Reviewing TT's Draft Performance

[eagle13]

Couldn't sleep so...

TT’s DRAFT RESULTS 2005-2010
This assumes Jolly Jones Jackson College Spitz Harrell Hall Poppinga are not back for 2011.
But it does include JohnsonQ WynnJ Underwood Swain LeeP who could get released this year.
So maybe Hall stays but Wynn goes. The numbers basically will hold up roughly +/- 2 which is good enough for this exercise IMHO.

BY YEAR
2005= 9 selected / 2 remain (rd drafted)
1 Pro Bowl = Collins(2)
1 Alt Pro Bowl = Rodgers(1)

2006= 12 selected / 2 remain
1 Pro Bowl = Jennings(2)
1 Alt Pro Bowl = Hawk(1)

2007= 11 selected / 2 remain
2 solid starters = Crosby(6), Bishop(6)

2008= 9 selected / 6 remain
1 Alt Pro Bowl = Sitton(4)
1 near Pro Bowl = Finley(3)
1 rotation= Nelson(2)
1 good bu = Flynn(7),
2 bu/ST = Lee(2), Swain(7)

2009= 8 selected / 7 remain
1 Pro Bowl = Matthews(1)
1 Alt Pro Bowl = Raji(1)
2 possible starters = Lang(4), Jones(7)
3 on bubble = Johnson(5), WynnJ(6), Underwood(6)

2010= 7 selected / 7 remain
1 solid starter = Bulaga(1)
3 potential starters= Neal(2), Burnett(3), Starks(6)
2 rotation= Wilson(7), Quarless(5)
1 sold bu= Newhouse(5)

SUMMARY
SELECTED – REMAINING - STATUS
56 selected - 26 remain
3 Pro Bowl = Collins, Matthews, Jennings
4 Alt Pro Bowl = Rodgers, Raji, Sitton, Hawk
1 near Pro Bowl = Finley
3 solid starters = Bishop, Bulaga, Crosby
5 possible starters = Neal, Burnett, Starks, Lang, BJones
3 rotation = Nelson, Wilson, Quarless
4 useful back ups = Flynn, Newhouse, Lee, Swain
3 bubble = Johnson, WynnJ, Underwood

TT BY ROUND

QUANTITY & QUALITY
Having a larger nbr of prospects stick is good but to what level they perform is as important if not more. You can miss 4 out of 5 and not hurt as bad if that one becomes a star performer. Like TT’s 3rd rd. Only 2 of 7 stuck but one is Finley.

Success is different for high mid & low rds. High rds need to pan out always. Of course they don’t. It’s much more painful when 1st rdrs bust than a 7th or even a 4th. Conversely to get even a small nbr of contributors out of low rds can be considered success.

EXPECTATION OF SUCCESS
1st 2nd 3rd = high
4th & 5th = mild
6th & 7th = low

Based on that general basis-

TT’s SUCCESS BY ROUND - Selected/Remain = 56/26

QUANTITY
Selected/Remain
1st = 6/5 = great
2nd = 9/5 = good
3rd = 7/2 = horrid
4th = 4/2 = OK
5th = 12/3 = bad
6th = 8/5 = very good
7th = 10/4 = OK

QUALITY
1st = 1 Pro Bowler & 3 Alt Pro Bowlers + 1 improving starter = Outstanding!!!
2nd = 2 Pro Bowlers & 1 starter & 1 rotation = very good to great!
3rd = 1 possible star & 1 probable starter = OK
4th = 1 Alt Pro Bowler & 1 probable starter = pretty good to very good
5th = 1 rotation & 1 good backup & 1 bubble = bad!!
6th = 3 good starters & 2 bubble = very good
7th = 1 possible starter & 1 rotation & 2 good backups = good

TT has proven to be effective in both early & late rounds. He excelled in the 1st & 2nd & 6th rds in both quantity & quality. The 3rd rd seems to be his challenge.


CRITICAL & ALL POSITIONS
While all positions are important, various positions are more crucial than others. Having success drafting a QB will do more for you than a S or TE. Here TT has really stood out. He’s nailed Pro Bowlers at QB and a 3-4 defense’s 2 most critical positions of NT & OLB. Plus at offense’s 2nd most critical – LT – he has two young prospects. Plus in a passing league TT has shown skill at snagging receivers at both WR & TE. Additionally he got Pro Bowlers or Alts at G, S, ILB & OLB. His challenge seemed to be at CB & DT. (EDIT per MD - TT more than made up for poor CB draft with FA = Wood. Will, Sam – also Pickett at DT – but FA is another story)

QB= 4/2 – 1 Alt Pro Bowl 1 good backup
RB= 2/1 – 1 possible starter
FB= 2/1 - 1 possible starter on bubble
WR= 6/3 – 1 Pro Bowl 1 rotation 1 bubble
TE= 3/2 – 1 near Pro Bowl 1 rotation
OT= 5/2 – 1 emerging starter & 1 possible starter
G= 7/2 – 1 Alt Pro Bowl 1 good backup
C= 0/0

DE= 5/3 - 1 possible starter 1 good backup 1 bubble
DT= 0/2 – 1 decent suspended
NT= 1/1 – 1 Alt Pro Bowl
ILB= 3/2 – 1 Alt Pro Bowl 1 emerging starter
OLB= 3/2 – 1 Pro Bowl 1 possible starter
S= 5/2 – 1 Pro Bowl 1 possible starter
CB= 4/2 – 1 backup 1 bubble
K= 1/1 – 1 solid
P= 0/0

BUST FACTOR
Busts in early rds hurt. And you can’t really call a rookie drafted in 5th or lower a bust as the odds are against them anyway. Of those no longer with the team - in the top 4 rds, four players had career ending injuries and 4 more were OK but just not good enough to justify being resigned for a higher salary. Basically in the top 4 rds TT had only 4 out right busts.

GONE BY ROUND – Selected/Gone = 56/30
1sts = 6/1 - Harrell-injury
2nds = 9/4 - Murphy-injury / College & Jackson=OK / Brohm=Bust
3rds = 7/5 - Underwood-injury / Jones & Spitz=OK / Hodge & Rouse = Busts
4ths = 4/2 - Thompson-injury / Barbre = Bust
5ths = 12/9 - Hawkins Costin Rodgers Martin Moll Clowney Meredith Giacomini Blackmon
6ths = 8/3 - Jolly Poppinga Hall
7ths = 10/6 - Whittaker Montgomery Culver Tollefson DWynn Harris,

OVERALL
On all levels of quantity of hits, quality performers, filling critical positions & minimal busts, TT has done exceptionally well. Overall TT deserves a drafting grade of BRILLIANT.

We all knew that already.
In TT we trust.
Good night...

[MickeyDavis]

Wow, that's quite some analysis. In football you have to build a team using all necessary means, draft, free agents and trades. TT has done a great job of combining all 3. Mostly the draft but also trades (Clay I consider both a trade and a draft) and free agents (Woodson, Williams, Shields). You can afford some busts when you get guys like Matthews and Rodgers with late first round picks.

[Newz]

Combining the draft with the undrafted free agents he has signed makes TT look like the best GM of the last 5-6 years.

He has done about as good of a job as you can do building a team.

[chuckleslove]

To call Finley a near pro bowl is deceitful. He certainly has pro bowl potential but he has never been close to being elected to one.

Overall your point gets through, just nit picking that one classification.

[ReasonablySober]

For this exercise I get it, but the Pro Bowl isn't something I'd put a lot of weight in.

[LUKE23]

Pro Bowl appearances is irrelevant, since a ton of it is popularity contest/reputation anyway, its a lot like the NBA all-star game. All I really care about is all-pro caliber players, and we have:

Rodgers
Jennings
Finley
Sitton
Matthews
Raji
Collins
Woodson
Williams

and hopefully Jenkins back.

[Newz]

There was an article last year where they talked to Ron Wolf about building a team and what you needed to win a Pro Bowl. He had you need something like six or seven 'blue chip' guys (star players basically). I cannot remember the exact number, but he had it worked out to a formula.

I agree with all of the guys Luke mentioned above. All of them besides Finley have had All-Pro type seasons and Finley is capable of doing so if he can stay on the field. Good to see we have 9 stars.

[emunney]

Here's the article I think Newz is referring to:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/114768204.html

Wolf said you needed about a third of your roster to be blue, red and gold-plus, where blues are HoF type players, reds are perennial pro bowlers and gold-pluses are starters who could possibly make the pro bowl.

[emunney]

Thinking about our roster and being a lot more speculative and extrapolatory than Wolf would be, I'm going to say our blues are:

Rodgers
Matthews
Finley
Woodson

Reds:

Collins
T. Williams
Jennings
Sitton
Clifton
Raji

Gold-pluses:

Bishop
Hawk
Shields
Driver
Grant
Pickett
Wells
(Jenkins)

With Jenkins, I'd put us at 18 total. My guess is Wolf would agree if you said that one of those guys must be the QB, but maybe not.

I also think we've got a handful of guys who could be considered gold-plus by the end of the year (as well as a couple guys who could fall out by then).

[Newz]

The way that he describes blues is not only a guy with hall of fame talent, but a guy who can do it for a long period of time.

"He (Rodgers) is as good as there is right now," Wolf said. "He's a cinch red moving toward blue. But longevity is a factor. He's kind of like Matthews. He's a solid red, a cinch Pro Bowl player. They're both reds ascending to the next level."

I'd probably keep Finley in the 'Red' based on his description until he proves that he can stay healthy and have a full (or at least close to full) season of elite production.