emunney wrote:12/1 odds means they think you're 12 times more likely to lose than win. 11/2 means you're 5.5 times more likely to lose, iow, if this scenario played out 13 times, they think the Packers and Falcons would each win the SB twice, and they think the Pats would win 5 times.
Not necessarily
Vegas places odds mainly based on trying to get a certain percentage of money on each team. The Packers are considered a national team by Vegas and odds setters. That meaning that the Packers have such a strong following nationwide that more money tends to get placed on Green Bay than your typical team.
On your average regular season game or even playoff games, the game spreads get influenced by this fact that more money typically gets bet on the Packers even if the initial set line shouldn't dictate so much money being bet on Green Bay. Take this weak vs Atlanta. The line probably should be Atlanta at least -3, but because the Packers have such a stronger following and thus more casual money will go on Green Bay, Vegas has to lower the spread by a half point to a point so as to get more money put on Atlanta. The Patriots are considered a national team also and this influences what the line is set at in their games.
The art of setting lines in sports and especially football isn't necessarily what the odds setters feel is what's mostly likely to happens in any given game, it's to get as much money as possible bet evenly on both teams, then Vegas can't be harmed by an outcome, they just win by collecting on the vig.
