2023 NFL Draft Thread - Round 1 Thursday 7:00 PM

LUKE23 · Post #21 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 4:40 pm

Do I dare ask what Bakhtiari's hits are?

Post #22 » by **ReasonablySober** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 4:47 pm

Treebeard wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
Treebeard wrote:Rube question: IF Rogers were to retire/be traded (depending on timing), what are the financial implications for the 2023 draft? If there's that big dead cap hit, does it make more sense to load up with earlier picks, or trade back, or out of the early rounds for 2023 and accept that 2023 is a lost cause across the board?

If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. The team taking on his salary would be on the hook for a $15.79 million cap hit in 2023, with much larger charges down the line.

It's hard for me to envision him being traded before the draft, unless the Packers somehow go scorched Earth and clear the books somehow in an effort to take as much of a cap hit as possible next season and be (relatively) free and clear in 2024.

I realize there's a huge potential gap in cap problem, but what draft route would make more sense, if they had the deal in place to trade Rogers after June 1? Load up, or trade back or out of the early rounds.

Similar question if Rogers says "**** it - I'm done" and takes the official retirement protocols?

I think it's unlikely that Rodgers' status has any impact on the 2023 draft. The Packers have holes all over the field. Particularly if they know he's going to be playing elsewhere or retired, I can't see them moving up significantly because their 2024 draft pick is likely to be very high.

If they have a pick in the 8-14 range I wouldn't have any problem moving back, though.

Post #23 » by **ReasonablySober** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 4:52 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Do I dare ask what Bakhtiari's hits are?

Here's what I've found on that front, if the Packers move on in 23:

There is no guaranteed money left for the Packers to pay. Therefore, the dead money would be exclusively prorated signing and restructure bonuses already paid that haven’t hit the cap yet. If the Packers decide to trade or release him in 2023, they would incur $23.1 million in dead money. However, the movement would open $6 million of cap space in 2023 and almost $33 million in 2024. That space would guarantee financial health for the final years of Aaron Rodgers‘ career and facilitate extensions with Elgton Jenkins, who would be the immediate replacement at left tackle, Rashan Gary, and Adrian Amos.

The other contractual option is for the Packers to keep Bakhtiari in 2023, hoping he can regain his old form. Then there would be another window to get out of the contract in 2024. If the Packers don’t restructure Bakhtiari again next offseason, the dead money in 2024 would be $11.5 million to $21.4 million in savings.

Given his huge cap number next season, I think it's a given that he's cut or traded next spring.

Wisky4life · Post #24 » by **Wisky4life** » Fri Nov 4, 2022 5:02 am

In my wierd way of draft rankings or how good a player will be, I like to base it off their name.

Jordan Addison is going to be a star WR in the league and I would love for us to draft him.

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Treebeard · Post #25 » by **Treebeard** » Fri Nov 4, 2022 12:51 pm

Wisky4life wrote:In my wierd way of draft rankings or how good a player will be, I like to base it off their name.

Jordan Addison is going to be a star WR in the league and I would love for us to draft him.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Probably as good as most methods :wink:

The guy that won our work NCAA BB tournament prediction pool two years running, selected teams based on who he thought would win a fight between team mascots.....

Wisky4life · Post #26 » by **Wisky4life** » Fri Nov 4, 2022 1:33 pm

I would love to hear a successful GM in any sport say he drafted players for 20 years based on something like that. Would mess up a whole generation of analytics and testing.

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CWoodfan · Post #27 » by **CWoodfan** » Fri Nov 4, 2022 1:38 pm

Wisky4life wrote:In my wierd way of draft rankings or how good a player will be, I like to base it off their name.

Jordan Addison is going to be a star WR in the league and I would love for us to draft him.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Who do you have taking over for Gutey as GM before the next draft?

Because we know Gutey is never taking a WR in round 1 of the NFL draft.

M-C-G · Post #28 » by **M-C-G** » Fri Nov 4, 2022 7:43 pm

Wisky4life wrote:I would love to hear a successful GM in any sport say he drafted players for 20 years based on something like that. Would mess up a whole generation of analytics and testing.

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The next generation would be naming their kids Max Power, Chisel Chest, Blunt Force and Cheetah McFastypants

Mark my words!

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Wisky4life · Post #29 » by **Wisky4life** » Fri Nov 4, 2022 8:15 pm

CWoodfan wrote:
Wisky4life wrote:In my wierd way of draft rankings or how good a player will be, I like to base it off their name.

Jordan Addison is going to be a star WR in the league and I would love for us to draft him.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Who do you have taking over for Gutey as GM before the next draft?

Because we know Gutey is never taking a WR in round 1 of the NFL draft.

I wouldn't mind switching up my job for a little bit.

I think Gute is there as long as Lafleur is there.

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Treebeard · Post #30 » by **Treebeard** » Fri Nov 4, 2022 8:51 pm

Wisky4life wrote:
CWoodfan wrote:
Wisky4life wrote:In my wierd way of draft rankings or how good a player will be, I like to base it off their name.

Jordan Addison is going to be a star WR in the league and I would love for us to draft him.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Who do you have taking over for Gutey as GM before the next draft?

Because we know Gutey is never taking a WR in round 1 of the NFL draft.
I wouldn't mind switching up my job for a little bit.

I think Gute is there as long as Lafleur is there.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

And they're probably safe till Murphy retires. Is that two or three years out?

Mags FTW · Post #31 » by **Mags FTW** » Sun Nov 6, 2022 1:54 pm

What's the deal with Dorian Thompson-Robinson? He doesn't make a lot of Top QB lists, but every time I put UCLA on when they are the late game, he's throwing and running all over people.

Team will be Top 10. Only loss is at Oregon. The only weakness I've seen is arm strength, but he looks pretty accurate. Like, I don't get how people salivated over Richardson but DTR can't crack Top 10 QB lists.

Post #32 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sun Nov 6, 2022 9:29 pm

We're officially in draft mode. The tank is on.

I think the top four is set in some way with

Anderson
Carter
Young
Stroud

With Levis possibly being 5th or higher. He's going to make GMs drool in workouts with his arm.

I think the Packers need to get into that top five regardless of how they feel about Love. But if they stay in the 6-10 range they'll get one of Quentin Johnston, Michael Mayer, Bijan Robinson, or maybe a tackle like Peter Skoronski.

Treebeard · Post #33 » by **Treebeard** » Sun Nov 6, 2022 11:15 pm

There's going to be several holes across the board that will need filling, one way or another. The OLine is so inconsistent and Bahktiari may be gone. Safety is going to be a problem - Savage should go and there's not much behind him, WRs are going to be a problem, even if Dobbs and Toure' shine the rest of the way this season and Watson can't stay on the field, Edge and LB depth?, RB? - is Jones gone as a cap casualty, and what does Rogers decide to do?

*edit* How could I forget.... TE too. Tonyan's the best of the lot and he scares no one. Deguara is just a guy and I've concluded Lewis is a cyborg. Either that, or he'll just fade back into stardust over time.

Matches Malone · Post #34 » by **Matches Malone** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 4:09 am

Read on Twitter

Post #35 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 2:15 pm

If the Packers end up with the #1 or #2 pick I hope they move down just enough to get Carter or Anderson. Go into next season with Love to see what he's got. If he sucks the team can think about Love's replacement in 2024.

Post #36 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 2:23 pm

I'm not a Bryce Young fan

RubberSoul · Post #37 » by **RubberSoul** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 3:00 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:I'm not a Bryce Young fan

Agreed plus he seems too small and slight to last in the NFL. I’d rather go with Love for a year and focus on 24 draft for next QB.

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Post #38 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 3:02 pm

I like Young but he's just way too small. Not even from just a height perspective but from his build. I'd worry about him getting crushed.

Ron Swanson · Post #39 » by **Ron Swanson** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 3:15 pm

Yeah, I remember it used to be a death sentence for elite QB prospects if you weren't at least 6'3, but the modern age draft zeitgeist has probably over-corrected too much (Kyler, Mayfield, etc.) and we've ignored how much of a liability it can be. Look at all the top guys right now (Allen, Herbert, Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson) and they all have prototype size for the position. Not a huge fan of Young.

Post #40 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 3:34 pm

First mock of the year? First mock of the year:

19. Michael Mayer
TE Notre Dame

39. Bijan Robinson
RB Texas

47.Zach Harrison
EDGE Ohio State

2024 ATL 1st
2024 TB 1st

Three rounds, traded down twice. Got the top two offensive weapons in the draft, a Gary-esque edge rusher, and two potentially high picks in 2024.