ImageImage

2022 NFL Draft discussion

Moderators: paulpressey25, MickeyDavis, humanrefutation

Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#761 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:02 am

jakecronus8 wrote:
Treebeard wrote:This one has been floating around this week, but I don't think we've batted around(From Bill Barnwell at ESPN):

22. Green Bay Packers (via LV)

Packers get: WR Chase Claypool (from Steelers), 4-114 (from Falcons)
Steelers get: 1-8, 6-190 (from Falcons)
Falcons get: 1-20 (from Steelers), 1-22 (from Packers)

It's the first three-team trade here! There are other ways for each of these teams to accomplish their goals, but this gets all three organizations what they want have coming out of this draft.

Let's start with the Packers, who add a valuable young receiver set to make just $2.7 million combined over the next two seasons. Claypool didn't take a leap forward in his second season, but he has the size and physical tools to win at all levels of the field, and he'd get a massive upgrade at quarterback when it comes to deeper routes. The Packers have been rewarded for their patience in the past; remember that Davante Adams himself was seen as a disappointment after his second season and didn't post a 1,000-yard campaign until his fifth year. Claypool's early success makes him a slightly better bet than the average rookie being drafted in the 20s.

The Falcons need to amass draft capital. If they aren't going to draft a quarterback at No. 8, they're better off trading down and getting an extra first-rounder. Even with fourth- and sixth-round picks, this deal is a net victory for Atlanta on the Johnson chart. It is in a position to target the best prospect available, which could be a quarterback at this point of Round 1.

For Pittsburgh, this is using what the organization does well to replenish its biggest weakness. The organization has an incredible track record of finding receivers in the middle rounds, with Claypool the latest member of a group that includes Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The latter is due for a massive extension, which would make it difficult for the Steelers to then offer Claypool a similar deal the following offseason. There was at least a little friction between Claypool and the organization last season, and while I don't think it was enough to force a trade, this would be a chance for Pittsburgh to get a significant draft pick in return.

In this scenario, the Steelers sacrifice Claypool and the No. 20 pick to move up and get their quarterback of the future. They can use their second- or third-round pick to draft Claypool's replacement, sign Johnson to an extension and move forward with a transitioning core on offense. This deal values Claypool as being worth something in the ballpark of the No. 34 pick in a typical draft.

Gross.


Why do you think that? I know this trade is a purely clickbait construction, with no real legs, but I'll contend that Claypool is better than any WR currently on the Pack's roster and better than any likely WR option at #22. He's been reasonably productive, and he's been durable to this point.

*Plus*, Claypool's production, like other Steeler WR's has been negatively impacted by Big Ben's arm limitations over the last couple of years.
*******************************************************
jakecronus8
RealGM
Posts: 16,788
And1: 8,188
Joined: Feb 06, 2006
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#762 » by jakecronus8 » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:29 am

Long story short, he’s an egotistical tool.
Do it for Chuck
Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#763 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:34 am

jakecronus8 wrote:Long story short, he’s an egotistical tool.


That seems to be a normal job feature for most WR's... :lol:

I'll concede there's definitely a sliding scale of egotistical toolness. At some point, eye-rolling sufferance crosses into strangling on the sidelines...
*******************************************************
DrWood
Head Coach
Posts: 6,496
And1: 2,383
Joined: Jul 08, 2014

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#764 » by DrWood » Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:42 am

Treebeard wrote:
jakecronus8 wrote:
Treebeard wrote:This one has been floating around this week, but I don't think we've batted around(From Bill Barnwell at ESPN):


Gross.


Why do you think that? I know this trade is a purely clickbait construction, with no real legs, but I'll contend that Claypool is better than any WR currently on the Pack's roster and better than any likely WR option at #22. He's been reasonably productive, and he's been durable to this point.

*Plus*, Claypool's production, like other Steeler WR's has been negatively impacted by Big Ben's arm limitations over the last couple of years.

It values Claypool as a #25 FRP (since the pack also gets a 4th). That seems reasonable. I'm not advocating for it, but it's a reasonable swap.
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 108,334
And1: 42,552
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#765 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:59 pm

You only have Claypool under contract for two more seasons (one if he does well and wants a big extension). That, combined with good but not great production, is why he's not worth a 1st round pick.
Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#766 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:07 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:You only have Claypool under contract for two more seasons (one if he does well and wants a big extension). That, combined with good but not great production, is why he's not worth a 1st round pick.


Two years from now Rogers is probably done, so it's scorched earth after that anyway.

Starting Sept 2022, who are they going to find, ready to roll that's better at #22? Claypool's no Davante Adams, but none of the potential draftees are more skilled than Claypool at this point. Everyone of the top tier guys have some notable limitations - either too small, too slow, mending up from injury, work-in-progress on routes, etc. They will have a learning and productivity curve to climb first. So what if they figure it out by 2024?

Again, I know the Claypool trade was a hot-stove clickbait workup by Barnwell, but I'm getting less impressed with the top tier WR draftees everyday. I'm a rube at the details, but I'm thinking picking a 2-3 WR's on day 2 and none on day 1 is sounding better.
*******************************************************
Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#767 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:38 pm

As I noted above, I'm becoming more leery of all of the guys described as the top tier WR's in this draft. Given that thought, here's my hot take for today: Christian Watson is the only WR I'd pick in the first round, at #28. Picking him is a complete boom-or-bust gamble. By betting the farm on re-signing Rogers and completely disregarding any future team past 2024 or 2025, Gute's already sunk his future on immediate success. Why not roll on the one guy that has all the physical attributes - big and fast. Watson's one of the guys two years from now where both pundits and fans are either saying: "Gute's a flippin genius, OR WTF was that idiot thinking?!?!?" Watson's the proverbial Schroedinger's Cat in this batch of draftee's - you don't know if he's great, or a zero until he plays in October

If you're gambling your job future on winning a long-shot (another Packer SB), then go big, or get out.

*edit* A caveat on the perceived top tier WR guys. I'm not trading up for any of the top 5-6 guys. I'm not even picking one of them at #22, I'd find more value in picking either an OL or DL, or Edge guy @ #22
*******************************************************
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 108,334
And1: 42,552
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#768 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:50 pm

The issue isn't only with Claypool vs #22. It's Claypool and #22 AND the lost cap space next spring when you're presumably giving out one of these ludicrous WR contracts. The Packers still have a number of key guys to extend that rate much higher than a WR.

The best thing to do is go out and get your own productive and cheap WR. There are guys taken in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th this season that we'll look back and say they should have gone much higher. The odds of that happening in GB are high, if for no other reason than they're going to be one of the only viable targets for Rodgers.
Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#769 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:56 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:The issue isn't only with Claypool vs #22. It's Claypool and #22 AND the lost cap space next spring when you're presumably giving out one of these ludicrous WR contracts. The Packers still have a number of key guys to extend that rate much higher than a WR.

The best thing to do is go out and get your own productive and cheap WR. There are guys taken in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th this season that we'll look back and say they should have gone much higher. The odds of that happening in GB are high, if for no other reason than they're going to be one of the only viable targets for Rodgers.


I get your logic, and normally I'd agree, but I'm SB win this year, or Gute and Murphy need to hit the road. They bet the farm on immediate success, and I don't see that with any of those good, but flawed top tier guys at #22. Even my hot take of picking Watson at #28 is based on the highly unlikely prospect of him magically morphing into Justin Jefferson right out of the box.)
*******************************************************
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 108,334
And1: 42,552
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#770 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:59 pm

I think the Packers are stuck with Rodgers for the next three seasons. At the very least they need to make sure they keep core All-Pro types like Jaire and Jenkins for that duration. As for WR, ideally they'd have at least one pick come in and look like a future #1. It's not all or bust this season. Rodgers is still gonna be around a while.
User avatar
MickeyDavis
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 104,535
And1: 56,723
Joined: May 02, 2002
Location: The Craps Table
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#771 » by MickeyDavis » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:17 pm

One of the most "rich" wide receiver crops in a long time and yet many will end up being busts. Please don't draft one of them.

I've never looked forward to a Packers draft more in the last several years. So many ways it can go.
I'm against picketing but I don't know how to show it.
Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#772 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:17 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:I think the Packers are stuck with Rodgers for the next three seasons. At the very least they need to make sure they keep core All-Pro types like Jaire and Jenkins for that duration. As for WR, ideally they'd have at least one pick come in and look like a future #1. It's not all or bust this season. Rodgers is still gonna be around a while.


I think Rogers is gone after next season, or at the latest by end of 2023 season. (I'm one who was for tearing the bandaid off and trading Rogers when they had the chance, but that option is long gone now, so we have to make the best of that critical strategic move. But it's all or nothing as far as I'm concerned). IF he goes down to injury and injuries take longer to heal as the age and mileage accumulate, the SB window closes. (Yeah, yeah, yeah - I'm being Debbie Downer here)

Losing Davante, for me was a giant step backwards (loss of a supreme talent), but with some silver linings for fixing other weak spots. Still, I'm not persuaded this is a better overall team than the one that couldn't get over the hump the last two seasons. The ST's can't be worse than the previous ones, right? But, what about Bahk's and Jenkins recovery's, and with Patrick's and Turner's departure, how good is the OLine at protecting Rogers and opening holes for Jones and Dillon? What about necessary depth across the board in a seventeen game season that physically wears down your top players? The Pack has several top-flight players, but big drop offs, once those guys come off the field.
*******************************************************
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 108,334
And1: 42,552
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#773 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:59 pm

Matt Miller on ESPN has a full seven round mock:

#22 - Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M
#28 - Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
#53 - Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
#59 - Dominique Robinson, DE, Miami (OH)
#92 - Malcolm Rodriguez, LB, Oklahoma State
#132 - Eric Johnson, DT, Missouri State
#140 - Tre Turner, WR, Virginia Tech
#171 - Carson Strong, QB, Nevada
#228 - Myron Cunningham, OT, Arkansas
#249 - Tyree Johnson, DE, Texas A&M
#258 - EJ Perry, ATH, Brown

I'd be pretty pissed if the Packers went IOL in any of the first two rounds. I don't love McBride either. Carson Strong could be a very good pick.
User avatar
M-C-G
RealGM
Posts: 23,523
And1: 9,849
Joined: Jan 13, 2013
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#774 » by M-C-G » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:02 pm

Treebeard wrote:This one has been floating around this week, but I don't think we've batted around(From Bill Barnwell at ESPN):

22. Green Bay Packers (via LV)

Packers get: WR Chase Claypool (from Steelers), 4-114 (from Falcons)
Steelers get: 1-8, 6-190 (from Falcons)
Falcons get: 1-20 (from Steelers), 1-22 (from Packers)

.



I'd be very interested in Claypool, but not at a first round price tag. I think you'd get more bang for you buck with a guy like Tyler Lockett that would cost less. But if we are talking a second and maybe a fourth for Chase, now we are in the ballpark.
Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#775 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:04 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Matt Miller on ESPN has a full seven round mock:

#22 - Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M
#28 - Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
#53 - Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
#59 - Dominique Robinson, DE, Miami (OH)
#92 - Malcolm Rodriguez, LB, Oklahoma State
#132 - Eric Johnson, DT, Missouri State
#140 - Tre Turner, WR, Virginia Tech
#171 - Carson Strong, QB, Nevada
#228 - Myron Cunningham, OT, Arkansas
#249 - Tyree Johnson, DE, Texas A&M
#258 - EJ Perry, ATH, Brown

I'd be pretty pissed if the Packers went IOL in any of the first two rounds. I don't love McBride either. Carson Strong could be a very good pick.


Agreed. Strong's the only value pick on that list, IMO.
*******************************************************
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 108,334
And1: 42,552
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#776 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:08 pm

I'd be happy with Burks at #28. I think he's become underrated since the combine. But given how well they do drafting 3rd day OL and the guys we have on the interior now, there's no reason to use a high pick a guard.
User avatar
M-C-G
RealGM
Posts: 23,523
And1: 9,849
Joined: Jan 13, 2013
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#777 » by M-C-G » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:11 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:One of the most "rich" wide receiver crops in a long time and yet many will end up being busts. Please don't draft one of them.

I've never looked forward to a Packers draft more in the last several years. So many ways it can go.


I like this class personally, but it reminds me of the 2001 draft class. That class was suppose to be incredible, it was really hyped up. I guess Santana, Wayne and Johnson were really good. Chambers pretty good, but that was suppose to be a really loaded class.

David Terrell
Koren Robinson
Rod Gardner
Santana Moss
Freddie Mitchell
Reggie Wayne
Quincy Morgan
Chad Johnson
Turd Ferguson
Chris Chambers

More recently, 2017 (And this is WR and TE)
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
OJ Howard
Evan Engram
David Njoku
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel

Some ok players out of that, but really disappointing career production out of most of that class.
User avatar
M-C-G
RealGM
Posts: 23,523
And1: 9,849
Joined: Jan 13, 2013
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#778 » by M-C-G » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:15 pm

Not to muddy the draft talk too much, but let's say we move a second for Waller, a second and fourth Claypool, and trade back in the first to get another 2nd, and acquire Lockett. That seems incredibly doable, and fits really nicely in our window with Rodgers

Claypool .......Waller x x x x x....Lockett.......Lazard
..........................Rodgers

......................Dillon........Jones

That would be a really fun offense and still leave us with some draft capital to get a starting OT in this draft.
Treebeard
General Manager
Posts: 7,879
And1: 1,971
Joined: Jun 17, 2009
Location: Out in the Driftless Area
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#779 » by Treebeard » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:36 pm

One thing with Lazard (IMO), he plays like a TE. He's almost a hybrid.
*******************************************************
User avatar
Matches Malone
RealGM
Posts: 36,955
And1: 27,176
Joined: Nov 23, 2005
     

Re: 2022 NFL Draft discussion 

Post#780 » by Matches Malone » Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:49 pm

Slow day at work = Mock Draft Simulator time :lol: . Thursday can't come soon enough

Todays Results:
Image
Gery Woelfel wrote:Got a time big boy?

Return to Green Bay Packers