Now that we've cooled off a bit..Review the season

[Jollay]

Generally a positive year. Rodgers has proven he could be a HOF QB one day--and perhaps most importantly, he has proven his durability even while holding the ball too long on occasion.

That's the most important part.

But on the flip side it was clear this team was too flawed to reach the Superbowl. We need to cut down on the penalties, get a stabilizing veteran force on the line and perhaps at LB in FA, and draft a young lineman and perhaps corner.

[Ayt]

humanrefutation, when I was reading your post I wondered why you omitted Collins having another Pro Bowl season in your positives section. Of course, you then call Collins overrated and "bunk" in coverage in your negatives.

It's baffling to me that people still think the guy isn't a top 5 player at his position. He almost never misses a tackle, and he's excellent in coverage.

[humanrefutation]

humanrefutation, when I was reading your post I wondered why you omitted Collins having another Pro Bowl season in your positives section. Of course, you then call Collins overrated and "bunk" in coverage in your negatives.

It's baffling to me that people still think the guy isn't a top 5 player at his position. He almost never misses a tackle, and he's excellent in coverage.

I'm sorry, but while Collins isn't certainly the only person to blame for the poor coverage in our 6 losses, I defy you to watch the way the middle of the field was consistently poorly covered against Minny(2x), Pittsburgh, and Arizona and not find some fault in our supposed "pro bowl" safety.

Let's be honest here - pro bowlers are largely decided based on stats (especially for safeties) and Collins consistently gets a lot of picks. But, like Sharper, 99% of his picks are right-place-right-time kind of plays. A QB overthrows a WR, passes get tipped, hail mary tosses, etc. Now, he should get credit for being in the right place at the right time, but that doesn't mean he's a great coverage safety. I just watched the our secondary get torched up the middle yesterday, saw the same against Minnesota twice, and the same against Pittsburgh. Collins played in every single one of those games. He carries some fault for that, and I for one am not sure he's a top 5 safety.

[ReasonablySober]

Adrian Wilson is wildly regarded as one of the best safeties in the game, and he just watched Aaron Rodgers carve his team up. Charles Woodson probably wins the DPOY this season and he was ineffective yesterday.

The fact is the Packers this season were rolled by three guys that will wind up as first ballot HOF players in Favre, Roethisberger and Warner. Yes, they made it look easy. No, I don't think it's an indictment on the ability of our defensive backs. I do think there's an issue with coaching and pass-rush, though.

There's a truism in the NFL that no QB likes to get harassed. If we had anyone besides Matthews able to get to the QB Woodson, Collins and the rest of the DBs are looking good today. That's why I'm not overly concerned with adding another DB this spring. If an elite one fell? Sure. Berry or Haden would be awesome. But it's infinitely more important, IMHO, to add another big time pass rusher. I like Jones and I think he could be a long term starter, but we need at least two more threats in the front seven. The Steelers have Woodley, Harrison and Timmons. The Cowboys have Ratlif, Ware and Spencer. The Vikings have Williams, Allen and Edwards.

The Packers desperately need a couple more pass rushers.

[Mags FTW]

The Packers desperately need a couple more pass rushers.

This.

Hawk and Jones are "just guys" at this point. For Jones being a 7th rounder that's not bad, but for Hawk being a 5th overall pick it's just inexcusable. We need another playmaking LB similar to Clay that can "get home" to the quarterback.

We also need Harris, Lee, and Blackmon to come back healthy and to get 1 or 2 more solid DBs.

A Tackle.

Some type of special teams threat.

And of course, a punter and kicker.

[humanrefutation]

Adrian Wilson is wildly regarded as one of the best safeties in the game, and he just watched Aaron Rodgers carve his team up. Charles Woodson probably wins the DPOY this season and he was ineffective yesterday.

The fact is the Packers this season were rolled by three guys that will wind up as first ballot HOF players in Favre, Roethisberger and Warner. Yes, they made it look easy. No, I don't think it's an indictment on the ability of our defensive backs. I do think there's an issue with coaching and pass-rush, though.

I can agree with that last statement. The pass rush needs work, especially if we expect to stop guys like Favre and Warner. We can't rely solely on blitzes because these guys are known to find holes in coverage and dice us up.

That being said, I find it hard pressed to look at the the #s yesterday and not find any fault in our defensive backs, especially Collins, Bigby, Giordano, Bush, and Bell. They got beat consistently. Woodson and Tramon played well all things considered...and Woodson got screwed on a couple of offensive PI non-calls. But the middle of the field is where Doucett and Breaston made their bones all game long (as opposed to our offense which made almost all of our big plays on the edges, with man-to-man coverage, which speaks to Wilson's performance on every play except the two bombs we missed to Jennings). I didn't see Nick Collins stepping in and making big plays on those passes across the middle, nor did I see the same out of the rest of that bunch.

Now, is coaching at issue? Probably. Was depth and injuries an issue? Yeah. But, I also think Collins played poorly in those two games, the Minny game, the Bengals game, and the Steelers game, arguably our toughest opponents all season. If he can't step it up against top-flight QBs and WRs, he isn't an elite safety.

[El Duderino]

Adrian Wilson is wildly regarded as one of the best safeties in the game, and he just watched Aaron Rodgers carve his team up. Charles Woodson probably wins the DPOY this season and he was ineffective yesterday.

The fact is the Packers this season were rolled by three guys that will wind up as first ballot HOF players in Favre, Roethisberger and Warner. Yes, they made it look easy. No, I don't think it's an indictment on the ability of our defensive backs. I do think there's an issue with coaching and pass-rush, though.

There's a truism in the NFL that no QB likes to get harassed. If we had anyone besides Matthews able to get to the QB Woodson, Collins and the rest of the DBs are looking good today. That's why I'm not overly concerned with adding another DB this spring. If an elite one fell? Sure. Berry or Haden would be awesome. But it's infinitely more important, IMHO, to add another big time pass rusher. I like Jones and I think he could be a long term starter, but we need at least two more threats in the front seven. The Steelers have Woodley, Harrison and Timmons. The Cowboys have Ratlif, Ware and Spencer. The Vikings have Williams, Allen and Edwards.

The Packers desperately need a couple more pass rushers.

I agree that Collins is much better than humanrefutation thinks and agree that pass rushers in today's NFL trump all else defensively, but i think you're underrating the importance of corner depth. Look at how we targeted Adams on the Cardinals and teams targeted Jarret burnt toast Bush.

Few to no team are going to be able to have say 4 starting caliber corners on their team That said, with rule changes and smart coordinators with quality QB's now so often running 4-5 WR spread out schemes, you better not have complete liabilities at corner and even safety because coordinators will certainly game plan to target and expose them. When Ron Wolf said that you can't ever have to many quality corners, he was 100 percent correct.

Going forward given all the rule changes that favored the passing game, i see more and more teams will be putting out there 3-5 WR sets as much a part of their base offense as a 2 back one TE base set so long as thy have a decent QB. That makes your nickle corner basically a starting player. Your dime corner will also be on the field often. Have only one injury at corner, each guy slides up one spot on the playing time rung. Bad corners on a defense may as well be wearing a flashing neon sign helmet saying, here i am, come attack me incessantly.

So yea, if all is roughly equal talent wise on draft night between a pass rusher and corner, i'll take the pass rusher. That said, quality corners i'd rank second on the importance scale on a defense after pass rushers and above run stuffing tackles simply because the NFL has morphed into such a pass league. You win by being able to pass well and slowing down the pass.

[El Duderino]

humanrefutation, when I was reading your post I wondered why you omitted Collins having another Pro Bowl season in your positives section. Of course, you then call Collins overrated and "bunk" in coverage in your negatives.

It's baffling to me that people still think the guy isn't a top 5 player at his position. He almost never misses a tackle, and he's excellent in coverage.

I'm sorry, but while Collins isn't certainly the only person to blame for the poor coverage in our 6 losses, I defy you to watch the way the middle of the field was consistently poorly covered against Minny(2x), Pittsburgh, and Arizona and not find some fault in our supposed "pro bowl" safety.

Capers had Collins playing deep in many of those games in basically a Cover 2 scheme. A lot of those throws Sunday were in front of the safeties who were asked to play deep. All kinds of 8-15 yard throws that turned into bigger gains from the run after catch. Collins was barely even in the TV screen on a lot the the pass plays because he was being asked to play so deep. Capers was terrified of giving up deep throws and instead the scheme got destroyed 10-20 yard at a time.

Collins isn't without any flaws, but he's a very willing tackler in the run game, has solid coverage abilities, and has the best speed in the NFL at safety.

Let's be honest here - pro bowlers are largely decided based on stats (especially for safeties) and Collins consistently gets a lot of picks. But, like Sharper, 99% of his picks are right-place-right-time kind of plays. A QB overthrows a WR, passes get tipped, hail mary tosses, etc.

Were you really watching games the last two years? All safeties get some cheaper picks off say deflections, but multiple times i've seen Collins diagnose plays and then make a great break on a pass to turn it into an interception.

[humanrefutation]

Capers had Collins playing deep in many of those games in basically a Cover 2 scheme. A lot of those throws Sunday were in front of the safeties who were asked to play deep. All kinds of 8-15 yard throws that turned into bigger gains from the run after catch. Collins was barely even in the TV screen on a lot the the pass plays because he was being asked to play so deep. Capers was terrified of giving up deep throws and instead the scheme got destroyed 10-20 yard at a time.

Collins isn't without any flaws, but he's a very willing tackler in the run game, has solid coverage abilities, and has the best speed in the NFL at safety.

Fair point. Collins was just never in the picture on any of the plays down the middle. I figured the cover 2 had a lot to do with it, but the fact is I just haven't seen Nick Collins as a game breaker in the defensive backfield. I look at guys like Ed Reed, LeRoy Butler, Rodney Harrison, Brian Dawkins, Eugene Robinson, the late Sean Taylor, these guys were big playmakers. You never forgot about them because they were a constant part of the action. Now, I realize Collins isn't on their level, and I realize it's very scheme oriented, but what does it say about your pro-bowl safety when your team gets diced up in the secondary in each of your six losses?

My point, simply stated, is that I don't think Collins is a top-flight safety. He doesn't suck by any means. I think he's decent. But he's overrated by some people on this board.

Were you really watching games the last two years? All safeties get some cheaper picks off say deflections, but multiple times i've seen Collins diagnose plays and then make a great break on a pass to turn it into an interception.

I've been watching the same games you have, El Dude. My point was just that pro bowlers at safety are decided almost always off of their INT #s, which are not always an accurate reflection of their performance because safeties especially get the benefit of cheaper INTs then the rest of the secondary. Sharper is NOT the best safety in the NFC and yet he got the starting job. What does that tell you?

EDIT: Granted, 99% is an exaggeration but I don't think Sharper or Collins INT numbers are a great reflection of their coverage ability.

[El Duderino]

I've been watching the same games you have, El Dude. My point was just that pro bowlers at safety are decided almost always off of their INT #s, which are not always an accurate reflection of their performance because safeties especially get the benefit of cheaper INTs then the rest of the secondary. Sharper is NOT the best safety in the NFC and yet he got the starting job. What does that tell you?

Not just at safety, it happens at corner also where sometimes a player gets overrated or underrated in the secondary based simply on their INT totals for a season.

Champ Baily only had three picks yet he's a much better corner than many of the corners who had more picks. Sharper has long been a ball hawking safety, but also has long been a risk taker and mediocre at best tackler. I said what i said to you though because you said Collins has got nearly all his picks the last two years, 99% of his picks are right-place-right-time kind of plays. A QB overthrows a WR, passes get tipped, hail mary tosses, etc. That's just not true.

His first two-three years, yea he rarely ever got an INT by making a great read to steal an INT. His coverage IQ lagged way behind his athletic ability. The last two years though, i've just seen him multiple times make reads he couldn't do earlier in his career to make interceptions kinda like Woodson has. Read what the route is and the QB, then explode to the ball with his athletic ability. If his 13 INT's the last two years were put on a highlight reel, you'd be surprised at how many weren't only lucky right place right time types. His brain is finally catching up with his massive physical gifts. I'd credit Woodson for that to a degree. Collins mentioned more than once about how Woodson helped team him to watch film smarter so he could better digest what he was seeing.

People can argue if Collins is a top 5 safety, but i can't see how anyone could argue that he isn't at least a top 10 safety. With the garbage depth behind the starters at safety and Bigby being more a hitter than coverage type, Collins being retained is vital for the Packers defense being effective.

[jerrod]

I would like to see Capers get rid of that stupid "psycho" package. Pittsburgh and Arizona both carved that scheme apart.

this was gonna be my sole contribution here, i've seen some pretty interesting setups by the ravens over the years and the more exotic you get, the worse they look if you don't get penetration. i saw most packer games this year and they seemed to bring this mostly on third down i can't think the success rate was too high.

[LarryHarris]

I still haven't cooled off... maybe by the weekend...

[humanrefutation]

Not just at safety, it happens at corner also where sometimes a player gets overrated or underrated in the secondary based simply on their INT totals for a season.

Champ Baily only had three picks yet he's a much better corner than many of the corners who had more picks. Sharper has long been a ball hawking safety, but also has long been a risk taker and mediocre at best tackler. I said what i said to you though because you said Collins has got nearly all his picks the last two years, 99% of his picks are right-place-right-time kind of plays. A QB overthrows a WR, passes get tipped, hail mary tosses, etc. That's just not true.

Fair enough. First, I'd like to once again back off of my 99% number. That's an exaggeration based largely off of my frustration as to how we got destroyed on those routes up the middle.

But, with that being said, citing Bailey is exactly proving my point. He's a great coverage corner, but his INT #s don't reflect that. I just believe that INTs aren't a great reflection of a defensive back's coverage ability, especially safeties who are rarely matched up one-on-one and get cheaper picks than corners might. The reason I bring up this point is because I don't believe Collins being a pro-bowler means that he's a great coverage safety...because those are largely decided based on their INT numbers. A guy like Bailey doesn't get a lot of picks because of the fact that teams don't throw on him because he's so good.

I agree that Collins has definitely gotten better from when he was a rookie. I would just like to see him become more of a playmaker...a constant force...like we saw with Butler and Robinson back in the day and what we see with Reed right now, before I call him a great safety.

[Ayt]

I can't imagine how big of a drop off we'd have seen this year if we didn't have Collins. If Collins had blown out a knee in the preseason, we would have seen Rouse start for us instead of him starting in NY. Bigby is actually a very solid starting safety, and Collins is several notches up the latter in terms of overall talent at the position in the NFL.

I think people that underrate him forget that there are some truly horrific safeties out there. It is not an easy position to fill. Their tends to be a massive drop off between the really good ones and everyone else.

Rouse was clueless, and ended up starting a bunch of games for NY. Marquand Manuel started for Denver then started for Detroit this past season. Mark Roman anyone? He's started for SF for 4 straight years. Bhawoh Jue was a starting safety for SD before getting hurt and being forced to retire early. Tyrone Carter is still in the NFL somehow.

We are just talking about people we've had over the past couple years. League wide, safeties are generally not very good. When you get one as good as Collins you keep him until his play drops off enough. Even a guy like Bigby is very solid and should be retained until his play drops off.

[El Duderino]

Yea, i think there is some overreaction to the terrible game played Sunday by the whole secondary Collins included. Overall though, he had a good year.