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2020 Draft Thread

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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#421 » by ReasonablySober » Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:00 am

Treebeard wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:I'm against any TE before the 4th, maybe 5th.


Aren't this year's crop of TE's rated as underwhelming as a group?


Yea, it's a very bad group.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#422 » by Karmaloop » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:41 am

ReasonablySober wrote:Yea, it's a very bad group.


Very bad is probably over-exaggerating it a tad. It lacks any high-end talent, but it's got some solid players.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#423 » by ReasonablySober » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:53 am

Karmaloop wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:Yea, it's a very bad group.


Very bad is probably over-exaggerating it a tad. It lacks any high-end talent, but it's got some solid players.


I think when it's tough to justify taking one in the top two rounds, at least, it's a very bad group.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#424 » by Daver » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:11 am

Profound23 wrote:Kiper's two round mock (4.0) has us taking Higgins and Trautman. Watched Trautman's highlights and I am not impressed. Never saw him live so I could be wrong.



The one receiver no body wants cause of his aweful combine testing testing is the guy the packers take while the guys who had great testing who are sitting there they pass watch typical packers
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#425 » by Frank Nova » Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:42 am

ReasonablySober wrote:
Karmaloop wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:Yea, it's a very bad group.


Very bad is probably over-exaggerating it a tad. It lacks any high-end talent, but it's got some solid players.


I think when it's tough to justify taking one in the top two rounds, at least, it's a very bad group.


I saw a discussion the other day about the position and Rob Demovsky (spelling?) was making a case that Jace Sternberger would be a top 2 TE in this class if he came out this year. So if you’re trying to look for an identifier, it’s probably that. And Jace seems more athletic than Kmet by a lot, not to mention the yac disparity between the 2. Jace has big play potential, while Kmet looks more like the rebirth of Jason Witten.

There’s some talent at TE but the top of the class is underwhelming.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#426 » by M-C-G » Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:01 pm

Frank Nova wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
Karmaloop wrote:
Very bad is probably over-exaggerating it a tad. It lacks any high-end talent, but it's got some solid players.


I think when it's tough to justify taking one in the top two rounds, at least, it's a very bad group.


I saw a discussion the other day about the position and Rob Demovsky (spelling?) was making a case that Jace Sternberger would be a top 2 TE in this class if he came out this year. So if you’re trying to look for an identifier, it’s probably that. And Jace seems more athletic than Kmet by a lot, not to mention the yac disparity between the 2. Jace has big play potential, while Kmet looks more like the rebirth of Jason Witten.

There’s some talent at TE but the top of the class is underwhelming.


I think Albert O is the only guy that really interest me, just for the size/speed...the rest are pretty uninspiring
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#427 » by M-C-G » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:04 pm

Just came across this on PFF, no idea how this is calculated but a Chark/Lockett outcome seems like it is in the realm of possibility

Reagor is one of the more interesting prospects in the entire draft. In fact, our athleticism metric, which combines various combine metrics using principal component analysis and forecasts how this combination of new variables projects to PFF grades at the NFL level, has never given a receiver a better grade than it gave Reagor, and that includes Ruggs.

While Reagor was not very productive in 2019, catching fewer than 50% of his targets and generating just over 600 yards (with less than 150 yards after the catch), he dealt with some pretty poor play at the quarterback position and saw an unreal amount of uncatchable targets. He did drop seven of his 88 targets, which is a bit concerning. He also avoided only five tackles on his catches in 2019, down from 11 in 2018.

Our college-to-pro projection system — which is powered by the machine learning capabilities of AWS — likes him enough to give him statistical comps of former top-10 pick Corey Davis and 2019 breakout star D.J. Chark. His ceiling projection (90th percentile) is that of Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Tyler Lockett, so the dreaded “potential” is there. He leads all receivers in our projections in yards per catch, and he is second (weirdly) in yards per carry, cementing him firmly as a first-round pick in our minds.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#428 » by humanrefutation » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:37 pm

So, it seems like the mocks have Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, and Jefferson for sure gone by our pick. Who is everyone else's #1 of the remaining guys? And does anyone feel so strongly about any of those top four guys that you've be willing to give up draft capital to move up for one of them?
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#429 » by M-C-G » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:09 pm

humanrefutation wrote:So, it seems like the mocks have Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, and Jefferson for sure gone by our pick. Who is everyone else's #1 of the remaining guys? And does anyone feel so strongly about any of those top four guys that you've be willing to give up draft capital to move up for one of them?


I'm very happy with the guys that would be available at 30. Reagor, Mims and Ayuik would all be exciting. Hell I can even get behind Shenault. I have a feeling if he was healthy he would have run better.

If Adams was not in his prime, I may think more about trading up, but I am pretty sure at least one, maybe two of the guys I listed at 30 will have better careers than someone from that first pool. The talent in this WR class is nuts.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#430 » by Karmaloop » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:10 pm

humanrefutation wrote:So, it seems like the mocks have Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, and Jefferson for sure gone by our pick. Who is everyone else's #1 of the remaining guys? And does anyone feel so strongly about any of those top four guys that you've be willing to give up draft capital to move up for one of them?


No. I've got Mims as the next best WR.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#431 » by Daver » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:00 pm

I like mims to slot and think like M-C-G said would be a guy Rogers would love cause of his boundary catches and good hands I think he would be the perfect compliment plus he runs a 4.3 that's one hand the other another comment M-C-G said was reagor was a much better yac guy which GB needs also so it's safe to ask BG what do you value more a jordy esk guy like mims or a quick yac guy
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#432 » by Mags FTW » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:49 pm

humanrefutation wrote:So, it seems like the mocks have Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, and Jefferson for sure gone by our pick. Who is everyone else's #1 of the remaining guys? And does anyone feel so strongly about any of those top four guys that you've be willing to give up draft capital to move up for one of them?

I like the ASU kid. He is the explosive player we lack that can take a quick slant to the house. Don't think we'll need to move to get him.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#433 » by M-C-G » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:14 pm

Mags FTW wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:So, it seems like the mocks have Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, and Jefferson for sure gone by our pick. Who is everyone else's #1 of the remaining guys? And does anyone feel so strongly about any of those top four guys that you've be willing to give up draft capital to move up for one of them?


I like the ASU kid. He is the explosive player we lack that can take a quick slant to the house. Don't think we'll need to move to get him.


Yeah, I like the way he can turn upfield. Hard to describe how fluid that is in a way that makes sense, but reminds me a bit of Greg Jennings, that kind of movement.

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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#434 » by Frank Nova » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:53 pm

M-C-G wrote:Just came across this on PFF, no idea how this is calculated but a Chark/Lockett outcome seems like it is in the realm of possibility

Reagor is one of the more interesting prospects in the entire draft. In fact, our athleticism metric, which combines various combine metrics using principal component analysis and forecasts how this combination of new variables projects to PFF grades at the NFL level, has never given a receiver a better grade than it gave Reagor, and that includes Ruggs.

While Reagor was not very productive in 2019, catching fewer than 50% of his targets and generating just over 600 yards (with less than 150 yards after the catch), he dealt with some pretty poor play at the quarterback position and saw an unreal amount of uncatchable targets. He did drop seven of his 88 targets, which is a bit concerning. He also avoided only five tackles on his catches in 2019, down from 11 in 2018.

Our college-to-pro projection system — which is powered by the machine learning capabilities of AWS — likes him enough to give him statistical comps of former top-10 pick Corey Davis and 2019 breakout star D.J. Chark. His ceiling projection (90th percentile) is that of Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Tyler Lockett, so the dreaded “potential” is there. He leads all receivers in our projections in yards per catch, and he is second (weirdly) in yards per carry, cementing him firmly as a first-round pick in our minds.


Tyler Lockett you say? SOLD
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#435 » by Treebeard » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:40 pm

M-C-G wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:So, it seems like the mocks have Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, and Jefferson for sure gone by our pick. Who is everyone else's #1 of the remaining guys? And does anyone feel so strongly about any of those top four guys that you've be willing to give up draft capital to move up for one of them?


I'm very happy with the guys that would be available at 30. Reagor, Mims and Ayuik would all be exciting. Hell I can even get behind Shenault. I have a feeling if he was healthy he would have run better.

If Adams was not in his prime, I may think more about trading up, but I am pretty sure at least one, maybe two of the guys I listed at 30 will have better careers than someone from that first pool. The talent in this WR class is nuts.


Yeah, I'm with you there. I think there are a number of very good options that should be available at #30. I'd still prefer Queen or maybe Marshall, but I think both are gone by early to mid 20's and I don't see either as good enough to trade up for. So,..... take the best WR remaining on the table, which is likely the BPA by most measures anyway.

If Gute trades back a few spots into the second, in order to pick up an additional third rounder, is that going to be a major problem?
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#436 » by M-C-G » Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:04 pm

Treebeard wrote:
M-C-G wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:So, it seems like the mocks have Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, and Jefferson for sure gone by our pick. Who is everyone else's #1 of the remaining guys? And does anyone feel so strongly about any of those top four guys that you've be willing to give up draft capital to move up for one of them?


I'm very happy with the guys that would be available at 30. Reagor, Mims and Ayuik would all be exciting. Hell I can even get behind Shenault. I have a feeling if he was healthy he would have run better.

If Adams was not in his prime, I may think more about trading up, but I am pretty sure at least one, maybe two of the guys I listed at 30 will have better careers than someone from that first pool. The talent in this WR class is nuts.


Yeah, I'm with you there. I think there are a number of very good options that should be available at #30. I'd still prefer Queen or maybe Marshall, but I think both are gone by early to mid 20's and I don't see either as good enough to trade up for. So,..... take the best WR remaining on the table, which is likely the BPA by most measures anyway.

If Gute trades back a few spots into the second, in order to pick up an additional third rounder, is that going to be a major problem?


I would absolutely take Murray and Queen before a WR and I agree, I don't think they will be there. Trading back would be an option, but I want to see if there is/was a big run on WR before I do that. Completely dependent on how the board falls.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#437 » by Finn » Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:20 pm

Daver wrote:
Profound23 wrote:Kiper's two round mock (4.0) has us taking Higgins and Trautman. Watched Trautman's highlights and I am not impressed. Never saw him live so I could be wrong.

The one receiver no body wants cause of his aweful combine testing testing is the guy the packers take while the guys who had great testing who are sitting there they pass watch typical packers

So you're a fan of the underwear Olympics rather than what the guy actually accomplished on the field. Solid.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#438 » by M-C-G » Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:57 pm

Finn wrote:
Daver wrote:
Profound23 wrote:Kiper's two round mock (4.0) has us taking Higgins and Trautman. Watched Trautman's highlights and I am not impressed. Never saw him live so I could be wrong.

The one receiver no body wants cause of his aweful combine testing testing is the guy the packers take while the guys who had great testing who are sitting there they pass watch typical packers


So you're a fan of the underwear Olympics rather than what the guy actually accomplished on the field. Solid.


Nah, I think you have to take production mixed with how they will athletically compare to their (nfl)peers and give it your best guess as to how it translates. Tee put some less than impressive numbers, and somehow a BS report circulated (cough Agent cough) that he ran 4.43. Then a few days later Clemson announced the official 4.54.

Vert would have been 3rd worst of the combine WR participants. Broad jump was in about the lower third of combine WR participants. Those are fair concerns about how his athletic ability will translate.

Trevor Insley put up 2060 yards receiving in 1999. He went undrafted and ended up playing in 11 games and having 14 catches.

It's a balance and Tee put up enough for cause concern.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#439 » by humanrefutation » Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:35 pm

Tee Higgins is definitely the one top tier WR in this class that gives me a "meh" vibe.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread 

Post#440 » by M-C-G » Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:50 pm

humanrefutation wrote:Tee Higgins is definitely the one top tier WR in this class that gives me a "meh" vibe.


Yeah, I am definitely not saying the guy won't be good, he may be the next Mike Evans for all I know. I just like way too many other guys way more in this draft at the position.

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