NFC Wild Card picture (UPDATED 12/21)

LUKE23 · Post #181 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:37 pm

By take care of business do you mean pull one out of their ass?

I think it's pretty obvious what I meant, them beating the Giants. The Skins aren't nearly as bad as their record, they have had some heartbreaking losses. I'd doubt Giants are favored by much at all tonight.

Captain Erv · Post #182 » by **Captain Erv** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:59 pm

Did we ever figure out what happens in a three-way tie between us, Dallas, and NY?

LUKE23 · Post #183 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:01 pm

Captain Erv wrote:Did we ever figure out what happens in a three-way tie between us, Dallas, and NY?

Packers and Giants in, Dallas out. GB/NY/DAL go to head to head, Giants are 2-0 vs. Dallas, Packers are 1-0 vs. Dallas.

The only way we miss with 10 wins is if Cowboys have 11 wins and Giants have 10.

Captain Erv · Post #184 » by **Captain Erv** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:04 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
Captain Erv wrote:Did we ever figure out what happens in a three-way tie between us, Dallas, and NY?

Packers and Giants in, Dallas out. GB/NY/DAL go to head to head, Giants are 2-0 vs. Dallas, Packers are 1-0 vs. Dallas.

The only way we miss with 10 wins is if Cowboys have 11 wins and Giants have 10.

Got it...well that makes me feel a little more uneasy, but Washington has been playing better and Philly should have something to play for in the Dallas game. However, we just need to take care of business.

LUKE23 · Post #185 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:06 pm

I feel pretty comfortable that the Cowboys and Giants don't both win out. And even if they do, we will know before game start vs. Cardinals whether we need a win or not against a team that will be resting Warner (Cowboys/Giants both play at noon final week, we're at 3:15).

I still feel very good, even though last nights game was a kick in the nuts.

Post #186 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:13 pm

Packers still control their own destiny. Can't really ask for more than that.

Post #187 » by **Wade-A-Holic** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:22 pm

DrugBust wrote:Packers still control their own destiny. Can't really ask for more than that.

Yep, and with two games remaining that ought to be won given the circumstances, IMO.

an_also · Post #188 » by **an_also** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 7:27 pm

I want to update you on Green Bay’s latest playoff scenario, but be forewarned that it will be a bit complicated until we know who wins Monday night’s game between Washington and the New York Giants. So, for now, let’s look at both possibilities:

1. If the Giants beat Washington, the Packers can clinch a playoff spot by:
A.) Defeating Seattle next Sunday, while the Giants lose (or tie) to Carolina, OR;
B.) Defeating Seattle next Sunday, while Dallas loses at Washington, OR;
C.) Tying Seattle next Sunday, while the Giants lose to Carolina.

2. If the Redskins beat the Giants, the Packers can clinch a playoff spot by:
A.) Defeating or tying Seattle, OR;
B.) The Giants losing to Carolina.

We’ll revisit and clarify after Monday night’s game.

Scoops · Post #189 » by **Scoops** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 9:56 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
By take care of business do you mean pull one out of their ass?

I think it's pretty obvious what I meant, them beating the Giants. The Skins aren't nearly as bad as their record, they have had some heartbreaking losses. I'd doubt Giants are favored by much at all tonight.

Yeah, I know what you meant, I just don't think the Redskins stand much of a chance with a lameduck coach and not much to play for. But like you said, Giants are only 3 point favorites so maybe it'll be close.

LUKE23 · Post #190 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 9:58 pm

I think the division games where one team has a chance to ruin the others season are big motivation for the spoiler team. Look at the Bears, a vastly inferior team, vs. us two weeks ago.

I'm not saying it's a lock Redskins win, but it won't shock me at all.

LUKE23 · Post #191 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 3:21 am

LUKE23 wrote:I think the division games where one team has a chance to ruin the others season are big motivation for the spoiler team. Look at the Bears, a vastly inferior team, vs. us two weeks ago.

I'm not saying it's a lock Redskins win, but it won't shock me at all.

<--------------------------------------------I'm with stupid

bucks2281 · Post #192 » by **bucks2281** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 6:50 am

The Philly/Dallas game will probably end up being the Sunday nighter, so we better hope we win out, otherwise we could be on pins and needles until the end of that game. Has Arizona said anything about resting starters?

LUKE23 · Post #193 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 2:14 pm

Well, either need to win out, or win next week and have one of Dallas or New York lose one of their remaining two. Still sitting in good shape even with the Giants win last night.

I see it going down to the last week though, I think both Cowboys (at Redskins) and Giants (vs. Panthers) win next week.

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #194 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 3:12 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Well, either need to win out, or win next week and have one of Dallas or New York lose one of their remaining two. Still sitting in good shape even with the Giants win last night.

I see it going down to the last week though, I think both Cowboys (at Redskins) and Giants (vs. Panthers) win next week.

If Moore keeps playing well at QB for the Panthers I could see them beating the Giants. Good running game and good pass rush should keep them in it.

chuckleslove · Post #195 » by **chuckleslove** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 3:21 pm

Dallas could also easily have a traditional Dallas December game. They very well could be due for a big let down after last week's huge win. Bottom line is we need to take care of our own business and then it won't matter. Both of our games are very winnable so we need to do as much. If we take care of Seattle then at the very worst we will be in a win and your in situation in week 17 at Arizona so let's take care of a bad/injured Seattle team at home.

Purple Palace · Post #196 » by **Purple Palace** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:41 pm

If AZ has a shot at the 2 seed, maybe even 3 seed, I think they could go for it in week 17. So I wouldn't put it past them trying to win. They did the same last yr vs Seattle when they clinched long before week 17 and went out and got the win.

I don't see us (AZ) winning either way just because the Pack could have far more to play for, but don't be shocked to see all the starters out there for more than just the half if the 2/3 seed is possible.

trwi7 · Post #197 » by **trwi7** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:13 pm

I think the only way they get the two seed is if the Vikings lose out and the Eagles lose out while the Cardinals win out.

I believe the Eagles would win the tiebreaker against Arizona for the 3 seed as well.

Post #198 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:21 pm

Yea, I think the Cards are just about locked for the 4 seed.

an_also · Post #199 » by **an_also** » Thu Dec 24, 2009 5:56 am

This article does a good job in breaking down our scenarios and who to cheer for etc.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/80035237.html

Playoff hopes become two focused

By Greg A. Bedard of the Journal Sentinel

Green Bay — For the Green Bay Packers, the slogan "get to 10" has been replaced by "win both."

At least it should, when it comes to their playoff prospects.

After last weekend's events, winning their final two games - Sunday at home against the Seattle Seahawks (5-9) and on the road against the Arizona Cardinals (9-5) on Jan. 3 - is the only way for the Packers to assure themselves of a playoff berth.

Things get complicated if the Packers get to only 10 victories.

"I just know that if we win two, we're in," quarterback Aaron Rodgers said Wednesday. "So we've got to win two.

"But we're in a good spot. We control our own destiny. We win two and we're in. That's all we're focused on."

The Packers should still be headed to playoffs. But it became less of a certainty when the Dallas Cowboys upset the undefeated Saints in New Orleans on Saturday night.

If the Cowboys had lost to the Saints, just one win in their final three games would have clinched a wild-card berth for the Packers.

Then the Packers lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on the final play of the game Sunday. And the remaining NFC teams in contention, the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants, also won. The Eagles clinched a playoff berth at 10-4. The Giants stayed alive at 8-6.

Thus the Packers' odds of making the playoffs went from 93.5% before last weekend to 89% this week, according to makenflplayoffs.com.

But even if the Packers win only one of their final two games, they will be in if Dallas or New York lose one.

The one scenario the Packers do not want is to be tied only with the Giants at 10-6. If that happens, the Giants would go to the playoffs based on the third tiebreaker - won/loss percentage against common opponents (Dallas, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Minnesota). The Packers already have three losses against those foes. The Giants would have one.

So besides the Cowboys and/or Giants losing, what Packers fans want to root for is the Eagles to lose both of their games.

If the Eagles, Packers and Giants all finish 10-6, the Cowboys will win the NFC East at 11-5, and the Eagles (fourth seeding) and Packers (fifth seeding) will go to the playoffs. The Giants would be eliminated because the first tiebreaker among three teams is to eliminate all but the top team from a division (Philadelphia swept New York).

All four remaining teams, including the Packers, are at least seven-point favorites heading into this weekend's games.

If they all win, Packers fans could be faced with this unsettling feeling: rooting for former quarterback Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings to beat the Giants (noon kickoff).

If the Vikings win, the Packers will be in the playoffs by the time they kick off at 3:15 against the Cardinals. A win by the Giants means the Packers must beat the Cardinals to get into the playoffs.

If Favre's still motivated by revenge against the Packers - something he has denied, but his actions, like the late deep pass in the first matchup between the two teams, have said something different - he might be able to hurt the Packers' cause by playing poorly against New York.

The other factor in the final-week scenario is whether the Cardinals would play all of their starters against the Packers.

If the Vikings beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday, the Cardinals would no longer have a chance at a first-round bye as one of the top two seeds.

The only thing a win over the Packers would do for the Cardinals is improve their seeding from fourth to third. Given coach Ken Whisenhunt's track record and obsession about injuries, the Cardinals likely wouldn't put up much of a fight in that scenario.

In other words, two wins by Favre and the Vikings help the Packers.

If the Packers want to stay out of the drama and eliminate any doubt, they know there's only one way: Beat the Seahawks and Cardinals.

But coach Mike McCarthy is only worried about winning the next game, which would be No. 10.

"What I have always said is let's get to 10 wins and then we'll talk about the playoffs," McCarthy said. "You guys see the playoff scenarios. They change every week or they have the ability to change. New England didn't get into the playoffs last year at 11 (wins); I am aware of that. When you get to 10 wins then you probably start worrying about what is going on around you."

magic_turk · Post #200 » by **magic_turk** » Thu Dec 24, 2009 6:24 am

Just win, no more to it