Jordan Love Thread - All Aboard the Love Train

[MVP2110]

Love's season isn't this pie you can neatly divide between 1st half and second half. I don't know why you're doing that.

Love's QBR ranking by week:

5
7
20
32
25
3
29
18
7
9
1
2
10
14

Ranking on the season: 13th

Good, bad, a blip of being good, then bad, then above average, then really good, back down to average again.

It's been a rollercoaster from the start.

He was 22nd in DVOA about mid way through the season(I remember because some people said he was awful and I was having the debate with them). He is now up to 11th in DVOA

Here are his numbers for every week of the season for EPA, CPOE, and the Composite score

EPA:
Week 1: 1st
Week 2: 3rd
Week 3: 16th
Week 4: 23rd
Week 5: 27th
Week 7: 6th
Week 8: 26th
Week 9: 7th
Week 10: 11th
Week 11: 6th
Week 12: 3rd
Week 13: 6th
Week 14: 18th
Week 15: 11th

CPOE:
Week 1: 23rd
Week 2: 29th
Week 3: 30th
Week 4: 19th
Week 5: 30th
Week 7: 12th
Week 8: 25th
Week 9: 5th
Week 10: 17th
Week 11: 10th
Week 12: 7th
Week 13: 6th
Week 14: 11th
Week 15: 6th


Composite:
Week 1: 5th
Week 2: 18th
Week 3: 22nd
Week 4: 22nd
Week 5: 30th
Week 7: 7th
Week 8: 26th
Week 9: 3rd
Week 10: 13th
Week 11: 5th
Week 12: 3rd
Week 13: 5th
Week 14: 15th
Week 15: 8th

His completion % has improved every single month of the season and overall is the 6th best in the NFL in the 2nd half of the season after being well below for the first half of the season.

Even using Passer Rating like you just did, the first half of the season his average ranking was 17th in the NFL, in the second half that has improved to 7th in the NFL so by the metric you just used he's been a top 10 QB in the 2nd half of the season.

There is a very significant difference in how he played the 1st half of the year where he was in the 20-22 range of QBs and the 2nd half of the season where he's in the 5-10 range of QBs which is why I asked if the fans that remain skeptical of Love believe he needs to improve on what he's done the second half of the season or if he just needs to continue to do what he's done. I can understand being skeptical that he will keep that level of play up and wanting to see more of it, but I can't understand the thinking that what he's done in these last few weeks isn't good enough considering basically every metric we use has him in the 5-10 range during that span

I know Mahomes is having a down year but could you post how Love has compared to him with these stats?

I feel like both guys have very young pass catchers (other than Kelce) with kind of similar RB situations. Curious to see how those two stack up


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Mahomes is still better for the season but has been worse in the 2nd half of the year

1st half
CPOE: Mahomes 11th, Love 30th
EPA/Play: Mahomes 3rd, Love 17th
Composite score: Mahomes 4th, Love 25th

2nd half
CPOE: Mahomes 8th, Love 5th
EPA/Play: Mahomes 16th, Love 5th
Composite score: Mahomes 16th, Love 4th

Full season
CPOE: Mahomes 8th, Love 20th
EPA: Mahomes 5th, Love 9th
Composite score: Mahomes 7th, Love 13th

I don't have splits on their DVOAs but for the season Mahomes is 7th, Love is 11th

[MVP2110]

MVP I think those numbers show exactly what I did with QBR. Love's been a rollercoaster.

As for Mahomes, I think they're honestly in two different situations and Mahomes would kill for the Packers core of receivers. Mahomes is throwing to a bunch of crap.

I'm not sure how you are getting that. All of his best games outside of week 1 are in the 2nd half of the season and all of his worst games are in the 1st half of the year. When talking about a first year starting QB I think it's very worthwhile to look at his 1st half and 2nd half splits. Heck the entire conversation around Love has changed, 2 months ago I was arguing that he was the in the 20-22 range or so of QBs as opposed to the leagues worst, now we're debating if he truly is a borderline top 10 guy or not

[ReasonablySober]

No one is debating whether or not he’s a top ten QB.

[MVP2110]

No one is debating whether or not he’s a top ten QB.

I am. He's 11th in DVOA on the season, he's 9th in EPA on the season, he's top 5 in EPA & CPOE in the 2nd half of the season. It's completely reasonable to say he's been a borderline top 10 QB this season and a top 5 QB the 2nd half of the season. He's absolutely atleast in that discussion

[ReasonablySober]

You’re really gonna make him a top ten QB based on a five game stretch?

[MVP2110]

You’re really gonna make him a top ten QB based on a five game stretch?

He's 11th in DVOA & 9th in EPA for the entire season, that's not just a five game stretch.

[ReasonablySober]

Who are your top ten QBs in the NFL? Would love to see this list.

[MoMM]

You’re really gonna make him a top ten QB based on a five game stretch?

Well, no one is saying he a Top5 NFL QB at this moment, but he is showing some signs of improvement even without some good weapons and a reliable LT.

[ReasonablySober]

You’re really gonna make him a top ten QB based on a five game stretch?

Well, no one is saying he a Top5 NFL QB at this moment, but he is showing some signs of improvement even without some good weapons and a reliable LT.

MVP thinks he's a top ten QB in the league. I'm anxious to see this list.

[MVP2110]

You’re really gonna make him a top ten QB based on a five game stretch?

Well, no one is saying he a Top5 NFL QB at this moment, but he is showing some signs of improvement even without some good weapons and a reliable LT.

MVP thinks he's a top ten QB in the league. I'm anxious to see this list.

I said he's borderline top 10. Based on only this season I think the guys that are clearly ahead of Love are Purdy, Tua, Allen, Dak, Mahomes, Cousins, and probably Hurts & Lamar if you include their rushing ability. That's 8 guys I think have definitely been better on the season as a whole, then I'd put Love in a tier this year with guys like Stroud, Goff, Herbert, Lawrence, & Stafford. So he's in that 9-14 range for me on the season as a whole.

[stillgotgame]

Jordan Love is in the "good enough to bring back next year but not good enough to be a franchise QB yet" camp. He's flashed some brilliance at times but continues to struggle with his accuracy and footwork.

Thing is, there are things he's consistently shown that should not be overlooked. He has tremendous poise in the pocket. He carries himself with confidence. He's unafraid of the moment. He doesn't make a lot of boneheaded decisions with the ball. He seems to throw the ball well on the run.

For a first year QB with a young team around him, there's a lot to like. Enough to believe that he could be a top 10 QB. But I am worried about his lack of accuracy and footwork, as those have been problems with him since he was in college. I know his receivers are young and have run the wrong routes on more than one occasion. But too often, Jordan has just missed an open guy or underthrown an open guy which has limited YAC.

Do you believe he's played like a top 10 QB in the 2nd half of the season or are you saying he needs to improve upon his play in the 2nd half of this season? Because by every metric he's been a clear top 10 QB in the 2nd half and probably a top 5 guy. Now I understand that you can't just throw out the 1st half of the season but what I'm trying to figure out is if people still don't think he's been good enough to be a franchise guy or if they are just hoping he stays as good as he's been these last few weeks.

Love's season isn't this pie you can neatly divide between 1st half and second half. I don't know why you're doing that.

Love's QBR ranking by week:

5
7
20
32
25
3
29
18
7
9
1
2
10
14

Ranking on the season: 13th

Good, bad, a blip of being good, then bad, then above average, then really good, back down to average again.

It's been a rollercoaster from the start.

The most accurate QB in the history of the NFL was 11th in QBR his first year starting. That year he was also up and down, we lost 7 of our last 9 games. This weekend that year we were eliminated from playoff contention by a 5-9 team, Jacksonville. Rodgers threw a pick to end our last drive.

Watch on YouTube

Love seems to be good to great when the team plays well, and average when we don't. What a revelation, it's a team game.

[coolhandluke121]

I hope he plays somewhat mediocre, albeit with a weak/injured supporting cast the rest of the year, and bets against himself again when negotiating an extension in the off-season. I think he's good enough to consistently put up top-10 production with what I believe will be an excellent supporting cast of skill players, provided they address depth issues on the OL. He won't be great IMO, but I'd be happy to lock him up for his expected prime years at a "prove it" price.

[humanrefutation]

If Love could just consistently hit open receivers, he'd be a top 10 QB for sure and a franchise guy all the way. That's his biggest liability.

I will say that I think he and MLF are a really good pairing. But I am wondering how much freedom he has with the offense. Early in the season, there was some reporting that Love basically didn't have audible authority.

[MVP2110]

Read on Twitter

?t=OPIi_76nCGelpdfoM9aOHg&s=19

[ReasonablySober]

Love really does need to finish strong. After two monster games against Detroit and KC he came back down to Earth the last two weeks.

[ReasonablySober]

And just because I did it for Walker.

[MVP2110]

Love really does need to finish strong. After two monster games against Detroit and KC he came back down to Earth the last two weeks.

I honestly don't understand how you change narratives so much between Love & Walker. Against NYG he was basically average and against TB he was above average according to all sorts of different metrics like EPA, CPOE, Passer Rating, PFF, etc so if those are considered bad games for Love then that's a pretty darn good baseline. We have season long metrics that include his early season struggles like DVOA, EPA, QBR, & PFF that all grade him above average this year(he falls anywhere 9th to 14th on those metrics for the season as a whole). The one area Love doesn't grade out as well in on the season is accuracy as he's 20th in CPOE and 17th in passer rating for the year. But for Walker you are seemingly propping up his 2nd half while throwing out his 1st half struggles but if you do the same for Love then Love would be a top 5 QB by nearly every 2nd half metric including CPOE(or even raw completion % if you don't like CPOE for whatever reason). Add in the inconsistency about which metrics you tend to believe and that adds to my confusion. Love grades out better than Walker on the season as a whole and in the 2nd half but somehow you think Walker should keep us from drafting a LT in R1 but Love you remain extremely skeptical on. I don't mean to be rude but I'm trying to understand your thought process on these two and how it differs so drastically. Imo Packer fans should be really optimistic on both but I don't really see a world in where Walker has been better than Love this year

[LUKE23]

Love was good against TB. Not good against NYG.

[MVP2110]

And just because I did it for Walker.

Love's average grade on the season is 68.83, Walker's average grade on the season is 64.87

Love's average grade in the 2nd half of the season is 75.2, Walker's average game in the 2nd half of the season is 72.2

[ReasonablySober]

Love really does need to finish strong. After two monster games against Detroit and KC he came back down to Earth the last two weeks.

I honestly don't understand how you change narratives so much between Love & Walker. Against NYG he was basically average and against TB he was above average according to all sorts of different metrics like EPA, CPOE, Passer Rating, PFF, etc so if those are considered bad games for Love then that's a pretty darn good baseline. We have season long metrics that include his early season struggles like DVOA, EPA, QBR, & PFF that all grade him above average this year(he falls anywhere 9th to 14th on those metrics for the season as a whole). The one area Love doesn't grade out as well in on the season is accuracy as he's 20th in CPOE and 17th in passer rating for the year. But for Walker you are seemingly propping up his 2nd half while throwing out his 1st half struggles but if you do the same for Love then Love would be a top 5 QB by nearly every 2nd half metric including CPOE(or even raw completion % if you don't like CPOE for whatever reason). Add in the inconsistency about which metrics you tend to believe and that adds to my confusion. Love grades out better than Walker on the season as a whole and in the 2nd half but somehow you think Walker should keep us from drafting a LT in R1 but Love you remain extremely skeptical on. I don't mean to be rude but I'm trying to understand your thought process on these two and how it differs so drastically. Imo Packer fans should be really optimistic on both but I don't really see a world in where Walker has been better than Love this year

What I'm doing with Walker is at least somewhat tongue in cheek. I'm sorry if that wasn't more clear.

But overall I see them similarly, I guess. Both first year starters I'd be comfortable with going into next season.

But I am a little harsher on Love because the mistakes he's making are of the basic variety. Even your stats above are telling you that he's having trouble completing the passes he should.

The other reason I'm harsher is he's the quarterback, and if there's one position where I want to see elite play on a consistent basis, it's that one. Burrow, Jackson, Allen, and Tua all took leaps early in their careers, and next season I'll want to see it from Love.