2019 Badger Football - Rose Bowl Lead Up

[MickeyDavis]

Interesting that 81% of bettors so far are taking the Badgers.

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[Kerb Hohl]

Cephus is eligible.

[midranger]

Cephus is eligible.

[Kerb Hohl]

Cephus is eligible.

Oh, yes...the guy I said I'd be fine with coming back to Wisconsin and playing football/going to school but understood the reasons for everything that happened in between. Haters [of which, there were none] gonna hate.

[StickeeFingaz]

Do we have a general college football thread? Whenever I see the turnover chain I think of this

[MickeyDavis]

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[Kerb Hohl]

If Coan has been that much better, you have to go with him.

If he struggles or loses a few games, time for Mertz. If he at least makes it long enough into the season (7-8 games in) then you can use Wolf and preserve Mertz's redshirt with 4 games. That's not the goal, of course, but if you can pull it off, it helps.

There won't be any reason for Mertz to transfer because assuming he redshirts this year, his choices next year are to either sit out somewhere else for an entire year to get a QB job or to be eligible at Wisconsin to still maybe win the job as a RS frosh and if he does not, be handed the starting job in 2021.

[MikeIsGood]

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With or without this context (though it's better with), cool with Coan getting the nod to start. It isn't often a true freshman QB comes in and is ready to play on a top 25 team (though I'm also hesitant we stay there, but I digress). We can look to get him some reps or even games if we or Coan specifically stumbles.

[DrWood]

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With or without this context (though it's better with), cool with Coan getting the nod to start. It isn't often a true freshman QB comes in and is ready to play on a top 25 team (though I'm also hesitant we stay there, but I digress). We can look to get him some reps or even games if we or Coan specifically stumbles.

When's the last time the Badgers recruited the #1 pocket passer in the high school class? Those are the guys who start as freshmen.

[MikeIsGood]

This is the Trevor Lawrence Fallacy. Past four years (all I had time to look-up) detailed below, and on quick glance it doesn't change the further you go back.

2019
1. Bo Nix (Auburn) - Starting
2. Graham Mertz (Wisconsin) - Not starting
3. Ryan Hilinski (South Carolina) - Not starting
4. Sam Howell (North Carolina) - Starting
5. Dylan Morris (Washington) - Not starting

2018
1. Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) - Started (lord and savior)
2. JT Daniels (USC) - Did not start (now starting)
3. Matt Corral (Ole Miss) - Did not start (now starting)
4. Tanner McKee (Stanford) - Did not start (religious mission trip)
5. Jack Tuttle (Utah/Indiana) - Did not start (transferred, still not starting)

2017
1. Davis Mills (Stanford) - Did not start (now backup)
2. Hunter Johnson (Clemson) - Did not start (transferred, still not starting)
3. Jake Fromm (Georgia) - Did not start, took over partway through year (now starting)
4. Kasim Hill (Maryland) - DId not start (then started, then transferred, now not starting)
5. Chris Robison (Oklahoma) - Did not start (dismissed from team, transferred, started for Florida Atlantic)

2016
1. Jacob Eason (Georgia) - Did not start, took over partway through year (then got injured, transferred, now not starting)
2. KJ Costello (Stanford) - Did not start (started Junior year)
3. Feleipe Franks (Florida) - Did not start (started partway through RS freshman year)
4. Austin Kendall (Oklahoma) - Did not start (transferred, still not starting)
5. Dwyane Haskins (Ohio State) - Did not start (started Junior year)

I understand that's what we all want, but it doesn't mean it's realistic or a given, and it doesn't mean Mertz won't still be great.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yes, and while I don't think Coan is going to be an absolute stud, the same "be patient" thing can be said about him. Everyone wanted to go to Coan last year because there was some recruiting talent there in him as compared to the slow, weak-armed Hornibrook. Then he was mediocre/not great for 5 games and he's been written off and everyone wanted the next guy. Sometimes, these guys take a little longer to click.

Also, I don't think Mertz was the #1 pocket passer/pro style QB unless it was on ESPN or some ranking that I haven't seen (he was close, though).

[MAC1987]

This is the Trevor Lawrence Fallacy. Past four years (all I had time to look-up) detailed below, and on quick glance it doesn't change the further you go back.

2019
1. Bo Nix (Auburn) - Starting
2. Graham Mertz (Wisconsin) - Not starting
3. Ryan Hilinski (South Carolina) - Not starting
4. Sam Howell (North Carolina) - Starting
5. Dylan Morris (Washington) - Not starting

2018
1. Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) - Started (lord and savior)
2. JT Daniels (USC) - Did not start (now starting)
3. Matt Corral (Ole Miss) - Did not start (now starting)
4. Tanner McKee (Stanford) - Did not start (religious mission trip)
5. Jack Tuttle (Utah/Indiana) - Did not start (transferred, still not starting)

2017
1. Davis Mills (Stanford) - Did not start (now backup)
2. Hunter Johnson (Clemson) - Did not start (transferred, still not starting)
3. Jake Fromm (Georgia) - Did not start, took over partway through year (now starting)
4. Kasim Hill (Maryland) - DId not start (then started, then transferred, now not starting)
5. Chris Robison (Oklahoma) - Did not start (dismissed from team, transferred, started for Florida Atlantic)

2016
1. Jacob Eason (Georgia) - Did not start, took over partway through year (then got injured, transferred, now not starting)
2. KJ Costello (Stanford) - Did not start (started Junior year)
3. Feleipe Franks (Florida) - Did not start (started partway through RS freshman year)
4. Austin Kendall (Oklahoma) - Did not start (transferred, still not starting)
5. Dwyane Haskins (Ohio State) - Did not start (started Junior year)

I understand that's what we all want, but it doesn't mean it's realistic or a given, and it doesn't mean Mertz won't still be great.

The next thing to look at with this list is who was the starter for these schools and have they had the streak of crappy QBs that WI has had?
At some point you have to stop going with the mediocre guy thats only better than the freshman behind him because of experience.
If Coan is only slightly better than Mertz it is the wrong decision in my opinion.


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[HaroldinGMinor]

I am glad they didn't just hand it to Mertz. He's got to earn it. Sending a bad message otherwise. Seen chatter from some nervous fans that are worried Mertz will transfer. If a player is that much of a diva that he leaves when he isn't handed a starting role as a true frosh then don't let the door hit you on your way out.

[Kerb Hohl]

The next thing to look at with this list is who was the starter for these schools and have they had the streak of crappy QBs that WI has had?
At some point you have to stop going with the mediocre guy thats only better than the freshman behind him because of experience.

This is somewhat true with some of those teams but again, the Badgers have had awful luck with QBs (the solid 3/4 star guys they've grabbed over the past decade have all gotten hurt or sucked) but they still haven't been that bad in the landscape of college football.

Haskins, Fromm, Lawrence were all great and also in dominant programs where they got buried (briefly). Costello was alright.

The rest of those guys...I'm sure there's a name or two where they will transfer and be great but the rest of that list is not all that inspiring. Maybe a bit of a turd in the punch bowl for the excitement on Mertz given that that group still has like a 60% bust rate but also the point is that it's not like all of those guys were absolute studs just buried at some dominant program.

If Coan is only slightly better than Mertz it is the wrong decision in my opinion.

Is there some sort of draft pick compensation that I'm not aware of for college teams now? You play to win every year.

I know the argument is that people want to see him and that he would have time to develop. Mertz will have plenty of time to develop either after a few losses this season or against some scrub teams next year.

[Kerb Hohl]

I am glad they didn't just hand it to Mertz. He's got to earn it. Sending a bad message otherwise. Seen chatter from some nervous fans that are worried Mertz will transfer. If a player is that much of a diva that he leaves when he isn't handed a starting role as a true frosh then don't let the door hit you on your way out.

Mertz would be stupid to transfer.

Here are his options:

Stay at Wisconsin:
-In 2019, he's a twisted ankle or a few **** performances from Coan from taking over as QB1, probably for good.
-If Coan plays well in 2019 and Mertz redshirts, he will be eligible and on the sideline for 2020 with the scenario right above this as a possibility again.
-The job will be handed to him in 2021 at worst.

Leave Wisconsin:
-Unless he leaves in the next few days or gets some sort of waiver, he will have to sit out all of 2020 with no chance to step in as QB.
-The earliest he'd get the job would be 2021.

[humanrefutation]

You play the best player. I don't care if he's a fifth year senior or a true freshman. It's not complicated, truly.

If Coan was the best QB on the roster, then that's that.

[MickeyDavis]

I don't see Mertz leaving because he wasn't handed the job on day 1. He committed early and never wavered. By all accounts Coan was clearly better in camp. He should start.

[MickeyDavis]

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[MikeIsGood]

You play the best player. I don't care if he's a fifth year senior or a true freshman. It's not complicated, truly.

If Coan was the best QB on the roster, then that's that.

And literally all reports I have seen (many) said that Coan was the best player. No one presented it as a particularly close race as the season has drawn near.

[MikeIsGood]

Big 2020 TE commit just popped up all over my social media feeds - Cam Large, likely one of our top overall targets. Coming here over Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, Georgia. Basically everyone.

6'5, 240lb out of Mass.