ImageImage

GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC

Moderators: paulpressey25, MickeyDavis, humanrefutation

User avatar
Turk Nowitzki
RealGM
Posts: 23,426
And1: 3,137
Joined: Feb 26, 2010
Location: on the Hellmouth
     

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#201 » by Turk Nowitzki » Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:10 pm

trwi7 wrote:Turn the ball over 4 times in less than 3 quarters, only have a 3 point lead despite your defense holding the opponent to 14 total yards and yeah, people are probably going to be frustrated and annoyed. Crazy, I know.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was alluding to. Maybe everyone is just getting used to the turnovers by now. :(
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#202 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:24 pm

I rag on Horni as well with some of these terrible throws. Wasn't on here when he had the first one but he's not without criticism. I just think it piles up for me that every fan thinks that we should recruit Andrew Luck every year.

It's weird, because I don't think the problem isn't really with his decision making in the truest sense. It's not like he's throwing the ball into double coverage like Brett Favre. Nate Stanley probably has the arm strength to get the ball out to Taylor on the opening pick 6 and at least put it in a position where it's incomplete at worst. Hornibrook's poor decision-making is that he throws picks on balls that he does not have the ability to make (sometimes). He has the ability to get a sharp pass to the sideline, but there will be 3-4 that he doesn't step into and puts it in harm's way.

Most of Horni's bad picks are balls that he thinks he can hit a 17 yard corner route on and floats a 14 yard ball to the dback standing in front of the guy in zone coverage. The throw is there if he's got the arm strength, but on a handful of throws per game, he doesn't.

The pick on the long pass probably couldn't be thrown away since I don't think anyone else was even out on a route and you take the shot with 1-on-1 with Davis. Compounding it is the fact that Horni can't escape out of the pocket to throw that one away.
User avatar
JimmyTheKid
Head Coach
Posts: 6,073
And1: 1,871
Joined: Feb 10, 2009

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#203 » by JimmyTheKid » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:04 pm

Maybe the greatest defensive performance I've ever seen. This team will be in the playoffs if it wins two more.
midranger
RealGM
Posts: 31,208
And1: 2,619
Joined: May 12, 2002

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#204 » by midranger » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:45 pm

No one is expecting Andrew luck every year.

Maybe Scott Tolzien every other year. Some one who makes use of our traditionally dominant running game to accurately hit wide open receivers in play action and not turn the ball over like a maniac. Maybe with an ounce of pocket presence or escapability.

We've lacked a guy even near that very low bar for 6 years.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#205 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:05 pm

midranger wrote:No one is expecting Andrew luck every year.

Maybe Scott Tolzien every other year. Some one who makes use of our traditionally dominant running game to accurately hit wide open receivers in play action and not turn the ball over like a maniac. Maybe with an ounce of pocket presence or escapability.

We've lacked a guy even near that very low bar for 6 years.


As a junior, Scott Tolzien threw for 7.7 Yards/attempt, 64%, 16 TDs/11 INTs.

In conference that year, he threw 12 TDs and 8 INTs on 60%. He racked up more yards than Hornibrook because

As a redshirt sophomore, Alex Hornibrook has thrown for 9 yards/attempt, 64%, 17 TD/12 INT.

I agree that Hornibrook is a bit more prone to INTs. 11 in conference this year with 2 games left. Tolzien also took a pretty nice leap for his final season in terms of turnovers, though his running game was much better then.

I'm saying the bar should be pretty damn low. I'd rather have Stanley, but he threw for 41 yards on the road this week. Beyond that, take a look at what Demry Croft/Connor Rhoda, Jeff George Jr, Blough/Sindelar, and that **** transfer for Nebraska are doing this year. I know I'll get the "we're a way better program" response to that, but the QBs in this area of the country suck. And when there are good ones, they go to Oklahoma State to throw the ball 60 times/game or go to Ohio State.

Totally agree that Hornibrook's massive weaknesses in mobility and throwing picks is the difference-maker for him. But he also gets it done over the middle and touch passes to the sideline more than a lot of guys that we've had. He's not the best we've had in the past few decades, but he's not really much different.

I do agree that the bar could be slightly higher and I'll throw the coaching change/injury (Gary Andersen) excuse out there. Budamyr/Phillips, as Bern said, both had injury issues. That pretty much made Stave the de facto guy for 3 years. Houston apparently didn't "get it" until the very end. After that, you have an empty cabinet for Chryst to fill. He's been here a while, but he now has one upperclassman (not even if RS isn't counted) that is "his guy." I think when we've got junior/senior Horni, Coan, and the next guy all in the house, things will look better.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#206 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:49 pm

On a lighter/more positive note: Cannot say enough about Connelly, Edwards, and Jacobs. Edwards is just truly a beast through and through and has been key for a few years now. Connelly and Jacobs are the program guys that are the lifeblood of this program. Walk-on or very unheralded recruits that contribute in any way possible and now are impact players. Connelly was blowing the **** up out of any of Stanley's checkdowns.
User avatar
Bernman
RealGM
Posts: 19,246
And1: 2,288
Joined: Aug 05, 2004
Location: Into the Great White Nothing
   

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#207 » by Bernman » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:23 am

Kerb Hohl wrote:As a junior, Scott Tolzien threw for 7.7 Yards/attempt, 64%, 16 TDs/11 INTs.

In conference that year, he threw 12 TDs and 8 INTs on 60%. He racked up more yards than Hornibrook because

As a redshirt sophomore, Alex Hornibrook has thrown for 9 yards/attempt, 64%, 17 TD/12 INT.

I agree that Hornibrook is a bit more prone to INTs. 11 in conference this year with 2 games left. Tolzien also took a pretty nice leap for his final season in terms of turnovers, though his running game was much better then.

I'm saying the bar should be pretty damn low...


Those stats by Hornibrook were compiled against cupcakes we couldn't have realistically lost to anyway. So they aren't very meaningful.

The real problem and difference between Hornibrook and our past starting quarterbacks who didn't get supplanted quickly (i.e.: DOB) is their play against above average major conference teams who we could realistically lose to.

Hornibrook adjusted qbr's: 29.8, 55.3, 78.6, 41, 45.8, 35.8, 50.7, 42.7

Stave adjusted qbr's: 95, 18, 37, 94.5, 80.3, 66.3, 74, 38.8, 69, 81, 51.1, 50.5, 99.1, 87.6, 9.3, 58.1, 77.1

Twice as many samples, but still very telling that the top 6 and 11 of 12 are for Stave. Not to mention he added a little value with his legs comparatively. Much more likely to help you win a game against good teams.

Also a little more to single-handedly lose you the game, with the bottom 2 ratings, albeit again on twice as many samples. But that's a minute amount of games comparatively having that effect.

We have college's version of a 40+ year old Peyton Manning. He's not getting benched until he pretty much has already lost us a game or more, so we just have to hope we have the 2015 Broncos' defense + running game if we're going to win big. Last game it looked like it, but most of this season it hasn't.

From what little I've seen of Coan, I do think he's the real deal and will be a significant upgrade in the future. May not be ready now, but I still think he'd be worth trying if we have serious designs on doing more than just winning the B1G West again this year.
Empty Blatter
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#208 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:15 pm

Bernman wrote:From what little I've seen of Coan, I do think he's the real deal and will be a significant upgrade in the future. May not be ready now, but I still think he'd be worth trying if we have serious designs on doing more than just winning the B1G West again this year.


I think that he'll get a serious look next year. Even more of a serious look if Hornibrook **** himself in one of the remaining games and they lose.
GB_Packers
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,662
And1: 539
Joined: Sep 09, 2013

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#209 » by GB_Packers » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:24 pm

Turk Nowitzki wrote:I'm glad I missed most of this one. Sounded like the most painful 38-14 win of all time.


It was domination by the Badgers. Iowa didn’t even sniff the red zone on offense if I remember correctly.
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 66,570
And1: 8,322
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:
       

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#210 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:23 pm

The Badgers have thrown dogsh*t QBs out there for my entire adult life. No one is asking for Luck, just someone they win because of, not in spite of.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#211 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:55 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:The Badgers have thrown dogsh*t QBs out there for my entire adult life. No one is asking for Luck, just someone they win because of, not in spite of.


And I'm just here to say that while:

A. I agree that Horni in many regards is a watered-down version of some of the solid QBs we had in the past 25 years.
B. He's put up some of his numbers this year against lesser competition.

He's 12th in the nation in QB rating.

I'll agree that may get some sneers, so take total QBR which may be a better stat in this case. He's 46th. He's right behind Josh Rosen. The "best QB in the Big Ten West," Clayton Thorson, is 41st.

The entire top 10 is littered with Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma QBs and also guys that are efficient as hell and good runners in Louisville's offense (Jackson) and Arizona's (Tate).

Final point being: Any non-blueblood program is looking for a QB they can win because of, not in spite of. Non-helmet schools that try to make up the bottom half of the top 20 on a yearly basis like Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, etc. can run a spread offense and get these recruits by throwing the ball 50 times/game with NFL-caliber WRs.

If you're trying to do that in the upper Midwest, sure, sometimes you can be Purdue in the early 2000s. More than likely, though, you're going to end up with a "dual-threat" QB that cannot throw the football (Minnesota/Illinois/Nebraska recently), or you will not have enough skill position players to make it work that well.
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 66,570
And1: 8,322
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:
       

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#212 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:25 pm

Maybe I just think the program should be able to recruit better, seeing as they've been one of the most successful in terms of wins for the last 15 years or so. I've seen very good QBs go to schools with a lot less recognition and tradition. Guys get drafted every year from programs that couldn't hold a candle to Wisconsin.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#213 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:46 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Maybe I just think the program should be able to recruit better, seeing as they've been one of the most successful in terms of wins for the last 15 years or so. I've seen very good QBs go to schools with a lot less recognition and tradition. Guys get drafted every year from programs that couldn't hold a candle to Wisconsin.


I wrote out a giant post earlier in the year so I won't rehash much.

A lot of Wisconsin QBs do make it to the pros. Lesser programs randomly get them but it's pretty random. Everyone passed on Romo and Wentz. I mean who are you talking about otherwise...Trevor Siemian? Michigan State has had a decent crop but they're in a slightly better location and it's not like they've had HOF guys. Purdue had a run of good QBs and now can't get anyone.

I just think that most fans see it as way too simple. "We're good, why can't we bring in better players now?" Ever take a look at why the Badgers are good? It's because they don't cut corners rule-wise, they don't spend tens of millions on coaches, don't promise recruits the world (clearly lying so the player ends up transferring), and don't try to be something they're not.

Take a look at the Wisconsin basketball program. If you could trade out the consistency of the past 20 years of both programs for 5 really good years and 20 rebuilding years, would you? I would not.

For better or worse, no 4/5 star QB is coming to the upper Midwest to run the ball 40 times/game. If one is born in Wisconsin and is our Sam Dekker and wants to stay home, then wonderful. Unfortunately, other than Tony Romo who nobody recruited, it appears that we still have yet to see that white knight at quarterback. There are still plenty of solid 3/4 star guys that are willing to develop in the pro style offense, but it's not as easy as it seems.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#214 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:58 pm

Here are where the top 20 rated total QBR QBs are from:

CA, TX, SC, FL, TX, GA, TX, GA, SC, AZ, TX, NJ, OH*, HI*, VA, KY*, TX, IN*, NC

If you go further down the list and eliminate MAC QBs with padded numbers, they're still all from CA, TX, OH, FL, NC, SC, etc.

* - The Ohio one plays for Iowa State and was unheralded, the Hawaii and Kentucky ones are non-power 5. The Indiana one went to Purdue, was not that great, and is now decent for LSU.

Anyways, Wisconsin generally gets corners, RBs, and WRs from TX, CA, OH, FL...but they are generally the 15th best or "worse" in the state.

Those players are all at helmet schools or at a school pretty close to where they went to high school. These guys aren't growing on trees in the midwest, and if they are, I'm still not sure I'm blaming them to go to Ohio State or Georgia and throw to AJ Green or Ted Ginn.
KidA24
Veteran
Posts: 2,965
And1: 907
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#215 » by KidA24 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:08 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:The Badgers have thrown dogsh*t QBs out there for my entire adult life. No one is asking for Luck, just someone they win because of, not in spite of.


I mean, they have had 4 guys who've had lengthy NFL careers go through the program in the past 25 years.

Bollinger, Sorgi, Wilson and Tolzien. The problem is, the offense has rarely changed to incorporate the talent at the QB position -- except when Chryst was the OC.

So, I have hope for them going forward that if they get that elite guy, they'll take advantage of his skillset.
Amos Barshad: "So you got a job, a place to live, a license? What’s left?"

Giannis: “Nothing. Just get a ring now.”
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 66,570
And1: 8,322
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:
       

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#216 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:11 pm

KidA24 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:The Badgers have thrown dogsh*t QBs out there for my entire adult life. No one is asking for Luck, just someone they win because of, not in spite of.


I mean, they have had 4 guys who've had lengthy NFL careers go through the program in the past 25 years.

Bollinger, Sorgi, Wilson and Tolzien. The problem is, the offense has rarely changed to incorporate the talent at the QB position -- except when Chryst was the OC.

So, I have hope for them going forward that if they get that elite guy, they'll take advantage of his skillset.


25 years, and the only QB to not be a punchline in the pros was a grad transfer. It's pathetic.
User avatar
chuckleslove
RealGM
Posts: 18,065
And1: 804
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
Location: The Banana Stand
Contact:
     

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#217 » by chuckleslove » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:34 am

5th, pretty much where I expected things to be. Win out and I don't think anyone has a chance to jump us at this point except maybe Georgia or Auburn if they were to win out and beat Bama but then Bama would probably fall below us. Also have Miami and Clemson still playing eachother so as it has been all season, win out and things should sort themselves out which is obviously no small task.
User avatar
RiotPunch
RealGM
Posts: 11,693
And1: 1,461
Joined: Jul 05, 2009
Location: La La Land
Contact:
     

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#218 » by RiotPunch » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:43 am

Win and we're in, no doubt about it.
Image
Don't Kidd yourselves.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 24,198
And1: 877
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#219 » by Kerb Hohl » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:47 am

ReasonablySober wrote:
KidA24 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:The Badgers have thrown dogsh*t QBs out there for my entire adult life. No one is asking for Luck, just someone they win because of, not in spite of.


I mean, they have had 4 guys who've had lengthy NFL careers go through the program in the past 25 years.

Bollinger, Sorgi, Wilson and Tolzien. The problem is, the offense has rarely changed to incorporate the talent at the QB position -- except when Chryst was the OC.

So, I have hope for them going forward that if they get that elite guy, they'll take advantage of his skillset.


25 years, and the only QB to not be a punchline in the pros was a grad transfer. It's pathetic.


6 Rose Bowls and a shot at the playoffs along with several top 10 finishes. Better sell their souls and change coaching/strategy to try to recruit the next 5-Star QB!

Gary Andersen’s tenure should tell you all you need to know. He wanted to move to a spread/dual-threat offense and shoot higher and he brought in a JuCo that couldn’t pass to save his life and all of his dual-threat QBs that he recruited are toiling away as backups at 2nd tier schools now.

I don’t think you realize how much more likely it is for them to bring in a bunch of duds than it is to bring in NFL studs or dynamic dual-threat guys.

Do you think Bielema and Chryst are/were actively trying NOT to recruit good QBs?
User avatar
trwi7
RealGM
Posts: 99,255
And1: 12,271
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
Location: Aussie bias
         

Re: GT: #25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin - 2:30 on ABC 

Post#220 » by trwi7 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:56 am

Does any team other than the top programs have good QB's year in and year out? I think Wisconsin has done okay in that regard.

In the last 15 years.

Bollinger - Ehh, not a really accurate passer but not completely horrible and could make plays with his legs.

Sorgi - Again, not a really accurate passer but he could get the ball downfield and had an almost 2/1 TD/INT ratio. Not elite but not terrible.

Stocco - I actually liked Stocco. A little better than a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. Almost 8 yards per attempt in his 3 years starting. Not a great completion percentage but good enough.

Donovan - Ehh. Decent enough passer and should've been a better runner than he was. Only started for a year but probably would've been better had he gotten another year.

Sherer/Evridge - Won't go so far as to call them a disaster but they were pretty bad.

Tolzien - I have no idea why anybody would **** on Tolzien. The only complaint is maybe the TD/INT ratio which was just shy of 2 to 1 but he completed 68% of his passes as a starter at almost 9 yards per attempt. What more are you going to ask out of a college QB?

Wilson - We already know

Stave - Got the ball downfield. Not very mobile and had some really bad mistakes but he was a perfectly fine college QB. Probably made to look worse than he really was because our top receivers after Abbrederis his first year were Jordan Frederick and Kenzel Doe and his second year were Jacob Pedersen and Jeff Duckworth and after Erickson in his third year were Sam Arneson and Kenzel Doe.

I think Hornibrook could potentially be a Stocco type if he stops with the awful mistakes and throws that are telegraphed. He has added some zip to the ball this year and maybe that's part of the problem now. He knows he added some zip so he thinks he can fit a ball in where he can't. Hopefully he can learn from that. We have some really nice talent at WR that can get open on the intermediate routes that Hornibrook is now able to hit. Obviously he needs to be protected because he can't scramble at all and hopefully he'll learn to just go down instead of trying to force a throw.
stellation wrote:"What's the difference between Gery Woelful and this glass of mineral water? The mineral water actually has a source."


I Hate Manure wrote:We look to be awful next season without Beasley.

Return to Green Bay Packers