Vikings Lead Up

[humanrefutation]

Pretty much a must win for a shot at the playoffs, IMO.

[MickeyDavis]

A big chunk of King's weekly column is about how he was allowed to embed himself with the Saints staff the night before the game. Some interesting stuff, especially how Payton came up with a new play. I can only imagine the difference between Saints game planning and MM.

Also in the column is an analysis of MM'S punt decision.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/11/19/new-orleans-saints-drew-brees-sean-payton-fmia-nfl-week-11-peter-king/

[neiLz]

A big chunk of King's weekly column is about how he was allowed to embed himself with the Saints staff the night before the game. Some interesting stuff, especially how Payton came up with a new play. I can only imagine the difference between Saints game planning and MM.

Also in the column is an analysis of MM'S punt decision.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/11/19/new-orleans-saints-drew-brees-sean-payton-fmia-nfl-week-11-peter-king/

MM gameplanning : "hopefully we cleaned up the mistakes from last week. lets get the pad level low and run the ball but make sure to not give it to aaron jones 20 times. we have to split up the touches."

[HaroldinGMinor]

McCarthy said his "analytics" told him to punt. This is either a lie or his analytics consist of him thinking about something for 3 - 4 seconds.

[crkone]

McCarthy said his "analytics" told him to punt. This is either a lie or his analytics consist of him thinking about something for 3 - 4 seconds.

Exclusive shot at his analytics clipboard.

[Ron Swanson]

McCarthy is the dumb jock who pretends to understand "analytics" in the media pressers but secretly despises any additional number-crunching outside of adding sales tax and tip on his Denny's order. Pretty much a must-win seeing as we have to win the division to get a playoff berth.

[Kerb Hohl]

McCarthy is the dumb jock who pretends to understand "analytics" in the media pressers but secretly despises any additional number-crunching outside of adding sales tax and tip on his Denny's order. Pretty much a must-win seeing as we have to win the division to get a playoff berth.

If we win over the Vikings, I don't think it would take a division title to get into the playoffs.

[Kerb Hohl]

I am not sure if I put this in the postgame thread, but I have been an anti-McCarthy guy for several years. There are some plays early in playoff games where we'd kick a FG when it was clear we'd need 40 to win (@Atl playoff game, etc) that I'd pull my hair out on.

Punting at the end on Thursday was the dumbest decision in his tenure and that is saying something. I went from, "whatever, I think he's an idiot but Godgers could still come back and at least sneak us into the playoffs to "I am probably not watching anymore this year."

That was mind-numbingly stupid. The Seahawks need 1-2 first downs to end it. Who cares which end of the field it is on.

[MickeyDavis]

Queens open as 3.5 point favorites

[trwi7]

I am not sure if I put this in the postgame thread, but I have been an anti-McCarthy guy for several years. There are some plays early in playoff games where we'd kick a FG when it was clear we'd need 40 to win (@Atl playoff game, etc) that I'd pull my hair out on.

Punting at the end on Thursday was the dumbest decision in his tenure and that is saying something. I went from, "whatever, I think he's an idiot but Godgers could still come back and at least sneak us into the playoffs to "I am probably not watching anymore this year."

That was mind-numbingly stupid. The Seahawks need 1-2 first downs to end it. Who cares which end of the field it is on.

Not only that but we were down Daniels and Clark. So our two best defensive linemen were out and McCarthy still thought it would be a good idea to put it on a bunch of backup defensive lineman to hold Seattle to 3 yards a carry for 3 plays.

[MickeyDavis]

From King's column

Much folderol about the Packers’ decision that may have cost them the game at Seattle on Thursday night. I want to focus on it here analytically, because coach Mike McCarthy said after the game, in making the decision he did, that “we played the numbers.”

The situation: Green Bay, down 27-24 with 4:20 to play in the fourth quarter, had a 4th-and-2 at its 33-yard line, with one timeout left. Key defenders Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels were out with injuries. McCarthy decided to punt.

McCarthy doubled down Friday, back in Green Bay. “Three-and-out there, I think, puts us right about the two-minute [warning],” he said. “I have great confidence in our two-minute offense, especially with Aaron … It’s a solid decision.”

I asked the analytics pros at Pro Football Focus on Friday to run their numbers for me, and for their opinion on the McCarthy call.

“It’s very difficult for me to conceive of a sound mathematical process that concludes punting was the right decision here,” said George Chahrouri, the director of research and development for PFF.

According to the PFF numbers:

• Green Bay’s chance of converting on 4th-and-2: 60 percent.
• Green Bay’s chance of winning after punting: 21 percent.
• Green Bay’s chance of winning after converting the fourth down: 38 percent.
• Green Bay’s chance of winning if they don’t convert the fourth down: 20 percent.

Translated, the PFF numbers say the Packers would convert fourth-and-two six out of 10 times, and the number say if they convert, they’d have nearly 4 in 10 chance to win the game. But a punt there, per PFF, gives Green Bay a 2 in 10 chance of winning.

Extrapolating further: If Green Bay punts, Seattle likely needs two first downs to run out the clock.

If the Packers go for it and make it, Aaron Rodgers needs to go about 60 yards in four minutes to score the go-ahead touchdown—or about 40 yards to try a field goal to tie. If they fail to make it, and they hold Seattle on its possession, a Sebastian Janikowski field goal (no sure thing) would give Seattle a 30-24 lead—and would give Rodgers the ball back, needing to go the length of the field in, say, two minutes for the win.

With a defense that allowed 77 and 75-yard drives on Seattle’s previous two possessions, and with a defense playing without two of its best players on the front seven, McCarthy—seriously—might want to examine how he calculates whether to go for it or punt in that case. It’s odd to put the burden on a faltering defense to stop Seattle, instead of putting the burden on Rodgers to make a manageable fourth-and-two. Neither “the numbers” nor common sense seems to back up McCarthy. However, this losing is not all McCarthy’s fault. In Seattle, Rodgers made some exquisite throws in the game, but his worm-burner incompletion on what should have been an easy third-and-two play forced the fourth-and-two decision. Mason Crosby missed his seventh kick in seven games, a 47-yarder wide left early in the game, that factored late.

McCarthy and staff have done a good job getting unknown young running backs and receivers up to speed this year. It’s not all bad, certainly. But the Packers just feel like a team going in the wrong direction. And with a quarterback as good as Rodgers, club president Mark Murphy and GM Brian Gutekunst have to decide whether a team that’s stumbled with and without Rodgers in the lineup needs a coaching change and a fresh voice in 2019.

[trwi7]

That last paragraph really bothers me. What exactly have McCarthy and the staff done to get the running backs and receivers ready? He's had Aaron Jones all year and Jones has been awesome his entire career yet it took a Montgomery boner and trade for basically nothing to give him more carries and he still doesn't carry the ball that much.

Moore is basically unplayable because of his drops. St. Brown doesn't really do much. Really the only case you can make is MVS but he has elite speed and was probably further along than anyone realized because his QB was so bad at USF.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Graham going to try to play with a broken thumb. I'm sure that will go swimmingly for a guy who's only use on the field is catching a ball.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

[Mags FTW]

A lot of the old guard of coaches were/are not the brightest.

Think about it. When the 2-point conversion was instituted, many of them had to carry around a flippin’ card that told them when they should go for 2.

[Ron Swanson]

You don't even need to throw any numbers or percentages in there to conclude that punting in that situation was a dumb as **** move. There's "analytics" and then there's common sense.

[BUCKnation]

A lot of the old guard of coaches were/are not the brightest.

Think about it. When the 2-point conversion was instituted, many of them had to carry around a flippin’ card that told them when they should go for 2.

I'm surprised we haven't come across a coach to go for 2 more often. Tomlin occasionally does it on his first TD, but if you could become an expert at converting a 2 yard play at the endzone, it'd pay massive dividends during the game and especially in cases like that 4th and 2. With the XP becoming harder, sooner or later it'll happen.

[trwi7]

You don't even need to throw any numbers or percentages in there to conclude that punting in that situation was a dumb as **** move. There's "analytics" and then there's common sense.

The only possible argument you could make is if you don't make it they're in FG range already and if you stop them and they make that then you need a TD instead of a FG. It's still not a good argument but at least it kind of makes sense. The argument McCarthy made was beyond stupid.

[Ron Swanson]

Kickers keep getting more accurate so I don't think that going for 2-points is that much more beneficial or "playing the odds" better, especially early in the game. Average league conversion rate has hung around 48% in the past couple years and hasn't gone above 50% since 2012. And the league average XP since the move-back to the 15 yard line has averaged around 96%. It's still pretty much a toss-up and depends on the situation.

[Mags FTW]

A lot of the old guard of coaches were/are not the brightest.

Think about it. When the 2-point conversion was instituted, many of them had to carry around a flippin’ card that told them when they should go for 2.

I'm surprised we haven't come across a coach to go for 2 more often. Tomlin occasionally does it on his first TD, but if you could become an expert at converting a 2 yard play at the endzone, it'd pay massive dividends during the game and especially in cases like that 4th and 2. With the XP becoming harder, sooner or later it'll happen.

A 2-point will never be that automatic for a team. Teams can’t even consistently convert 3rd/4th and short when they have the whole field to operate with, let alone the 12 yards they get for a conversion.

[HKPackFan]

From King's column

Much folderol about the Packers’ decision that may have cost them the game at Seattle on Thursday night. I want to focus on it here analytically, because coach Mike McCarthy said after the game, in making the decision he did, that “we played the numbers.”

The situation: Green Bay, down 27-24 with 4:20 to play in the fourth quarter, had a 4th-and-2 at its 33-yard line, with one timeout left. Key defenders Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels were out with injuries. McCarthy decided to punt.

McCarthy doubled down Friday, back in Green Bay. “Three-and-out there, I think, puts us right about the two-minute [warning],” he said. “I have great confidence in our two-minute offense, especially with Aaron … It’s a solid decision.”

I asked the analytics pros at Pro Football Focus on Friday to run their numbers for me, and for their opinion on the McCarthy call.

“It’s very difficult for me to conceive of a sound mathematical process that concludes punting was the right decision here,” said George Chahrouri, the director of research and development for PFF.

According to the PFF numbers:

• Green Bay’s chance of converting on 4th-and-2: 60 percent.
• Green Bay’s chance of winning after punting: 21 percent.
• Green Bay’s chance of winning after converting the fourth down: 38 percent.
• Green Bay’s chance of winning if they don’t convert the fourth down: 20 percent.

Translated, the PFF numbers say the Packers would convert fourth-and-two six out of 10 times, and the number say if they convert, they’d have nearly 4 in 10 chance to win the game. But a punt there, per PFF, gives Green Bay a 2 in 10 chance of winning.

Extrapolating further: If Green Bay punts, Seattle likely needs two first downs to run out the clock.

If the Packers go for it and make it, Aaron Rodgers needs to go about 60 yards in four minutes to score the go-ahead touchdown—or about 40 yards to try a field goal to tie. If they fail to make it, and they hold Seattle on its possession, a Sebastian Janikowski field goal (no sure thing) would give Seattle a 30-24 lead—and would give Rodgers the ball back, needing to go the length of the field in, say, two minutes for the win.

With a defense that allowed 77 and 75-yard drives on Seattle’s previous two possessions, and with a defense playing without two of its best players on the front seven, McCarthy—seriously—might want to examine how he calculates whether to go for it or punt in that case. It’s odd to put the burden on a faltering defense to stop Seattle, instead of putting the burden on Rodgers to make a manageable fourth-and-two. Neither “the numbers” nor common sense seems to back up McCarthy....

Or it could be MM wanted to take a TO to come up with a really bad play (like he always does out of a TO), and the guy holding the punt sign was stretching and MM just stood there with a brain fart and they punted.