The McCarthy Thread
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:11 am
OK. Here we go.
Let's be realistic about how the Packers operate with their coaches.
This team doesn't fire coaches with more than 8 wins in a season.
Sherman went 4-12 and had a recent GM change then got canned.
Ray Rhodes went 8-8, was on a short leash, was not a popular signing when he had a losing record previously and there was basically no HC search done, missed the playoffs, and was out.
Neither got an NFL HC gig afterwards.
MM has a lot longer leash. He has a Superbowl ring and a bunch of division titles and a very impressive W/L record. He gets you to the playoffs every year.
I'm not sure 1 bad season would be enough to pull the trigger. TT loves MM as far as we know, so with such a close relationship I could see TT easily excusing MM for "1 bad season" of missing the playoffs.
Of course MM has a nice enough resume to let it slide and get another chance. Oh he's been so close to getting there with the OT losses, and he's got a street named after him and all that.
I kinda fear if they squeak by at 10-6 into the playoffs he gets another pass. I've never rooted against the Packers in my life (even during the dark days of the 80s), but it's almost as if, in order to truly justify a firing MM's team needs to flop and go 8-8 or worse.
OR DO THEY?
(I'm going to review coaches with outstanding W/L records and/or with Superbowl rings but who still got fired).
#1) Marty Schottenheimer was a very good Regular season coach: 200–126–1 (.613)
Mike McCarthy: Regular season: 107–57–1 (.652)
But Marty's post season made everyone fire him: Postseason: 6–13 (.316)
Mike's definitely better: Postseason: 8–7 (.533)
Marty's last gig he went 14-2 and still got canned. So can MM go to the playoffs this year and if bounced early still get the Marty treatment?
#2) Tom Coughlin: Regular season: 170–150 (.531)
Tom Coughlin: Postseason: 12–7 (.632)
After Tom's last superbowl he still had FOUR SEASONS in a row with no playoff trips before they finally let him go. I HOPE MM's leash is NOT THAT LONG! 4 years removed from his Superbowl.
#3) Mike Shannahan's last superbowl was 1998 with Denver then he still got them to the playoffs regularly, but the last visit was 2005. THEN THREE years no playoffs before he got fired. 10 years from his superbowl.
Regular season: 170–138 (.552)
Postseason: 8–6 (.571)
#4) Brian Billick got a superbowl with the ravens in 2000, then after some up and down years his last playoff trip was 13-3 2006, he was fired next year in 2007 after 5-11. 7 years removed from his Superbowl.
Regular season: 80–64 (.556)
Postseason: 5–3 (.625)
MM is currently in his 6th year removed from his superbowl. So he's in the part of his tenure where these other Superbowl coaches start to lose their SB luster. The difference with MM is he consistently gets them to the playoffs, (where Tom, Mike, Brian had playoff droughts), but that's why I brought up Marty.
I wonder if we get to that point where the Superbowl luster is gone and the frustration with poor post season performance is enough to justify letting MM go, even if he finishes the season with a winning record (which is very possible). Where Marty ball was famous for splashing out off the post season frustration just gets too much for people to handle and there doesn't seem to be anything Marty can do to get out of it.
I think MM is in that sweet spot of being far enough away from a Superbowl, plus frustrating post season losses, PLUS A NOTICEABLE REGRESSION on offense, which he's supposed to be the mastermind.
I was fully on the MM bandwagon until 2015 when the offense went to crap and I saw zero attempts to upgrade the scheme, I was on the side of the bandwagon hoping to jump back on with a good offseason to truly look deep and change things up seeing as Defenses have figured things out. Unfortunately I see ZERO change 5 weeks into the season, and now my world is in turmoil. I also see Rodgers regressing and don't have confidence MM is addressing it.
Do I root against my team in hopes it FORCES TT to move on from MM, or can I still root for my team knowing that an unsuccessful post season can still lead to a coaching change as it has for previous successful organizations. It's hard to tell with TT, but if there's enough pressure it's possible a post season exit gets MM canned. It feel it's a 50/50. I think NEXT year is a higher probability MM is on the hot seat and anything less than a SB is unacceptable, but I think that's taking 1 season too long to make a change, and also means another year of Rodgers getting older.
Let's be realistic about how the Packers operate with their coaches.
This team doesn't fire coaches with more than 8 wins in a season.
Sherman went 4-12 and had a recent GM change then got canned.
Ray Rhodes went 8-8, was on a short leash, was not a popular signing when he had a losing record previously and there was basically no HC search done, missed the playoffs, and was out.
Neither got an NFL HC gig afterwards.
MM has a lot longer leash. He has a Superbowl ring and a bunch of division titles and a very impressive W/L record. He gets you to the playoffs every year.
I'm not sure 1 bad season would be enough to pull the trigger. TT loves MM as far as we know, so with such a close relationship I could see TT easily excusing MM for "1 bad season" of missing the playoffs.
Of course MM has a nice enough resume to let it slide and get another chance. Oh he's been so close to getting there with the OT losses, and he's got a street named after him and all that.
I kinda fear if they squeak by at 10-6 into the playoffs he gets another pass. I've never rooted against the Packers in my life (even during the dark days of the 80s), but it's almost as if, in order to truly justify a firing MM's team needs to flop and go 8-8 or worse.
OR DO THEY?
(I'm going to review coaches with outstanding W/L records and/or with Superbowl rings but who still got fired).
#1) Marty Schottenheimer was a very good Regular season coach: 200–126–1 (.613)
Mike McCarthy: Regular season: 107–57–1 (.652)
But Marty's post season made everyone fire him: Postseason: 6–13 (.316)
Mike's definitely better: Postseason: 8–7 (.533)
Marty's last gig he went 14-2 and still got canned. So can MM go to the playoffs this year and if bounced early still get the Marty treatment?
#2) Tom Coughlin: Regular season: 170–150 (.531)
Tom Coughlin: Postseason: 12–7 (.632)
After Tom's last superbowl he still had FOUR SEASONS in a row with no playoff trips before they finally let him go. I HOPE MM's leash is NOT THAT LONG! 4 years removed from his Superbowl.
#3) Mike Shannahan's last superbowl was 1998 with Denver then he still got them to the playoffs regularly, but the last visit was 2005. THEN THREE years no playoffs before he got fired. 10 years from his superbowl.
Regular season: 170–138 (.552)
Postseason: 8–6 (.571)
#4) Brian Billick got a superbowl with the ravens in 2000, then after some up and down years his last playoff trip was 13-3 2006, he was fired next year in 2007 after 5-11. 7 years removed from his Superbowl.
Regular season: 80–64 (.556)
Postseason: 5–3 (.625)
MM is currently in his 6th year removed from his superbowl. So he's in the part of his tenure where these other Superbowl coaches start to lose their SB luster. The difference with MM is he consistently gets them to the playoffs, (where Tom, Mike, Brian had playoff droughts), but that's why I brought up Marty.
I wonder if we get to that point where the Superbowl luster is gone and the frustration with poor post season performance is enough to justify letting MM go, even if he finishes the season with a winning record (which is very possible). Where Marty ball was famous for splashing out off the post season frustration just gets too much for people to handle and there doesn't seem to be anything Marty can do to get out of it.
I think MM is in that sweet spot of being far enough away from a Superbowl, plus frustrating post season losses, PLUS A NOTICEABLE REGRESSION on offense, which he's supposed to be the mastermind.
I was fully on the MM bandwagon until 2015 when the offense went to crap and I saw zero attempts to upgrade the scheme, I was on the side of the bandwagon hoping to jump back on with a good offseason to truly look deep and change things up seeing as Defenses have figured things out. Unfortunately I see ZERO change 5 weeks into the season, and now my world is in turmoil. I also see Rodgers regressing and don't have confidence MM is addressing it.
Do I root against my team in hopes it FORCES TT to move on from MM, or can I still root for my team knowing that an unsuccessful post season can still lead to a coaching change as it has for previous successful organizations. It's hard to tell with TT, but if there's enough pressure it's possible a post season exit gets MM canned. It feel it's a 50/50. I think NEXT year is a higher probability MM is on the hot seat and anything less than a SB is unacceptable, but I think that's taking 1 season too long to make a change, and also means another year of Rodgers getting older.