RealGM

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 6:34 pm**

The lines on a few of these games are fluid, they've changed one or more times in recent days and will likely change again. It's too early for me to decide who I'm betting on. I usually first look at home dogs and go from there. A very high 8 home dogs this week. I rarely do totals so I didn't post those.

Pitt at New England -7
Green Bay -6.5 at Chicago
Kansas City at Houston -1
Cleveland at NY Jets -3
Indianapolis -2.5 at Buffalo
Miami -3.5 at Washington
Carolina -3.5 at Jacksonville
Seattle -3.5 at St. Louis
New Orleans at Arizona -3
Detroit at San Diego -3
Tennessee at Tampa Bay -3
Cincinnati -3.5 at Oakland
Baltimore at Denver -4
NY Giants at Dallas -5
Philly -2.5 at Atlanta
Minnesota -2.5 at San Francisco

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 6:36 pm**

Too many college games to post all of them but if there are any college games you like, let's hear it. So far I like Oregon.

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 6:56 pm**

I like: KC over Houston, Indy to cover, Carolina to cover, Seattle to cover, and of course GB.

Those would be the 5 I would take even though they are all away teams.

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 7:10 pm**

I've seen the Indy game at 3 but I like that one too.

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 7:12 pm**

That Seattle game looks like a sucker bet. I don't see any way St. Louis stays within a single digit margin at the end.

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 7:21 pm**

Any legit sites left? I haven't bet for awhile. I just got back from Vegas and I have the fever though, I love the sports books out there

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 8:39 pm**

bovada and sportsbook.ag are what I use. let me know if you sign up for one as we both can get a bonus

I've got $1500 on GB to cover at 6.5 - line has bounced a round a little but is up to 7 now.

If God said to you - "sir, at some point in the next 10 years, you need to make a bet. that bet is your life for $10 mil."

I would have parlayed bama-13 with the GB / CHI game -6.5.

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 8:44 pm**

Can you fund with CC on those? I liked the Packers too. It was still 6.5 when I left last night. I'd be all over it at that number. 7 is trickier

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 9:39 pm**

GB seems like easy money.

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 10:38 pm**

BUCKnation wrote:GB seems like easy money.

that's what worries me

Posted: **Mon Sep 7, 2015 11:37 pm**

MickeyDavis wrote:Can you fund with CC on those? I liked the Packers too. It was still 6.5 when I left last night. I'd be all over it at that number. 7 is trickier

Kind of. You need a VISA, but I think it can be debit or credit.

Bovada has like a 5% fee to deposit money as it's Canadian.

Sportsbook.ag is Australian, and the only fee was $8 from my bank on a $1500 deposit. Much prefer the layout here as well.

I would take GB -20. Not for 1500, but maybe 250.

Chicago's complete lack of talent on defense is really pretty amazing. Allen at OLB, a converted DE at MLB along with a 2nd rounder last year who should have gotten cut. Rc 5th round safety, garbage CB's. My guess is Rodgers doesn't even do much other then hand the ball off to Lacy.

And then add Cutler at QB and maybe no Alshon?

I really don't bet much anymore - I found myself getting drunk or bored and trying to find 4 team teasers to justify a $10 bet on. Much prefer the pick your game and drop your nut on it style.

No idea what the line is next week vs. SEA, but if it's less than a TD for GB I may just role whatever I win into that. After the way SEA has owned us over the last few years, there's no way they come to our house and cover any type of spread.

Posted: **Tue Sep 8, 2015 12:21 am**

I like GB, PHI, and NO for sure.

Posted: **Tue Sep 8, 2015 12:25 am**

You just never know in the first week. There is always at least 2-3 crazy upsets.

I am thinking ATL over Philly and NYG over Dallas could be two major upsets.

Posted: **Wed Sep 9, 2015 1:33 pm**

If anyone would like to participate in the RealGM picks against the thread competition, the link for week one is up. viewtopic.php?f=452&t=1406217#start_here

Posted: **Fri Sep 11, 2015 12:28 am**

Money is going on Chicago right now. Line down to 6

Posted: **Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:17 am**

MickeyDavis wrote:Money is going on Chicago right now. Line down to 6

Still 7 everywhere I see. I do like 6.5 much more than 7

Posted: **Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:46 pm**

Las Vegas sportsbooks took a bath on an opening Sunday of the NFL season that saw long lines at cashiers' windows after a slew of popular favorites covered the spread.

"I don't remember a worse opening Sunday," said Jay Kornegay, chief of the Westgate SuperBook and a 20-year veteran bookmaker.

The opening Sunday of the NFL season is almost always a boon for the books. Last year in Week 1, underdogs covered the spread in 10 of 13 games and produced what Kornegay called the best Sunday of his career. This year, opening Sunday was completely different.

Favorites went 9-4 against the spread Sunday and delivered a beating that had some shops just hoping to "avoid disaster of epic proportions" heading into the Sunday night game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.

The underdog Giants covered against the Cowboys in a 27-26 loss, helping the books, but the damage had already been done earlier in the day, when the most popular public favorites on the board -- the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins -- both covered.

At William Hill, 80 percent of the money wagered on the Green Bay-Chicago game was on the Packers, who covered as 6.5-point favorites in a 31-23 victory. The Bears are 2-12 straight-up and 3-11 against the Packers since acquiring quarterback Jay Cutler in 2009.

The Dolphins, who were 4-point favorites over Washington, attracted 77 percent of the money at William Hill and covered in a 17-10 win.

"There are definitely some long lines cashing tickets," Chuck Esposito of Station Casinos said late Sunday afternoon.

The St. Louis Rams were the most popular pick among the sophisticated players, multiple books said. CG Technology vice president of race and sports Jason Simbal said his shop took a six-figure bet on the Rams and a handful in the five-figure range. The Rams upset the Seattle Seahawks 34-31 in overtime.

"At our joint, the Rams winning was good for the parlays, but we had some pretty high, smart bets on the Rams," Simbal said. "We had 1.5 [times] more tickets on Seattle, but 2.5 times more money on the Rams. That was a game that was pretty much public vs. pro. And pro wins."

It was a rough start for the books, but they've been known to battle back and are expected to be open for business for the Monday night doubleheader. Nevada sportsbooks won an all-time high $113.7 million on football in 2014.

Posted: **Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:02 pm**

I like this line, the guy obviously doesn't know much about gambling:

"are expected to be open for business for the Monday night doubleheader."

yeah I'm sure there was some question about whether the sports books would open up for tonights games or just give up and shut down.

Posted: **Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:27 pm**

I'll start another thread for week 2 after tonights games but the Pack opened up as 3.5 favorites next week.

Posted: **Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:33 pm**

Regret not putting a 20 down on the Pack this weekend. Didn't find the time to set up an account with an online site.

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