Win total guesses: Money in Mouth Time

[Ribalding]

OK.

We've all been waiting on the 1st regular season game. We're all fans. We all have our ideas.

But now is the time to put your keyboard where your mouth is.

Question 1: How many regular season games will the Rox win this year?

Question 2: Why?





C'mon, girls. Out with it.

[RoxFan08]

48-34.

Rox tread water until Tmac comes back in early December, going something like 17-15 through their first 30ish games.

Tmac comes back, and the Rockets play .600 ball the rest of the way and wind up with above record.

Brooks plays moderately well, but Lowry pushes him for the starting spot. Ariza plays mostly like he did in preseason, with slightly better defense and shooting percentages.

Scola plays like an all star, puts up 18/10 on 50% shooting.

Tmac returns and puts up 18/4/5 on 42% shooting, provides much needed playmaking, and actually plays some D.

The Rox are near the top of the league (top 10) in defensive efficiency, but play up tempo so idiots on this forum will think that because we give up 98 a game we are a bad defensive team.

[Ribalding]

Question 1: 43 wins. (10th seed.)

Question 2 (why?): The 1st two months of the Rox schedule is essentially a Herculean rape fantasy. It's nasty and un-winnable and even closing your eyes while you think of England isn't going to help. The rotation won't have to time to gel, they're catching hell right out of the gate, and they'll have less time to get their bearings than Britney at a Toby Keith concert.

No time to develop chemistry + nightly beatings = slow start.

...and to add insult to injury....

White rookie + Battier = Overly-intellectual fixation on 3 point shooting.

PLUS, in the 1st 3 months of the regular season, every Tom, Dick, and Memphis thinks they have a shot. Those sh****y teams sneak up on people. Meanwhile, every crappy coach in the league is going to tape "Took The Lakers To Seven" on the locker room wall of every Rockets opponent. So Our Beloved Rox ain't sneakin' up on nobody.

Not good.

But...the good news is DA and MENSA have profound upside. Brooks has crazy skills. And Scola's going to finally destroy the "pansy-Euro" meme. Basically, they'll compete every night. With not much "paid" talent and a world full of hustle, they'll Out Work most teams. It's appealing. Morey's put together the best cheap team since McGovern in '68.

PLUS they'll run a bit. That's nice.

The depressing, realistic news is 70% of the salary cap is in street clothes. (It's a credit to nerds that the Rox are even in the playoff discussion.)

Disagree?

Agree? Whadayagot? Bring it, people.





(But beware: this thread's getting resurrected at season's end...much like Tom Delay and/or herpes. Your sins will find you out on this one.)

[rocketsballin]

Question 1: 43 wins. (10th seed.)

Question 2 (why?): The 1st two months of the Rox schedule is essentially a Herculean rape fantasy. It's nasty and un-winnable and even closing your eyes while you think of England isn't going to help. The rotation won't have to time to gel, they're catching hell right out of the gate, and they'll have less time to get their bearings than Britney at a Toby Keith concert.
[i]
No time to develop chemistry + nightly beatings = slow start.

...and to add insult to injury....

White rookie + Battier = Overly-intellectual fixation on 3 point shooting.

PLUS, in the 1st 3 months of the regular season, every Tom, Dick, and Memphis thinks they have a shot. Those sh****y teams sneak up on people. Meanwhile, every crappy coach in the league is going to tape "Took The Lakers To Seven" on the locker room wall of every Rockets opponent. So Our Beloved Rox ain't sneakin' up on nobody.

hilarious

and david stern has to get over this preschool hate against us. i couldnt believe my eyes when i saw our first 3 games, then nov schedule. im like "well at least things get easy in december"... NOPE, thingss will get harder in december, if not the same exact mother **** thing .

every team is stacked, so wtf??? , why they gotta do us like that? **** up

and wtf, why we have the most back to back games? this is **** bull, stern wants pple to like him, then he needs to get that 12inch monster out his ****

[Mr. E]

45 wins. 9th seed in the West.

This is assuming that McGrady is a Rocket for the entire season. This could all change when/if he is traded before the deadline.

[RaoulDuke79]

The following post is inspired by Ribalding and this glorious thread:

The good news is that in the first month the Rockets only have to play 8 games at home so they can go on the road 7 times, and thankfully only 3 of those trips will be back-to-back games. Add that to the fact they are lucky to only face the Lakers twice, Dallas twice, and play such crappy teams as the Jazz, Spurs, and Suns, they should have an easy first month(as they typically always do!).

The better news is that the first 5 of those games to open the season are against such scrubs as the Blazers, Jazz, and Lakers. You can't ask for a much easier schedule. While crappy teams such as the Lakers are duking it out with the powerhouse teams of the league(such as Atlanta, OKC, Memphis, Houston and other amazing teams), they are disadvantaged by the fact they get to play the majority of those games at home and will get no real experience playing on the road, therefore allowing them to get off to an easy start and ruining their season! HAHA!

BUT WAIT, IT GETS EVEN EASIER IN DECEMBER! The Rockets get the luxury of playing 10 games on the road to only 6 at home, and against such meager teams as Portland, Cleveland(twice), Dallas(twice again), Denver, Orlando, and New Orleans!

With all the lucky breaks tossed into our schedule by Stern and Co., I see absolutely no reason that our lovable cast of overachievers cannot hang around until T-Mac comes back(and is promptly traded for someone good, at least if Ribalding gets his wish) and then proceed to the finish line hovering around the 45 win mark and just barely missing out on a playoff spot.

So, I'll say around 45 wins, missing out on the playoffs by a few games, but being entertaining to watch most nights even when they're getting the crap kicked out of them. Well, maybe not so much then, but most nights INDEED.

Go Rockets!



p.s: If by some miracle my dream of trading T-Mac after he comes back ballin', for a one Mr. Dwayne Wade, comes true, then I amend my original prediction of 45 wins and make it 60 and a dominant run through the playoffs to the championship and the beginning of a 10-year dynasty in which the Rockets reign supreme as the greatest basketball team ever assembled in the history of stuff.

[Ribalding]

...This is assuming that McGrady is a Rocket for the entire season.

One brave soul steps forward.

Who will join him?

[tisbee]

Before the Exhibition games I thought the team would win @45 games. The first unit isn't fast -breaking like they should,the D is suspect,the bigs are a huge problem,Scola's starting season on shaky ankle and there doesn't seem to be anybody who can score when it's needed-not just in crunch time,but to stop other team's rallies. But...
I believe the D will tighten,Morey is going to trade for a taller C-type and someone will find a way to score. and I'm hesitantly optimistic McGrady is coming back late Nov.

I'm going to stick w/@ 45 wins.
Early schedule is brutal and young teams historically struggle on the road. But there are some winnable games and Dallas doesn't look like a monster yet,Portland may be a little unsettled to start the season,so an upset is possible.
Thru first 20 games team' prob winning 7,8 games.
The schedule is pretty soft in late Jan,early Feb setting up a likely 5 game win streak,an 8 wins in 10 games streak,some kind of nice run. That streak and the early stretch should even out,say 30 games at .500.
Historically,teams that surround McGrady w/scrappy defenders and 3pt shooters win @ 55% of the games he plays.(W/out Yao in Houston,same winning percentage.) 55% of remaing 52 games is 28 wins and I just think this Rocket team is better than previous teams,for a couple of more wins.

[Guy986]

33 wins

This team will have trouble scoring day in and day out. Will and determination can only take you so far.

[jzmagik]

32 wins

[dream34]

39 wins.

The bad.
1. We will have a very slow start.
2. We will not trade for a quality center and continue to get beat inside against opponents with good big men.
3. Tracy comes back slow from his injury, and is inconsistent after you finally think 'he's back.'
4. Trevor Ariza does not live up to the expectations, if you think he's going to carry any offensive load that is.
5. A whole lot of fourth quarter meltdowns, due to the lack of a closer.

The good.
1. Carl Landry has a break out season.
2. We have a very exciting PG combo of Brooks and Lowry who both keep opponents on their toes.
3. Ariza and Battier will combine to be the best defensive wing combo in the NBA.
4. Chase and Pops will become fan favorites that we love to cheer for, even though their flaws are obvious.
5. John Wall sweepstakes.

[Guy986]

39 wins= no john wall. Its bad.

[spolgar]

This is just too much rampant speculation. This is too much fun.

Let's run down the list. Justification provided. Feel free to rebutt line item wise and I'll give you credit if I end up agreeing with you. Edits will be merged into this post. I don't have any hard numbers going off this stuff. This is what I am taking into account: Games I saw last year, transactions of players that I have noticed fare impressionably (favorably or not), coaching that I like versus whom I don't like and interesting +/- trends that I recall some players go on some teams. I did not take into account many many things, including first and foremost, strength of schedule. Assuming everyone played their best ball on everyday, this is how things I _guess_ will turn out.

Houston VS SW division:
New Orleans: They have Chris Paul, Okafor and David West. Matchup wise, defensively Houston's front court can matchup against most teams' front court and be effective. Houston's performance against NO will be entirely dependent upon how the back court handles Chris Paul. 2-2 Even

San Antonio: Duncan might have to work really hard for his points, but Shane has to stay on either Jefferson or Ginobli, and Parker is just too good. We don't have the firepower to answer in terms of points. If our point guards were better at controlling the pace, slowing the game down would hurt. But we don't have that personel. They'll sweep us. 0-4

Dallas: Dirk is really tall and long. Josh Howard is really long. Kidd is really long (comparatively). This is a roster that is blessed with height, range shooting, crisp passing and mismatch nightmares. They'll beat us most of the time. 1-3.

Memphis: This team can run. Houston can run. We play better defense but they can move a great deal of points. Chances are however Adelman can figure out a way to keep the damage of their scorers isolated by denying ball movement. Maybe we'll beat them 3-1 in the regular season.

6 wins, 10 losses within the division.

Houston VS Pacific division:
Lakers: We play them 4 times.
Lakers are a team that we know well. Houston matched up to them extremely well in the playoffs, but with Artest knowing most of the Rockets' plays and offense (he never seemed like he bothered to learn any of that but still) and us being over matched on the 5 and 2 spot, I can't see us doing better than one game in the entire regular season. 1-3

Clippers: We play them 3 times.
Baron Davis will get his if he's not injured. Blake Griffin, Eric Gordan, Kaman and Camby can be an exciting bunch. However, our coaching and team defense is superior, and they have people on their roster whom have made entire careers of sports writers pontificating when said players will play to their potenial, i.e. they'll gel slower than us. 2-1 perhaps.

Golden State: We play them 3 times.
They have more chemistry and crazy issues than a mad house with a bathtub full of ether. They'll do horribly against us. 2-1

Phoenix: We play them 4 times.
If we run with them, we lose. If we can make them play half court ball, Steve Nash's lack of lateral quickness will be exposed, as will Amare's lack of fundamentals in rebounding and team defense. 2-2

Sacramento: We play them 4 times.
This team is even more dysfunctional than the Warriors. Sweep. 4-0.

Total: 11-7

Houston VS Northwest division:
Utah:
Sloan et al has had Houston's number forever. You can stay with a Sloan team on Hustle, Guile, X&Os, but it is impossible to out do them on any three. Plus they are more talented than we are. 1-3.

Portland: We play them 4 games.
Andre Miller adds a degree of turbulence to that squad. If they added Hedo instead, I'd would have just called for the sweep, but now knowing that their high money ball handler is even more bothersome to handle than Rafer, this will affect the squad's over all performance. This up and coming squad could always be counted on to be serenely professional and patient. Now I don't know. 2-2

Denver: We play them 3 games.
They are far more talented offensively than the Rockets. However, can JR Smith and Melo stop anyone? Will they hope to conserve minutes on Nene and Martin in the regular season since they have glass legs? Will Chris Andersen be a factor defensively? The answers to the questions are: Maybe, Hopefully and Only on the weak side as a Jeff Foster-lite clone. We can take them on our home court if we play smart. 2-1

Minnesota: We play them 3 games.
This is an intriguing team. They have an intriguing front line, but are defensively lacking. Their points are young, inexperienced or scrubish. Could be good in 2 years. We'll take them 3-0 this year though.

Oklahoma:
Sweep. They are not there yet. 3-0

Total in NW: 11 wins 6 losses.

Total in Western Conference: 28 wins. 23 losses. This is actually not so bad all things considering.

Eastern Conference:

Houston VS Atlantic:
Boston: 0-2 This one could get ugly. In the regular season, craftiness can take on talent, but this is a veteran team now having both Garnett and Wallace. They are more talented and are somewhat more crafty.

New Jersey: 2-0 This roster has youth and will be fun to watch. They are thin on scoring though and they don't defend nearly as well. Lawrence Frank is also half the coach that Adelman is.

New York: 2-0 This roster is like New Jersey except they don't play _any_ defencse. This is a team where Houston's point guards can dictate the pace with a walk it up game.

Philly: 1-1 They lost their point, and Iggy will have headaches dealing with Shane Battier. Elton Brand will need to be in good form, but he always is against the rockets.

Toronto: 1-1 Bosh, Bargs and Hedo, with Calderon feeding them the ball is an insane matchup nightmare. However, Bosh/Bargs will have to bang with our bigs, which isn't pretty. Hedo will have to deal with Shane. This leaves Calderon as a match up issue with the 2nd unit being the x factors for both teams.

6 wins, 4 Losses

Houston VS Central:
Chicago: 0-2 Their scoring is superior, their point guard is awesome, and they've upgraded their 3 and 5 after swapping with Sactown last year. They play just as scrappy but they are more talented right now.

Cleveland: 0-2 Let's not even go here.

Detroit: 1-1 Detroit has better scoring, but their point is basically a slightly slower, more muscular version of our own. Their roster has also been somewhat depleted. In fact, I can argue that both teams have very similar rosters, so I say the series splits.

Indiana: 2-0 They are as talent depleted as we are, except that their roster is even younger.

Milwalkee: 2-0 They are not as talent depleted, but somehow this team has always found a way to lose.

5 wins, 5 Losses

Houston VS Southeast:
Atlanta: 2-0 Their point is slow, their frontline is athletic and versatile, but they don't defend well. They will try and run but Joe Johnson will meet Shane as Bibby will have to contend with Brooks. I'm pretty sure ScoLandry can take Josh Smith and co.

Charlotte: 2-0 No contest here. They've got a ways to go.

Miami: 2-0 Flash gets burned by Batman. Jermaine O'Neal doesn't have enough gas. Beasley will get bodied by the Cerberus of the low post.

Orlando: 0-2 This will be an interesting series. Dwight's lack of offensive repetoire will be exposed, as will his free throw shooting. However, I do think Lewis or Carter will take them over the top, even if Nelson and Brooks have it even, which I doubt will be the case.

Washington: 1-1 They don't play defense but they can absolutely shoot with Zero back in the line up. If the big three can manage to stay healthy, their supporting cast can be exciting to watch. However, Eddie Jordan is gone, so there will be some adjustment. You can't teach a team to play defense in one training camp either.

We'll go 7-3 here.

Grand total eastern conference: 18 wins 12 losses
Total wins and losses: 46 wins, 36 losses... 8th seed in the playoffs meeting the Lakers in the first round and get tarred and feathered by game 4.

[Teckon]

I like the division breakdown but will spare the details

SW: 6 wins
Pacific: 10 wins
NW: 10 wins
Altantic: 7 wins
Central: 5 wins
SE: 6 wins
Total: 44 wins
Fighting for 8th seed with Suns

[fisterkev]

Likley - 40 wins
Possible - 44-45 wins
Somewhat more likely than possible - 38 wins

In short, 38-45 wins. No, that's not exactly going out on a limb... But there's too much uncertainty to tell when you factor in TMac.

Without TMac at all I think they're a 40W team. With a good TMac they are 44-45W, possibly better than that. With a crappy TMac they will be a little worse than 40W.

I think this was a pretty good preseason. Everyone got a good workout, coach got a decent chance to see what he's got to work with. The only real surprise for me was the backseat that Scola took, which leaves me to wonder how good they can be with him fully active.

I was pleasantly surprised that this team appeared to be competetive even without Scola on the floor most times. I did not expect that to be the case. I know, it's preseason, the other teams are playing around with their mixes too, but I am still encouraged.

What will Brooks do? What will Scola accomplish? Will Anderson be a legit C? Was Ariza a bust or a steal? There are LOTS of questions surrounding these guys.

None bigger than this: Which Tracy McGrady will show up this season? Secondary to that: When?

My money: 42 wins.

[moofs]

I've already gone on with 45 wins (85% +-3, 15% +-6) and can't find my post. Don't feel like retyping why

If TMac is with us most of the season and healthy, I'll lean toward the higher end. If anyone gets hurt, lower end. Expectations based on relative healthiness.

Board seems torn between either 44-46 and 30-38 wins.
I'd love to see a Dwade swap, though I don't know how it'd work past next year.

[KiDdFrESh]

45 wins.. 8th seed.

[Julio]

Between 34 and 39.
Don't trust too much Tracy's health.

[Iggyemu]

I think McGrady will come back strong or at least I hope. I think we sneak in as the 8th seed with 45 wins. Probably better off tanking than being the 8th seed but we won't.

[Ribalding]

Bill Simmons is in at 44:

12. Daryl Morey
On paper, the Rockets look like a lottery team. Their best player (Yao) is gone for the year. Their second-best player is probably never going to be the same. Everyone else is a role player or an overachiever. But they do certain things really well: shoot threes, defend the hell out of perimeter guys, play unselfishly, pound the glass, stuff like that. It's one of those "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" teams. I am picking them to win 44 games and make the playoffs. Which brings me to my point: the '09 Rockets took the Lakers to a seventh game operating with half a salary cap (because Yao and T-Mac were out). The '10 Rockets start out with 80 percent of a cap because Yao is gone; that number might shrink if T-Mac can't successfully come back. And yet, I am still picking a hodgepodge group of non-All-Stars to win 44.

Why? Because of Morey (or as he's more affectionately known, Dork Elvis). He's been like a hot guy at a craps table for two solid years. Nobody else is nailing 85-90 percent of their moves big and small. Nobody. Since he's my friend, he's doing so well that I am starting to worry about a Bud Fox-like meltdown; right now he's at the point in "Wall Street" when the Talking Heads song is playing, his stock picks are hitting and he's decorating the fancy New York apartment with Daryl Hannah. We haven't gotten to the part when his ego swelled and he took on Gordon Gekko yet. And maybe that won't happen.

I just know this: He texted me last month that Chase Budinger was for real; two years ago, I would have mocked him. This year? I nodded. Absolutely. Chase Budinger. Why not? I have learned not to bet against Dork Elvis.