsorships,ad revenues,etc. When the economy tanked,most teams already had their revenues in,so this yr's Salary Cap is going to reflect the economy of the first half of last yr,not the reality of today.
But next yr-2010-unless there is a miracle recovery PDQ,the League revenues are going to be pretty poor. The League is hoping that the Salary Cap and Lux Tax will "only" decline 10%. That's going to put the Cap at $52/53mil and the Lux Tax $63/64mil.
For now we'll assume that there will not be a strike/lock-out when the CBA expires after the 2010/2011 season.
For 2010,if the Rockets only keep Yao,Battier,Ariza,Brooks and Landry,that's $36mil+ in salary,add the roster charges for having less than 12 players and the Rockets will only be some $12mil under a $52/53mil cap. Since Bosh,Wade and LeBron can get salaries starting at $16.5mil+ and Joe Johnson $15.7mil+,the Rockets cannot sign one of them unless Yao opts out and the Rockets renounce their rights to him.(If LeMarcus Aldridge of Portland doesn't sign his extension,look for the Rockets to make an offer.)
But in 2011,the only player under contract right now is Ariza and the Rockets should have plenty of room to make an offer for a Durrant,Fernandez,etc.
Over the last half of this past season the Rockets developed an identity. I believe the constant trade talks of last season have put Morey and Adelman in sync. Instead of building around stars and finding complementary players,the team is going to find players who fit their system.
The team will play a classic form of basketball-aggressive man defense,fast breaking at every opportunity and half-court sets that feature player/ball movement w/crisp,hard cuts,constant motion and willing passers.
Players we can expect the Rockets to go after will be athletic,willing to move the ball,have decent-to-good outside shots,willing to run and capable of moving their feet on D.(We'll prob get sick of hearing how the latest Rocket has a "high basketball IQ".)
This yr the team will try and steal a player or two from teams panicking over 2010. The Rockets will try and pick up another good,young player or two in 2010 at bargain prices. Then in 2011 it will look for that star who can take over games when it's needed.
This does not mean the Rockets are giving up on the next two seasons-they just are laying the foundation of great yrs to come. And they can reasonably expect to be make the Playoffs the next two yrs. If Tracy can come back this yr,he might give the boost for a modest Playoff run,while Yao offers the same hope for next yr.
(Have any of the 7 teams that missed the Playoffs made great strides this off-season? Doesn't NO have the feel of a team on the verge of collapsing? The common denominator for all these teams is they are poor defensively,whereas that has been a strength of the Rockets and is something the team considers part of its core identity.)
I believe the team now has a core philosophy,agreement from the coaches to the Front Office on the players they should try to get and an overall blueprint for the future.
Some boring background stuff.
The Salary Cap-and Lux Tax-are determined are determined by using the previous yrs revenue and adding 4%. Much of a team's revenues are set in Spring and Summer-season tickets,corporate sponsorships,ad revenues,etc. When the economy tanked,most teams already had their revenues in,so this yr's Salary Cap is going to reflect the economy of the first half of last yr,not the reality of today.
But next yr-2010-unless there is a miracle recovery PDQ,the League revenues are going to be pretty poor. The League is hoping that the Salary Cap and Lux Tax will "only" decline 10%. That's going to put the Cap at $52/53mil and the Lux Tax $63/64mil.
For now we'll assume that there will not be a strike/lock-out when the CBA expires after the 2010/2011 season.
For 2010,if the Rockets only keep Yao,Battier,Ariza,Brooks and Landry,that's $36mil+ in salary,add the roster charges for having less than 12 players and the Rockets will only be some $12mil under a $52/53mil cap. Since Bosh,Wade and LeBron can get salaries starting at $16.5mil+ and Joe Johnson $15.7mil+,the Rockets cannot sign one of them unless Yao opts out and the Rockets renounce their rights to him.(If LeMarcus Aldridge of Portland doesn't sign his extension,look for the Rockets to make an offer.)
But in 2011,the only player under contract right now is Ariza and the Rockets should have plenty of room to make an offer for a Durrant,Fernandez,etc.
Over the last half of this past season the Rockets developed an identity. I believe the constant trade talks of last season have put Morey and Adelman in sync. Instead of building around stars and finding complementary players,the team is going to find players who fit their system.
The team will play a classic form of basketball-aggressive man defense,fast breaking at every opportunity and half-court sets that feature player/ball movement w/crisp,hard cuts,constant motion and willing passers.
Players we can expect the Rockets to go after will be athletic,willing to move the ball,have decent-to-good outside shots,willing to run and capable of moving their feet on D.(We'll prob get sick of hearing how the latest Rocket has a "high basketball IQ".)
This yr the team will try and steal a player or two from teams panicking over 2010. The Rockets will try and pick up another good,young player or two in 2010 at bargain prices. Then in 2011 it will look for that star who can take over games when it's needed.
This does not mean the Rockets are giving up on the next two seasons-they just are laying the foundation of great yrs to come. And they can reasonably expect to be make the Playoffs the next two yrs. If Tracy can come back this yr,he might give the boost for a modest Playoff run,while Yao offers the same hope for next yr.
(Have any of the 7 teams that missed the Playoffs made great strides this off-season? Doesn't NO have the feel of a team on the verge of collapsing? The common denominator for all these teams is they are poor defensively,whereas that has been a strength of the Rockets and is something the team considers part of its core identity.)
I believe the team now has a core philosophy,agreement from the coaches to the Front Office on the players they should try to get and an overall blueprint for the future.
Scola and/or Landry I also agree with, though to a lesser extent. Probably Scola, on the pure basis of his age.