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Shouldn't we have a playoff thread to go through the scenarios and see who's left in the race, who are the teams, who's going for HMA, what are all the scenarios to get the Packers in, and who would there opponent be etc etc.

Rather than having it spread out all over the place it would be nice to know what are the records, what are the races going on, and how we think it will play out. This is the most fun time of the year, this is where every win/loss is magnified times 10. One play can get a team in our out of the playoffs.

Didn't we need this crazy play to help us get into the playoffs in 2010???

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9prEhmGafqM[/youtube]


ESPN has a decent summary of the current playoff standings:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type ... rder/false

1 Arizona 9 2
2 Green Bay 8 3
3 Philadelphia 8 3
4 New Orleans 4 6
5 Dallas 8 3
6 Detroit 7 4
7 Seattle 7 4
8 San Francisco 7 4
11 Atlanta 4 7


It looks like it's an 8 team race, not including Atlanta still alive with N.O. nor Carolina at 3-7 for that matter. Even if Atlanta or Carolina somehow overcame New Orleans, even at home both are probably floor mats for the wildcard team.

(tough game is loosely defined as going against a playoff caliber team, team with winning record, or team with some quality wins).

AZ has left: @ ATL, KC home, @ STL, SEA home, @ SF. 3 fairly tough games and the rams are no picnic.
PACK has left: NE at home, ATL at home, @ BUF, @TB, DET home. 2 tough home games, 1 maybe tough road game in Buffalo.
Philly: @ DAL, SEA home, DAL home, @ WAS, @ NYG. 3 tough games dallas twice and Seattle once.
N.O.: Bal home, @PIT, CAR home, @CHI, ATL home, @TB. Not sure what to classify as tough for this team. Maybe they drop 2 of these?
DAL: PHIL at home, @CHI, @PHIL, IND home, @WAS. 2 or 3 tough games.
DET: CHI home, TB at home, MIN home, @CHI, @GB. Guess we will be rooting for Chicago for 3 or 4 games the rest of the way. Detroit might not lose again until our matchup in Week 17. They could be easily 11-4 by then.
SEA: @SF, @PHIL, SF at home, @AZ, STL at home. Damn, by far the hardest schedule. No easy games here on out.
SF: SEA home, @OAK, @SEA, SD home, AZ home. 4 tough games ahead.


So who could help us the most the rest of the way? Oddly enough Chicago could be our BFF for the next month. They have 2 chances to give DET a loss and 1 chance to give Dallas a loss.

The rest is kinda murky as the NFC West everyone is going to be playing everyone the next few weeks. Maybe it's best they all beat each other up, so in case we drop a game or two, we can still get in via wildcard.

Of course we want to win the division and we are finally up a game in the driver's seat, but I'm worried about NE and Buffalo. On the road in Buffalo and maybe first game back for their stadium, and they can play tough D at times. We don't look the same on the road, I expect us to win, but I'm a little nervous that's the game we lose that we weren't supposed to lose.

I hope Detroit loses but they may be 11-4, and if we drop 2 we could be 10-5 the final game of the season. That would be nuts if they are 5-0 in the division and we are 4-1. Tie Breaker could get really confusing. In that case Sea, SF, all beating each other up could be good for us to have the WC in our back pocket.

Also Dallas and Philly are tied at this point, who do we want to win as they play each other twice? Their difficulty of schedule is about even.


As for the Pack's final record...I could see us being 13-3, or 12-4 (drop to NE), or 11-5 (drop to NE or Buf or DET). I think 11-5 can still get us in with Seattle and SF dropping at least 2 games each.

My ideal scenario would be:

1. GB
2. ARI
3. PHI
4. ATL
5. DET
6. DAL

Think that leaves DAL @ GB and DET @ ARI in the divisional round. I think Arizona beats Detroit and we beat Dallas, then we play Stanton in GB.

I don't think we see a playoffs without BOTH Seattle and SF, even though that would be nice. Key is home-field for us but I'd rather play Seattle in GB than SF, easy. I just think SF is our worst matchup due to their defensive personnel.

Really, we just need a top 2 seed and hope that Arizona is the #1 if we do get #2.

I'd rather take our chances with SF coming to Lambeau personally. Yeah, they've had our number in recent years, but I want no part of Lynch and that Wilson play-action offense against our defense outdoors in the playoffs.

Beating SF and going on to the SB would be such poetic justice as well. I'd much prefer we vanquish our demons that way. They're also not a great team this year.

SF has been a better road team than Seattle. I'm not that worried about our rush D with Clay at ILB either, assuming Perry is good to go. I believe we will have a harder time with SF's pass rush than Seattle's, given that SF is getting their guys back (Aldon is already back).

While my anxiety would be high, it'd be awesome if by some scenario we played and beat SF and SEA on our way to the Owl.

Would make it that much sweeter.

LUKE23 wrote:My ideal scenario would be:

1. GB
2. ARI
3. PHI
4. ATL
5. DET
6. DAL

Totally agree with this, but I have hard time seeing AZ hang onto the top spot in the NFC West, let a lone hold onto a first round bye

I think we root for PHI on Thanksgiving, but not sure who to root for between SEA/SF later that night.

Packers can so easily miss the playoffs. Thanks to the NFC South a 11-5 team will miss the playoffs.

A loss to the Pats and Lions and if the Hawks beat the 49ers and we miss the playoffs. That is if the Lions can win some games at the end of the season which they can never do.

If the NFL season was 8 games long the Lions might have have a super bowl win.

Dick Dastardly wrote:but not sure who to root for between SEA/SF later that night.

Tie

Dick Dastardly wrote:I think we root for PHI on Thanksgiving, but not sure who to root for between SEA/SF later that night.

Root for SF. We have a really tough game and we would be tied with Seattle if we lose and they would have the tiebreaker over us. I don't see Arizona winning more than 2 games the rest of the year with Stanton and that makes the West wide open.

It's also hilarious that a 2-9 team actually has a shot at the playoffs.

Really nice to see New Orleans lose last night. Would much rather play @ATL or @CAR than @NO.

I would like to avoid both of them obviously but if the Packers have to play one of Seattle or San Francisco I would want San Fran and it's really not even close IMO.

Like Swanson said I want no part of Lynch/Wilson in the playoffs,Lynch in cold weather could be a nightmare and Wilson is just the type of QB who gives the Packers fits,he's a smart accurate competitor who can make plays with his feet,no thanks.

Wilson isn't a top 5 QB but he might be in my top 5 as far as guy I would hate to face in a playoff situation.

Plus Seattle is still the defending champs and Rudy T tells us not underestimate their heart,not to sound cliche but Seattle is a team that can kind of flip that switch down the stretch and into the playoffs.

And the whole not throwing at Richard Sherman one time week 1 tells you all you need to know about the Packers' mentality going into a game with the Seahawks,once again no thanks.

San Fran still scares me but not as much as they have in the past and not nearly as much as Seattle.Kaepernick really isn't that good and it almost seems like he's due for a bad game against us.Not to mention the 49ers have been banged up on defense and have been pretty inconsistent all year,they've won some close games against some pretty bad teams,hell the Bears beat them in San Fran.I just don't think San Fran is all that great of a team this year.

Plus if the Cards choke and it ends up we have to go on the road I think we 'd have a shot in San Fran,if we have to go to Seattle game over.

11 wins won't miss the playoffs, but 10 wins very well could this year. I'm thinking one of Seattle and SF will miss at 10 wins.

Dick Dastardly wrote:Really nice to see New Orleans lose last night. Would much rather play @ATL or @CAR than @NO.

My main concern is winning the division more so than who makes the playoffs between Seattle and San Fran. I want no part at all of say being the wild card and having to go to New Orleans in the opening round. Yea they've lost some home games this year, but Brees in that dome could beat any team on a given night in the playoffs, even with their struggles.

Rooting for 49ers. Seattle has the tie breaker on us if it comes to that. Also think they are dangerous and can get hot in December January. They are built for playoff football.

SF is dangerous no doubt but dont forget we had a one legged mulamba chasing around kaeperdick in that game. With perry and peppers outside and clay in the middle I don't think kaeperdick repeats that performance. And still it came down to a last second fg and rodgers barely played in 2 months amongst other injuries.

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Would be ironic in the Alanis Morrissette sense of the word if Seattle got the wild card and had to go to New Orleans. Then Mark Ingram ices a win with a beast mode-like run from midfield. I think that might make Saints fans happier than a Super Bowl win, actually.

Wow. What an impressive win. Its possible we could actually win out and get HFA. I think we beat Tampa and Atlanta. The only games im iffy are buffalo. I expect to win but might be tough on the road. Also Detroit wont be a picnic. I think the cardinals drop 1 game and same with philly. We are awesome at home. I like our chances if the playoffs are going through GB

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Seattle is rising. Starting to look scary while the 9ers are failing. We need to win tomorrow to stay with AZ For first place.

Actually I want AZ to keep winning to win the west so seattle is the wildcard. I don't want them having any home games. I know AZ will drop 1 or 2 more games.

Not sure if the 9ers can take out seattle at home next week. Thats an important game.

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The one good thing about Seattle beating Philly if you have to take a positive out it is that the Packers could slip up and lose one of their next 3 and they'd still get the #2 seed.

Right now it is:

AZ
GB
Eagles
ATL
SEA
DET

If we lose tonight we go from 2nd to 6th.