2020 Draft Thread

[M-C-G]

Murray can't cover.

PFF bio

Murray immediately stepped into a starting role on the
Oklahoma defense as a true freshman in 2017, but he struggled
out of the gates. He wasn’t providing consistent support in the
run game nor in coverage, and he missed too many tackles with
17 on the season. He ended that freshman campaign with just a
52.9 overall grade.
Things improved for Murray as a sophomore across the board,
however, as he finished the year with grades of 64.8 or better as a
run defender, tackler, pass rusher and in coverage. His 2019
performance in coverage was another step in the right direction.
Murray recorded a career-high 80.6 grade in coverage, improving
as a read-and-react defender while cutting down on some of the
missed tackles.

Cheesehead TV

Cheesehead TV
Murray vs. the Pass: Murray is much better zone defender than man coverage player. He is able to rely on his instincts and athleticism to make plays on the ball when dropping in zone coverage. However, because he is more of a linear downhill athlete, he can lose a step at times in man coverage and may struggle shadowing quick backs out in space

I mean, "can't cover" ? Maybe needs to improve there, but can't?

[ReasonablySober]

Murray can't cover.

PFF bio

Murray immediately stepped into a starting role on the
Oklahoma defense as a true freshman in 2017, but he struggled
out of the gates. He wasn’t providing consistent support in the
run game nor in coverage, and he missed too many tackles with
17 on the season. He ended that freshman campaign with just a
52.9 overall grade.
Things improved for Murray as a sophomore across the board,
however, as he finished the year with grades of 64.8 or better as a
run defender, tackler, pass rusher and in coverage. His 2019
performance in coverage was another step in the right direction.
Murray recorded a career-high 80.6 grade in coverage, improving
as a read-and-react defender while cutting down on some of the
missed tackles.

Cheesehead TV

Cheesehead TV
Murray vs. the Pass: Murray is much better zone defender than man coverage player. He is able to rely on his instincts and athleticism to make plays on the ball when dropping in zone coverage. However, because he is more of a linear downhill athlete, he can lose a step at times in man coverage and may struggle shadowing quick backs out in space

I mean, "can't cover" ? Maybe needs to improve there, but can't?

With all the athleticism in the world, it’s a wonder why he hasn’t been more of a playmaker in coverage over the course of his career. He allowed 82.4% of his targets to be completed in his time at Oklahoma and broke up only 4 of 102 targets with no picks. I will say that his read and react ability looked different down the stretch in 2019 as his processing speed took a noticeable step forward. He finished the year with 66 stops — fourth-most among linebackers in college football.

Can't cover.

[M-C-G]

I don’t know why, but every time I look through the WR group Bryan Edwards starts to stand out more and more.

May have mentioned, my scouting buddy said Edwards would have been 3rd on his list compared to last years draft class. Reminds me a bit of James Jones, maybe David Boston (before he decided he wanted to be the Hulk)?

[M-C-G]

Murray can't cover.

PFF bio

Murray immediately stepped into a starting role on the
Oklahoma defense as a true freshman in 2017, but he struggled
out of the gates. He wasn’t providing consistent support in the
run game nor in coverage, and he missed too many tackles with
17 on the season. He ended that freshman campaign with just a
52.9 overall grade.
Things improved for Murray as a sophomore across the board,
however, as he finished the year with grades of 64.8 or better as a
run defender, tackler, pass rusher and in coverage. His 2019
performance in coverage was another step in the right direction.
Murray recorded a career-high 80.6 grade in coverage, improving
as a read-and-react defender while cutting down on some of the
missed tackles.

Cheesehead TV

Cheesehead TV
Murray vs. the Pass: Murray is much better zone defender than man coverage player. He is able to rely on his instincts and athleticism to make plays on the ball when dropping in zone coverage. However, because he is more of a linear downhill athlete, he can lose a step at times in man coverage and may struggle shadowing quick backs out in space

I mean, "can't cover" ? Maybe needs to improve there, but can't?

With all the athleticism in the world, it’s a wonder why he hasn’t been more of a playmaker in coverage over the course of his career. He allowed 82.4% of his targets to be completed in his time at Oklahoma and broke up only 4 of 102 targets with no picks. I will say that his read and react ability looked different down the stretch in 2019 as his processing speed took a noticeable step forward. He finished the year with 66 stops — fourth-most among linebackers in college football.

Can't cover.

That doesn't look good, but it is hard for me to reconcile how PFF coverage grade is positive and that. Is that his career, and maybe he was much better this last season? Between PFF and that, he certainly looks to have moved his game forward in 2019?

[ReasonablySober]

PFF bio



Cheesehead TV


I mean, "can't cover" ? Maybe needs to improve there, but can't?

With all the athleticism in the world, it’s a wonder why he hasn’t been more of a playmaker in coverage over the course of his career. He allowed 82.4% of his targets to be completed in his time at Oklahoma and broke up only 4 of 102 targets with no picks. I will say that his read and react ability looked different down the stretch in 2019 as his processing speed took a noticeable step forward. He finished the year with 66 stops — fourth-most among linebackers in college football.

Can't cover.

That doesn't look good, but it is hard for me to reconcile how PFF coverage grade is positive and that. Is that his career, and maybe he was much better this last season? Between PFF and that, he certainly looks to have moved his game forward in 2019?

That's from PFF. It's the blurb under why he's only ranked 6th in the LB rankings.

[M-C-G]

This got me looking into Targets/Passes Completed by the top ILB in the draft for comparison
Simmons 41/26 3int 8 forced incompletions
Queen 33/24 1 int 1 forced incompletion
Murray 32/28 0 int 2 forced incompletions
Dye 32/22 2 int 3 forced incompletions (think he played with a club this season as well)
Logan Wilson 56/37 4 int 5 forced incompletions
Malik Harrison 25/17 0 int 4 forced incompletions

Interesting. It's crazy how dominant Simmons is in comparison. And Logan Wilson is going to be a sneaky pick for some team. Dude is a gamer.

[Treebeard]

Ok, for fun, I am going to start a list of mid round prospects that I like. Specifically targeting players that would be round 3 and later. Guys specifically I think would be good on the Packers, that are not top 100 of CBS composite big board

QB
James Morgan FIU (Green Bay native with all the tools to develop)
*** Looks to be more physically talented, but needs a lot of refinement. Of course, if he's in the development spot, that may be perfect

Cole McDonald (would be a perfect fit for how MLF wants to run his offense)
*** Interesting candidate. One write-up described his long-ball throwing technique as javelin-like. That opening shot of the video reinforces that idea.

RB
Darrynton Evans (Gives me a very Aaron Jones vibe)
*** Agreed on the AJ vibe

AJ Dillon (SPARQ score guy which I think is big with Gute)
*** I'm interested in this guy. He's a horse, may be viewed as more of a replacement for Williams. The SPARQ rating doesn't hurt. He can be a bulldozer, but is reported as being patient behind his blockers.

WR
James Proche (slot guy with incredible ball skills)
*** I don't know much about the guy

Lynn Bowden Jr (Randall Cobb/Antwan Randel El 2.0)
*** I like your comps here.

Flex
Antonio Gibson (raw but incredible YAC)
*** He could be a real sleeper

[ReasonablySober]

Yea, I really like Bowden from the 3rd on.

[M-C-G]

WR
James Proche (slot guy with incredible ball skills)
*** I don't know much about the guy

Hardest player to find a comp to. Just listened to one guy talking about him and I think he invented the term 'violent hands', that he is so aggressive catching the ball it is violent. Thought that was funny.

Poor man Jarvis Landry maybe? Could see him landing in Buffalo and running those Cole Beasley routes, or how Hunter Renfrow is used in Oakland. I think both those guys are shiftier, but Proche might have the best hands in the draft. Could see New England loving him.

[WeekapaugGroove]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

[M-C-G]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Trying to wrap my head around these numbers
Blake Martinez 74 targets 62 catches 1 interception 2 passes defended, 84% catch
Luke Kuelchy 68 targets 46 catches 2 interception 12 passes defended, 67%
Bobby Wagner 72 target 58 catches 1 interception 6 passes defended, 81%
Devin Bush 68 targets 46 catches 2 interceptions 4 passes defended , 67%
Devin White 56 targets 42 catches 1 interception 3 passes defended, 75%

So it looks something 65% or so is elite, scaling up to maybe 80% is average, maybe?? I was trying to use the play index on PFR but it wasn't launching so I just picked guys and the all rookie guys from last year.


So back to the guys from post earlier

Simmons 63% catch
Queen 72%
Murray 88%
Dye 69%
Logan Wilson 66%
Malik Harrison 68%
Davis-Gaither 75%

Very, very interesting to factor into my value on these guys. Obviously there are nuances for a ton of things, scheme, players surrounding them, etc. But I guess I have a new stat to consider

[WeekapaugGroove]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Trying to wrap my head around these numbers
Blake Martinez 74 targets 62 catches 1 interception 2 passes defended, 84% catch
Luke Kuelchy 68 targets 46 catches 2 interception 12 passes defended, 67%
Bobby Wagner 72 target 58 catches 1 interception 6 passes defended, 81%
Devin Bush 68 targets 46 catches 2 interceptions 4 passes defended , 67%
Devin White 56 targets 42 catches 1 interception 3 passes defended, 75%

So it looks something 65% or so is elite, scaling up to maybe 80% is average, maybe?? I was trying to use the play index on PFR but it wasn't launching so I just picked guys and the all rookie guys from last year.


So back to the guys from post earlier

Simmons 63% catch
Queen 72%
Murray 88%
Dye 69%
Logan Wilson 66%
Malik Harrison 68%
Davis-Gaither 75%

Very, very interesting to factor into my value on these guys. Obviously there are nuances for a ton of things, scheme, players surrounding them, etc. But I guess I have a new stat to consider

Awesome info

I think teams are aware of this too and it's why a 5th DB has basically replaced a LB for most snaps. An average DB will cover better than a 'good' coverage LB.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

[Treebeard]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Trying to wrap my head around these numbers
Blake Martinez 74 targets 62 catches 1 interception 2 passes defended, 84% catch
Luke Kuelchy 68 targets 46 catches 2 interception 12 passes defended, 67%
Bobby Wagner 72 target 58 catches 1 interception 6 passes defended, 81%
Devin Bush 68 targets 46 catches 2 interceptions 4 passes defended , 67%
Devin White 56 targets 42 catches 1 interception 3 passes defended, 75%

So it looks something 65% or so is elite, scaling up to maybe 80% is average, maybe?? I was trying to use the play index on PFR but it wasn't launching so I just picked guys and the all rookie guys from last year.


So back to the guys from post earlier

Simmons 63% catch
Queen 72%
Murray 88%
Dye 69%
Logan Wilson 66%
Malik Harrison 68%
Davis-Gaither 75%

Very, very interesting to factor into my value on these guys. Obviously there are nuances for a ton of things, scheme, players surrounding them, etc. But I guess I have a new stat to consider

Good stuff. I think you'd need to consider strength of opponent too, though that's going to be very squirmy subjective.

[M-C-G]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Trying to wrap my head around these numbers
Blake Martinez 74 targets 62 catches 1 interception 2 passes defended, 84% catch
Luke Kuelchy 68 targets 46 catches 2 interception 12 passes defended, 67%
Bobby Wagner 72 target 58 catches 1 interception 6 passes defended, 81%
Devin Bush 68 targets 46 catches 2 interceptions 4 passes defended , 67%
Devin White 56 targets 42 catches 1 interception 3 passes defended, 75%

So it looks something 65% or so is elite, scaling up to maybe 80% is average, maybe?? I was trying to use the play index on PFR but it wasn't launching so I just picked guys and the all rookie guys from last year.


So back to the guys from post earlier

Simmons 63% catch
Queen 72%
Murray 88%
Dye 69%
Logan Wilson 66%
Malik Harrison 68%
Davis-Gaither 75%

Very, very interesting to factor into my value on these guys. Obviously there are nuances for a ton of things, scheme, players surrounding them, etc. But I guess I have a new stat to consider

Good stuff. I think you'd need to consider strength of opponent too, though that's going to be very squirmy subjective.

Don't get me wrong, I know that is a huge factor, just not one I am prepared to try and fit into my 'model'...That's the kind of work I expect the professionals to look, and include quality of opponent, etc.

I just think it is interesting and gives me a new way to think about it. I'll say, at first glance, this is going to make me go back and think a lot more about Malik and Logan being more valuable then I thought and it certainly places a big red flag on Murray. I guess a logical next step would be to look at the average yards allowed per target.

[Treebeard]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

I think it will be real interesting to see how Isaiah Simmons develops over the next few years. He seems to have all the physical tools and mental makeup to excel for the way the pro game is played

[WeekapaugGroove]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

I think it will be real interesting to see how Isaiah Simmons develops over the next few years. He seems to have all the physical tools and mental makeup to excel for the way the pro game is played

Yeah he looks like an absolute stud. Although I loved the Josh Jones pick for many of the same reasons so I'm maybe just infatuated with that hybrid type.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

[M-C-G]

How many ILBs are actually 'good' in coverage? Feel like just someone who can survive is about all you can really expect. Hell I think Bobby Wagner lead the league in yardage given up.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

I think it will be real interesting to see how Isaiah Simmons develops over the next few years. He seems to have all the physical tools and mental makeup to excel for the way the pro game is played

Yeah he looks like an absolute stud. Although I loved the Josh Jones pick for many of the same reasons so I'm maybe just infatuated with that hybrid type.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Simmons was obviously developed in a game of Madden where the counsel was hit by lightening and then Weird Science style he appeared in real life. No other reasonable explanation.

Watch on YouTube

[M-C-G]

Average yards per target
Blake 7.7
Luke 5.8
Wagner 9.1
Bush 6.4
White 6.2

Not sure where to find this for college, as Sports reference doesn't have it for college. But you can see a scale that aligns with the catch %,
Elite <6
Good <7
Average <8
Bad <8

Don't know, just spitballing here. I guess part of my speculation is that I am basically setting Luke's status as elite. If anyone knows where that info might be available for college players let me know

[Frank Nova]

Packers are on the clock, 30th pick is Terrell Lewis.

He’s a monster with injury flags? Can someone indulge me please? Sell me Terrell Lewis and consider it a warm sales call.

[ReasonablySober]

Packers are on the clock, 30th pick is Terrell Lewis.

He’s a monster with injury flags? Can someone indulge me please? Sell me Terrell Lewis and consider it a warm sales call.

It's not even worth entertaining the thought. They're already stacked with enormous money invested in edge dudes.