Updated Playoff Scenerio Thread

[MickeyDavis]

UPDATED: SEE BELOW

Detroit -- It's late and I'm sure there are lots of playoff scenarios out there, but I thought I would throw out how the Packers can still win the division based on the remaining NFL schedule.

We know the Bears are 9-4 overall, 4-0 in the division and 7-3 in the conference.

We know the Packers are 8-5 overall, 3-2 in the division and 6-4 in the conference.

To win outright::

The Bears lose all three of their remaining games against Minnesota (away), New York Jets (home) and Green Bay (away), the Packers only have to beat either New England (away) or the New York Giants (home). The Packers would be 10-6 and the Bears would 9-7.
Also, the Bears could lose two of their games and the Packers could win all three. Then it would be Packers 11-5 and Bears 10-6.

Now, for the Packers to win a tiebreaker with the Bears, they have to at a minimum


As several readers have pointed out, the Packers don't have to beat the Giants to win a tiebreaker with the Bears. If they beat NE and the Bears, and the Bears lose to Minnesota and GB, the Packers would win a tiebreaker based on strength of victory.

Assuming they lose to New England, they would be 10-6 overall, 4-2 in the division and 8-4 in the conference.

In order for it to all work out in the Packers' favor, Chicago would have to:

Lose to the Vikings and lose to the Packers.
Assuming the Bears beat the Jets, they would be 10-6 overall, 4-2 in the division and 7-5 in the conference.

The Packers would win based on a better conference record.

Here's a given:

If the Bears beat the Vikings, the Packers can kiss the division title away on any tiebreaker. Even if the Bears lost to the Packers and both teams finished 10-6, the Bears would win it based on a better division record (5-1 to 4-2).

In other words, if the Bears beat the Vikings next Monday night, the Packers will know going into their Sunday night game against New England that at a minimum they'll have to sweep their final three games to have a shot at the title.

Here are the tiebreakers:

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

The Packers and Bears will have the same record among common opponents as long as they finish with the same record because they both went 1-1 against non-common opponents.

If I made a mistake, please feel free to point it out.

[Captain Erv]

WEEK 14

New York at Minnesota -- Go Vikings

WEEK 15

Green Bay at New England -- Go Packers
Detroit at Tampa Bay -- Go Lions
Chicago at Minnesota -- Go Vikings
NY Giants at Philadelphia -- Go Eagles

[DH34Phan]

UPDATED: SEE BELOW

Detroit -- It's late and I'm sure there are lots of playoff scenarios out there, but I thought I would throw out how the Packers can still win the division based on the remaining NFL schedule.

We know the Bears are 9-4 overall, 4-0 in the division and 7-3 in the conference.

We know the Packers are 8-5 overall, 3-2 in the division and 6-4 in the conference.

To win outright::

The Bears lose all three of their remaining games against Minnesota (away), New York Jets (home) and Green Bay (away), the Packers only have to beat either New England (away) or the New York Giants (home). The Packers would be 10-6 and the Bears would 9-7.
Also, the Bears could lose two of their games and the Packers could win all three. Then it would be Packers 11-5 and Bears 10-6.

Now, for the Packers to win a tiebreaker with the Bears, they have to at a minimum


As several readers have pointed out, the Packers don't have to beat the Giants to win a tiebreaker with the Bears. If they beat NE and the Bears, and the Bears lose to Minnesota and GB, the Packers would win a tiebreaker based on strength of victory.

Assuming they lose to New England, they would be 10-6 overall, 4-2 in the division and 8-4 in the conference.

In order for it to all work out in the Packers' favor, Chicago would have to:

Lose to the Vikings and lose to the Packers.
Assuming the Bears beat the Jets, they would be 10-6 overall, 4-2 in the division and 7-5 in the conference.

The Packers would win based on a better conference record.

Here's a given:

If the Bears beat the Vikings, the Packers can kiss the division title away on any tiebreaker. Even if the Bears lost to the Packers and both teams finished 10-6, the Bears would win it based on a better division record (5-1 to 4-2).

In other words, if the Bears beat the Vikings next Monday night, the Packers will know going into their Sunday night game against New England that at a minimum they'll have to sweep their final three games to have a shot at the title.

Here are the tiebreakers:

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

The Packers and Bears will have the same record among common opponents as long as they finish with the same record because they both went 1-1 against non-common opponents.

If I made a mistake, please feel free to point it out.

In other words, we're f'd.

[MickeyDavis]

Crap we have to root for the Queens 3 weeks in a row, starting tonight

[MetroDrugUnit]

Update: We're not making the playoffs

[Flames24Rulz]

Scoreboard watching hasn't gone our way all season long. I don't see why it would start now. We're really screwed unless Minnesota finds a way to beat the Bears next week. We also need to be pulling for the Eagles in a major way too.

[Flames24Rulz]

Quick update on the tiebreakers:

We'd lose a tiebreaker against TB
We'd lose a tiebreaker against TB and PHI
We'd win a tiebreaker against TB and NYG

I'm not sure about the Saints because they're basically a lock anyway, but I assume we'd lose the tiebreaker to them.

And of course we all know that Minnesota needs to beat the Bears. If they can find a way to pull that off, we'll be back in the position we were in before the Lions game. But again, that team looked horrible and defeated yesterday. I don't see how they're going to keep that game close.

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

Hopefully they at least play that game at TCF, otherwise I don't like the Queens' chances in a neutral stadium.

Edit: Just found this article. Sounds like if the Queens want a home game they'll get one. Either the Dome gets done in time or they could use TCF if they give them enough heads up.

TCF Bank Stadium needs to know today whether it’ll host NFL game

Posted by Mike Florio on December 14, 2010, 9:56 AM EST

Vikings fans have gotten a Ghost-of-Christmas-Future glimpse of what it would be like for the home team to play a home game in a place other than their home of 50 years. In six days, Vikings fans may get a chance to see what it would be like to once again play in a home without a dome.

The folks who run TCF Bank Stadium, the open-air facility in which the University of Minnesota plays its home games, need to know by the end of the day whether the venue needs to be unwinterized in time for a Winter Solstice Eve game to be televised nationally on ESPN. Per the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the powers-that-be need six days to get the place ready for some football.

“It’s not as easy as just throwing a switch or a valve and walking away,” University of Minnesota assistant athletic director Scott Ellison said. “You have to open up the water line and make sure there’s no leaks and make sure everything is running properly.”

Ellison pointed out that the stadium isn’t designed for late-December football. “It wasn’t built for those types of temperatures, so there are some other issues that we have to look at as far as making sure that if we do open a concession stand for a game, we don’t freeze a sprinkler pipe or freeze water lines once they are back in service,” Ellison said.

The biggest challenge? Removing all the snow from the same storm that collapsed the Metrodome.

There’s a chance that the Metrodome also will be ready. If the Vikings want to be sure that they’ll be playing in Minnesota on Monday night, it would be wise (but expensive) to commence aggressive efforts to prepare both places for the game.

[MickeyDavis]

I hope the dump dome gets fixed. Queens will be tougher indoors with a loud crowd. Play outside in the cold and most of their team will pack it in after the opening kickoff.

[WiscoKing13]

the only logical way I see the pack getting into the playoffs would be
Bears lose to MIN
Packers beat NYG

Bears lose to Pack

its rather simple

(assuming both teams lose to NE and NJ)

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

Sounds like the game will definitely be played in Minneapolis, just a matter of Dome or TCF.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5916964

Edit: Snow removal already under way at TCF, should know where the game will be by tonight apparently.

DarrenWolfson Darren Wolfson
The snow removal continuing right now at TCF Stadium. Thought we would have word by noon... should know by tonight where the game will be.

[Flames24Rulz]

the only logical way I see the pack getting into the playoffs would be
Bears lose to MIN
Packers beat NYG

Bears lose to Pack

its rather simple

(assuming both teams lose to NE and NJ)

Or we win our final two, PHI beats NY and NO beats TB.

Your scenario is easier, though.

[arizonabuck]

how do you figure we'd win a tiebreaker in a 3 way tie with the Giants and Tampa? Tampa has the lead over us in common opponents assuming they beat Detroit, Seattle, and lose to New Orleans.

[trwi7]

how do you figure we'd win a tiebreaker in a 3 way tie with the Giants and Tampa? Tampa has the lead over us in common opponents assuming they beat Detroit, Seattle, and lose to New Orleans.

It has to be common opponents between all three teams. Only common games between the three teams are Washington and Detroit and the common opponents tiebreaker only takes place if each team has four common opponents, which doesn't happen.

[rilamann]

It's amazing how much simpler this all would be if we had simply beat the Detroit freakin Lions.

[arizonabuck]

you're right about the tie-breaker scenarios. If Tampa, Giants, and us tie, it would come down to strength of victory. Based on likely finishes, we would easily win that. So if we lose to the Patriots, we need to win the last 2. Then, New Orleans needs to beat Tampa the last game assuming Tampa wins the previous 2 which they should. And the Eagles need to knock off the Giants this weekend assuming the Giants beat the Redskins their last game which would be likely. Bottom line, the 2 biggest games this weekend are the Bears vs Minnesota and the Eagles vs Giants. If Tampa lost to Detroit, that would be big also.

[Mags FTW]

Lucky day: Packers control their own destiny
By Tom Silverstein of the Journal Sentinel



Foxboro - Talk about the pressure being taken off.

Before the Packers even take the field today, they know they can make the playoffs as a wild card if they win their final two games at home against the New York Giants and Chicago Bears.

They have the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles to thank for being put in this position.

By virtue of Detroit's 23-20 overtime victory at Tampa Bay and Philadelphia's dramatic 38-31 come-from-behind victory over the New York Giants, the Packers are now in a much better position to make the playoffs. They still have to take care of some major business, but at least they control their own destiny.

Here's why:

* If the Packers win their final two games, the best the Giants (9-5) and Buccaneers (8-6) can do is finish 10-6.
* At best, the Giants and Buccaneers can finish is 8-4 in the conference. With victories in their final two games, the Packers would also finish 8-4.
* In order for there to be a three-way tie between the two teams, Tampa Bay would have to win at home against Seattle and on the road at New Orleans. The Saints could still be playing for the NFC South title, but chances are they will be out of it. The Giants would have to win at Washington on the final week.
* In a three-way tie, the first couple of tiebreakers are head-to-head sweep of one team over the other two, best conference record, best record in common games (minimum of four), best strength of victory.
* There is no head-to-head sweep and conference record would be 8-4. There are only three common games between the three teams so you'd go to strength of victory and the Packers would win that.
* If the wild card tiebreaker came down to just the Packers (10-6) vs. Giants (10-6), the Packers would win based on a head-to-head victory.
* If the wild card tiebreaker came down to just the Packers (10-6) vs. Buccaneers, there would be no head-to-head, the conference record would be tied at 8-4 and common games record would be tied at 2-3. This became possible only after the Buccaneers lost to the Lions. Had they won, they would have had a better common games record.
* Once again, the tiebreaker between the Packers and Buccaneers would go down to strength of victory and the Packers would win that.

If the Packers sweep their last three games, they're obviously in, but if they lose to the Patriots, they only need to win their final two to get a wild card. It would be the No. 6 seed, but they would be in.

There is a way the Packers could wind up being the No. 5 seed without beating the Patriots (assuming a Bears victory over Minnesota Monday night).

If the Packers win their final two and:

* Tampa Bay wins at home against Seattle, Atlanta beats New Orleans at home and Minnesota wins at Philadelphia next week;
* And the Giants win at Washington, the Buccaneers win at New Orleans and Dallas wins at the Eagles.

The Packers, Giants, Buccaneers and Eagles would be 10-6. The Eagles would win the NFC East over the Giants. The Saints would be out. because they would have lost an AFC South tiebreaker to the Buccaneers and the Packers would be matched with the Giants and Buccaneers again and would win the highest seed. The Giants would beat out the Buccaneers for the 6th seed.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/112158854.html

[LUKE23]

So, for the Packers, obviously have to win both to get in.

#6 seed happens if:

Packers win both, Saints win any of their remaining games, Bears beat Vikings

or

Packers lose to Giants, beat Bears, Bears lose all three remaining games

#5 seed happens if:

Packers win both, Saints lose both, Bears beat Vikings

#3 seed happens if:

Packers win both, Bears lose to Vikings, Eagles win one or both of last two

#2 seed happens if:

Packers win both, Bears lose to Vikings, Philly loses both of last two

Think I have that right.

[MickeyDavis]

If the Bears lose tonight and to the Jets I believe we can lose to the Giants and still get in with a win over the Bears. I think that's the only way we get in if we lose next week.

[Flames24Rulz]

If the Bears lose tonight and to the Jets I believe we can lose to the Giants and still get in with a win over the Bears. I think that's the only way we get in if we lose next week.

That's correct. The Bears-Jets game is at noon on Sunday while we're at 3:15.