RealGM

So adding up all the current salaries for next season with Yao, Battier, Ariza, Martin, Jeffries, Budinger, Taylor, Brooks, Hayes, Hill and Andersen the Rockets payroll comes out to $60,426,193 and obviously Scola and Lowry will figure into new deals.

My question is will the Rockets have the MLE to use? What figure do we lose out on having the MLE, etc?

I figure we have room for a draft pick and either an MLE player or Garret Temple.

Since the Rockets' payroll will exceed the cap, the MLE will be available.

You don't think Lowry or Armstrong will accept their qualifying offers?

darn I was under the assumption that Armstrong was only under contract this season.

Fobbie wrote:darn I was under the assumption that Armstrong was only under contract this season.

Qualifying offer is given to player to make them Restricted Free Agent (RFA). If Rockets have no intention to retain Armstrong, the Armstrong's contract expired end of this season. Lowry is also in the same boat but Rockets will definitely give him a qualifying offer to make him a RFA. The qualifying offer should not be calculated as part of the salary. Instead a caphold (approximately 3 times his previous salary in Lowry's case) should be used in cap room calculation since cap hold is a better estimate.

For cap room calculation:
Scola's cap hold is around $6.77M
Lowry's cap hold is around $6.10M

If Rockets can resign Scola and Lowry for less than their total cap hold of ($12.87M) then the highest total salary for Rockets in 2010-11 will be $65.6M plus salaries of 1st and 2nd round picks plus MLE salary if Rockets utilize to sign additional player (but that mean 16 players in total and one have to be traded away and his salary off the book).

Rockets traded their 2010 2nd rd. pick for David Andersen.

I guess they could pick up one for cash but it would exceed the roster beyond 15 if they use the MLE on someone.

Moreyball wrote:Rockets traded their 2010 2nd rd. pick for David Andersen.

I guess they could pick up one for cash but it would exceed the roster beyond 15 if they use the MLE on someone.

While i was calculating the 2010-11 salaries, I realize there maybe some roster spot constraints. If Rockets were to resign Scola and Lowry as Morey had said, given the contracts situation and roster constraint, Rockets likely to:

1. just have sign 1st round pick and no 2nd round pick (but Morey is so good with 2nd round pick and draft picks are cheapest way to get quality player)
2. make a trade for a tier 1 FA (shipping out more player than incoming players) or trade the 1st round pick in part of the trade for the tier 1 FA
3. Do not utilize the MLE to add additional player

I see Option 2 seem most likely to happen.

Teckon wrote:

Fobbie wrote:darn I was under the assumption that Armstrong was only under contract this season.

Qualifying offer is given to player to make them Restricted Free Agent (RFA). If Rockets have no intention to retain Armstrong, the Armstrong's contract expired end of this season. Lowry is also in the same boat but Rockets will definitely give him a qualifying offer to make him a RFA. The qualifying offer should not be calculated as part of the salary. Instead a caphold (approximately 3 times his previous salary in Lowry's case) should be used in cap room calculation since cap hold is a better estimate.

For cap room calculation:
Scola's cap hold is around $6.77M
Lowry's cap hold is around $6.10M

If Rockets can resign Scola and Lowry for less than their total cap hold of ($12.87M) then the highest total salary for Rockets in 2010-11 will be $65.6M plus salaries of 1st and 2nd round picks plus MLE salary if Rockets utilize to sign additional player (but that mean 16 players in total and one have to be traded away and his salary off the book).

I don't get this 3x stuff...how come it says lowry's salary for 2010/2011 is about 3 million: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm

I admit I don't know much about a qualifying offer. I always assumed it was like a player option (the only difference being the player would become a restricted free agent if they rejected it).

Also, when you said Scola did you mean Armstrong?

Virus4762 wrote:I don't get this 3x stuff...how come it says lowry's salary for 2010/2011 is about 3 million: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm

I admit I don't know much about a qualifying offer. I always assumed it was like a player option (the only difference being the player would become a restricted free agent if they rejected it).

Also, when you said Scola did you mean Armstrong?

Every expiring contracts have some cap holds (cap hold limits varies in different situation) until the team renounce it. Both Scola and Lowry are RFA and hence the team have to include their cap holds when determine the cap room available.

The $3million is the qualify offer for Lowry as Lowry is on a rookie contract. By extending a qualifying offer to a FA that is expiring from a rookie salary contract, the team make that player a RFA.

I am prefering to Scola not Armstrong. I didnot include any scenario for Armstrong as I had assumed he would not be resigned and his rights will be renounced (hence no cap hold).

Teckon wrote:

Virus4762 wrote:I don't get this 3x stuff...how come it says lowry's salary for 2010/2011 is about 3 million: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm

I admit I don't know much about a qualifying offer. I always assumed it was like a player option (the only difference being the player would become a restricted free agent if they rejected it).

Also, when you said Scola did you mean Armstrong?

Every expiring contracts have some cap holds (cap hold limits varies in different situation) until the team renounce it. Both Scola and Lowry are RFA and hence the team have to include their cap holds when determine the cap room available.

The $3million is the qualify offer for Lowry as Lowry is on a rookie contract. By extending a qualifying offer to a FA that is expiring from a rookie salary contract, the team make that player a RFA.

I am prefering to Scola not Armstrong. I didnot include any scenario for Armstrong as I had assumed he would not be resigned and his rights will be renounced (hence no cap hold).

So there is a 100% chance Lowry will become an RFA? He can't just accept to play for the 3 million next season and forego becoming an RFA? Qualifying offers are only ever from rookie contracts? Under what conditions do veteran NBA players become RFAs?

Virus4762 wrote:So there is a 100% chance Lowry will become an RFA? He can't just accept to play for the 3 million next season and forego becoming an RFA? Qualifying offers are only ever from rookie contracts? Under what conditions do veteran NBA players become RFAs?

It is logical to think Lowry and his agent will try to maximize the contract Lowry can get and hence logically to believe Lowry will not accept the $ 3M qualifying offer. There are teams interested in lowry. Clippers had asked for Lowry when Rockets attempted to trade for Cambry. Also note that Qualifying offer is only for 1 season.
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q36

Restricted free agency exists only on a limited basis. It is allowed following the fourth year of rookie "scale" contracts for first round draft picks. It is also allowed for all veteran free agents who have been in the league three or fewer seasons. However, a first round draft pick becomes an unrestricted free agent following his second or third season if his team does not exercise its option to extend the player's rookie scale contract for the next season. All other free agency is limited to unrestricted free agency.

In order to make their free agent a restricted free agent, a team must submit a qualifying offer to the player by June 30. This prevents the team from not offering a contract and waiting to swoop in when the player tries to sign elsewhere. The qualifying offer ensures that the team does not gain the right of first refusal without also offering a contract themselves. The amount of the qualifying offer for players on rookie "scale" contracts is based on the player's draft position

Somebody may come at Lowry with the full MLE (approx 5.5 mil ish). For instance, it widely speculated on the Laker board that they will use the MLE on a new PG, first chasing RFA's Foye or Lowry. Would Houston match?

Yao,Martin,Jeffries,Battier,Ariza,Hill,Andersen,Brooks,Budinger and Taylor will have @ $58,670mil in saleries next season(w/the $1mil Jeffries trade kicker). That will be far over the Salary Cap and the Rockets will have their MLE and the Biannual Exceptions to use.

The team has an option on Hayes and Resstricted FAs in Lowry and Scola. The three just happen to be the back-up Center,the Starting PF and the only back-up PG on the team,all rather critical roles.
If the team excercises Hayes' option and signs Lowry to @ $4mil and signs their First Rd pick they'll be coming close to $66mil in salaries,just about where the Lux Tax is expected next yr. Which means whatever Scola signs for is going to cost double because of the Lux Tax,ie,he gets $6mil,it'll cost $12mil,$7mil becomes $14mil. I just don't think the Rockets are willing to pay that much for a player whose coach sits him in crunch time. I could easily see the Rockets letting him go,and either starting Andersen for his shooting/spacing for Yao or Jeffries for his rebounding/D and developing Hill and the First Rd ala Landry.

But a salary dump of Battier-or Jeffries-changes a lot. Battier could very well be moved after July 1 for a First to a team w/cap space,particularly Miami or the Clippers,both of whom have extra 2010 Firsts. Battier would be esp valuable for Clips as SF is the position they really don't have a starter for and as he doesn't need shots to be effective he'd fit in well w/the rest of the team.(Plus the PR from getting a "Kobe-stopper" would be worthwhile.) To unload Jeffries the Rox would have to include a pick.

Trading Jeffries would be the preferred option and a trade to OKC might just be the way. Jeffries,$3mil and the lesser of the 2012 Firsts to OKC for a $7.8mil TPE.(His $2mil trade kicker gets spread over the two yrs of his contract for cap purposes. And I'm assuming the Rockets pay it all before trading him.) OKC can then turn around and trade him,the cash they got from Hou,one of their just drafted 2010 Firsts and the Rocket pick they got to GS for Biedrins. OKC ends up w/a legitimate C who fits w/what they want,GS gets draft picks and major salary relief for a player their coach has soured on.

The point is,by trading away Battier or Jeffries in a salary dump the Rox will be able to keep Lowry,Scola,Hayes and add a vet min or a rookie on Bud/JT type deal.

Didn't Morey state that Scola will be resigned?

So yes, the Rockets would match a full MLE offer on Lowry?

Also, the Clippers do not have 2 1sts. The second one is Minny top 10 protected (no chance of that going to LAC this year).

daddyfivestar wrote:So yes, the Rockets would match a full MLE offer on Lowry?

Also, the Clippers do not have 2 1sts. The second one is Minny top 10 protected (no chance of that going to LAC this year).

I would hope so. Many of us want Lowry to start ahead of Brooks....

daddyfivestar,
The Minn pick is protected for next two yrs,and is unprotected in 2012. It's still available for a trade,and the main purpose of trading away Shane would be salary relief. Ask Utah just how valuable a pick that won't be unprotected for yrs can be.

Re Lowry and a MLE offer. The Rockets would almost have to match. Unless they plan on having a min vet/rookie backing up Brooks signing Lowry has to be the team's priority.

Moofs,
The team has said alot of things they may have meant at time,but didn't follow thru on. Remember the Rockets weren't going to sign Landry until he was medically checked out? Or the statements on how money was going to be no object in re-signing Ron? Remember the trade Morey was sure he was going to make last summer?

I don't think there is a chance Houston lets Scola and Lowry go for nothing. They are key parts of the team. And the organization has to be REALLY high on Scola because of the willingness to trade Landry who was under a very good contract for another season. This also shows they have faith that Scola can handle more mpg and more responsibilities on the court.

Its also obvious how important Lowry is because of our hideous record without him. Anybody know what it is?


As the trading deadline approached, there were numerous articles stating that the Les Alexander was fine with the idea of taking on long term salary. Morey and him sat down and figured out how much the team was willing to spend to put together a championship team next year around Yao. And I'm sure Les gave him a # he could spend while knowing that two very key components would need to be re-signed in the off-season.

This is what I expect to happen after this season.

Armstrong will be waived immediately. I expect the team to pick up the team options of Hayes, Brooks. Leaving Houston with the following players with guaranteed contracts.

1.) Yao
2.) Brooks
3.) Ariza
4.) Battier
5.) Budinger
6.) Taylor
7.) Hayes
8.) Jefferies
9.) Andersen
10.) Hill
11.) Martin
12.) 2010 1st Round Pick

Cap & Roster Holds for:

13.) Scola
14.) Lowry

This will make for a very interesting summer. Morey will have plenty of options.

First is the draft, we will likely have a lotto pick or if we make the playoffs it would be in late teens I believe. We do not have any 2nd Round draft picks but who is to say we won't purchase picks like last year. This is suppose to be a deep draft so I'm positive Morey can find a gem or two!

Sign & Trade for a FA. His #1 target should be Chris Bosh. I can see the Rockets trading multiple young players, expiring contracts, & draft picks for him. Get irr done. With the Rockets being a win-now team. I think it is more likely Hill goes in a trade and Scola becomes the 1st big off the bench.

i finish later my son woke up now i cant type

If the Rockets are pretty certain they can get Bosh-or,shuddering,Amare-there's no reason to sign Scola.
The same financial issues w/signing Scola apply to any player he would be sign-n-traded for. The Rockets would have a player getting $5-7mil who effectively costs them $10-12mil. We tend to forget Morey's background and I seriously doubt he sees value in effectively paying near max money for a non-impact player.
Remember all the time we wasted on thinking the Rockets wouldn't just let Artest walk w/out getting something? Well,he let Artest walk,and he did so before knowing if League would grant an exception for Yao and not knowing whether or not Ariza would accept LA's offer.

Any trade for Bosh would involve Jeffries and either Ariza or Battier. Scola is unlikely to be included because if he's signed for more than $4mil he becomes a BYC player and it's unlikely Toronto would take on extra salary when dumping Bosh.

If the Rockets think they can contend for a championship w/Scola starting next to Yao then yes I can see Les spending the money. But do they? I don't think so,so I have strong doubts Scola will be back in Houston next season. Feigen,who's sources are in the management side,when he's commenting on who the Rockets like,other than Joe Johnson it's always been young PFs-Aldridge,Randolph,etc.

Tisbee, if you ever wonder why I don't propose trades etc etc, it's for the exact reasons in your post above. If your GM is smart, he'll do things you never could have seen because you couldn't have possibly known the angles used, and the media will only be used for smokescreens (like they were this trade deadline). If he's bad, he'll do things that make you shake your head for years. (sorry, NY)

What you said is entirely possible, so we'll see. He did chuckle repeatedly at how we're "going to be well into the tax next year"