2012 Fantasy Football

Reddeye · Post #1 » by **Reddeye** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 4:01 pm

It's getting close to draft time again. Give your sleepers, busts, guys valued too high or low, etc. Post your teams once you have drafted. Include you league size and set up (Standard, PPR, etc)

Marley2Hendrix · Post #2 » by **Marley2Hendrix** » Fri Jul 20, 2012 3:44 pm

Surprised this hasn't gotten any buzz yet! I plan on diving into things this weekend and will definitely chime in at some point next week, but I always enjoy reading the thoughts of this board. Certainly seems to be a nice collection of savvy fantasy gents.

Discussion questions I have going into my fantasy research for the slow workday and weekend:

1 - cam newton (taken in the 16th round in my 2qb league by the eventual league winner) no doubt won a number of leagues based on picking him up alone. Now we have RGIII and the Mike Shanahan offense, so, how much of Cam's season was based entirely on Cam being unique from any other rookie qb, will RGIII come close at all to Cam's #'s in washington (still developing my feel for how he matches that offense and how the skill positions correspond as well), and when should he be taken. To a lesser extent, Andy Dalton was a fantastic grab for dynasty leagues (although it did seem as though that may have been the result of A.J. Green more than dalton being great), can we expect the same from luck, and, will it even matter as luck will likely be drafted early due to name recognition alone.

2 - My beloved Jordicai will no longer be around for me to take as my annual 12th round pick. As far as packer centric questions go, where do you all fall on him? His stats (points per route ran, ypc, yac, etc.) were amazing as were his fantasy numbers in spite of Jordy being like 30th+ in actual snaps. He seems a prime candidate for regression, but is he still a good value where he will be drafted (presumably 10th-15th wr off the board, although packer fan drafts will be much earlier).

Does Jermike get over the dropsies? Will we all be kicking ourselves for not drafting Alex green when James Starks inevitably stubs his toe and misses practice for the next 6 weeks (I kid, I love starks, but if he misses 3-4 weeks and Green gets the majority of carries, well, boner)

3 - From my relatively poor grasp of the fantasy world zeitgeist, it seems as though many have forgotten about schaub. Seems like he could be a very nice value pick. Similarly, in the PFF draft guide (5 bucks for the PDF, not as good as last years, but hey, 5 dollars) they had an interesting take that the 12th/13th qbs taken were generally better than qbs taken 6-11. Which QBs outside say the top 8-9 guys do you like?

4 - I'm rating Graham over Gronk, but how highly do you all value the top 6 TE's? The drop-off between that group and the rest of the field is staggering and puts you at a significant disadvantage if you miss out. Is it no longer a faux pa to grab one of these guys super early (gates was often a 3rd/4th rounder last year... Seeing Gronk in round 1/2 now...)

(fwiw, big advocate of the 2qb league)

Newz · Post #3 » by **Newz** » Fri Jul 20, 2012 3:48 pm

1. I wouldn't reach for RGIII. Cam is Cam, I wouldn't expect RGIII to be that good.

2. I still don't rank many of the Packer receivers very high. They spread the ball around so much that I could see any number of guys putting up a massive year... you just have to be lucky and get the right guy. (For instance I think Jennings, Nelson and Finley could all be amazing... but I also wouldn't be surprised to see Cobb step up and get 1,000 yards. Rodgers is going to throw to who is open.)

3. After the top 4-6 QBs they all just kind of blend together for me. I wouldn't mind starting Schaub though.

4. I usually take TE before most people do. I don't agree with Graham over Gronk though... but I think both of those guys are worth picks in mid-round 3 to mid-round 4.

Marley2Hendrix · Post #4 » by **Marley2Hendrix** » Fri Jul 20, 2012 4:42 pm

1. Personally not high on RGIII and Washington, but I really don't like Shanahan. Safest optimistic prediction for RGIII is a top 13-15 qb/

2. Ditto all the way. Cobbinance is worth a late pick as he may pull the slot job away from driver and thereby receive the most consistent targets of the bunch as a result of his position/routes run. Couple that with his YAC ability and small perk of possibly chipping in a return touchdown, and he absolutely seems like a great guy to take a flyer on.

4. Re: Graham over Gronk, I read a rather convincing piece about how Gronk's role will change with the addition of Brandon Lloyd in NE. He should still be good for 12ish TDs, but I'll still give the slight edge to Graham although I wouldn't question anyone who prefers Gronk.

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #5 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Fri Jul 20, 2012 4:50 pm

I haven't done any reading/research yet. Gotta get that started soon. Two players I'll be interested in seeing where they go are Peyton and Matt Flynn.

Reddeye · Post #6 » by **Reddeye** » Fri Jul 20, 2012 5:31 pm

Marley2Hendrix wrote:1. Personally not high on RGIII and Washington, but I really don't like Shanahan. Safest optimistic prediction for RGIII is a top 13-15 qb/

2. Ditto all the way. Cobbinance is worth a late pick as he may pull the slot job away from driver and thereby receive the most consistent targets of the bunch as a result of his position/routes run. Couple that with his YAC ability and small perk of possibly chipping in a return touchdown, and he absolutely seems like a great guy to take a flyer on.

4. Re: Graham over Gronk, I read a rather convincing piece about how Gronk's role will change with the addition of Brandon Lloyd in NE. He should still be good for 12ish TDs, but I'll still give the slight edge to Graham although I wouldn't question anyone who prefers Gronk.

Grossman put up some good games last year. RGIII should be good because his running ability. I am likely waiting on my QB1 and would like RGIII as my second QB.

I am in a PPR league and I choose Graham over Gronk. I don't think Gronk will match his TD total from last year and Graham is the number one option in NO. Looking at drafting Graham in round 2. He is just like an elite wr and there is a lot of depth at WR.

RiotPunch · Post #7 » by **RiotPunch** » Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:49 pm

I like Jake Locker, Malcom Floyd, Titus Young and Jonathan Baldwin as sleepers. Early in the process, but those guys could all be poised for big fantasy years.

RiotPunch · Post #8 » by **RiotPunch** » Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:51 pm

Also, Lestar Jean of the Texans out of Florida Atlantic has looked awesome in minicamps and stuff. He's the talk of the town. I loved him during the draft process last year and could be a real contributor this season.

MetroDrugUnit · Post #9 » by **MetroDrugUnit** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:16 pm

Trade Question. I'm in a 12 Team PPR League. I'm drafting in the 11 spot and my buddy is offering up his First round pick #5 overall and his 8th round pick for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. I offered him my 2nd rounder and 4th rounder for his 1st and 6th round picks. He countered with my 2nd and 3rd for his 1st and 6th. Any thoughts. I'm on the fence leaning towards passing.

My
14th and 35th Overall

For his
5th and 68th Overall

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #10 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:25 pm

For people in keeper leagues that allow trading of draft picks, what website do you use? My league has decided they don't want to pay for CBS any longer (I'm kind of a fan of CBS). So, as commissioner, I'm exploring alternative sites. At the moment I'm leaning toward Flea Flicker because it's extremely customizable and I have used it in the past. Any others that I should be considering?

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #11 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:28 pm

MetroDrugUnit wrote:Trade Question. I'm in a 12 Team PPR League. I'm drafting in the 11 spot and my buddy is offering up his First round pick #5 overall and his 8th round pick for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. I offered him my 2nd rounder and 4th rounder for his 1st and 6th round picks. He countered with my 2nd and 3rd for his 1st and 6th. Any thoughts. I'm on the fence leaning towards passing.

My
14th and 35th Overall

For his
5th and 68th Overall

I'd probably pass.

MetroDrugUnit · Post #12 » by **MetroDrugUnit** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:40 pm

PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:For people in keeper leagues that allow trading of draft picks, what website do you use? My league has decided they don't want to pay for CBS any longer (I'm kind of a fan of CBS). So, as commissioner, I'm exploring alternative sites. At the moment I'm leaning toward Flea Flicker because it's extremely customizable and I have used it in the past. Any others that I should be considering?

We have used ESPN last season and now this season after have a couple really bad experiences with Fox a couple of years back. I'm not the commisioner nor have we executed a Pre-Draft Trade on this site. The commisioner said that we were able to do so this year though. I had the #1 overall last year and offered it up but had no takers. I'm guessing that there will be no pre-draft moves but I'll let you know if I find out more.

Reddeye · Post #13 » by **Reddeye** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:58 pm

MetroDrugUnit wrote:Trade Question. I'm in a 12 Team PPR League. I'm drafting in the 11 spot and my buddy is offering up his First round pick #5 overall and his 8th round pick for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. I offered him my 2nd rounder and 4th rounder for his 1st and 6th round picks. He countered with my 2nd and 3rd for his 1st and 6th. Any thoughts. I'm on the fence leaning towards passing.

My
14th and 35th Overall

For his
5th and 68th Overall

I would pass. Too big a drop off in talent waiting until the 6th round.

Newz · Post #14 » by **Newz** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:59 pm

My drafts are coming up in about a month. I really need to start looking at this stuff.

Marley2Hendrix · Post #15 » by **Marley2Hendrix** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:03 pm

PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:For people in keeper leagues that allow trading of draft picks, what website do you use? My league has decided they don't want to pay for CBS any longer (I'm kind of a fan of CBS). So, as commissioner, I'm exploring alternative sites. At the moment I'm leaning toward Flea Flicker because it's extremely customizable and I have used it in the past. Any others that I should be considering?

I would pass on the trade unless you were 100% sure Godgers would fall to 5 (which I doubt, particularly if packer fans are in your league).

Re: FF Sites

YAHOO!!!!

I've used it since about 2003 and I love it. It does a great job of tracking your league history (I can go back to say the 2007 season and still look at the draft results, pickup moves, and standings for the league) and it is very easy to navigate and use for keepers and what not. On a purely aesthetic basis, I really like how it is formatted (ESPN's formatting always made me want to vomit. NFL.com has some really cool features if someone in your league has the time to mess with it, but I still prefer yahoo).

yahoo and nfl.com would both be decent options for you though. Both offer live scoring and I believe nfl.com actually updates player point projections as the games progress.

Reddeye · Post #16 » by **Reddeye** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:13 pm

http://www.kffl.com/draftanalyzer/

Here is a draft pick trade analyzer for anyone who is interested.

Reddeye · Post #17 » by **Reddeye** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:20 pm

Marley2Hendrix wrote:I would pass on the trade unless you were 100% sure Godgers would fall to 5 (which I doubt, particularly if packer fans are in your league).

I am not drafting a QB in the first two rounds unless Rodgers falls to early 2nd round (not happening) If you are in a standard league I would go RB/RB first two rounds and in PPR go RB and WR or TE.

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #18 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:44 pm

Marley2Hendrix wrote:
PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:For people in keeper leagues that allow trading of draft picks, what website do you use? My league has decided they don't want to pay for CBS any longer (I'm kind of a fan of CBS). So, as commissioner, I'm exploring alternative sites. At the moment I'm leaning toward Flea Flicker because it's extremely customizable and I have used it in the past. Any others that I should be considering?

I would pass on the trade unless you were 100% sure Godgers would fall to 5 (which I doubt, particularly if packer fans are in your league).

Re: FF Sites

YAHOO!!!!

I've used it since about 2003 and I love it. It does a great job of tracking your league history (I can go back to say the 2007 season and still look at the draft results, pickup moves, and standings for the league) and it is very easy to navigate and use for keepers and what not. On a purely aesthetic basis, I really like how it is formatted (ESPN's formatting always made me want to vomit. NFL.com has some really cool features if someone in your league has the time to mess with it, but I still prefer yahoo).

yahoo and nfl.com would both be decent options for you though. Both offer live scoring and I believe nfl.com actually updates player point projections as the games progress.

Do either of those sites allow you to edit draft order if there are pre-draft trades? We always plan fo r a live in-person draft, but sometimes we can't find a date where we can all get in the same room so then we have to do an online-draft. I know Flea Flicker allows you to manipulate the draft order to allow for trading of individual draft picks before the online draft.

Marley2Hendrix · Post #19 » by **Marley2Hendrix** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:12 pm

PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:
Marley2Hendrix wrote:
PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:For people in keeper leagues that allow trading of draft picks, what website do you use? My league has decided they don't want to pay for CBS any longer (I'm kind of a fan of CBS). So, as commissioner, I'm exploring alternative sites. At the moment I'm leaning toward Flea Flicker because it's extremely customizable and I have used it in the past. Any others that I should be considering?

I would pass on the trade unless you were 100% sure Godgers would fall to 5 (which I doubt, particularly if packer fans are in your league).

Re: FF Sites

YAHOO!!!!

I've used it since about 2003 and I love it. It does a great job of tracking your league history (I can go back to say the 2007 season and still look at the draft results, pickup moves, and standings for the league) and it is very easy to navigate and use for keepers and what not. On a purely aesthetic basis, I really like how it is formatted (ESPN's formatting always made me want to vomit. NFL.com has some really cool features if someone in your league has the time to mess with it, but I still prefer yahoo).

yahoo and nfl.com would both be decent options for you though. Both offer live scoring and I believe nfl.com actually updates player point projections as the games progress.

Do either of those sites allow you to edit draft order if there are pre-draft trades? We always plan fo r a live in-person draft, but sometimes we can't find a date where we can all get in the same room so then we have to do an online-draft. I know Flea Flicker allows you to manipulate the draft order to allow for trading of individual draft picks before the online draft.

I know yahoo does for sure. My keeper league allows trading players/keepers for draft picks so there is usually 20-30 revisions made to draft spots in our league and I have never had trouble doing it with yahoo. You can customize the entire draft order from the first pick to the very last if you would like.

Redeye - I don't know, man, that sounds a bit archaic to me (bit Biased as I primarily play 2qb leagues) but there is a drastic drop off between the top 6 qbs and qbs 7-12. If you miss out on the top 6, I have no problem rolling with the 13th, 14th, ... guys rather than 7-12, but in terms of points per week, it is costly to miss out on a top 6 qb. I don't see anywhere near as big of a difference with the RB's if you aren't talking about Ray Rice or Foster.

ETA - just one man's opinion, of course, and it definitely depends on how the draft board unfolds..

Reddeye · Post #20 » by **Reddeye** » Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:11 pm

Marley2Hendrix wrote:Redeye - I don't know, man, that sounds a bit archaic to me (bit Biased as I primarily play 2qb leagues) but there is a drastic drop off between the top 6 qbs and qbs 7-12. If you miss out on the top 6, I have no problem rolling with the 13th, 14th, ... guys rather than 7-12, but in terms of points per week, it is costly to miss out on a top 6 qb. I don't see anywhere near as big of a difference with the RB's if you aren't talking about Ray Rice or Foster.

ETA - just one man's opinion, of course, and it definitely depends on how the draft board unfolds..

I play PPR and I have went WR/WR in the first two rounds for probably the last 5 years. This is even a 6 points per passing TD league. In a two QB league absolutely take one of the top guys, but I think there is a lot of depth at QB. I think it will be hard to get a workhorse RB after round two this year. If you get two of them you should have a big advantage in a standard league. I also think there is a decent drop off after Graham and Gronk at TE. Barring injury those two seem like sure bets.

Agree with your last point. Even if you have known the people you have drafted with for a while it is still hard to predict how they might draft.