ATL - 2023 Offseason: Gambing Suspensions

[RRyder823]

Well yeah, guys like Kelce and Kittle are exactly the ones I'm talking about. They are so good and there's so few of them out there, why aren't they getting paid the type of money these elite WRs always seem to get?

Case n point Kittle has only passed 1000 yards receiving twice on his career (one of which was just barley and the other 1300+ yards).

I think most would consider 1000 yards pretty much standard for a ok/good starting WR where as even for a guy like Kittle hes only passed it 2 of his 6 years (even discounting his rookie year 2 out 5). And only one where the production was on par with top with what would be a top end WR

The raw production just isn't there compared to WRs



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Kittle had some injury issues and 49ers have so many studs on offense so it's not the best idea to look at his raw stats imo. Even then, he signed his contract right after he had those two 1000+ yard seasons back to back so I don't see your point, especially considering that some guys are more valuable than their production would suggest.

Just look at A.J. Brown and his production before getting that 4 year, 100 mil contract. I think it was pretty obvious he was capable of more in the right situation and he got paid accordingly so it's not like it's all about production.

Kittle actually had better stats in comparison before signing an extension as well fwiw so I don't get why elite TEs don't at least get comparable money unless I'm overrating their impact.

Here's the thing though. Even Kittles absolute best year he wouldn't have ranked as a top 5 WR this past season. For as much of a beast Kelce was this past season (and he was) if you put his production up against Elite WRs like Adams, Hill, Brown this past season he's comming in behind all of them.

You asked why they weren't payed on par. I gave an answer. You just don't get the raw production out of the position when compared with WRs. We can talk about how they present "mismatchs" all day but so do wideouts so if it's not creating additional catches, yards etc etc on par with the other position why should they get paid more? If two players catch 6 passes for 60 yards and a TD is one really more impactfull if he's listed as a TE? Or are they both just solid WRs?

Like I said you can make an argument for the Kelces of the world to make that kind of money but that's also a one of one situation in the league currently

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[ReasonablySober]

I think it's an interesting discussion that ventures into Moneyball territory. If you believe TEs are currently undervalued (and I think they are), and WRs are overvalued (yes), then a smart organization would take advantage of it and load up with cheaper, high impact TEs because they aren't as costly in a salary capped sport.

New England has come the closest. In 2011 their offensive leaders were Wes Welker, a small dude who caught a billion passes at under 13 yards per reception, Gronk (90 rec), Hernandez (79 rec), and Green-Ellis (667 yards rushing).

2nd in yards, 3rd in points, 13-3 record, lost in the Owl.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I think it's an interesting discussion that ventures into Moneyball territory. If you believe TEs are currently undervalued (and I think they are), and WRs are overvalued (yes), then a smart organization would take advantage of it and load up with cheaper, high impact TEs because they aren't as costly in a salary capped sport.

New England has come the closest. In 2011 their offensive leaders were Wes Welker, a small dude who caught a billion passes at under 13 yards per reception, Gronk (90 rec), Hernandez (79 rec), and Green-Ellis (667 yards rushing).

2nd in yards, 3rd in points, 13-3 record, lost in the Owl.

New England tried to do it again with Smith and Henry but that didn't work out as well.

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[ReasonablySober]

I think it's an interesting discussion that ventures into Moneyball territory. If you believe TEs are currently undervalued (and I think they are), and WRs are overvalued (yes), then a smart organization would take advantage of it and load up with cheaper, high impact TEs because they aren't as costly in a salary capped sport.

New England has come the closest. In 2011 their offensive leaders were Wes Welker, a small dude who caught a billion passes at under 13 yards per reception, Gronk (90 rec), Hernandez (79 rec), and Green-Ellis (667 yards rushing).

2nd in yards, 3rd in points, 13-3 record, lost in the Owl.

New England tried to do it again with Smith and Henry but that didn't work out as well.

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Yes and no. They tried to do the dual TE route, but they also spent big in free agency on two TEs that had never shown to be remotely special. I mean the signed Smith to a 4 year, $50,000,000 contract, including a $15,000,000 signing bonus, $31,250,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $12,500,000. Dude hadn't had more than 41 receptions or more than 450 yards in any season in four years.

Basically they made two deals no one liked from the moments they were signed.

[Dennis Reynolds]

Case n point Kittle has only passed 1000 yards receiving twice on his career (one of which was just barley and the other 1300+ yards).

I think most would consider 1000 yards pretty much standard for a ok/good starting WR where as even for a guy like Kittle hes only passed it 2 of his 6 years (even discounting his rookie year 2 out 5). And only one where the production was on par with top with what would be a top end WR

The raw production just isn't there compared to WRs



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Kittle had some injury issues and 49ers have so many studs on offense so it's not the best idea to look at his raw stats imo. Even then, he signed his contract right after he had those two 1000+ yard seasons back to back so I don't see your point, especially considering that some guys are more valuable than their production would suggest.

Just look at A.J. Brown and his production before getting that 4 year, 100 mil contract. I think it was pretty obvious he was capable of more in the right situation and he got paid accordingly so it's not like it's all about production.

Kittle actually had better stats in comparison before signing an extension as well fwiw so I don't get why elite TEs don't at least get comparable money unless I'm overrating their impact.

Here's the thing though. Even Kittles absolute best year he wouldn't have ranked as a top 5 WR this past season. For as much of a beast Kelce was this past season (and he was) if you put his production up against Elite WRs like Adams, Hill, Brown this past season he's comming in behind all of them.

You asked why they weren't payed on par. I gave an answer. You just don't get the raw production out of the position when compared with WRs. We can talk about how they present "mismatchs" all day but so do wideouts so if it's not creating additional catches, yards etc etc on par with the other position why should they get paid more? If two players catch 6 passes for 60 yards and a TD is one really more impactfull if he's listed as a TE? Or are they both just solid WRs?

Like I said you can make an argument for the Kelces of the world to make that kind of money but that's also a one of one situation in the league currently

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I just gave you an example of a guy who had clearly worse stats than Kittle and got paid significantly more so I don't exactly see how you proved your point. Amari Cooper is another guy who had clearly worse stats than Kelce and even though they got paid the same offseason, Amari still got way more money. I'm sure I can find many more examples but the point is that I don't get why TEs get paid less even when they outproduce WRs.

And yes, the whole, there are only few TEs out there that are truly elite makes the whole thing even more baffling to me cause that should make them even more valuable if anything.

[BUCKnation]

Elite TE's are worth it, but only Kelce is elite currently imo. Kittle had a nice resurgence but has a hard time staying on the field. Waller is the same. Everyone else is a dime a dozen, even someone who looked like a surefire elite TE in Pitts did nothing last year.

History has shown that the longevity of elite level TE's is not great and thus, dumping a bunch of money into that position is likely going to get you weighed down with these deals. Just look at the Pats recently post Gronk.

[sdn40]

The bust rate is crazy enough trying to find one. Can't imagine how many picks you'd have to light on fire to find two

[MoMM]

The bust rate is crazy enough trying to find one. Can't imagine how many picks you'd have to light on fire to find two

Yes, that's why I think it might be easier to throw some crazy money when their 1st contract is gone if they are really elite (Gronk, etc). The other team won't match 20M for a TE, but for a WR they would. I also think the comparison is not only about stats (TD/yards/catches/etc), they open the field in other ways, other teams have to plan differently and they are always there when you need those few yards to get a 1st down.

[RRyder823]

Kittle had some injury issues and 49ers have so many studs on offense so it's not the best idea to look at his raw stats imo. Even then, he signed his contract right after he had those two 1000+ yard seasons back to back so I don't see your point, especially considering that some guys are more valuable than their production would suggest.

Just look at A.J. Brown and his production before getting that 4 year, 100 mil contract. I think it was pretty obvious he was capable of more in the right situation and he got paid accordingly so it's not like it's all about production.

Kittle actually had better stats in comparison before signing an extension as well fwiw so I don't get why elite TEs don't at least get comparable money unless I'm overrating their impact.

Here's the thing though. Even Kittles absolute best year he wouldn't have ranked as a top 5 WR this past season. For as much of a beast Kelce was this past season (and he was) if you put his production up against Elite WRs like Adams, Hill, Brown this past season he's comming in behind all of them.

You asked why they weren't payed on par. I gave an answer. You just don't get the raw production out of the position when compared with WRs. We can talk about how they present "mismatchs" all day but so do wideouts so if it's not creating additional catches, yards etc etc on par with the other position why should they get paid more? If two players catch 6 passes for 60 yards and a TD is one really more impactfull if he's listed as a TE? Or are they both just solid WRs?

Like I said you can make an argument for the Kelces of the world to make that kind of money but that's also a one of one situation in the league currently

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I just gave you an example of a guy who had clearly worse stats than Kittle and got paid significantly more so I don't exactly see how you proved your point. Amari Cooper is another guy who had clearly worse stats than Kelce and even though they got paid the same offseason, Amari still got way more money. I'm sure I can find many more examples but the point is that I don't get why TEs get paid less even when they outproduce WRs.

And yes, the whole, there are only few TEs out there that are truly elite makes the whole thing even more baffling to me cause that should make them even more valuable if anything.

A grand total of 1 (Kelce) TE broke 1000 yards receiving last year. 40 WRs had more then 60 catches versus only 5 TEs (was wrong when I said 3 earlier) Where are all these TEs out producing WRs?

Yes WRs that didn't post game breaking numbers have gotten paid but there's a few things to think about. 1: There's more upside potential from betting on a WR to get to say 1200 yards versus hoping a TE can do that and 2: When a guy like Kelce comes up its much cheaper to make him the highest paid at his position since there's very few TEs are commanding a salary to continually drive up the price of the position



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[MoMM]

The gap between elite TEs and the rest is like Rodgers/Favre and the rest of NFC North QBs for the past 30 years.

[Treebeard]

When the dust settles in NJ, what role does Zach Wilson have? Does he have the maturity to play backup to Rogers, after being a sometime starter?

The Jets other last year sometime starter, Mike White has moved on to Miami, where he may see a fair amount of PT, depending on Tua's health

[MickeyDavis]

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[humanrefutation]

When the dust settles in NJ, what role does Zach Wilson have? Does he have the maturity to play backup to Rogers, after being a sometime starter?

The Jets other last year sometime starter, Mike White has moved on to Miami, where he may see a fair amount of PT, depending on Tua's health

Apparently Wilson and Rodgers are buddies. Maybe that could work out?

[MickeyDavis]

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[MickeyDavis]

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[M-C-G]

I was talking to a buddy last night and we came up with a wild thought. What if Tua gets another concussion and they lure Brady out of retirement to win a super bowl?

How do I put like 100 on this situation happening and Brady winning super bowl MVP and Dolphins winning it all? And how much could I make if I do that bet before the season starts?


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[Profound23]

Can't believe Jonah Williams. He is not a great at LT and would be perfect at RT.

I understand wanting to make sure you get paid like a LT but he has been a big reason Joe is getting crushed from his left side.

[Carioca]

Can't believe Jonah Williams. He is not a great at LT and would be perfect at RT.

I understand wanting to make sure you get paid like a LT but he has been a big reason Joe is getting crushed from his left side.

I think when he came out in the draft, didn't most people expect his best spot to be guard because he had short arms?

[Profound23]

Can't believe Jonah Williams. He is not a great at LT and would be perfect at RT.

I understand wanting to make sure you get paid like a LT but he has been a big reason Joe is getting crushed from his left side.

I think when he came out in the draft, didn't most people expect his best spot to be guard because he had short arms?

His comparisons were Bulaga and yes they said either RT or guard. I think he would make the perfect RT for their team but I understand wanting to make LT money. I just think he would be paid more as a top 5 RT than a below average LT.

[Profound23]

If there is any truth of Lamar to the Pats (as a possibility) I trade Aaron to the Jets for a 2024 1st and I am good.

First off the 13th pick this year is probably equal to the 23rd pick next year. Second off, if Lamar goes to the Pats and Tua/Lamar/Josh Allen stay healthy.....the Jets could be the last place team in that division and we could be staring at a top 10 pick like Seattle did with Russell Wilson.