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Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander

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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#221 » by El Duderino » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:28 pm

sdn40 wrote:
El Duderino wrote:
trwi7 wrote:
Why do we have to get near where we were to get back into the 3rd? We could go to pick 90 which would cost us our two 4ths value wise.

Personally I don't really see the need to move back into the 3rd with the first pick in the 4th but there are several ways we could do it if we wanted to.


Yea, what's the obsession with moving back into the 3rd round


Greed. I don't want 56 spots between picks. Flexibility. Prep for many guys on the last year of their deal. Quality over quantity


Well, the Packers over the last decade have gotten more quality players in the 4th round than out of their 3rd round picks. You are just wrongly assuming that one 3rd round pick will yield a better player than multiple shots in the 4th and 5th round.

Outside of Finley in the 3rd

Bakhtiari
Daniels
Lang
Sitton

Those four in the 4th are better than any other 3rd round pick the Packers used and Linsley came in the 5th.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#222 » by Profound23 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:36 pm

trwi7 wrote:
paulpressey25 wrote:
trwi7 wrote:This is literally like having your cake and eating it too. We not only got a guy that was in our 15-20 player tier but we also got a future 1st out of the deal and it only cost us a 3rd. That's insane value by Gutekunst.


I tend to think their moves last night were fantastic.

However so much comes back to whether or not there is a performance gap between Derwin James and Jaire. If there is a massive gap in favor of James over the next few years then it doesn't look so good.

Feel the same about last years situations. Packers could have taken Watt but traded our and took King. If Watt ends up being a far superior player, it backfires.

They have to be right on their scouting.


Ehh, the Watt thing is a lot different because we only picked up a 4th. It's not just the difference between James/Edmunds and Alexander either. What we do with the Saints pick next year needs to be factored in. If we get an all-pro with that pick but Alexander is only "good", then we still come out ahead unless James or Edmunds turns into a HOF talent or something.



Agreed!

It's a risk either way. Personally, I want more bites at the apple. Maybe James is better than Alexander, maybe Edmunds is, or maybe they all three end up being busts. Anyone who wanted a guy like Edmunds or Davenport has to realize (more than likely) that is basically the equivalent of a future first. I don't see either of those two making a huge impact this year at all because they both have a lot of developing to do. It could end up like the Bucks taking Giannis or like the Raptors taking Bruno Caboclo.

"Having our cake and eating it too" is the perfect analogy. We got an experienced productive player and a future first that more than likely ends up between 10-20. From the sounds of it, we were looking at Jaire at 14 anyways. So anyone whining about value or lack thereof makes no sense, because we could have just sat at 14 and that's that.

Now let's say a team gets tired of a star player (similar to Chiefs with Marcus Peters this year) we can get it on that because we have two firsts. Or if a team like Indy or Cleveland (having multiple seconds today) decide they want that first and offer two high seconds for that future first, we can do that too. We have so many options this way, or we could have hitched our wagon to one player. Yes, it sucks if Derwin James becomes the next Kam Chancellor but there is just as good of a chance for Jaire Alexander to become the next Darrell Green.

We caught a team that didn't have a 2nd round pick and really wanted to move up for a player with their pants down and we took full advantage.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#223 » by Profound23 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:37 pm

Look at the Saints draft history before this season:
2013-15
2014-20
2015-13
2016-12
2017-11

Last year, they caught lightening in a bottle. Atlanta had their Superbowl hangover and lost a lot of fluke close games, the Saints played out of their minds, and Tampa played the worst football they could possibly play. This pick can end up anywhere but using probability it ends up between 11 and 20.

Those were with Brees being healthy, imagine if Brees were to suffer a serious preseason injury and they had to roll with Taysom Hill or Tom Savage? In that division you are talking top 5 pick for sure, maybe #1. I am not counting on that (or wishing it), but you never know look at what happened to us.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#224 » by sdn40 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:39 pm

El Duderino wrote:
sdn40 wrote:
El Duderino wrote:
Yea, what's the obsession with moving back into the 3rd round


Greed. I don't want 56 spots between picks. Flexibility. Prep for many guys on the last year of their deal. Quality over quantity


Well, the Packers over the last decade have gotten more quality players in the 4th round than out of their 3rd round picks. You are just wrongly assuming that one 3rd round pick will yield a better player than multiple shots in the 4th and 5th round.

Outside of Finley in the 3rd

Bakhtiari
Daniels
Lang
Sitton

Those four in the 4th are better than any other 3rd round pick the Packers used and Linsley came in the 5th.


While that is true, it's not league wide - we simply have to do better in that round. Last year the 3rd round netted something like 15 starters and 3 Pro Bowlers. Don't quote me on that - I'm going from memory and too lazy to gather up the precise numbers. My guess is the 4th and 5th rounds fall off drastically from that.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#225 » by El Duderino » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:52 pm

sdn40 wrote:
El Duderino wrote:
sdn40 wrote:
Greed. I don't want 56 spots between picks. Flexibility. Prep for many guys on the last year of their deal. Quality over quantity


Well, the Packers over the last decade have gotten more quality players in the 4th round than out of their 3rd round picks. You are just wrongly assuming that one 3rd round pick will yield a better player than multiple shots in the 4th and 5th round.

Outside of Finley in the 3rd

Bakhtiari
Daniels
Lang
Sitton

Those four in the 4th are better than any other 3rd round pick the Packers used and Linsley came in the 5th.


While that is true, it's not league wide - we simply have to do better in that round. Last year the 3rd round netted something like 15 starters and 3 Pro Bowlers. Don't quote me on that - I'm going from memory and too lazy to gather up the precise numbers. My guess is the 4th and 5th rounds fall off drastically from that.


The thing is, there can be a big difference between say a high 3rd round pick, a bottom of the round third, top of the 4th, and bottom of the 4th.

Have a later 3rd and there often isn't much difference than an upper half 4th because by then, teams draft boards value players who are left quite a bit differently. Ten teams could have X player left as a 5th rounder, 10 teams a 4th rounder, and 10 a later 3rd.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#226 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:04 pm

What I find most interesting from that whole sequence of trades is that the Saints must have either had inside info or simply talked themselves into the notion that Davenport was going to be picked 14-17. It was no secret that Seattle was open to move 18 and as we saw the price to move from 27 to 18 was substantially less.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#227 » by RRyder823 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:05 pm

Here's a question with how the board shaped out post trade. Would you rather have Hughes and our 3rd or just Alexander?

Obviously they had Alexander rated higher but personally I would've preferred the former

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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#228 » by Finn » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:12 pm

Alexander. Not interested in Hughes' off-field issue.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#229 » by emunney » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:15 pm

Alexander for sure, but I'd take Jackson or Hurst or Landry and the 3rd.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#230 » by MikeIsGood » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:34 pm

Alexander, no contest.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#231 » by Balls2TheWalls » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:29 pm

Gute essentially proved that he has the best parts of Ted Thompson in his draft philosophy, without the worst parts. He proved that he has the patience to trade down, and to make decisions that aren't going to be popular with the fans in the moment. He also proved that he has the decision making to go and get his guy. It took 1 round for him to prove he wasn't Ted Thompson, but that maybe he is an evolved version of Ted Thompson. It would have been very easy for him to take a safe, popular, pick to ingratiate himself to the fan base. Instead he got his guy while getting us some elusive future draft capital.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#232 » by trwi7 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:03 pm

Holy ****, reading the stuff from Carriveau and Dougherty today. :lol:
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#233 » by LittleRooster » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:38 pm

trwi7 wrote:Holy ****, reading the stuff from Carriveau and Dougherty today. :lol:


What'd they say?
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#234 » by Xanadu » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:31 am

bizarro wrote:
HaroldinGMinor wrote:
Xanadu wrote:Don't how you can love much less like this pick. A injury prone...


Stop with the injury prone stuff. He broke his hand and sprained his knee. It's not like he's had chronic hamstring or back issues.


Yeah. It's silly. He played 1 season of shutdown rambling gambling CB and electric PR. Next season suffers a freak sprained knee and a freak broken hand.

Guess what: He plays football. Lots of players suffer injuries. He sure as hyellll looked healthy when he was tearing up the combine and pro day. There's plenty of tape and information to go off of.

I don't know call me skittish when picking players that have had injuries the year we draft them. I don't know why I am that way. Oh wait that's right because we do that a lot and it rarely pays off. Also broke hand not a chronic injury can i just say Nick Perry.
All griping aside I have come around on this pick. Having said that I don't know how any packers fan wouldn't worry about injuries lol. A lot of history of top picks always being hurt.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#235 » by bizarro » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:34 am

Xanadu wrote:
bizarro wrote:
HaroldinGMinor wrote:
Stop with the injury prone stuff. He broke his hand and sprained his knee. It's not like he's had chronic hamstring or back issues.


Yeah. It's silly. He played 1 season of shutdown rambling gambling CB and electric PR. Next season suffers a freak sprained knee and a freak broken hand.

Guess what: He plays football. Lots of players suffer injuries. He sure as hyellll looked healthy when he was tearing up the combine and pro day. There's plenty of tape and information to go off of.

I don't know call me skittish when picking players that have had injuries the year we draft them. I don't know why I am that way. Oh wait that's right because we do that a lot and it rarely pays off. Also broke hand not a chronic injury can i just say Nick Perry.
All griping aside I have come around on this pick. Having said that I don't know how any packers fan wouldn't worry about injuries lol. A lot of history of top picks always being hurt.


I get it. But a broken hand and a sprained knee just aren't that worrisome to me. Like, at all. It's not an achilles. It's not an acl or concussions. He played through the injuries. It's just a non-issue. NOW, on the other hand, he's smaller. He's built. BUT, he's smaller. So, the concern of: "He may be susceptible to getting injured due to returning punts and stature". That makes more sense to me.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#236 » by Ayt » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:36 am

RRyder823 wrote:
Ayt wrote:
RRyder823 wrote:A Future first is devalued when compared to picks in the current year. They just are.


Why? Next April, the pick will be worth exactly what it would be worth if it was the Packers pick rather than a pick acquired in a trade.

After sleeping on it I'm much better with how the draft went down but I'm still not happy about passing on James. Probably will never be. But here's to Brees arm falling off and Alexander being more Shields then Buckley

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The Buckley comparison doesn't make sense. Buckley wasn't just short, he was tiny. Shields was also light, entering the league at 184. Alexander weighs 196. That is right in line with all the other CBs on the roster. Kevin King is 5 inches taller and entered the league at 200.

Sure, he's an inch or so shorter than you'd like, but he definitely isn't small.


Because in a league where immediate results rule it's better to get that value now. It's not just the NFL. In any sport picks traded in future drafts inherently hold less value then picks in the current year when compared in a trade simply due to the fact that the value is kicked down the road.

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I'd like to see Gute take advantage of this broken logic every draft.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#237 » by RRyder823 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:43 am

Ayt wrote:
RRyder823 wrote:
Ayt wrote:
Why? Next April, the pick will be worth exactly what it would be worth if it was the Packers pick rather than a pick acquired in a trade.



The Buckley comparison doesn't make sense. Buckley wasn't just short, he was tiny. Shields was also light, entering the league at 184. Alexander weighs 196. That is right in line with all the other CBs on the roster. Kevin King is 5 inches taller and entered the league at 200.

Sure, he's an inch or so shorter than you'd like, but he definitely isn't small.


Because in a league where immediate results rule it's better to get that value now. It's not just the NFL. In any sport picks traded in future drafts inherently hold less value then picks in the current year when compared in a trade simply due to the fact that the value is kicked down the road.

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I'd like to see Gute take advantage of this broken logic every draft.

Just because you think its worthwhile to do doesn't make it broken logic. It's the exact same thing as saying if the Saints offered their 1st round pick in 2023 instead it doesn't hold the same value as the 2019 that they traded.

The broken logic is saying both those picks hold the same value when traded this year because "well it's still a 1st round pick"

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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#238 » by trwi7 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:58 am

LittleRooster wrote:
trwi7 wrote:Holy ****, reading the stuff from Carriveau and Dougherty today. :lol:


What'd they say?


Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


That Carriveau tweet isn't the one I saw but I can't find the other one. Maybe he deleted it or something.
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Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#239 » by DrWood » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:00 am

El Duderino wrote:
sdn40 wrote:
El Duderino wrote:
Yea, what's the obsession with moving back into the 3rd round


Greed. I don't want 56 spots between picks. Flexibility. Prep for many guys on the last year of their deal. Quality over quantity


Well, the Packers over the last decade have gotten more quality players in the 4th round than out of their 3rd round picks. You are just wrongly assuming that one 3rd round pick will yield a better player than multiple shots in the 4th and 5th round.

Outside of Finley in the 3rd

Bakhtiari
Daniels
Lang
Sitton

Those four in the 4th are better than any other 3rd round pick the Packers used and Linsley came in the 5th.

I don't think you are actually suggesting that the expectation of a 4th round pick is as high as a 3rd round pick, but even if you are, 8 of our 10 remaining picks are in the 5th-7th, and we'll be lucky to get 4 players out of that bunch that even have a useful career in the NFL, so it makes sense to use some of them to move up if we think we'll otherwise miss a player.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander 

Post#240 » by DrWood » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:04 am

Ayt wrote:
RRyder823 wrote:
Ayt wrote:
Why? Next April, the pick will be worth exactly what it would be worth if it was the Packers pick rather than a pick acquired in a trade.



The Buckley comparison doesn't make sense. Buckley wasn't just short, he was tiny. Shields was also light, entering the league at 184. Alexander weighs 196. That is right in line with all the other CBs on the roster. Kevin King is 5 inches taller and entered the league at 200.

Sure, he's an inch or so shorter than you'd like, but he definitely isn't small.


Because in a league where immediate results rule it's better to get that value now. It's not just the NFL. In any sport picks traded in future drafts inherently hold less value then picks in the current year when compared in a trade simply due to the fact that the value is kicked down the road.

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I'd like to see Gute take advantage of this broken logic every draft.


Great. I'd like you to give me $10,000, and I'll happily pay you back $10,000 in a year.

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