The McCarthy Thread

[HKPackFan]

OK. Here we go.

Let's be realistic about how the Packers operate with their coaches.

This team doesn't fire coaches with more than 8 wins in a season.


Sherman went 4-12 and had a recent GM change then got canned.
Ray Rhodes went 8-8, was on a short leash, was not a popular signing when he had a losing record previously and there was basically no HC search done, missed the playoffs, and was out.

Neither got an NFL HC gig afterwards.

MM has a lot longer leash. He has a Superbowl ring and a bunch of division titles and a very impressive W/L record. He gets you to the playoffs every year.

I'm not sure 1 bad season would be enough to pull the trigger. TT loves MM as far as we know, so with such a close relationship I could see TT easily excusing MM for "1 bad season" of missing the playoffs.

Of course MM has a nice enough resume to let it slide and get another chance. Oh he's been so close to getting there with the OT losses, and he's got a street named after him and all that.

I kinda fear if they squeak by at 10-6 into the playoffs he gets another pass. I've never rooted against the Packers in my life (even during the dark days of the 80s), but it's almost as if, in order to truly justify a firing MM's team needs to flop and go 8-8 or worse.


OR DO THEY?
(I'm going to review coaches with outstanding W/L records and/or with Superbowl rings but who still got fired).

#1) Marty Schottenheimer was a very good Regular season coach: 200–126–1 (.613)
Mike McCarthy: Regular season: 107–57–1 (.652)

But Marty's post season made everyone fire him: Postseason: 6–13 (.316)
Mike's definitely better: Postseason: 8–7 (.533)

Marty's last gig he went 14-2 and still got canned. So can MM go to the playoffs this year and if bounced early still get the Marty treatment?


#2) Tom Coughlin: Regular season: 170–150 (.531)
Tom Coughlin: Postseason: 12–7 (.632)

After Tom's last superbowl he still had FOUR SEASONS in a row with no playoff trips before they finally let him go. I HOPE MM's leash is NOT THAT LONG! 4 years removed from his Superbowl.

#3) Mike Shannahan's last superbowl was 1998 with Denver then he still got them to the playoffs regularly, but the last visit was 2005. THEN THREE years no playoffs before he got fired. 10 years from his superbowl.
Regular season: 170–138 (.552)
Postseason: 8–6 (.571)

#4) Brian Billick got a superbowl with the ravens in 2000, then after some up and down years his last playoff trip was 13-3 2006, he was fired next year in 2007 after 5-11. 7 years removed from his Superbowl.
Regular season: 80–64 (.556)
Postseason: 5–3 (.625)

MM is currently in his 6th year removed from his superbowl. So he's in the part of his tenure where these other Superbowl coaches start to lose their SB luster. The difference with MM is he consistently gets them to the playoffs, (where Tom, Mike, Brian had playoff droughts), but that's why I brought up Marty.

I wonder if we get to that point where the Superbowl luster is gone and the frustration with poor post season performance is enough to justify letting MM go, even if he finishes the season with a winning record (which is very possible). Where Marty ball was famous for splashing out off the post season frustration just gets too much for people to handle and there doesn't seem to be anything Marty can do to get out of it.

I think MM is in that sweet spot of being far enough away from a Superbowl, plus frustrating post season losses, PLUS A NOTICEABLE REGRESSION on offense, which he's supposed to be the mastermind.

I was fully on the MM bandwagon until 2015 when the offense went to crap and I saw zero attempts to upgrade the scheme, I was on the side of the bandwagon hoping to jump back on with a good offseason to truly look deep and change things up seeing as Defenses have figured things out. Unfortunately I see ZERO change 5 weeks into the season, and now my world is in turmoil. I also see Rodgers regressing and don't have confidence MM is addressing it.

Do I root against my team in hopes it FORCES TT to move on from MM, or can I still root for my team knowing that an unsuccessful post season can still lead to a coaching change as it has for previous successful organizations. It's hard to tell with TT, but if there's enough pressure it's possible a post season exit gets MM canned. It feel it's a 50/50. I think NEXT year is a higher probability MM is on the hot seat and anything less than a SB is unacceptable, but I think that's taking 1 season too long to make a change, and also means another year of Rodgers getting older.

[HKPackFan]

The teams that FIRED their SB winning coaches, how did they do, post Superbowl coach Era?

Marty's team (not SB era) the Chargers moved on with Norv Turner who got them to the playoffs 3 times in a row, but then 3 straight seasons without a playoff trip and started over with McCoy. McCoy got them to the playoffs his first year, but 2 years no playoffs and this year doesn't look good.

The Giants have 4 seasons no playoff trips since they fired Tom, this year it's early but they don't look superbowl worthy yet.

The Denver Broncos had 2 controversial seasons with Mike Daniels with no playoffs. Then 4 straight playoff appearances with Jon Fox, who got fired at 12-4 (included 1 ugly superbowl loss the prior year). Then 1 Superbowl winning season with Kubiak. The Broncos knew the window with Petyon Manning was extremely short and were very aggressive in maximizing the opportunity in a short time span.

The Ravens brought in John Harbough who immediately got them to 5 straight strong playoff appearances with the 5th a Superbowl victory in 2012. Now they have missed the playoffs 2 out of 3 years.


So 2 teams dumped their SB coaches and brought in new coaches to get them to the promised land, 2 teams are still searching for answers.

[HKPackFan]

Thinks MM could get fired with an early playoff exit:

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/mike-mccarthy-green-bay-packers-hot-seat-fired-101716

The Green Bay Packers are 3-2 with losses to teams with a combined 10-1 record. They have a fairly easy schedule over their final 11 games, and though they probably won't catch the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, the playoffs are a good possibility, which should come as no surprise -- the Packers have made it seven straight years.

But despite that run, which of course includes a win in Super Bowl XLV and would be the envy of every other NFL team outside of New England, there's discord at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers has been an average quarterback for just about a year, getting thoroughly outplayed on Sunday by a fourth-round rookie leading a team with one playoff appearance in the last six years. The Packers haven't looked impressive in any of their three wins. Taking out that Super Bowl year, Green Bay is 3-6 in the playoffs during the Rodgers' era despite posting records of 15-1, 12-4 and 11-5 (twice). (The Packers were 10-6 in their championship season.) Overall, there seems to be a general feeling of malaise in Green Bay, like the team has stagnated and needs something -- a big move -- to reinvigorate the franchise. And since Rodgers isn't going anywhere, all eyes are likely to shift to Mike McCarthy this offseason.

And barring a turnaround that ends with a .750 winning percentage and/or an appearance in the NFC championship in January, it might be time for the Packers to see what life is like without their coach of 11 years.

It sounds ridiculous. McCarthy is one of the most successful coaches in the NFL. He missed the playoffs his first year, coached Brett Favre and the Packers to within one play of the Super Bowl in 2007, missed the playoffs in the first season of the post-Favre Aaron Rodgers era and hasn't been home in January since. After winning the Super Bowl, Green Bay won the NFC North four straight years before getting dethroned by Minnesota last year (in a race that came down to the final game of the NFL's regular season). The Packers have been the most consistent power in the NFC during the McCarthy era.

Does it feel like that, though?

Every year, it seems, the Packers are the most popular pick to win the conference. Every year they're remarkably steady in the regular season but usually without wowing anyone, taking a backseat to the Panthers in 2015 and the Seahawks and 49ers in the years before. And then, in the playoffs, Green Bay looks fine, maybe wins a game, but can't finish off the close ones and loses in a tight finish. (The last two years brought overtime defeats. The year before they lost by three.) They're most achieving underachievers in the league.

Maybe it's because he's in tiny Green Bay or maybe it's because Aaron Rodgers takes up all the oxygen, but McCarthy had always flown under the radar, both in good times and bad. (Has a Super Bowl-winning coach ever gotten less hype than him?) That's changed the last two years. He had a 2015 debacle with play-calling duties, when he gave them up, then took them back early in the season and vowed never to farm them out again. And, though much of it's probably due to the fact that he is a good head coach, McCarthy gets the brunt of criticism from the new-wave football minds who (correctly) deplore automatic punts on fourth downs (go for it!), safe two-point conversion strategy (go for it!) and bad clock management/timeout usage.

You could pick literally dozens of instances, but here are a few: In last year's playoff loss, McCarthy brought in the field-goal unit twice in the first half on fourth-and-1 plays. Still, the Pack got up 16-0 -- whereupon McCarthy's play calls were so conservative William F. Buckley would have felt uncomfortable. His stated goal after the loss was to hit 20 rushing plays in the second half. Getting first downs probably would have been better. (The coach had a short memory. His players convinced him to go for a fourth-and-1 from deep inside their own territory rather than punt in a 2013 game against the Bears. It worked and the Packers went on to win.)

On Sunday it was more of the same. Trailing 7-0, Green Bay had a fourth-and-1 from the Dallas 19. Field goal. Trailing 7-3, Green Bay had a fourth-and-(a short)-2 from the Dallas 25. Field goal. McCarthy did go for a fourth-and-5 from the Dallas 38 while down 10-6, which showed a little bit of moxie. The play call -- a deep pass to Randall Cobb by an inconsistent Rodgers -- didn't.

It's all this in totality that makes McCarthy one of the most intriguing figures on the always bustling NFL hot seat. Let's say the Packers finish 10-6, make the playoffs and lose before the conference championship. Is it really possible to fire a coach who's gotten you to the postseason eight straight years and brought Titletown U.S.A. its fourth Super Bowl win?

Yes, and it's the same reason the New York Giants got rid of Tom Coughlin, the Eagles cut ties with Andy Reid and Les Miles is out of work after 12 years at LSU. Sometimes a team, even a great one, needs a change of scenery. McCarthy isn't going anywhere during the year, of course -- Green Bay doesn't do midseason coaching changes (even Forrest Gregg and Lindy Infante survived 16 games in their final seasons). But unless something magical happens at Lambeau (or by the guys who play there) this January, it makes sense for the Packers to move on. McCarthy needn't worry -- he'd have job offers the instant the news broke.

The answer should be clear, but I suspect it won't be. Rodgers' prime is coming and going, and the team can't keep losing in the second round of the playoffs. It might seem beneath the oft self-important Packers to fire a coach who's done nothing wrong except recently fail to win the crapshoot of the NFL playoffs, but there's no nobility in sticking with a plan that's not meeting its goals. Sometimes change for the sake of change is the way to go.

[HKPackFan]

The article brings up Andy Reid....I didn't look at him because he hasn't won a superbowl, but lets take a look:

Andy Reid:
Regular season: 161–110–1 (.594)
Postseason: 11–11 (.500)

(MM better in both).

Andy got the Eagles to the playoffs 5 out of 6 of his first 6 years, 4 straight NFC championship games, with the 2004 a superbowl loss. The next 4 out of 6 years they made it to the post season. 2010 was their last visit to the post season, and after 2 years of no playoffs he was booted on a poor 2012 4-12 performance, 8 years after his superbowl appearance.


Andy had a pretty decent sized leash.

The Eagles had 1 playoff appearance with Chip Kelly and 3 straight non playoff appearances, and now start over with good Ole backup Dough Pederson.

[HKPackFan]

Based on everything I've looked after over the passed 1-2 hours on team's tendencies with successful coaches, and knowing TT and knowing the Packers are not the type to make a rash move, I could see MM limping this team to 6-5 the rest of the way and getting a 9-7 playoff weak showing or climbing to 10-6 and getting a wildcard birth/early exit and STILL have MM safe for the 2017, except next season he would FINALLY be on the hot seat.

Also considering MM is signed through the 2018 season, in 2017 he either needs a superbowl victory to earn an extension or he gets cut. I highly doubt the Packers decide to go into the 2018 with a lame duck coach on an expiring deal, that gives your team ZERO confidence in the coach and the program.

Also it makes an interesting situation in 2017 because TT's deal also expires in 2018. Does he step down and let Wolf Jr pick a HC?

So I don't see MM in the hotseat this year, it all comes down to 2017, with the postseason performance being the deciding factor.

Unless the Packers crumble this year and finish 5-11 or something, but I think there's enough bad teams on the schedule and the Packers are still decent enough to limp their way to 9-7 or 10-6, giving MM a mulligan.

[MickeyDavis]

IF we make a change I don't want any of those retread coaches.

[JimmyTheKid]

If we don't get to the Super Bowl this year McCarthy should be gone. I can't stand him but this isn't a plea to fire Mac because "he's a terrible coach," its simply a case of the relationship running its course. Give a new coach with a new set of ideas (and maybe a new offensive coordinator as well) a puncher's chance (5 years) with Aaron Rodgers behind center.

[rilamann]

If Marty Schottenheimer could get fired for not winning in the playoffs with guys like Elvis Grbac and Steven Bono at QB how the hell does Mike McCarthy not get fired for doing the same thing with Aaron Rodgers as his QB.

It's scary how much incompetence by the Packers front office Aaron Rodgers has covered up the past few seasons.

**** about to get real.

[HKPackFan]

IF we make a change I don't want any of those retread coaches.

Absolutely not. It was an exercise for me to see how long of a leash do superbowl winning coaches get before they finally get fired.

It seems it's fairly long but MM is getting close to that time where his job is no longer safe.

[rilamann]

It makes me want to bang my head against the wall reading and hearing (not just on here) things like people saying that if Mike McCarthy doesn't do this or the Packers don't do that he should be on the hot seat.

The guy should have been fired years ago.

[ak7]

IF we make a change I don't want any of those retread coaches.

I mean.. if they fire MM they surely are not going to bring in a coach that needs a season or two of grooming as Rodgers plays his way into his age 33 and 34 seasons.

Who could they bring in that would be better than MM, yet fit into the window that is currently there (some feel the window is gone - I am one of those individuals with the team as constructed) and isn't a retread?

[JimmyTheKid]

It makes me want to bang my head against the wall reading and hearing (not just on here) things like people saying that if Mike McCarthy doesn't do this or the Packers don't do that he should be on the hot seat.

The guy should have been fired years ago.

If the Packers didn't win a Super Bowl in 2010, I'd imagine he would have been axed a few years ago.

[rilamann]

I'll take the Super Bowl obviously but sometimes I wonder if winning that Super Bowl was actually a curse.

Like you said, if the Packers don't win it in 2010 McCarthy probably would have been fired a few years ago. If that happens maybe the Packers replace him with an actual NFL head coach and we win 2-3 with Rodgers. The Rodgers/McCarthy combo definitely isn't winning another one.

That said, if this was a game show and I could go home with the one Super Bowl with McCarthy or take my chances behind door #2 I would probably just take the one with McCarthy. Reason being,I don't trust that Thompson if he had fired McCarthy would replace McCarthy would anyone much better.

It wouldn't be hard to replace McCarthy with someone better,but at this point I don't trust Thompson. Thompson might have done the impossible and replaced him with someone who is actually worse.

Ted Thompson is a very overrated GM.

[FAH1223]

He won't be fired after this year regardless of result.

He's signed through 2018. I imagine he would be fired after 2017.