An Overlooked Statistic

[jalenrose#5]

I was just looking over some stats, and the obvious ones come to mind.....the Jays only have 1 hitter batting better than .285 etc, the Jays don't hit well with RISP, with 0/1/2 outs, they don't run, they don't hit and run often.....the list can go on....


But watching the game last night, I overlooked a stat and that's On Base Percentage. I know the Yanks have really solid offence, but still, they have the likes of Jeter, Arod, Posada over .400 in OBP and for a solid OBP over .350, they have Giambi, Abreu, Cano, Cabrera, Matsui and Damon all over .350.

This team hits in the clutch yes.....but this team doesn't run that often, unless they pick their spots.

Meanwhile the Jays have only 3 players over .350, Frank Thomas (.378), Alex Rios (.358) and Matt Stairs (.353).

Again, you have guys on base, you can keep the pitcher occupied in hopes he makes a mistake.

The Jays rank 21st in OBP and really with a power lineup that the Jays have, they should be top 10 in the MLB easily....and they're not.

The Jays team as a whole have underachieved severely and I hope next year, their hitting shoes will be on, because I have no hope in them right now.....they win 3 in a row, they lose 3 in a row...

So there it is, OBP the forgotten statistic that the Jays need to improve. Somehow, this team needs to figure it out before it's too late.

[Modern_epic]

Ya, I noticed this a while ago, but in most cases our low OBP really is just because of low avg. Frank manages this in spite of that, and people who say he is underachieving need to look at this and realize what he does for the team. This is the only thing you can criticize Rios for this year; guys hitting .300 should do better than just scraping over .350 in OBP.

[The_Hater]

OBP is supposed to be one of those stats that 'moneyball' GM's like Billy Beane and JP put a lot of stock into. Beane still does a good job finding cheap players that find a way to get on base (like Jack Cust) but I've felt that JP has always failed miserably here. Almost like he doesn't believe the entire moneyball model that he was supposedly trained on.

[Modern_epic]

I'm not really sure how much I like it as a stat anyway. I know walks are worth something, but they aren't as valuable as a single like OBP implies. Combining it with slg% to make OPS nicely realizes that, but on its own I think it overvalues walks.

[jalenrose#5]

I'm not really sure how much I like it as a stat anyway. I know walks are worth something, but they aren't as valuable as a single like OBP implies. Combining it with slg% to make OPS nicely realizes that, but on its own I think it overvalues walks.

I value it a bit more I guess.....walks are very important and two of the best offences, the Red Sox and Yanks are very deliberate at the plate waiting for their pitches, and they know the strike zone.

The Jays tried to adopt that method of hitting with no success IMO. Their batters just don't have the eye at the plate.

Just a side note, the league average for OBP is around .345, the Jays are at .325 for a team average.

[OldNo7]

What a revelation! No guys on base....means no runs!

[Holmes]

The Yankees are very strong in the OBP department because of the slew of star players they carry that are high OBP players. Giambi, Rodriguez, Jeter, Abreu, Posada, and Matsui all have career OBP higher than .370. Contrast that with the fact that our strongest career OBP players are Overbay, Thomas and (you could make a case for) Glaus. But other than Thomas the other two don't even have career OBP that reaches .370. We have guys like Rios, Wells, Hill, Johnson, Lind who are high contact hitters that take few pitches and draw few walks.

Interestingly, it was only a year ago that we finished 4th in OBP behind offensive powerhouses Yankees, Red Sox and Indians.

The bottomline is that the Jays are not built as a team that gets on base even though J.P. is from the moneyball discipline. Last year when we were 4th in OBP it had more to do with the fact that we were knocking the cover off the ball as a team than the team being patient and drawing walks. So unless the hitting is on fire we will always have a hard time seeing men on base.

It's interesting that Oakland has one of the lowest team batting averages but they still manage to be in the middle of the pack (and better than us) in the OBP category.

[Michael Bradley]

I wouldn't say Ricciardi neglects OBP. Look at his last three big offensive acquisitions: Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus, and Lyle Overbay. All three are typically very good at getting on base. Gregg Zaun's only real offensive strength is OBP. Aaron Hill looked like a potential high OBP guy but he seems to have sacrificed that for a power increase. Rios and Wells are five tool players who you'd rather have hitting .300 with 30 HR. If those guys sacrifice average for walks, then they are not playing to their strengths.

The problem with the offense this year is not necessarily talent. Granted, this team badly needs another LHB (preferably in LF), and John McDonald even at his best this year has a .295 OBP, so a SS upgrade is also badly needed. The problem is a combination of overvaluing last season's offense and injury/underachievement. Not having depth on the bench when guys like Glaus, Johnson, Overbay, and Zaun went down with injuries also hurt (though Stairs has been awesome this year).

Look at Ricciardi's history of acquiring players. Only Shea Hillenbrand really deviates from the typical high OBP player (and even Shea was pulling .340 OBP's in Toronto). On-base percentage and hitting RHP has been a problem this year, but I don't think the offense is as bad as it has shown. Hopefully it's just one of those years.

[SDM]

Well, JP's philosophy kind of went out the window when Vernon Wells signed that deal. His K/BB ratio has always been sad for a cornerstone player, and don't get me started on his OBP. He's a glorified Torii Hunter, not a top ten outfielder.

[jalenrose#5]

Another thing I noticed...

I find the Jays hitters are FAR too patient at the plate. There's one thing to wait for a pitch that's hittable, but when your allowing fastballs inside and outside to pass without even a swing....you should be hit upside the head.

Reed Johnson, Troy Glaus, Aaron Hill, Gregg Zaun and at times, Frank Thomas are all guilty of that. One player that actually gets what I'm saying is Matt Stairs....he sees a pitch he likes....he takes a rip at it. Too many times I see Jays hitters taking 2-1 pitches or 2-0 pitches when those are prime hitting pitches most of the time.

The Yankees do it so well, they don't go out of the strike zone to swing, they make the pitcher work, but when their pitch is thrown, they hit it....one player that catches my attention is Robbie Cano, sure he swings at the curveball, but when the pitch has a little less movement, the ball is hammered.

[OldNo7]

Yet at the same time, Wells seems to swing at the first pitch no matter what it is on half of his at bats.

[jalenrose#5]

Yet at the same time, Wells seems to swing at the first pitch no matter what it is on half of his at bats.

Vernon is probably the only guy on the team that I want taking a few more pitches.

Look at what happened to Doc this year, he's been hittable, and the reason is because hitters are swingin early and often.....if Doc is on....it's a ground ball, but if the location isn't there....he's hit hard.

The Seattle Mariners have one of the best offences in the league and they strike out the least. They are very aggressive at the plate and remind me alot of the way the Jays were built to be like. A Solid pitching staff, outstanding BP and a power hitting lineup....only exception....Ichiro...which probably accounts for the difference in wins because he's a .300 hitter who actually runs.