Packers 1st Round - Jaire Alexander

[trwi7]

Because in a league where immediate results rule it's better to get that value now. It's not just the NFL. In any sport picks traded in future drafts inherently hold less value then picks in the current year when compared in a trade simply due to the fact that the value is kicked down the road.

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I'd like to see Gute take advantage of this broken logic every draft.

Great. I'd like you to give me $10,000, and I'll happily pay you back $10,000 in a year.

Umm, a 3rd and a 1st don't have the same value. A better analogy would be I'd like you to give me $7,500 and I'll happily pay you back $10,000 next year.

[XtremeDunkz]

Because in a league where immediate results rule it's better to get that value now. It's not just the NFL. In any sport picks traded in future drafts inherently hold less value then picks in the current year when compared in a trade simply due to the fact that the value is kicked down the road.

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I'd like to see Gute take advantage of this broken logic every draft.

Great. I'd like you to give me $10,000, and I'll happily pay you back $10,000 in a year.

That logic makes no sense.....

We still had a 1st round pick this year....

We did not trade a 1st this year for a 1st next year...

Does that make sense?

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[DrWood]

Look at the Saints draft history before this season:
2013-15
2014-20
2015-13
2016-12
2017-11

Last year, they caught lightening in a bottle. Atlanta had their Superbowl hangover and lost a lot of fluke close games, the Saints played out of their minds, and Tampa played the worst football they could possibly play. This pick can end up anywhere but using probability it ends up between 11 and 20.

Those were with Brees being healthy, imagine if Brees were to suffer a serious preseason injury and they had to roll with Taysom Hill or Tom Savage? In that division you are talking top 5 pick for sure, maybe #1. I am not counting on that (or wishing it), but you never know look at what happened to us.

I live in LA. When Brees got his big contract, it hamstrung the saints and they exacerbated it with some other bad decisions. It took them a while to right the ship, but barring significant injury or decline, they should still be very good next year.

[dbrodz7]

There is no time value of money with draft picks, this is a stupid ass argument. You cannot take a first round pick this year and invest it for a return over the year and get a better first round pick. A first round pick is a first round pick. You're just waiting a year for the player, there is no difference in the value of the potential player in my opinion.

[DrWood]

I'd like to see Gute take advantage of this broken logic every draft.

Great. I'd like you to give me $10,000, and I'll happily pay you back $10,000 in a year.

That logic makes no sense.....

We still had a 1st round pick this year....

We did not trade a 1st this year for a 1st next year...

Does that make sense?

I think you know it doesn't. The "currency" is draft pick value, as determined by the chart. The value the Packers ascribed to the N.O. 2019 pick is about the same as a mid-2nd round pick THIS season. I think that's an overvalue (It should be 8 slots lower or so).
You don't have to agree with me, but to think the packers were "big winners" absolutely boggles the mind.
In the context for the packers (Aaron Rodgers continuing excellence is a limited quantity going forward), I think it is IDIOTIC to defer receiving value to the future. That's what you should do when you know you won't be good for a few years or more.

[DrWood]

There is no time value of money with draft picks, this is a stupid ass argument. You cannot take a first round pick this year and invest it for a return over the year and get a better first round pick. A first round pick is a first round pick. You're just waiting a year for the player, there is no difference in the value of the potential player in my opinion.

Your opinion would only be true if NFL picks are different than EVERY OTHER ITEM WHICH HAS VALUE.

[dbrodz7]

There is no time value of money with draft picks, this is a stupid ass argument. You cannot take a first round pick this year and invest it for a return over the year and get a better first round pick. A first round pick is a first round pick. You're just waiting a year for the player, there is no difference in the value of the potential player in my opinion.

Your opinion would only be true if NFL picks are different than EVERY OTHER ITEM WHICH HAS VALUE.

You can sell other items that have monetary value. You can't do anything with a draft pick to increase it's value other than wait till the draft and use it.

[DrWood]

I'd like to see Gute take advantage of this broken logic every draft.

Great. I'd like you to give me $10,000, and I'll happily pay you back $10,000 in a year.

Umm, a 3rd and a 1st don't have the same value. A better analogy would be I'd like you to give me $7,500 and I'll happily pay you back $10,000 next year.

Umm, you missed my point, which is that there is an opportunity cost for anything of value. Getting something now is more valuable than getting the same thing next year.

The Packers and the saints figured that a 2019 first round pick from N.O. was the same value as a mid-2nd-round pick in 2018. I think that is an overvalue, though I acknowledge we'll be sitting pretty sweet if Brees breaks a leg in preseason.

So, by their reckoning, it was a fair trade-- NOT that the Packers "won" the trade.

By my reckoning (that the value ascribed to the 2019 Saint's pick should be a 2nd round pick at the Saints current draft order), it was a bad trade.

But regardless of that, I think it's stupid to defer value now, when we will only have a limited number of Aaron Rodgers seasons.

[trwi7]

Getting something now is more valuable than getting the same thing next year.

I...I just can't. WE ARE NOT GETTING THE SAME THING. WE ARE GETTING A 1ST NEXT YEAR FOR A 3RD THIS YEAR.

[DrWood]

There is no time value of money with draft picks, this is a stupid ass argument. You cannot take a first round pick this year and invest it for a return over the year and get a better first round pick. A first round pick is a first round pick. You're just waiting a year for the player, there is no difference in the value of the potential player in my opinion.

Your opinion would only be true if NFL picks are different than EVERY OTHER ITEM WHICH HAS VALUE.

You can sell other items that have monetary value. You can't do anything with a draft pick to increase it's value other than wait till the draft and use it.

Shares of the packers can be sold, and the value of future picks wold be part of that value.
But that's not essential, because you can ascribe a value to the quality of the team, and desire it to be run in a way that maximizes its value.Furthermore, your view is proven false by the behavior in every sports league in the draft era--a pick now is of more value than a pick in some future year.

[DrWood]

Getting something now is more valuable than getting the same thing next year.

I...I just can't. WE ARE NOT GETTING THE SAME THING. WE ARE GETTING A 1ST NEXT YEAR FOR A 3RD THIS YEAR.

But you know that's not true. There is also the value of dropping 4 slots.

You're not only arguing with me, you're arguing with the Packers and the Saints, whose deal set the value of the saint's 2019 pick as a mid-second round 2018 pick.

[tski1972]

I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

[wichmae]

ESPN Analytics have the proper metric for pick values and adjusted values of future picks. YOure both kind of right. There is some diminished value in it being a future pick but that value aggregates positively every single day. Hard to justify its a full round anymore with how popular the specific move is becoming.

[BigDee]

Solid pick

[sdn40]

Forget I said anything about the Trade Value Chart. I made it up. It doesn't exist

[Triple 7]

Forget I said anything about the Trade Value Chart. I made it up. It doesn't exist

A+

[HaroldinGMinor]

ESPN Analytics have the proper metric for pick values and adjusted values of future picks. YOure both kind of right. There is some diminished value in it being a future pick but that value aggregates positively every single day. Hard to justify its a full round anymore with how popular the specific move is becoming.

Yes, future picks have less value than current year picks. Is that the correct way to measure value? Who knows. But that's how GMs treat future picks.

[HaroldinGMinor]

Getting something now is more valuable than getting the same thing next year.

I...I just can't. WE ARE NOT GETTING THE SAME THING. WE ARE GETTING A 1ST NEXT YEAR FOR A 3RD THIS YEAR.

But you know that's not true. There is also the value of dropping 4 slots.

You're not only arguing with me, you're arguing with the Packers and the Saints, whose deal set the value of the saint's 2019 pick as a mid-second round 2018 pick.

And per the value chart, the packers still come out way ahead.

[econniption]

I hope he plays well enough to stay with the Packers for a long time because he seems so likable. I think his attitude is gonna be great on the field and in DB room/locker room.

Watch on YouTube

[Balls2TheWalls]

If you want to fall in love with this kid, watch his 2016 film. It is ridiculous.

Highlights:

Watch on YouTube

Against Clemson in particular:

Watch on YouTube

Syracuse:

Watch on YouTube