Game 9: Viking Invasion Sequel
Posted: Tue Nov 6, 2012 11:10 pm
Well we finally evened up our record at 4-4 for a fighting chance to keep our season alive. This week is another must win, if you remember 2 weeks ago I declared that we essentially must win the next 3 considering they were more favorable opponents and matchups before the tough back end of our schedule, and this one is a mandatory victory needed. We still can only afford to lose 2 more games this year so this just cannot be one of them considering it's also a home game, and PERCY HARVIN is currently expected to miss the game, but it is not confirmed as of yet.
DVOA says our odds to make the playoffs stand at about 11% only and they still have our SB victory odds at close to 1,000 to 1, however those stats are truly not accurate. The way the odds work are not just based on simple math but an infusion of statistical performance that currently we do not look good in. The problem with the SB odds is that if we actually won enough games to make the playoffs and won all the way up to the SB, well the stats we would earn naturally in those victories would change our calculation numbers and so a true accurate system of odds needs to figure out how to anticipate those benefits as an assumption predicated upon making it that far if we do, and their system is weak and flawed in that it does not. So you can't pay too much attention to the playoff odds of 11% or the SB odds of nearly 1,000 to 1, but they do at least give us a flavor to demonstrate the importance of winning this next game.
Stanford Routt was released and so his heavy remaining contract is now not an automatic part of the deal since I didn't hear that anybody claimed him off waivers, so it should be interesting to see if we try to add him as I suggested and then cut Brian Robiskie since he's the least valuable roster body especially now that we traded for Mike Thomas to give us 4 viable WRs in addition to our 3 TEs that we activate every game.
So let's make it 5-4 and keep things interesting, otherwise we will be nearly dead. The NFC is still 10 wins up on the AFC still confirming that the WC is harder to make in our conference. We are fighting for our lives this Sunday and we should win this one for sure!
DVOA says our odds to make the playoffs stand at about 11% only and they still have our SB victory odds at close to 1,000 to 1, however those stats are truly not accurate. The way the odds work are not just based on simple math but an infusion of statistical performance that currently we do not look good in. The problem with the SB odds is that if we actually won enough games to make the playoffs and won all the way up to the SB, well the stats we would earn naturally in those victories would change our calculation numbers and so a true accurate system of odds needs to figure out how to anticipate those benefits as an assumption predicated upon making it that far if we do, and their system is weak and flawed in that it does not. So you can't pay too much attention to the playoff odds of 11% or the SB odds of nearly 1,000 to 1, but they do at least give us a flavor to demonstrate the importance of winning this next game.
Stanford Routt was released and so his heavy remaining contract is now not an automatic part of the deal since I didn't hear that anybody claimed him off waivers, so it should be interesting to see if we try to add him as I suggested and then cut Brian Robiskie since he's the least valuable roster body especially now that we traded for Mike Thomas to give us 4 viable WRs in addition to our 3 TEs that we activate every game.
So let's make it 5-4 and keep things interesting, otherwise we will be nearly dead. The NFC is still 10 wins up on the AFC still confirming that the WC is harder to make in our conference. We are fighting for our lives this Sunday and we should win this one for sure!