Chargers, Packers fit the profile of Super Bowl contender

[SnakeLH2006]

http://www.nfl.com/kickoff/story/09000d ... -contender

Today, Sept. 3, marks the 30th anniversary of Vince Lombardi's death. Much has happened in the NFL since the legendary Packers coach passed, but his legacy lives on, growing stronger each day.

This is largely due to the wonderful stories that continue to circulate, his dynamic presence in the NFL Films sideline shots, his rebuilding of the Packers, and his wisdom that was an inspiration to his players.

Predictions for 2010
» Packers unanimously picked to reach Super Bowl
» These teams have the profile to reach the big game
» Gimme 5: 2009 non-playoff teams for 2010 postseason
» Brooks: Early 2010 award predictions

Watch now
» NFLN debate: Which teams will reach Super Bowl XLV?

Also
» Marshall to Dolphins among 2010's impact moves
» Immense pressure put on Chargers rookie RB
» Tough being the guy replacing The Guy
» Texans lead list of new contenders

2010 team previews, predictions
» NFC EAST: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Redskins
» NFC NORTH: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
» NFC SOUTH: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
» NFC WEST: Cardinals | 49ers | Seahawks | Rams
» AFC EAST: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
» AFC NORTH: Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
» AFC SOUTH: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
» AFC WEST: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers

Therefore, on the day we honor Coach Lombardi, it is fitting that I write this column trying to predict the Super Bowl XLV champion who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. That's not an easy task this year (or frankly any year in this league). The preseason offers some clues, but the preseason also often fools us into believing a team has Super Bowl qualifications, when they don't.

For example, last year the Giants looked super, starting 5-0 and having the look of a Super Bowl team. Then injuries set in, and they could not overcome their deficiencies, which resulted in not even making the playoffs. That raises this question: Will the same thing happen to the Packers this year?

Green Bay has looked super, mowing the ball at ease on defenses and having the look --and feel -- of a Super Bowl team. Is it too early, or better yet, too obvious to pick the Packers?

Al Davis used to call me for information when I worked for the Raiders. Whenever I would give him something that might seem too obvious, he would say, (not politely), "I could have gotten that in the paper." The benefit of those conversations has always forced me to try and think outside the box, not fall for the obvious and look deep below the surface for hidden clues.

What we know is this: The 2010 NFL champion will be a team that has mental toughness, can win all the short-yardage situations, is very effective in the red zone and can score points.

The team that wins the Super Bowl will be in the top 10 of first-half point differential, and in the top five of rushing and passing attempts combined. We also know the Super Bowl champ, on defense, will be able to rush the passer, run a complex scheme and be physical. That's how you create turnovers.

We also know home-field advantage is important, but not a necessity. We know the first week bye is nice, but also not a necessity. And we know, above and beyond everything, the Super Bowl champ will have a quarterback who plays at an extremely high level.

So who fits this profile?
NFC forecast

The defending Super Bowl champs fit this profile perfectly. The Saints have all the ingredients to repeat, but even though they appear better on paper this year, history says repeating in the NFL is a difficult task.

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The Vikings meet all the requirements to be in the big game, but there are some doubts that Brett Favre can duplicate his season from a year ago. Favre is even unsure himself whether he can return to his '09 form, when he enjoyed a career year at age 40. Asking for another career year at his age (he will wake up 41 the day after the Vikings open up against the Saints next week) is probably unreasonable.

Without wide receiver Sidney Rice, the Vikings will face more man-to-man press coverage this year, and most teams will copy Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' attacking style when facing Favre, who will need to prove early that he can move around and work the pocket with his bum ankle.

The Packers have that Super Bowl look to them. They are explosive on offense, and their defense can rush well enough to balance their deficiencies in the back end, where there are concerns with their ability to cover.

But, like the Saints from a year ago, Green Bay can manufacture defense with the versatility of defensive coordinator Dom Capers' scheme. The Packers are not perfect, but they fit the profile of a Super Bowl team. Yes, I know they are the obvious pick today, but I also know they look good on paper and even better on tape.

The team hosting the Super Bowl in 2010, the Dallas Cowboys, has not looked like a Super Bowl team in the preseason. On paper they meet the criteria, but on the field and in the film room they have some issues to overcome.

I know offensive coordinator Jason Garrett played it close to the vest this summer, not doing creative things to show his hand. Plus, the Cowboys are too talented to not move the ball this year, so this preseason blip should not be worrisome. What should, though, is their lack of talent and depth on the offensive line.

The Cowboys also need wide receiver Dez Bryant to be a playmaker, just not a rookie who tries to blend into the offense. Bryant is explosive and will be counted on to make the Cowboys offense more explosive. He isn't expected to be a role player for them this year, but rather a significant one who can take some of the burden off of Miles Austin, something that Roy Williams has been unable to accomplish.

The 49ers have a talented defense that is mentally tough, but on offense they are far from fitting the profile. They are going to play in many tight games, in part because their defense will keep them in every game, but also because they won't be able to score early enough to put games away. If they had made the trade for Donovan McNabb, they would be my pick, but they decided against it. Now they must live and die with Alex Smith at quarterback. My sense is they will die.
AFC forecast

There are so many teams that fit the profile that it makes it hard to pick just one. The Colts will always be standing in the final playoff line near the end of the season because of Peyton Manning and because they fit the profile of Super Bowl teams perfectly. With Manning running the offense and running back Joseph Addai looking more powerful, the Colts will be as good on offense as they were a year ago. With a defense that is very fast and most effective in the red zone, the Colts are a tough team to beat.
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Same can be said about the Chargers, who I feel will be better this season offensively because of the new addition of rookie running back Ryan Matthews. The Chargers have been close before, but they have the kind of team that can play any style and win. Coach Norv Turner, who is still one of the top play-callers in the league, has done a great job with the offense.

The Dolphins are a solid team that can execute with physical toughness. Even though they have a tough schedule, they are one of the toughest-minded team's in the league, which fits the profile. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall, who was acquired in the offseason, has to be explosive, consistent and healthy all year to make an impact.

The Bengals, Steelers and Ravens are all really good teams that meet the criteria and could be Super Bowl contenders, but can they endure the struggles of playing in the AFC North? These teams might beat up on one another all season, resulting in losing critical players. As much as I like all three, I know the NFL is a war of attrition.

The Jets are everyone's preseason pick because they finished so strong last season. Expectations are high in New York, but the team has some concerns on the offensive line at left guard. The Jets have to play their style, or else they will not even make the playoffs.
The verdict

So, where do all these breakdowns lead us? I am not avoiding the issue by breaking down so many teams, but I want to make sure my thought process is clear and leave no stone unturned. I don't want to be accused of being obvious.

Therefore, without further ado, I believe Super Bowl XLV will feature the Chargers and Packers playing for the title. I love the Packers to win it all this year because they fit the profile and their experience from last season has left them hungry for more. The Packers are talented, well-coached and have youthful players that will improve as the season goes along. They also have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers present a deadly combination, a team that would make Coach Lombardi proud.

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Not to trend or agree, but it's easy to see NFL history.....not just short-term, but long-term is the common precedent: Prime NFL QB's in their late 20-'s/early 30's. ARod is elite now as all hell. His skills are off the charts. Brett did it at 27. Joe Montana did it in his late 20's. Manning did in in his 20's. Name any great NFL QB from the 70's/80's...Bradshaw, etc....They all do it in their primes.

ARod right now is elite. Praise Jon Gruden as that guy knows what he's talking about lately. Arod is what??? 26 or so and is blowing up stats, etc. but really our WINDOW is now to win the SuperBowl. Arod has probably 10 seasons+ of greatness, but great QB's win SuperBowls and historically great QB's (regardless of their great careers) win their SuperBowls before they reach 30 years of age. Brady did it repeatedly.....Now he may never win one again. Age works against the greatest of QB's as far as championships and SuperBowls. They may put up the stats, but again and again, under 30 QB's win it. Brees was 30 and now is done for example. Elway is the only old QB to win some late, and the was more the product of an MVP RB, great D, great coach, and his horse teeth.

This is Arod's year....and we have a short window of 4 more years till he's 30. His talent is off the charts and wouldn't be surprised if he MVP'd and we win the Super Bowl this year. Arod's talent is the best of any (even old ass 34 year old Manning, and 33 year old gimpy Brady) at this point.

[Bucksfans1and2]

I've written papers for school shorter and with less filler than that post. Please stop you're becoming the Packers Board version of MBBOT