Draft Talk

[TSE]

Patrick Peterson has none of the concerns you listed. If you wanna make a case for it being too early and expensive for a corner, I could partially buy that. But I think he is far and away the best player in the draft, and thats who you should pick #1. Especially if you have a need there (and Carolina needs a CB).

Yeah PP disqualifies on positional value, but also stats. He didn't have fantastic stats in college commensurate with a #1 overall pick in the draft.

Plus, part of drafting has nothing to do with the players themselves, rather the perception of those players by other teams. And if you have a strong belief that teams in that 2-4 spot won't take him, then you are still a fool for taking that player #1 and not figuring out how to trade down. Even if you only got a 7th rounder from some team, it's better to have that 7th rounder, plus the cost savings, while still getting PP as opposed to simply draft PP at 1. Option 1 is better, plus has the potential for a lot more profit than just that 7th, therefore option 2 is D'Qd as a consideration. Scratch PP off the list.

And so on and so on until Cam is the only name left in the draft that you can't scratch off as logically as you can with the rest.

[ajaX82]

Patrick Peterson has none of the concerns you listed. If you wanna make a case for it being too early and expensive for a corner, I could partially buy that. But I think he is far and away the best player in the draft, and thats who you should pick #1. Especially if you have a need there (and Carolina needs a CB).

Yeah PP disqualifies on positional value, but also stats. He didn't have fantastic stats in college commensurate with a #1 overall pick in the draft.

Plus, part of drafting has nothing to do with the players themselves, rather the perception of those players by other teams. And if you have a strong belief that teams in that 2-4 spot won't take him, then you are still a fool for taking that player #1 and not figuring out how to trade down. Even if you only got a 7th rounder from some team, it's better to have that 7th rounder, plus the cost savings, while still getting PP as opposed to simply draft PP at 1. Option 1 is better, plus has the potential for a lot more profit than just that 7th, therefore option 2 is D'Qd as a consideration.

I think his stats are low because teams did not throw at him. I didn't really watch LSU though so I'm not positive.

Positional value doesn't do it for me either, because an elite corner is so big to have now. What team doesn't wish they had taken Revis back a few years ago? Having a guy like that or Nnamdi, who literally take the other teams top guy completely out of the picture...it's huge.

And while I agree on trading down, nobody in the top-10 wants to move up this year because of the money. Nobody. I know you will claim shenanigans but it just isn't realistic

[TSE]

Peterson is unattainable, because Houston is desperate to get him and they have more ammo.

It looks like the pick is either Amukamara, Castonzo, or Bowers. If it's the latter two, expect them to try very hard to move backwards and pick up an extra mid-rounder.

I was in Detroit over the weekend and the one really good tip I got was: look at Titus Young in the 2nd round. Wish I had more but this is a real strange year.

I really worry about Bowers and that knee. Stuff like that just scares me. At this point I am fine with Castonzo in the first, pretty fine with Prince too. I feel like a decent CB may slip to the second where we pick though, making Castonzo possibly a better pick because you can grab a CB later. I feel like all the good tackles will be gone by our second pick.

Titus Young is intriguing, but second round WR is a little iffy for me.

With only 2 CBs for sure in the first round and gone possibly by pick 10, you are going to probably find a late first/early 2nd run on CBs. So just about the time our 2nd Rd pick comes up, all the possible 2nd round CBs will have just left the pool. You couldn't find another pick slot in the draft that is more unfavorable for us landing a CB in the first 2 rounds. Drop us lower and we can take one in the first, push us higher and we can get one in the 2nd if we can't get one of the top 2, but at 13 we are in CB no-man's land. I still say we shouldn't spend one pick on a CB this year, and just target FA which is ripe with CBs right now. And when the rest of the NFL drafts a ton of CBs, our competition to sign those FAs will shrivel up considerable, making us a more attractive spot to lure those FAs as well as cost us less to bid for them. I would consider it a major victory if we could look at our entire draft and see no CBs on the list, that would be great strategy imo.

[TSE]

I think his stats are low because teams did not throw at him. I didn't really watch LSU though so I'm not positive.

That's kind of a myth though. Every elite college CB in history that did have great stats, how did they get them then? Why would those teams throw to that guy when that guy might have been perceived the same or better than PP? Almost every single draft, the top 20 CBs in that draft are the clear cut #1 CBs of that team. Every opponent knows that and naturally tries to stay away from those guys.

And on the trade down, yep I call shenanigans. I don't care what other teams think or need or want for purposes of knowing what I want and what I'm going to do, I'm trading down, one way or another. And as a critique of Carolina's mngmt, I expect them and demand them to trade down or I will give them a less than perfect draft grade. The market not being convenient in desiring the #1 pick isn't my problem, but if it was I would solve it, and Carolina needs to figure it out, one way or another. They need to get the job done and find a way to make it happen, or they are failures. I'm not a failure and as God is my witness, in a parallel universe where I'm the GM, you can bank on it that I will execute a trade. I don't know what the heck the trade will be, but I promise you I will make one happen. And I expect Carolina's GM to do the same or better than what I could come up with because he's the so-called professional, so he better figure out a way to outperform me with his draft strategy. Good luck Marty.

[cochiseuofm]

TSE you don't have an actual team, so outperforming your make-believe draft strategy that involves you imagining every team does exactly what you want them to is not very hard. The truth is, as ajax said, no one wants the 1st pick in this draft because there is no certain #1 guy, just a bunch of guys with question marks. Who wants to pay an uncertainty 1st overall pick money? And not only that, give up multiple picks to do so?

I'm sure they have looked into trade possibilities, heck they might even have called a bunch of teams about it. I don't buy that there are any takers and I don't buy for a second that just saying "I'm trading down, one way or another" means you will actually trade down. It takes two to tango and you don't control both sides of the equation. If no one wants to deal with you, you can't trade down.

[ajaX82]

TSE you don't have an actual team, so outperforming your make-believe draft strategy that involves you imagining every team does exactly what you want them to is not very hard. The truth is, as ajax said, no one wants the 1st pick in this draft because there is no certain #1 guy, just a bunch of guys with question marks. Who wants to pay an uncertainty 1st overall pick money? And not only that, give up multiple picks to do so?

I'm sure they have looked into trade possibilities, heck they might even have called a bunch of teams about it. I don't buy that there are any takers and I don't buy for a second that just saying "I'm trading down, one way or another" means you will actually trade down. It takes two to tango and you don't control both sides of the equation. If no one wants to deal with you, you can't trade down.

Exactly. I bet Carolina would love to trade down. Problem is that nobody wants to commit the money, especially until a new CBA is in place to see if there is a rookie wage scale.

[TSE]

no one wants the 1st pick in this draft

That's just not true. And it's not logical to think nobody would trade with me. I know for a fact that the value of the #1 pick wouldn't be as high for me in charge of Carolina as opposed to other teams. Plenty of teams would be willing to swap up to #1 if Carolina told them they didn't have to pay any compensation. Just about any team would do that at this point, the money isn't enough to scare them away, that pick is worth more than the financial penalty, otherwise all these teams that keep picking #1 would opt to not take any pick and forfeit the pick, but the pick is worth more than not having it. Your illogical argument predicates that the pick has a negative value, and that's asinine.

[TSE]

Exactly. I bet Carolina would love to trade down. Problem is that nobody wants to commit the money, especially until a new CBA is in place to see if there is a rookie wage scale.

Neither does Carolina. As long as they don't want to commit the money to a higher degree than somebody else, then they can find a trade as that team would hold a higher value of that pick than they do. I think at least 20 teams, if not 30, should value that pick more than Carolina. A trade is there if Carolina wants to do it, I promise you.

[ajaX82]

Exactly. I bet Carolina would love to trade down. Problem is that nobody wants to commit the money, especially until a new CBA is in place to see if there is a rookie wage scale.

Neither does Carolina. As long as they don't want to commit the money to a higher degree than somebody else, then they can find a trade as that team would hold a higher value of that pick than they do. I think at least 20 teams, if not 30, should value that pick more than Carolina. A trade is there if Carolina wants to do it, I promise you.

We will have to agree to disagree

[TSE]

Exactly. I bet Carolina would love to trade down. Problem is that nobody wants to commit the money, especially until a new CBA is in place to see if there is a rookie wage scale.

Neither does Carolina. As long as they don't want to commit the money to a higher degree than somebody else, then they can find a trade as that team would hold a higher value of that pick than they do. I think at least 20 teams, if not 30, should value that pick more than Carolina. A trade is there if Carolina wants to do it, I promise you.

We will have to agree to disagree

No we don't. There's still time for you to change your mind and agree with me . Ok I'm now the GM of Carolina and you are the GM of all 31 other teams. So to be fair, let's pick a team that works favorably for my hypothetical here, because I need to find the #1 of those 31 teams that logically makes most sense to trade with me, since in my hypothetical that's the team ultimately I will be closing a deal with after I figure out which one it is. So I need you to give me a couple of teams in the league that you think would have particular interest in any of the top 5 best players in the draft as you see them. Forget about where they pick for a second, just look at the list of teams and start to think of the best handpicked guys you can think of for some of those teams that would be the most powerful and valuable plucking if any team could have that top pick. If you could give one player for every team that is the most valuable draft prospect for them, then that would be easier. Cause depending on what your inputs are, I might be dropping down only to like the 5 spot, but I might have to drop completely out of Rd 1 to pull of my trade depending on your responses. So supply as many of those 32 that you have time to do, and I'll prove to you my point perhaps, that is if you play fair.

Also anybody else can feel free to submit a 1 player per team list, but I'm only looking for responders that believe it is 100% impossible for Carolina to execute a trade. And I don't literally mean 100%, if you are close to that and virtually 100% sure that no trade could be made that's close enough. As long as we get 1 or 2 examples at least then we have potential here to actually execute a mock trade. If you are a non-believer then supply a list of your own if you don't like the other people's lists or trade decisions with me, otherwise keep your mouth shut when you want to suggest Carolina can't trade the pick, cause I'm not going to listen to that crap anymore unless somebody is prepared to back it up and explain how they think that makes sense, cause I'm certain that it does not and that Carolina could easily trade the pick with no problem if they want to.

[cochiseuofm]

^Can all of us but TSE agree we don't really care about if Carolina can or cannot trade down in the draft anymore? I would bet $100 right now that they don't trade down, so it is pointless to argue.

Anyways, did anyone else, Icness specifically, see that Janoris Jenkins got dismissed from his team and will likely be in the supplementary draft now? Would he be worth forfeiting a third-round pick to claim? I would say so, he would probably go higher than that if he had declared and we need help at CB. I know he has some personal problems, but honestly I think we have a couple of good leaders now on the defensive end to keep him straight. But I never watched Florida so I know little about him other than he is talented.

Aqib Talib is also rumored to be available, most likely on waivers, because of personal problems too. If we're willing to take a risk on a guy with off the field issues, we could upgrade our secondary quite a bit (though I'd bet both guys get a lot of interest from the rest of the league.)

[Lionlifer]

I could have sworn they were projecting the Lions to draft Jenkins in early mocks this year, so a third round pick, if thats what he would really require, does seem like a good bargin.

As far as picking him up....I can go either way. I'm not looking for the Lions to be a team full of saints, but it'd be nice to not turn into the Cinci Bengals either.

Some people are just more trouble than they are worth, which I think Jenkins falls into. Two weed charges and a resisting arrest, he is on his way to being the second coming of Pacman Jones.

[TSE]

^Can all of us but TSE agree we don't really care about if Carolina can or cannot trade down in the draft anymore? I would bet $100 right now that they don't trade down, so it is pointless to argue.

Trading any particular pick has built in factors that make it generally unlikely and any bet would typically offer odds and not be a straight 1:1 bet. Nobody in their right mind would accept your wager, but that's cool, perhaps they won't trade, I would guess that they don't. But if they do, I certainly wouldn't be shocked, I would say well that makes sense and sounds like the obviously practical thing to do, so no surprise to see that.

[cochiseuofm]

Let me be more clear, I'd bet $100 on any line you think is fair that they won't trade their pick. Anyways, like I said, it doesn't matter at all to me because I'm not a Panthers fan, and I don't want the Lions to trade to #1 as it would cost too much to do so.

[Piston Pete]

Who cares about the Panther's draft. Let's get back on tract and talk Lions football.


Anywho, ICENESS - would the Texans be offering their 1st and 2nd rounders to move up? McShay was just talking about them saying he's heard rumors they'd like to move up, but thinks they will ultimately stay at #11 and go for a DE like Da'Quan Bowers or Aldon Smith. If McShay is correct in thinking they'd rather keep their 2nd and take one of those DE's in the 1st, then I think we could be next in line with #13 and our 2nd rounder to move up for Peterson.

Also, Kiper said Jimmy Smith is moving up draft boards - something to keep in mind if we stay at #13.

At #13, we could draft any one of these guys IMO; Prince, Jimmy Smith, Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Castonzo, Bowers, Solder, or Cameron Jordan.

[Icness]

I don't see any case where Mayhew moves up from #13, not for any player. I do see opportunity to slide back a few spots, esp. If the 3rd QB comes off before #13.

Janoris jenkins is bad news. 3rd drug arrest, 4th overall arrest and he is 21. I would rather take a chance on Talib when TB cuts him...which they will.

I get the strong sense 2nd round will be LB and not CB, more bang for buck. 3rd-4th LB>>6th-8th CB. Keep anan eye on Marcus Gilchrist though.

And I used to work for the Panthers a few years ago and I don't care about their draft all that much. They get Newton and then a bunch of DT/DE picks later

[cochiseuofm]

Talib is a good player, but that also means, I expect, he is going to cost more to bring in. And he has just as many problems as Janoris Jenkins, except instead of being arrested for marijuana use, he is being arrested for assaulting cab drivers and shooting at people. He has also got into multiple fights with teammates and got into that shouting match with his coach. And he has already been suspended once, which means another violation of the conduct policy, which he might already have violated with the whole shooting at his sister's boyfriend thing, means at least a four-game suspension.

Am I wrong in seeing way more red flags with Talib than with Jenkins, a college kid who likes to smoke pot? Jenkins I think could still change if he is on a team full of good influences and has to work for a starting spot, Talib is already an established player with a pattern of violent behavior. I understand his skill is higher, but I see the risk as higher too.

[Lionlifer]

It seems like teams are more likely to bring on an established troubled player versus a college player with a checkered past. Probably due to the fact if the established player doesn't pan out, you can cut him, pay his bonus, and move on with your life. But a rookie will cost you a pick, and will likely get a longer contract.

I'd be more open to bringing on Talib on a 1 year incentive laden contract that to draft Jenkins in the supplimental.

But thats my arm-chair-gm opinon for ya, so take it for what its worth (not much )

[Icness]

It seems like teams are more likely to bring on an established troubled player versus a college player with a checkered past. Probably due to the fact if the established player doesn't pan out, you can cut him, pay his bonus, and move on with your life. But a rookie will cost you a pick, and will likely get a longer contract.

I'd be more open to bringing on Talib on a 1 year incentive laden contract that to draft Jenkins in the supplimental.

But thats my arm-chair-gm opinon for ya, so take it for what its worth (not much )

Your assessment is dead-on. Talib has proven he can play in the NFL, Jenkins has not. That means quite a bit to NFL teams.

[cochiseuofm]

Icness, you know more than I do so not going to doubt you, but I just am not sure I agree with that strategy.

I just don't want any part of a guy like Talib. He has had four violent incidents, twice with teammates, since joining the league, and those are just the ones we know about. He is recognized as one of the best CBs in the league, is still just 25, and is going to get released by his team for nothing. I read a blurb from one of his teammates asking the team to let him go. And yet I'd bet there still will be a decent bidding war for his services because of the focus on winning in the NFL. I could be wrong there, but I highly doubt we get Talib for a one-year incentivized contract simply because he'll get better offers. (And again, he is currently out on bond after being arrested for shooting at someone.)

The talent is great, but who wants a high-priced guy that antogonizes his teammates and puts himself at risk for long suspensions? I don't just see the risks as we might lose money, I see the risks also as we don't solve our cornerback issue by relying on a high-priced risky guy like Talib and that we may hurt our locker room by bringing in a guy like this.

Jenkins may not have shown he can play in the NFL, but what rookie has? All he costs is a third-round pick, and since he has talent greater than that not a huge deal, and the cost of paying a third-round rookie, which is going to be less than Talib. We can release him too if he doesn't work out. And we can keep money to pursue a more solid veteran.