2023 NFL Draft Thread - Round 1 Thursday 7:00 PM

[MVP2110]

No chance Levis is there. I don't see anyone massively trading up for Hooker, but who knows. I'm going to say the top 4 QB being gone by our first, whether it is 13 or 15, is a lock though.

Don't see how you don't have JSN, Van Ness, Murphy, or Smith in your "anywhere in the first" list either. You docked JSN for believing he's only slot, but then put Flowers, who is 5-9, ahead of him? I mean....

Smith I'd probably be okay with, but he's pretty light for an OLB.

Van Ness and Murphy are raw and I'm not sold on them the way I am other guys. Both could be good. I don't know.

Yes I have Flowers ahead of JSN.

I will say you're list is very contrarion(not necessarily wrong, we'll see in a few years)

Out of curiosity why do you have Flowers ahead of JSN?

[ReasonablySober]

No chance Levis is there. I don't see anyone massively trading up for Hooker, but who knows. I'm going to say the top 4 QB being gone by our first, whether it is 13 or 15, is a lock though.

Don't see how you don't have JSN, Van Ness, Murphy, or Smith in your "anywhere in the first" list either. You docked JSN for believing he's only slot, but then put Flowers, who is 5-9, ahead of him? I mean....

Smith I'd probably be okay with, but he's pretty light for an OLB.

Van Ness and Murphy are raw and I'm not sold on them the way I am other guys. Both could be good. I don't know.

Yes I have Flowers ahead of JSN.

I will say you're list is very contrarion(not necessarily wrong, we'll see in a few years)

Out of curiosity why do you have Flowers ahead of JSN?

Flowers dominated despite playing with terrible QBs. He's accustomed to making plays on bad balls. Once the ball is in his hands he's a highlight machine. Explosive as hell.

[MVP2110]

Smith I'd probably be okay with, but he's pretty light for an OLB.

Van Ness and Murphy are raw and I'm not sold on them the way I am other guys. Both could be good. I don't know.

Yes I have Flowers ahead of JSN.

I will say you're list is very contrarion(not necessarily wrong, we'll see in a few years)

Out of curiosity why do you have Flowers ahead of JSN?

Flowers dominated despite playing with terrible QBs. He's accustomed to making plays on bad balls. Once the ball is in his hands he's a highlight machine. Explosive as hell.

Define dominate? His best season was over 500 yards less than JSNs? JSN & Flowers have roughly the same RAS score so they are similar level athletes.

As for the "making plays on bad balls" the numbers don't really back that up

"Flowers’ catch% ranked 310 out of 333 qualifiers in 2021, and 340 out of 393 qualifiers in 2020"

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/4/18/23687057/nfl-draft-2023-the-wrops-wraps-overrated-wide-receiver-list

[ReasonablySober]

I will say you're list is very contrarion(not necessarily wrong, we'll see in a few years)

Out of curiosity why do you have Flowers ahead of JSN?

Flowers dominated despite playing with terrible QBs. He's accustomed to making plays on bad balls. Once the ball is in his hands he's a highlight machine. Explosive as hell.

Define dominate? His best season was over 500 yards less than JSNs? JSN & Flowers have roughly the same RAS score so they are similar level athletes.

As for the "making plays on bad balls" the numbers don't really back that up

"Flowers’ catch% ranked 310 out of 333 qualifiers in 2021, and 340 out of 393 qualifiers in 2020"

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/4/18/23687057/nfl-draft-2023-the-wrops-wraps-overrated-wide-receiver-list

My point is Flowers was had to make do with bad balls all the time because he wasn't playing with NFL caliber QBs. He's going to be a monster in NFL with good QB play.

[MVP2110]

Flowers dominated despite playing with terrible QBs. He's accustomed to making plays on bad balls. Once the ball is in his hands he's a highlight machine. Explosive as hell.

Define dominate? His best season was over 500 yards less than JSNs? JSN & Flowers have roughly the same RAS score so they are similar level athletes.

As for the "making plays on bad balls" the numbers don't really back that up

"Flowers’ catch% ranked 310 out of 333 qualifiers in 2021, and 340 out of 393 qualifiers in 2020"

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/4/18/23687057/nfl-draft-2023-the-wrops-wraps-overrated-wide-receiver-list

My point is Flowers was had to make do with bad balls all the time because he wasn't playing with NFL caliber QBs. He's going to be a monster in NFL with good QB play.

Alot of college WRs have crappy QBs and caught a much higher % of targets than Flowers did. He's small & has short arms. He's a smooth route runner but that's about it, JSN out ranks him in basically everything.

You have a pretty random group of WRs listed as a whole so I'm curious what traits you like in a WR

Flowers, Downs, Dell, Perry are all pretty different as WRs. I'm very low on Flowers, Downs, & Dell personally so I'm curious what you see in them

[ReasonablySober]

Define dominate? His best season was over 500 yards less than JSNs? JSN & Flowers have roughly the same RAS score so they are similar level athletes.

As for the "making plays on bad balls" the numbers don't really back that up

"Flowers’ catch% ranked 310 out of 333 qualifiers in 2021, and 340 out of 393 qualifiers in 2020"

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/4/18/23687057/nfl-draft-2023-the-wrops-wraps-overrated-wide-receiver-list

My point is Flowers was had to make do with bad balls all the time because he wasn't playing with NFL caliber QBs. He's going to be a monster in NFL with good QB play.

Alot of college WRs have crappy QBs and caught a much higher % of targets than Flowers did. He's small & has short arms. He's a smooth route runner but that's about it, JSN out ranks him in basically everything.

You have a pretty random group of WRs listed as a whole so I'm curious what traits you like in a WR

Flowers, Downs, Dell, Perry are all pretty different as WRs. I'm very low on Flowers, Downs, & Dell personally so I'm curious what you see in them

I like explosive traits. My only two 1st round WRs are Flowers and Johnston. I'd be happy with JSN in the 2nd but I don't think he lasts that far. The others I listed are 2nd round guys that have a good shot of being there.

[MVP2110]

My point is Flowers was had to make do with bad balls all the time because he wasn't playing with NFL caliber QBs. He's going to be a monster in NFL with good QB play.

Alot of college WRs have crappy QBs and caught a much higher % of targets than Flowers did. He's small & has short arms. He's a smooth route runner but that's about it, JSN out ranks him in basically everything.

You have a pretty random group of WRs listed as a whole so I'm curious what traits you like in a WR

Flowers, Downs, Dell, Perry are all pretty different as WRs. I'm very low on Flowers, Downs, & Dell personally so I'm curious what you see in them

I like explosive traits. My only two 1st round WRs are Flowers and Johnston. I'd be happy with JSN in the 2nd but I don't think he lasts that far. The others I listed are 2nd round guys that have a good shot of being there.

I guess I don't understand what you mean by "explosive traits" JSN seems much more explosive to me then Flowers.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on prospects, you and I seem to have very different preferences on guys

[LUKE23]

Flowers had a 8.30 RAS, JSN had a 9.29 RAS even if you use the 4.53 40. I just feel like JSN's athleticism is being downplayed.

[M-C-G]

Flowers had a 8.30 RAS, JSN had a 9.29 RAS even if you use the 4.53 40. I just feel like JSN's athleticism is being downplayed.

Because too many of us casuals equate 40 time to athleticism. And sad to say, many of the YT 'draft experts' are really just casuals.

This WR class in particular has a LOT of high flaw players, and by that I don't mean they weren't/aren't/won't be good, but you have to overlook a giant flaw in each of their games if you want them. To me, JSN stacked right up there with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and while not as fast, he certainly isn't slow. To me he is about as complete of a WR with high upside as you will find in this draft.

Most the other top 10 guys you are hoping become a sane Antonio Brown, but I just don't see it with way too many of these guys. I think in typical years guys like Addison and Flowers are probably 3 to 4th round guys that you more realistically hope can become Diontae Johnson.

This particular year though, they are guys that are at the top 5 of the WR class. Says more about the class than the player to me. JSN is probably my only exception and hell, he was just hurt for an entire year.

[ReasonablySober]

Doug Farrar's probably the draft expert I respect the most, at least when it comes to guys in thee first three rounds. I see he released his top WRs list.I agree with most of it.

1 - Flowers
2 - JSN
3 - Addison
4 - Hyatt
5 - Johnston
6 - Tillman
7 - Downs
8 - Mims Jr.

[Ron Swanson]

Unless you think Flowers is some potential mix between Steve Smith and Tyreek Hill, I have an awful tough time rating him that high. He's a great athlete but it's not like he tested off the charts either.

[MVP2110]

Unless you think Flowers is some potential mix between Steve Smith and Tyreek Hill, I have an awful tough time rating him that high. He's a great athlete but it's not like he tested off the charts either.

Yea I honestly don't get how people see Flowers or Addison as 1st round prospects.

[Frank Nova]

Watching some more Michael Mayer.. 1 big criticism that just jumps off the tape is how slow and methodical he looks when he runs. Fluid runner unlike Darnell Washington but nothing close to a burner that’s for sure. But, having said that, the dude has clouds for hands and catches everything and always seems to find himself open so it’s really hard to tell how actually fast he plays? I mean dude made some insane catches for being such a massive human being. Im not gonna be upset at all if he’s the guy.. I can definitely see why some rank him TE1. Professional conditioning and training could do wonders for him and if he does add some extra juice to his overall movement, he could really be a force in the league.

[sdn40]

The problem is, fans are trying to force a weak WR class into the need they see on the Packers, and want it to be in the First Round. It's been widely reported that most teams only see (1) Round 1 prospect. This will lead to him being over drafted even if he would have been rated no more than WR #5 in last years class. Bad teams will panic despite the weak class, while good teams will stick to their board. The "top" of this years class will likely be overdrafted

[MickeyDavis]

Current betting odds on who will be our first pick (not necessarily first ROUND pick, if he trade out of the first round it's whoever we take first). Position is determined by the NFL Network live broadcast

WR +235
DL +250
OL +250
TE +320
DB +750
LB +3300
QB +8000
RB +8000

Trying to figure out a couple of bets to make it more interesting.

[sdn40]

Watching some more Michael Mayer.. 1 big criticism that just jumps off the tape is how slow and methodical he looks when he runs. Fluid runner unlike Darnell Washington but nothing close to a burner that’s for sure. But, having said that, the dude has clouds for hands and catches everything and always seems to find himself open so it’s really hard to tell how actually fast he plays? I mean dude made some insane catches for being such a massive human being. Im not gonna be upset at all if he’s the guy.. I can definitely see why some rank him TE1. Professional conditioning and training could do wonders for him and if he does add some extra juice to his overall movement, he could really be a force in the league.

The problem I have with Mayer is if he had slight problems separating in college, he is gonna have major problems separating in the NFL. He is a square body throwback and you will have to live with the limitations. The question is, which Round do the limitations still provide value ? Certainly not Round 1 pick #15 IMO.

Also, how is he better than LaPorta who can be had a Round or two later ?

[LUKE23]

The problem is, fans are trying to force a weak WR class into the need they see on the Packers, and want it to be in the First Round. It's been widely reported that most teams only see (1) Round 1 prospect. This will lead to him being over drafted even if he would have been rated no more than WR #5 in last years class. Bad teams will panic despite the weak class, while good teams will stick to their board. The "top" of this years class will likely be overdrafted

It's not a strong WR class for top end guys, but many have JSN in their top 15 overall players. His consensus big board ranking is #13.

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2023/consensus-big-board-2023

I just don't think he would be a reach unless he was taken over someone crazy that slipped, or a QB slips and we turn down a good trade down opportunity (I think there is a zero percent chance any of the top 4 QB fall to 13 or 15).

[ReasonablySober]

The problem is, fans are trying to force a weak WR class into the need they see on the Packers, and want it to be in the First Round. It's been widely reported that most teams only see (1) Round 1 prospect. This will lead to him being over drafted even if he would have been rated no more than WR #5 in last years class. Bad teams will panic despite the weak class, while good teams will stick to their board. The "top" of this years class will likely be overdrafted

It's not a strong WR class for top end guys, but many have JSN in their top 15 overall players. His consensus big board ranking is #13.

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2023/consensus-big-board-2023

I just don't think he would be a reach unless he was taken over someone crazy that slipped, or a QB slips and we turn down a good trade down opportunity (I think there is a zero percent chance any of the top 4 QB fall to 13 or 15).

That's more a representation of how week the draft class is as a whole. It's about as bad as I can ever remember.

[LUKE23]

That's more a representation of how week the draft class is as a whole. It's about as bad as I can ever remember.

Definitely lacking for star power. I think the sweet spot is 30-50, which is why I was really hoping to land both Jets 2nds.

[sdn40]

The problem is, fans are trying to force a weak WR class into the need they see on the Packers, and want it to be in the First Round. It's been widely reported that most teams only see (1) Round 1 prospect. This will lead to him being over drafted even if he would have been rated no more than WR #5 in last years class. Bad teams will panic despite the weak class, while good teams will stick to their board. The "top" of this years class will likely be overdrafted

It's not a strong WR class for top end guys, but many have JSN in their top 15 overall players. His consensus big board ranking is #13.

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2023/consensus-big-board-2023

I just don't think he would be a reach unless he was taken over someone crazy that slipped, or a QB slips and we turn down a good trade down opportunity (I think there is a zero percent chance any of the top 4 QB fall to 13 or 15).

If JSN would have been a 2nd Round prospect last year, how good is he ?

Also, your idea of a premium guy slipping is far too narrow. At pick #15 Gute is gonna be a high upside, high athletic, at a premium position drafter. Rashan Gary is the example when he was chosen at #12. This will include ER, OT, CB, and maybe DT. Yes, 99% of fans hate that idea, but 99% of fans draft with their Madden instead of their brain.

And good GM's are far more patient than fans. The Packers next window is likely 3 years away if lucky. Not all needs will be met with this one draft. Reaching for "need" will only prolong the process