2023 NFL Draft Thread - Round 1 Thursday 7:00 PM

[ReasonablySober]

Even the nerds who have spilled thousands of heavily researched words on how running backs in the first is a bad idea agree that in this specific case Robinson is worth a pick in the top half 1st round.

[M-C-G]

I feel like we are fairly set at CB and OL for now. We just took DL last year (not that I would be opposed if it was the right player this year) and I feel like we scored our boundary WRs in the last draft.

So now I'm thinking what sets up Love the best for lets say the next 3-5 years. And personally I think there are probably 3 absolute stud game changing guys in Bijan, JSN and Kincaid in this draft. If I use a first to get one, I think I am good with it. There are a lot of guys that could fill those positions later in the draft, I just personally think these three are the guys that are stars and in particular I don't think JSN or Bijan should ever fall to 15, but I suspect one of the two may be there.

All that said, I've also done a bunch of trade down mocks and gone edge in the first and ended up with some draft I really liked too. Should be fun, probably more excited for this season than any in a long, long time.

[MVP2110]

Yes. Because I'm not an idiot that makes hard and fast rules about positions. All that matters is the prospect. You think the Bengals regret taking Chase over Sewell? Vikings taking Jefferson in the first round? Bills trading a 1st for DIggs? Dallas taking Lamb?

If a team thinks they're getting the next Travis Kelce, do you really think they would wait until the second or third round to get him?

Calling people who believe in positional value idiots sure is a take. I have zero issues with a team taking a 1st round WR, but there are certain positions where it's proven either don't provide a ton of value relative to other positions(RB, IOL, ILB), or others where quality players are consistently found late in the draft(TE)

There's a difference between believing in positional value, and flatly saying you wouldn't ever take a [WR, TE, or RB] in the first round.

It's not like I've been overzealous in arguing for a tight end or running back in the first consistently over the years. Reggie Bush and Vernon Davis, probably?

I don't even love a WR in round one this year. I think I only listed two WRs I'm into this year, and both are down the list.

But I think the TE class is exceptional and I wouldn't trust that the Packers can get a star in the 2nd round. I also think Robinson is going to be an All Pro that provides exceptional value as a receiver as well and Gibbs has a good shot at being an elite weapon. Given that the rest of this draft class is flaming dog ****, I wouldn't be upset with a RB or TE in this draft.

But what makes you think TE evaluation has changed so dramatically that good ones can't be found late or that the high bust rate of 1st round TEs won't continue? I absolutely agree a high end TE can make a substantial impact on a team, I'm just extremely complex that we have figured out a way to identify who those tight ends are. As far as RB I think Bijan is the best RB prospect to come out in over a decade but in order for me to take a rd 1 RB the situation would have to be perfect, Philly at 30 I think would make a lot of sense for example. But I just don't believe the value of a RB is great enough to justify ever using a high pick on it and on top of that it's also been shown to be a position you can find really good value late in the draft

[M-C-G]

Even the nerds who have spilled thousands of heavily researched words on how running backs in the first is a bad idea agree that in this specific case Robinson is worth a pick in the top half 1st round.

Bijan (and actually Gibbs too) are pretty prolific guys in the passing game. I think assuming Bijan is 'just a RB' is a mistake, wouldn't shock me to see him lining up in the slot frequently, he has those kind of receiving skills.

[MVP2110]

Even the nerds who have spilled thousands of heavily researched words on how running backs in the first is a bad idea agree that in this specific case Robinson is worth a pick in the top half 1st round.

Show me these nerds? I know Sam Monson of PFF recently wrote a piece saying Bijan should be taken in the 20s and MAYBE as high as Philly at 10, but they also discussed on their podcast the other day how Sam is basically off on an island at PFF with that opinion

[Matches Malone]

The Safety class remains perplexing to me. Not a lot of high-end talent this year. Jordan Battle from Alabama might be my favorite. I kind of like some of the corners that project to safety more than some of the Safties that played the position in college. Keele Ringo, Riley Moss, and Quan Martin seem like solid fits on the backend.

[ReasonablySober]

Even the nerds who have spilled thousands of heavily researched words on how running backs in the first is a bad idea agree that in this specific case Robinson is worth a pick in the top half 1st round.

Show me these nerds? I know Sam Monson of PFF recently wrote a piece saying Bijan should be taken in the 20s and MAYBE as high as Philly at 10, but they also discussed on their podcast the other day how Sam is basically off on an island at PFF with that opinion

I listened to a pod last week with Mina Kimes and Bleacher Report's lead NFL Draft writer and both said he should go top 15. Farrar's another guy who thinks the Eagles at #10 would be a perfect spot.

PFF's Editor's mock has him #17:

16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS
Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and while the current view of the position league-wide may not see him go second overall, his lasting this long may not be realistic. Robinson led the nation in forced missed tackles in 2022 with 104 — a record since PFF began recording the stat for college football — and placed fifth in yards after contact with 1,071. Importantly in today’s game, he’s also a very capable receiver.

It’s understandable to wonder why this is the pick with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson on the roster already, but Gibson is entering a contract year and Commanders top personnel executives Martin Mayhew and Marty Hurney have never been afraid to use premium draft capital at the position in their various stops across the NFL.

[MVP2110]

Even the nerds who have spilled thousands of heavily researched words on how running backs in the first is a bad idea agree that in this specific case Robinson is worth a pick in the top half 1st round.

Show me these nerds? I know Sam Monson of PFF recently wrote a piece saying Bijan should be taken in the 20s and MAYBE as high as Philly at 10, but they also discussed on their podcast the other day how Sam is basically off on an island at PFF with that opinion

I listened to a pod last week with Mina Kimes and Bleacher Report's lead NFL Draft writer and both said he should go top 15. Farrar's another guy who thinks the Eagles at #10 would be a perfect spot.

So a small percentage of overall "football nerds" basically, most still agree they wouldnt take him in R1. Fwiw I do agree Bijan is a generational RB prospect which is why I have him rated 40th on my board and for specific teams like Philly I'd consider him late R1. But there is zero chance I'm taking him over any of

1. Bryce Young
2. CJ Stroud
3. Will Anderson
4. Jalen Carter
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
6. Paris Johnson
7. Broderick Jones
8. Lukas Van Ness
9. Devon Witherspoon
10. Joey Porter Jr.
11. Myles Murphy
12. Darnell Wright
13. Bryan Bresee
14. Christian Gonzalez
15. Nolan Smith

[ReasonablySober]

Show me these nerds? I know Sam Monson of PFF recently wrote a piece saying Bijan should be taken in the 20s and MAYBE as high as Philly at 10, but they also discussed on their podcast the other day how Sam is basically off on an island at PFF with that opinion

I listened to a pod last week with Mina Kimes and Bleacher Report's lead NFL Draft writer and both said he should go top 15. Farrar's another guy who thinks the Eagles at #10 would be a perfect spot.

So a small percentage of overall "football nerds" basically, most still agree they wouldnt take him in R1. Fwiw I do agree Bijan is a generational RB prospect which is why I have him rated 40th on my board and for specific teams like Philly I'd consider him late R1. But there is zero chance I'm taking him over any of

1. Bryce Young
2. CJ Stroud
3. Will Anderson
4. Jalen Carter
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
6. Paris Johnson
7. Broderick Jones
8. Lukas Van Ness
9. Devon Witherspoon
10. Joey Porter Jr.
11. Myles Murphy
12. Darnell Wright
13. Bryan Bresee
14. Christian Gonzalez
15. Nolan Smith

I'm not saying it's a small percentage. Virtually every place I see mock drafts have him going in the first round.

[sdn40]

Take a RB at #15 when this team literally couldn't play a football game tomorrow because they don't have enough DL to do so ? Add in the fact that they will play the bulk of the season with 2 ER and one will be 31 years old. Or the fact they have zero legit safeties. Maybe discuss that this is Bak's last year and Nijman may not be around either. Maybe we could draft a long snapper in the 2nd round. Yet I'm called an idiot.

[MVP2110]

Even the nerds who have spilled thousands of heavily researched words on how running backs in the first is a bad idea agree that in this specific case Robinson is worth a pick in the top half 1st round.

Show me these nerds? I know Sam Monson of PFF recently wrote a piece saying Bijan should be taken in the 20s and MAYBE as high as Philly at 10, but they also discussed on their podcast the other day how Sam is basically off on an island at PFF with that opinion

I listened to a pod last week with Mina Kimes and Bleacher Report's lead NFL Draft writer and both said he should go top 15. Farrar's another guy who thinks the Eagles at #10 would be a perfect spot.

PFF's Editor's mock has him #17:

16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS
Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and while the current view of the position league-wide may not see him go second overall, his lasting this long may not be realistic. Robinson led the nation in forced missed tackles in 2022 with 104 — a record since PFF began recording the stat for college football — and placed fifth in yards after contact with 1,071. Importantly in today’s game, he’s also a very capable receiver.

It’s understandable to wonder why this is the pick with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson on the roster already, but Gibson is entering a contract year and Commanders top personnel executives Martin Mayhew and Marty Hurney have never been afraid to use premium draft capital at the position in their various stops across the NFL.

This mock isn't about what they think teams should do. They take Richardson 1 for Carolina and the 1st line is how they think Bryce Young is better

[ReasonablySober]

Take a RB at #15 when this team literally couldn't play a football game tomorrow because they don't have enough DL to do so ? Add in the fact that they will play the bulk of the season with 2 ER. Or the fact they have zero legit safeties. Maybe discuss that this is Bak's last year and Nijman may not be around either. Maybe we could draft a long snapper in the 2nd round. Yet I'm called an idiot.

Would you take Chase in the first round? Adrian Peterson? LaDainian Tomlinson? Calvin Johnson?

[ReasonablySober]

Show me these nerds? I know Sam Monson of PFF recently wrote a piece saying Bijan should be taken in the 20s and MAYBE as high as Philly at 10, but they also discussed on their podcast the other day how Sam is basically off on an island at PFF with that opinion

I listened to a pod last week with Mina Kimes and Bleacher Report's lead NFL Draft writer and both said he should go top 15. Farrar's another guy who thinks the Eagles at #10 would be a perfect spot.

PFF's Editor's mock has him #17:

16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS
Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and while the current view of the position league-wide may not see him go second overall, his lasting this long may not be realistic. Robinson led the nation in forced missed tackles in 2022 with 104 — a record since PFF began recording the stat for college football — and placed fifth in yards after contact with 1,071. Importantly in today’s game, he’s also a very capable receiver.

It’s understandable to wonder why this is the pick with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson on the roster already, but Gibson is entering a contract year and Commanders top personnel executives Martin Mayhew and Marty Hurney have never been afraid to use premium draft capital at the position in their various stops across the NFL.

This mock isn't about what they think teams should do. They take Richardson 1 for Carolina and the 1st line is how they think Bryce Young is better

Young is better, but I'd still probably take Richardson 1/1.

[Ron Swanson]

There's some people here who would defend passing on Adrian Peterson and Tony Gonzales because of a stubborn list of position rules they've created for themselves and it's baffling. If you wanna think that Bijan is just gonna be another Trent Richardson then that's your prerogative. I've personally maintained that I would almost never spend a 1st round pick on a Mike linebacker, but would I pass on a guy I view as a Ray Lewis, Luke Kuechly, or Patrick Willis caliber prospect just to take the 5th best tackle prospect? Of course not, that's **** idiotic.

[MVP2110]

I listened to a pod last week with Mina Kimes and Bleacher Report's lead NFL Draft writer and both said he should go top 15. Farrar's another guy who thinks the Eagles at #10 would be a perfect spot.

PFF's Editor's mock has him #17:

This mock isn't about what they think teams should do. They take Richardson 1 for Carolina and the 1st line is how they think Bryce Young is better

Young is better, but I'd still probably take Richardson 1/1.

Let's forget RB discussion for a second and go back to TE,

what makes you think TE evaluation has changed so dramatically that good ones can't be found late or that the high bust rate of 1st round TEs won't continue

[ReasonablySober]

This mock isn't about what they think teams should do. They take Richardson 1 for Carolina and the 1st line is how they think Bryce Young is better

Young is better, but I'd still probably take Richardson 1/1.

Let's forget RB discussion for a second and go back to TE,

what makes you think TE evaluation has changed so dramatically that good ones can't be found late or that the high bust rate of 1st round TEs won't continue

I don't consider positions in a vacuum. I look at individual prospects. Bust rate has absolutely nothing to do with how I view these guys.

[sdn40]

Take a RB at #15 when this team literally couldn't play a football game tomorrow because they don't have enough DL to do so ? Add in the fact that they will play the bulk of the season with 2 ER. Or the fact they have zero legit safeties. Maybe discuss that this is Bak's last year and Nijman may not be around either. Maybe we could draft a long snapper in the 2nd round. Yet I'm called an idiot.

Would you take Chase in the first round? Adrian Peterson? LaDainian Tomlinson? Calvin Johnson?

Would you take Reggie White ? Ed Reed ? Derrick Brooks ? Did I do it right ?
And until I can call you an idiot to keep the playing field level, don't quote my posts. That would be trolling.

[ReasonablySober]

Take a RB at #15 when this team literally couldn't play a football game tomorrow because they don't have enough DL to do so ? Add in the fact that they will play the bulk of the season with 2 ER. Or the fact they have zero legit safeties. Maybe discuss that this is Bak's last year and Nijman may not be around either. Maybe we could draft a long snapper in the 2nd round. Yet I'm called an idiot.

Would you take Chase in the first round? Adrian Peterson? LaDainian Tomlinson? Calvin Johnson?

Would you take Reggie White ? Ed Reed ? Derrick Brooks ?
And until I can call you an idiot to keep the playing field level, don't quote my posts.

Of course.

And call me an idiot all you want. The hell do I care?

Like Ron Swanson just said, if you wouldn't take a guy who you consider a potential HOF talent just because you have some rule about positions, that's idiotic.

[MVP2110]

There's some people here who would defend passing on Adrian Peterson and Tony Gonzales because of a stubborn list of position rules they've created for themselves and it's baffling. If you wanna think that Bijan is just gonna be another Trent Richardson then that's your prerogative. I've personally maintained that I would almost never spend a 1st round pick on a Mike linebacker, but would I pass on a guy I view as a Ray Lewis, Luke Kuechly, or Patrick Willis caliber prospect just to take the 5th best tackle prospect? Of course not, that's **** idiotic.

If you could guarentee we are getting one of those players sure, pretending we are able to judge with such certainty that a player will be a HOFer seems very arrogant though.

[MVP2110]

Young is better, but I'd still probably take Richardson 1/1.

Let's forget RB discussion for a second and go back to TE,

what makes you think TE evaluation has changed so dramatically that good ones can't be found late or that the high bust rate of 1st round TEs won't continue

I don't consider positions in a vacuum. I look at individual prospects. Bust rate has absolutely nothing to do with how I view these guys.

So you think we've gone from basically completely failing to evaluate the TE position coming into the draft to the point where if the Packers don't draft a R1 TE that is a failure. Because that is quite a leap