New QB Rating Stat

Post #1 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 1:51 pm

I know a lot of guys on here love stats so I thought I'd bring this up. From Peter King:

ESPN will release this week a proposal for a new passer rating, called the Total QBR, or Total Quarterback Rating. It has been developed by several quarterbackmeisters at the network -- most notably Trent Dilfer -- and by some stat heads in the network's production analytics department. The point: Passer rating, developed in 1973 to measure a passer's efficiency, does that, but it doesn't necessarily measure what makes a quarterback great.

So the analysts at ESPN have taken every game played in the NFL since 2008 and measured the quarterback's contribution to the result on every play except handoffs. They say they've divined a system to rate quarterback performance in every game, and for full seasons, on a scale of 1 to 100 (no more 158.3 rating).

"This is a game-changer,'' Dilfer said. "Mark my words: This is the number scouts and coaches and the media will use to quantitatively discuss and judge the ability of quarterbacks going forward.''

If it sticks, of course. You know how the sporting public (and the larger American public) is with new ideas. But judge for yourself. ESPN will explain the proposed Total QBR in a special Friday night show at 8 Eastern with Dilfer and the Monday night crew -- Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden.

Passer rating has probably declined in significance, with some of the smarter analysts all but ignoring it. But it still has juice. The problem, of course, is that in passer rating, so much is ignored. A series of short completions with big yards after the catch mean the same thing as a series of harder-to-complete long passes. The ESPN formula weighs out the yards after the catch, and weighs in things like lost fumbles in the pocket and sacks taken. And timing. A 17-yard completion in a tie game with two minutes left gets a quarterback more credit than the same completion in the middle of the first quarter -- as it should.

"We've included every play that a quarterback has direct control over,'' said Jeff Bennett, the senior director of production analytics at ESPN. "We think a rating system should evaluate all the quarterback's contributions in the context of the game.''

It's be interesting to see if the Total QBR gets traction and usurps passer rating. I think we're ready for a system that scores on a scale of 1 to 100, takes more factors into account than passer rating, and involves the measurement of so-called clutch play. Like OPS (on-base plus slugging) and WAR (wins above replacement value) in baseball, it's time for a more thoughtful number to judge how quarterbacks play. Is this the one? I don't know. But I like rethinking passer rating.

Badgerlander · Post #2 » by **Badgerlander** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 1:55 pm

a system that scores on a scale of 1 to 100

I think this is probably the biggest complaint about the current rating.

trwi7 · Post #3 » by **trwi7** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 1:58 pm

Sounds much better than what they use now but I don't think it's going to stick. The only people that are going to be able to calculate are the stat heads whose job it is to go through every play to see when the pass was caught and how many yards were gained after the catch. The only way it works is if they force feed it to the public on ESPN.

LUKE23 · Post #4 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 1:58 pm

The factor of weighing a two yard out that goes 50 yards because of blocking and a 50 yard thread the needle pass differently is a very good one. That was my primary issue with the prior QB rating.

Aaron It Out · Post #5 » by **Aaron It Out** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 1:59 pm

trwi7 wrote:Sounds much better than what they use now but I don't think it's going to stick. The only people that are going to be able to calculate are the stat heads whose job it is to go through every play to see when the pass was caught and how many yards were gained after the catch. The only way it works is if they force feed it to the public on ESPN.

I can pretty much guarantee you that will happen.

Post #6 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 2:06 pm

Since it's ESPN you can bet they will force feed it on us. I don't like any stat that you can't calculate yourself. I guess this is better than the current rating system but I think most fans just look at TD's, INT's and yards.

LUKE23 · Post #7 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 2:10 pm

Yards per attempt, TD% and INT% to me are the best non QB rating stats to measure a QB. Total yards really shouldn't matter, as many times they are a factor of the offense that is run.

Post #8 » by **Icness** » Wed Aug 3, 2011 1:13 am

I know of at least a couple of teams that use something more like ESPN's new thing in evaluating QB draft prospects, and it is on a 1-100 scale. They break down how far each ball went in the air as opposed to the yardage gained on the play. I like it and I sort of do it mentally in my own evaluations. It's why I like Colin Kaepernick and think Jake Locker will never get a second NFL contract. I'm interested in how much weight they give to time standards and game situation. I mean, can John Beck get a 95 rating for a 4th quarter where he is 11-13 for 162 yards and 3 TDs but the Skins were losing 30-3 at the start? That was always one of my big problems with QB ratings. Tangentally it's why I find Dan Marino incredibly overrated and vastly inferior to Kurt Warner.

And yes, you can bet that if ESPN develops it, we will be forcefully beaten over the head with it until it becomes the industry standard.