Predict Aaron Rodgers' 2008 Stats

[TheGhostDog]

Seeing that we have an official Packer record prediction thread, I thought it would also be fun to get some predictions from everyone on what sort of numbers they expect from Aaron Rodgers this season.

For myself, I think it's useful to first look at how several veteran QBs did in their first full seasons running a talented west coast offense. Here's three that popped into mind:
_____________________Att__%__Yds_TD_INT_Rating
Steve Young 1992 49ers 402 67% 3,465 25 7 107.0
Elvis Grbac 1999 Chiefs 499 59% 3,389 22 15 81.7
Steve Bono 1995 Chiefs 520 56% 3,121 21 10 79.5

While all three of these QBs had significantly more career starts before they became full-time starters than Rodgers, I think Rodgers may still post comparable stats because of my personal belief that he will be surrounded by a stronger supporting cast than Grbac or Bono, specifically a much better receiving corps. My prediction for Rodgers' 2008 season totals: 64% completions, 3600 yards, 25 TDs, 13 Ints.

[LUKE23]

3,500 yards, 23 TD, 10 INT, 61% completion

[ReasonablySober]

3,500 yards, 23 TD, 10 INT, 61% completion

That would be pretty incredible.

[LUKE23]

It's similar to what Rivers did in his first full season, after spending a couple under Brees' tutelage.

I think the weapons are there for those numbers.

[paulpressey25]

The asterisk for everyone is if he can stay healthy.

If he plays all 16 games, I'm down for 3,800 yards/25TD's/14 Ints/85 passer rating.

I like the Grbac comparison.

[Bernman]

Rodgers is better than Bono and Grbac, worse than Young.

I predict his QB rating will be in the 88-90 range, that's the most important number.

Medium TD total factoring in not being prone to take chances against congested goal line defenses and receivers who break off big plays - 22

Medium to low INT total factoring in once again a cautious approach, but also throwing rocket balls from close range which bounce off receivers hands - 11

High Completion Percentage utilizing short passing game and receivers who can make plays after the catch - 65 %

High yardage total factoring in Pack's propensity to throw the football - 3,900

[eagle13]

Considering our OL against Vikes DL

5-13 attempts - 1 TD - 1 INT - 3 sacks - out for year after 1 qtr.

(don't know how to make green font)

[xTitan]

3,500 yards, 23 TD, 10 INT, 61% completion

The irony with Rivers is that he was a worse QB his second full year of starting than he was his first year.

3,152 yards, 21 TD's, 15 INT, 60.2%

[El Duderino]

I have no idea what exactly Rodgers will put up stat wise if he plays 16 games, a lot will depend on how pass happy the offense is. I do expect Aaron to be pretty effective overall though throwing the ball given his skill level and all the weapons at his disposal.

The one stat i'm very curious to see over the season is sack totals. I've felt for awhile that Brett generally has kept the sack totals lower than the ability of many of his offensive lines because he has such great pocket presence, instincts, and the ability to throw the ball with zip while backing up and/or at unconventional arm angles. I'm nearly certain the sack numbers will go up, but by how much i just don't know. That's fairly important because sacks usually are drive killers. Hopefully Rodgers learning curve at feeling pressure and reacting smartly to it isn't a long process.

[TheGhostDog]

I have no idea what exactly Rodgers will put up stat wise

Aw, c'mon El Dude, just give us a guess then. It's fun. All the cool kids are doing it. Do it for the children.

[Bernman]

I have no idea what exactly Rodgers will put up stat wise if he plays 16 games, a lot will depend on how pass happy the offense is. I do expect Aaron to be pretty effective overall though throwing the ball given his skill level and all the weapons at his disposal.

The one stat i'm very curious to see over the season is sack totals. I've felt for awhile that Brett generally has kept the sack totals lower than the ability of many of his offensive lines because he has such great pocket presence, instincts, and the ability to throw the ball with zip while backing up and/or at unconventional arm angles. I'm nearly certain the sack numbers will go up, but by how much i just don't know. That's fairly important because sacks usually are drive killers. Hopefully Rodgers learning curve at feeling pressure and reacting smartly to it isn't a long process.

El Dude, Favre took a career high 40 sacks in '96, while posting his highest TD/INT ratio and leading the team to the Super Bowl. In the previous season MVP and Super Bowl winning season he took 33 sacks, tied for the 4th highest in his career. Favre was at his best when he was willing to take a sack. Following the Trotter/Arrington sandwich sack that wrenched his knee, his sack totals subsequently declined along with his performances overall. His average sack total during his last 5 seasons was 18, and his average interception total was 20. I'd rather a quarterback take a sack than throw an interception. I'd also rather the quarterback hang in there long enough for a receiver to get open around the sticks, risking taking a sack, rather than throwing way too short and giving away a drive. Often Favre would either make an errant throw off balance or a dump off pass before necessary just to avoid potentially taking a hit. That's one of the real reasons he/we struggled in the playoffs (in addition to not trusting defenses). He played against higher caliber pass rushes and in cold weather where the hits stung more.

As long as Rodgers doesn't take a grossly excessive amount of sacks I hardly think it's a negative change for the offense and team outlook. Actually, it will give us a better shot at winning in the playoffs.

[humanrefutation]

Rodgers - 85.5 passer rating, 64% Completion PCT, 3,600yds, 28TDs, 14INTs