Re: Bears Lead-Up
Posted: Wed Sep 6, 2023 10:53 pm
Sports is our Business
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=161&t=2317629
MVP2110 wrote:
The Bears were favored in this game before Watson & Doubs were possibly going to miss it. Now I'm not saying the game is unwinnable but I certainly wouldn't put us as favorites in that scenario. A 1st time starting QB basically throwing to an entire pass catching unit of rookies is a tough situation to be in.
skones wrote:MVP2110 wrote:
The Bears were favored in this game before Watson & Doubs were possibly going to miss it. Now I'm not saying the game is unwinnable but I certainly wouldn't put us as favorites in that scenario. A 1st time starting QB basically throwing to an entire pass catching unit of rookies is a tough situation to be in.
As RonSwanson said, oddsmakers have been drunk. Yes he's a first time starting QB, but he's not a rookie and that's a very important distinction between the two. He's not being thrown into the fire, he's had a LONG time to prepare, and learn, and read defenses. I'd, without a doubt say that Love had better chemistry with Love and Watson than Rodgers did last season. Hell, wouldn't surprise me if Toure was a surprising safety blanket this week. I think Love has also put in the time with these guys, and they've developed a lot more chemistry than would be typical given the perception of them.
Love, through his first seasons on the bench, up until now, hasn't been afforded the bias that say Rodgers had been. These have been reps, through and through, with all of them. That's not, "these are my guys and these are the ones who will ACTUALLY be catching the ball." The mental edge, coupled with the catch em by surprise, plays to our advantage in a major way.
I DO think the Packers have cracked the code to a degree, by letting Rodgers learn and Love after him. Am I saying that Love will be a HOFer, absolutely not. Do I think we get that middling, maybe top 10-15 from him? Yes. The rest is gravy. I'd expect top 15 this year. And before you ask who, Stafford, Purdy, G. Smith (flash in the pan), Dobbs, Young, Ridder, Mayfield, Fields, Goff, Jones, Wilson, Garoppalo, Richardson, Stroud, Tannehill, Jones, are all guys I feel comfortable saying he'll be better than this year. I DO think Pickett, Carr, Watson, and Howell, are your, "Oh, he can do that?" guys along with Love. Something weird with Cousins going on, idk what to make of it. Same goes for Dak.
PS. What does a young, fast, dumb defense do? Kills the guy with the ball. We're not playing against a vet QB. Unless you think Fields is going to be calling audibles and reading our defense all day, and I don't. We can play straight up until he proves otherwise. And if he lights up through the air throwing to Claypool while Moore is blanketed by Jaire? Kudos. Tip to the cap. Eberflus aint the guy to bust that open IMO.
MVP2110 wrote:
On one hand I do agree that Vegas seems to be low on the Packers this year imo, but with that said when basically every sports book & national analyst is low on the Packers maybe it's not them being too low, maybe it's us being too high. I think if things break right for the Packers then we could win 10 or 11 games, but as we see right out of the gate, if we sustain any sort of injuries we don't have much depth. A WR group of Reed, Toure, Heath, & Wicks is not a winning WR room. If Love has to miss any time I have zero confidence in Clifford winning a game(only 8 of 32 QBs last year started all 17 games so chances are Love will miss atleast one game). There are reasons to be optimistic and reasons to be pessimistic this year basically and acting like we know which side is right and which is wrong is foolish to me
But Love just might not be good regardless of the preparation the past few years. That happens with like half of the QBs drafted in round 1. For whatever reason they just aren't good enough once you play them in real games. There's no fail safe formula or teams would stop drafting busts.skones wrote:MVP2110 wrote:
The Bears were favored in this game before Watson & Doubs were possibly going to miss it. Now I'm not saying the game is unwinnable but I certainly wouldn't put us as favorites in that scenario. A 1st time starting QB basically throwing to an entire pass catching unit of rookies is a tough situation to be in.
As RonSwanson said, oddsmakers have been drunk. Yes he's a first time starting QB, but he's not a rookie and that's a very important distinction between the two. He's not being thrown into the fire, he's had a LONG time to prepare, and learn, and read defenses. I'd, without a doubt say that Love had better chemistry with Love and Watson than Rodgers did last season. Hell, wouldn't surprise me if Toure was a surprising safety blanket this week. I think Love has also put in the time with these guys, and they've developed a lot more chemistry than would be typical given the perception of them.
Love, through his first seasons on the bench, up until now, hasn't been afforded the bias that say Rodgers had been. These have been reps, through and through, with all of them. That's not, "these are my guys and these are the ones who will ACTUALLY be catching the ball." The mental edge, coupled with the catch em by surprise, plays to our advantage in a major way.
I DO think the Packers have cracked the code to a degree, by letting Rodgers learn and Love after him. Am I saying that Love will be a HOFer, absolutely not. Do I think we get that middling, maybe top 10-15 from him? Yes. The rest is gravy. I'd expect top 15 this year. And before you ask who, Stafford, Purdy, G. Smith (flash in the pan), Dobbs, Young, Ridder, Mayfield, Fields, Goff, Jones, Wilson, Garoppalo, Richardson, Stroud, Tannehill, Jones, are all guys I feel comfortable saying he'll be better than this year. I DO think Pickett, Carr, Watson, and Howell, are your, "Oh, he can do that?" guys along with Love. Something weird with Cousins going on, idk what to make of it. Same goes for Dak.
PS. What does a young, fast, dumb defense do? Kills the guy with the ball. We're not playing against a vet QB. Unless you think Fields is going to be calling audibles and reading our defense all day, and I don't. We can play straight up until he proves otherwise. And if he lights up through the air throwing to Claypool while Moore is blanketed by Jaire? Kudos. Tip to the cap. Eberflus aint the guy to bust that open IMO.
skones wrote:MVP2110 wrote:
On one hand I do agree that Vegas seems to be low on the Packers this year imo, but with that said when basically every sports book & national analyst is low on the Packers maybe it's not them being too low, maybe it's us being too high. I think if things break right for the Packers then we could win 10 or 11 games, but as we see right out of the gate, if we sustain any sort of injuries we don't have much depth. A WR group of Reed, Toure, Heath, & Wicks is not a winning WR room. If Love has to miss any time I have zero confidence in Clifford winning a game(only 8 of 32 QBs last year started all 17 games so chances are Love will miss atleast one game). There are reasons to be optimistic and reasons to be pessimistic this year basically and acting like we know which side is right and which is wrong is foolish to me
Sportsbooks yes, but analysts no? I guess when I watch NFC North Previews and you've got national "pundits" like Nick Wright, Chris Simms, Chris Broussard, etc. having us better than people think, winning the division, or playoff bound while the Bears are dead last, this game taking "one of the best coaching jobs ever" to win the game just seemed like a wild take. It seems you've backtracked on that, so I'll just leave it at that.
I've got us at 9-8. I don't think that's me having us too high at all. It's more that I look across the aisle and see a team that won 3 games last year with a QB who can't throw the football.
WeekapaugGroove wrote:But Love just might not be good regardless of the preparation the past few years. That happens with like half of the QBs drafted in round 1. For whatever reason they just aren't good enough once you play them in real games. There's no fail safe formula or teams would stop drafting busts.
I'm optimistic and there are some good signs with Jordan but at this point even the Packers coaching staff doesn't really know how this is going to turn out.
That unknown has me more excited to watch this season than I have been for a while.
Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app
Ron Swanson wrote:I mean, I predicted the team to go 10-7 so it's not like I couldn't see an outcome where Love sucks and we go 5-12 or something. I take more issue with how dumb every tidbit of outside "analysis" about this Packers roster has been the last 6-months. Anyone who's watched a grain of film can see the difference between Love and Fields as quarterbacks is just night and day. Top-5 O-line, Top-5 running attack, Top-5 secondary. I'll be stunned if we're straight up terrible this year, which is what you'd basically have to believe in order to put us dead last in the division. I mean, just look at that Bears roster top-to-bottom. Absolute booty cheeks.
I get what you're saying but if simply sitting and learning was the sure fire path then teams should have been falling over themselves to get Trey Lance.skones wrote:WeekapaugGroove wrote:But Love just might not be good regardless of the preparation the past few years. That happens with like half of the QBs drafted in round 1. For whatever reason they just aren't good enough once you play them in real games. There's no fail safe formula or teams would stop drafting busts.
I'm optimistic and there are some good signs with Jordan but at this point even the Packers coaching staff doesn't really know how this is going to turn out.
That unknown has me more excited to watch this season than I have been for a while.
Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app
But again, he's not just a QB drafted in Round 1. He's a QB who's a 3 year pro. Again, it's an enormous differentiator. It's not the same as a guy thrown into the fire year one and flopping (understandably so, but NFL teams just like to ignore that in a weird way). If we're being honest, what have we seen from Love between last year against Philly and this preseason? It's been a whole lot of good. Some inconsistency, some warts, sure, but A LOT there. That TD throw to Reed was ELITE stuff. That shouldn't be ignored. Lean in baby.
“The guys I’ve heard of, the Cliffys (Chad Clifton), the Charles Woodsons of the world, the guys who never showed up to practice, and they hit a point where they knew how to get ready, and I think to myself that I can just show up on game day and do what I need to do.”
Pro Football Focus ranked Bakhtiari as the NFL’s fifth-best pass-blocking tackle last season. He didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit in 339 pass-blocking snaps over 11 games.
ReasonablySober wrote:Doubs is back, Watson isn't.