Draft Talk

[ajaX82]

Wow that's odd that they would want to have a visit with the consensus 3rd or 4th best WR in the draft when others on this board clearly ruled out that it would be impossible to consider a guy like Julio Jones with the 13th pick who might be the best WR in the draft and possibly the best offensive weapon that we could add.

We're not going to draft Smith in the first round, so I'm not sure what your point is. We all agree that we need a better #3 receiver, the rest of us just understand what a terrible decision it would be to do that in the first round

My point was towards the guys on this board that said it was impossible to take a WR with the 13th pick. If they are going to take a WR with the 2nd round pick, then why is it such a leap to consider using one round higher that it would be impossible? Plus, Torrey Smith is considered by many to go as the 3rd WR so it seems completely unlikely that the Lions could get him with the Rd 2 pick, so we would have to trade up to something that is more valuable than a RD 2 pick, but yet not as high as the 13th overall pick? Not a lot of gap there is my point, so I'm just trying to make fun of the people who illogically have removed Julio Jones as having ANY possible chance at being the 13th pick to the Lions if for some reason he fell to that spot. I'm saying the Lions wouldn't be able to turn that card in fast enough if Jones dropped to them, yet those guys have said 0% chance, and that's worth bringing up to me because it's so incredulous to say that.

I would be one of those guys and yes it is not in the realm of possibility to draft Jones at 13. It will not happen, 0% chance. If anything, Jones dropping to 13 could help us trade back. St. Louis would love to get him at 14, so him being there makes us a very attractive trade partner.

[TSE]

I also believe the chance that the Lions trade up to draft Julio Jones is greater than 0%, albeit unlikely, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did it if the price was cheap, or for AJ Green, whichever one doesn't get drafted first.

[kellmellus50]

Tse i agree with you lions could draft JJ at 13 and if they do everybody on this board will have to eat crow !!!. Ajax # 1 to start.

[TSE]

Yep. We have a QB, and Ingram would be nice but you can't get the same value with a RB2 as you can a WR2. And it would be ok to get a guy like OT Tyron Smith or possibly Castonzo, but there's just way too many flags and concerns and I don't know that either of those rookies can outplay Backus, so no harm to me in waiting 'til next year to draft a new OT or get a FA OT by then or by trade some other way.

That leaves AJ Green and Julio Jones as the 2 money players in this draft on the offensive side of the ball that I desire the most. I'm shocked that others on the board can't see that there are no other players on offense in this draft that could vastly improve our offense as much as those 2 potentially can. Do I need to bring in SNL's "what's up with that" guy to analyze this further? lol

And since there will likely not be any DBs or LBs worth looking at for number 13, to me it's a no-brainer to get a super premium prospect to complement our best player on offense, CJ, or our best player on defense, Suh. So I'm looking for any angle to get a stud like one of those 2 WRs, or trade up for one of the 2 stud DTs in Fairley or Dareus. Basically that's my board of top 4 targets and I would simply say we should just trade up for the guy of that group that gets picked 4th (when draft day comes I'm just going to be rooting for every pick to not be one of those 4 names). Otherwise we highly consider the best DE left, maybe Quinn or Bowers can drop to us, or perhaps Kerrigan could be our option of last resort. Those are about the only 7 guys I'm thinking about right now. (just cause the top 2 CBs are obvious and already popular considerations so no need to bring attention there, because of the more obvious need at that position) God this stuff is so easy.

[ajaX82]

Tse i agree with you lions could draft JJ at 13 and if they do everybody on this board will have to eat crow !!!. Ajax # 1 to start.

If we draft JJ at 13 I will more than gladly accept that I was 100% wrong and an idiot. I'll own that. absolutely

Just like you will need to accept that when we don't take him at 13 that you were wrong.

[TSE]

Well you can't hold it against us if we trade the pick, 'cause what I'm claiming is that if JJ is there at 13 that Mayhew will have him as the #1 player on his board, but that doesn't mean that a trade opportunity can't be worth more than taking your presently available #1 player, cause every single trade in the draft is made where the team on the clock must forego the choice to take their current #1 remaining player.

So IF JJ is there at 13, and the Lions make a pick, and it's not JJ or one of the following if there is a surprise shocking drop (Fairley/Dareus, AJ Green obviously, Peterson/Akamura, Quinn/Bowers) then I too will be willing to eat crow and claim that I'm an idiot. I'm double contending for JJ to be the BPA there as well as Mayhew's chosen BPA. And you don't have to worry about the guys in the parentheses because if JJ surprisingly drops, then that would make it even more extremely unlikely for any of those guys to also still be there.

So, assuming the qualifying conditions are present for one of us to be right or wrong on that, any interesting wagers you would like to make? But it has to be something that is profitable in some way to make it interesting and worthwhile, I'll be more than happy to make some kind of wager on that circumstance. Obviously though there would have to be complete proper definitions, cause there could still be a freak thing happen like Stafford gets traded so we have to take a QB if a CBA deal is in place by then or what not.

[kellmellus50]

Tse i agree with you lions could draft JJ at 13 and if they do everybody on this board will have to eat crow !!!. Ajax # 1 to start.

If we draft JJ at 13 I will more than gladly accept that I was 100% wrong and an idiot. I'll own that. absolutely

Just like you will need to accept that when we don't take him at 13 that you were wrong.

Ajax you don't get it ? you said 0% that the lions will draft JJ (ok )
if they draft him you were wrong and have to eat crow.

I said and TSE said they could draft JJ at 13 if he's there , Were (not saying 100%) so if they don't draft him at 13 we don't have to say were wrong because were not. Of course they could draft someone else or trade down were not the one's ruling out everything.

[TSE]

Yeah that's why I ruled out all the other logical players that could be drafted over him as I don't see really anybody else that could go that high besides those 2 DEs or Akamura as guys that could possibly drop that might still make sense to choose over him. The parameters of my bet aren't necessarily a 100% guarantee from my end, but they are way in my favor and close enough that I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.

[TSE]

Also, I wrote a post on another site where somebody was harping on me for wanting to take a DL player with the 13th pick, and so he asked me what I would do if I was the DC to get value out of loading up on that positional unit, so here's my reply which does help understand more of my perspective and rationale behind why I REALLY want to get Fairley or Dareus really bad, or possibly an elite DE to supplement our line....

As for the DT concern you have, well part of my rationale is that I hate our defensive scheme with our crappy LB units, so if we take ANY DL in the first round that gives us great depth chart to use a base 5-2 defense which I think would VASTLY improve our defense. That doesnt mean we run a 5-2 every play, but we use it as our base, which takes a LB off the field for an extra DL. We could have nearly 10 DLs worth keeping on the roster, so it would be perfect. I don't know about Gunther and dont trust him for much, but if i was the DC and I got one of the top DLs with the 13th pick, I'm telling you our defense would dominate under my plan in a 5-2 set after I get these guys coached up with proper football logic....

...Also, Delmas and Coleman at S would love this system too. They aren't deep territory FS ballhawk types like an Ed Reed. Reed has a 54-10 INT to FF ratio in his career, and Delmas is 2-2, and Coleman is 10-4. Granted the sample sizes aren't fair to compare, but the point is that Delmas is more of a physical enforcer and would end up playing more of a short game than a long game. Our CBs also on average are more of physical players than INT machines or PD machines, and they would be swell for this as well. Delmas would go from a marginal safety to a high impact extremely valuable safety and would be on a tear in this new system. We have nearly a perfect 11 man unit to fit in this style more than any other style, and we would gain efficiencies instead of taking on handicaps, and that would cause more TOs for our team and less yards per play. No doubt about it, especially with the help of cutting down on long deep passes that wouldn't develop as often, and those are arguably the most efficient YPA play and dangerous play an offense can dial up on average.

[ajaX82]

Well you can't hold it against us if we trade the pick, 'cause what I'm claiming is that if JJ is there at 13 that Mayhew will have him as the #1 player on his board, but that doesn't mean that a trade opportunity can't be worth more than taking your presently available #1 player, cause every single trade in the draft is made where the team on the clock must forego the choice to take their current #1 remaining player.

So IF JJ is there at 13, and the Lions make a pick, and it's not JJ or one of the following if there is a surprise shocking drop (Fairley/Dareus, AJ Green obviously, Peterson/Akamura, Quinn/Bowers) then I too will be willing to eat crow and claim that I'm an idiot. I'm double contending for JJ to be the BPA there as well as Mayhew's chosen BPA. And you don't have to worry about the guys in the parentheses because if JJ surprisingly drops, then that would make it even more extremely unlikely for any of those guys to also still be there.

So, assuming the qualifying conditions are present for one of us to be right or wrong on that, any interesting wagers you would like to make? But it has to be something that is profitable in some way to make it interesting and worthwhile, I'll be more than happy to make some kind of wager on that circumstance. Obviously though there would have to be complete proper definitions, cause there could still be a freak thing happen like Stafford gets traded so we have to take a QB if a CBA deal is in place by then or what not.

There isn't a wager to be made, its just chat man. I don't know how we would do it, nor do I really want to. Lets just say if your predictions come true draft day you can feel better and if mine do I can feel better.

Ajax you don't get it ? you said 0% that the lions will draft JJ (ok )
if they draft him you were wrong and have to eat crow.

I said and TSE said they could draft JJ at 13 if he's there , Were (not saying 100%) so if they don't draft him at 13 we don't have to say were wrong because were not. Of course they could draft someone else or trade down were not the one's ruling out everything.

No I get it. It's a great situation for you in that you cannot lose. If we did take Julio Jones, you say "I told you so." If we don't, you just say it was always just a possibility you couldn't rule out. So, again, you can't lose.

It's fine, believe what you want. If you guys want to believe the Lions are scouting QBs and WRs as first round targets, be my guest. You're just living in a fantasy world.



Anywho, lets put aside the silliness and actually talk draft prospects.

[TSE]

Ok, well I won't feel any better or worse if we take Julio Jones or don't take him, I'll only feel better when we win a SB like we should have done by now. That's the only thing that really matters. Which is why we just shouldn't pass on JJ if he's there, cause nobody else on offense can do more for us on that side of the ball than an elite WR, which we need badly, we have a gaping hole at WR2 that is bigger than any other single offensive position. It's the biggest weakness such that an investment there will yield the greatest ROI to our total yards gained and points scored. What's wrong with wanting that? And I don't need to see a draft result to know that I'm right about what i believe about my football philosophies, it's a sure thing for me, so I'm content and secure with how I feel about this issue.

[kellmellus50]

Here's the reason drafting Julio Jones is so important ,incase either one of their other 2 recievers goes down with an injury during the season they have to have a player step up that where Julio Jones steps comes in to save the season.Also Julio Jones will end up being our best slot 2 reciever .

The Lions got by with Megatron and everyone else. They could add a valuable #2 receiver here in Jones. Certainly plausible that Jones could go off the board here, especially if a WR hungry team attempts to jump the Rams to get Jones.

It seems like every years Detroit takes a big name WR so why should this be different. Actually I think this is a good pick for them. Give Stafford more than ONE option, and get a very good WR matched up one on one when the entire defense is covering Calvin Johnson.

13. Detroit Lions select Julio Jones, WR, Alabama. . Imagine Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones on the same team! The Lions would have one of the top receiving corps in the league.

[TSE]

That is a good point. If you have an extra good QB, you only have ONE QB that could go down or get hurt. Same with RB or TE cause you only primarily rely on one. But WR you always have 2 guys out there making big contributions so it's twice the insurance protection for the offensive skill positions. Even with OT if you have a backup OT, then you have to hope he can play both positions otherwise you really are just protecting for one with each backup OT. So not only do we have a gaping hole at a major position of importance, the WR2, and not only is that the most important offensive hole to fill, but we also get injury protection for BOTH CJ and Burleson simultaneously. Good point Kell.

[Piston Pete]

Rather us trade up for Patrick Peterson than draft another WR.

[TSE]

As would I. Here's my top 8 on my board for right now:

Group 1:
CB Peterson
DT Fairley
DT Dareus

(possibly prefer to trade up for who gets picked last of these 3 if big savings in price, as well as if we can get rid of a DT like Corey Williams in a good trade might change things)

Group 2:
CB Amukamara
WR Green
WR Jones

(possibly prefer to trade up for the last of these 3, unless we can simply pick one of the 2 DEs below for no cost, but haven't firmly decided as I haven't scouted the DEs)

Group 3:
DE Bowers and DE Quinn

(haven't scouted to pick between them cause only one of them could luckily drop to us anyhow, and my priority is the other positions, also any takers for KVB or another DE in trade?)

Anybody feel free to pick apart the order of my top 8, or even adjust my columns if you have alternate suggestions.

[kellmellus50]

Quote:The Lions' lockout preparations last year included signing three pending free agents to long-term deals: left guard Rob Sims, tight end Tony Scheffler and backup QB Shaun Hill.

Those moves ensured the Lions' biggest offensive needs this off-season would be at No. 3 receiver and backup running back

http://www.freep.com/article/20110322/S ... ext|Sports

[Piston Pete]

I'm not nearly as concerned about finding us a #3 WR or backup RB as I am with filling out our defense. We have HUGE holes at LB, CB, and S.

A #3 WR and backup RB (not to mention possibly keeping Morris) can be had in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft.

[TSE]

The article didn't say that Schwartz said those were our needs, that's just the inference that the article writer is making. A rookie WR isn't generally expected to be the #2 best WR immediately, they would be leaning on the veteran Burleson more in the short-term, and over time that WR draft pick will hopefully grow and develop to being the 2nd best WR on the team. So if you are looking at the long-term picture, the Lions should be imagining Burleson as the 3rd best, so he would be our 2nd best only until the point that the other guy proves that he is better. Thus for opening day, Burleson is our #2, but by the playoff time or for all future years, that WR3 spot should be taken over by him. This means that if we draft a WR, we should be looking at that draft pick as a #2 WR in order to use Burleson to account for being the 3rd best WR.

And Best is obviously our #1 RB, but if the Lions did something unusual and selected Mark Ingram, then Ingram could just as well become our starter, and Best could be a 3rd down back. After all, Ingram would be a 13th pick, and Best was a 30th pick. It wouldn't be the first time that a team used a late first rounder on a backup RB or 3rd down back, or to have 2 huge value RBs.

Also, you mentioned 3 huge holes on defense. Well do you like any LB or S with the 13th pick? How about CB if Peterson and Akamura are gone? Looks like those 3 positions aren't likely in the cards for the 13th pick to me! You have to take a DL or an offensive player, that's all that's left to choose from. Just show us your 8 man board like I did, or a 13 man board so we know what guys you think we should draft, assuming we have to make a pick at 13?

[TSE]

Group 1:
CB Peterson
DT Fairley
DT Dareus

Just saw on ESPN today that Kiper's big board has the exact same top 3 overall in order as I have them for our team. That's either really encouraging or really discouraging, I can't decide! lol

[Bartender]

As would I. Here's my top 8 on my board for right now:

Group 1:
CB Peterson
DT Fairley
DT Dareus

(possibly prefer to trade up for who gets picked last of these 3 if big savings in price, as well as if we can get rid of a DT like Corey Williams in a good trade might change things)

Group 2:
CB Akamura
WR Green
WR Jones

(possibly prefer to trade up for the last of these 3, unless we can simply pick one of the 2 DEs below for no cost, but haven't firmly decided as I haven't scouted the DEs)

Group 3:
DE Bowers and DE Quinn

(haven't scouted to pick between them cause only one of them could luckily drop to us anyhow, and my priority is the other positions, also any takers for KVB or another DE in trade?)

Anybody feel free to pick apart the order of my top 8, or even adjust my columns if you have alternate suggestions.

It's Amukamara. I hope you never work for the team cuz you'll be just as bad as the people that mix up colleges that the players play for.


As for the list, if we trade up for Dareus or Fairley, I'm going to be livid. We have no need for another DT. Corey Williams is a pure pass rusher and SLH is getting better every year and is our best run stopper. We already have the best DT rotation in the NFL.

My top 8 would look something like this:
1. Patrick Peterson
2. Robert Quinn
3. AJ Green
4. Da'Quan Bowers
5. Prince Amukamara
6. JJ Watt
7. Julio Jones
8. Mark Ingram