GT: Seahawks at Packers - 5:40 - FOX

[HaroldinGMinor]

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Cowards!

[WeekapaugGroove]

All I know is I was in the moment I was happy Seattle was punting. Although the pack have been ok in those types of moments this year.

Had the Seahawks been down 6 then you have to punt there because not getting it and then a FG it's over. Being they were only down 5 changes that and being at the 36 it probably would have been tempting for the pack to get a little conservative and run 3 times knowing you have that FG if you don't get it.

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[coolhandluke121]

I don't think the decision to punt is worth analyzing to death. It's the clutch first downs and the drop by Seattle that made the difference.

I think the ruling on the field would have stood either way on the Graham catch. His head goes down on the yellow line, which was about a foot in front of where it should have been. His left elbow, when it touched the turf (at about the same time as his head), was about 6 inches behind his head. His right arm, with the ball in it, was about 6 inches behind his left arm. So that's about a foot, cancelling out the erroneous projection of the yellow line.

[Bernman]

All I know is I was in the moment I was happy Seattle was punting. Although the pack have been ok in those types of moments this year.

Had the Seahawks been down 6 then you have to punt there because not getting it and then a FG it's over. Being they were only down 5 changes that and being at the 36 it probably would have been tempting for the pack to get a little conservative and run 3 times knowing you have that FG if you don't get it.

As a general rule if the opposing team doesn't want you to do something then you should do it. But there is some phobia involved because of how frustrating it would have been if Seattle converted on an extra down and the Packers couldn't stop an 11 yard try.

Vis a vis the downside for Seattle if they didn't convert, it's worth noting that Seattle didn't score their 2-point attempt earlier in the game. It's a 50-50 added onto a 50-50, so really makes it a 25-75. Would have really hurt their chances to have needed both. What it would have more provided them is comfort they still would have had a chance. Not to mention they'd need to win in OT on the road in the playoffs. I recall back to the Packers losing at Arizona that the odds of that historically are very poor.

[Turk Nowitzki]

Graham got there. If we're going to play the bitch about refs there was a lot of holding on some of Wilsons scambles.

I said to my friends that Seattle must have the greatest pass blocking OL of all time to not get flagged for a single hold all game. It seems basically impossible given how much Wilson was running around back there.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Graham got there. If we're going to play the bitch about refs there was a lot of holding on some of Wilsons scambles.

I said to my friends that Seattle must have the greatest pass blocking OL of all time to not get flagged for a single hold all game. It seems basically impossible given how much Wilson was running around back there.

It was frustrating because the Packers were playing him right and not rushing their outside guys up the field in an attempt to contain Wilson but it's impossible if the T is allowed to grab the guy as Wilson breaks contain. Gary got held two plays in a row like this.

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[MAC1987]

Graham got there. If we're going to play the bitch about refs there was a lot of holding on some of Wilsons scambles.

I said to my friends that Seattle must have the greatest pass blocking OL of all time to not get flagged for a single hold all game. It seems basically impossible given how much Wilson was running around back there.

It was frustrating because the Packers were playing him right and not rushing their outside guys up the field in an attempt to contain Wilson but it's impossible if the T is allowed to grab the guy as Wilson breaks contain. Gary got held two plays in a row like this.

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I can't believe how big of a deal this 1st down is in the media. The issue I have is when they talk about it they don't have a good image and the yellow line is clearly wrong.

[WeekapaugGroove]

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21 will not enjoy watching this play on tape.

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[vegaspacker]

It is so good to have Davante healthy!

[LikeABosh]

Anyone advocating for punting lacked feel for what was happening.

And the Packers' offense was unstoppable in the 2nd half, right?

[th87]

Anyone advocating for punting lacked feel for what was happening.

And the Packers' offense was unstoppable in the 2nd half, right?

In the second half up to that point, the Seahawks gave up a TD drive, a drive that picked up 2 first downs and ate up clock, and exactly one 3 and out. And had already given up 28.

So out of 3 drives in the second half, only one produced the outcome they would need again. And they had an undermanned defense.

That is far worse odds than giving the ball to Wilson, who had shown he was unstoppable, only getting to 4th down because of a drop and a surprise blitz.

So yeah. Punting was a huge miscalculation of the moment.

[LikeABosh]

Anyone advocating for punting lacked feel for what was happening.

And the Packers' offense was unstoppable in the 2nd half, right?

In the second half up to that point, the Seahawks gave up a TD drive, a drive that picked up 2 first downs and ate up clock, and exactly one 3 and out. And had already given up 28.

So out of 3 drives in the second half, only one produced the outcome they would need again. And they had an undermanned defense.

That is far worse odds than giving the ball to Wilson, who had shown he was unstoppable, only getting to 4th down because of a drop and a surprise blitz.

So yeah. Punting was a huge miscalculation of the moment.

Seahawks' defense was clearly playing much better in the second half. You can't complain about others lacking a feel for what was happening and ignore that part.

It's insane that people think it's a huge mistake to punt on 4th and 11 on your own 36 with plenty of time left (given the timeouts).

Oh, and just so you know, 83rd percentile means 1 out of 6 punts is more cowardly than that punt. Considering a lot of punts are clearly the right decision (4th and 10 in the 1st quarter or something), the surrender index actually shows that not to be an egregious decision

[Mags FTW]

I look at it this way. If you think your defense is good enough to force a 3 and out, you might as well go for it anyway. If you don't get it, this defense you claim to trust should force a 3 and out and at it's shortest would be a 44 yard FG attempt. No gimme in the cold, but even if it's made, it's still a one score game. The only difference is you will need a two point to tie.

I was shocked and elated that they decided to punt. And you should usually do the opposite of what your opponent wants you to do.

[th87]

And on the Seahawks 3 TD drives, the Packers managed to force *even a third down* only 3-4 times (and all were 3rd and short, and a 4th and inches) out of 30 or so plays. Two of them were on the first TD drive with a far fresher defense. That is staggering efficiency if you're the Seahawks. The Packers defense ended up making *just one play* that then caused the decision to punt. It was insane to let that fluke play (relative to the rest of the plays) dictate the decision.

This was 2003 Mike Sherman with a 200 yard performance from Ahman Green type fear.

I suspect the Seattle boards are lighting Carroll up right now.

[th87]

And the Packers' offense was unstoppable in the 2nd half, right?

In the second half up to that point, the Seahawks gave up a TD drive, a drive that picked up 2 first downs and ate up clock, and exactly one 3 and out. And had already given up 28.

So out of 3 drives in the second half, only one produced the outcome they would need again. And they had an undermanned defense.

That is far worse odds than giving the ball to Wilson, who had shown he was unstoppable, only getting to 4th down because of a drop and a surprise blitz.

So yeah. Punting was a huge miscalculation of the moment.

Seahawks' defense was clearly playing much better in the second half. You can't complain about others lacking a feel for what was happening and ignore that part.

It's insane that people think it's a huge mistake to punt on 4th and 11 on your own 36 with plenty of time left (given the timeouts).

Oh, and just so you know, 83rd percentile means 1 out of 6 punts is more cowardly than that punt. Considering a lot of punts are clearly the right decision (4th and 10 in the 1st quarter or something), the surrender index actually shows that not to be an egregious decision

Again, up to that point, the Seahawks defense in the second half forced only one sufficient stop, that they would then have to replicate to get the ball back. Two first downs and it's over.

The offense was stopped exactly zero times up to that point, only getting to 3rd or 4th on ~13% of the plays, with the latest occurrence on a drop and a "fluky" sack relative to the remainder of the plays.

[HaroldinGMinor]

Wilson was 15/17 with a drop for 172 yards in the 2nd half (not to mention 48 yards rushing in five carries). Run with the hot hand and try to win the game with your best player.

[th87]

Anyone advocating for punting lacked feel for what was happening. The Packers defense was completely gassed and had no answer.

That third down sack was basically the only play they had made the whole quarter. First down they dropped an easy one, second was a positive gain, and third down, the sack. Was it really likely the exhausted Packers would make two plays in a row? I would highly doubt that. They hadn't the entire second half.

They chose to take it out of the hands of their best player and left it up to the defense who had serious difficulty containing Rodgers and Adams, who needed only 20 yards to win the game.

MM would be *destroyed* for this. This is much worse than not going for 2 after Rodgers hit two Hail Marys.

Happy for their miscalculation though.

It's a false dichotomy. Both choices would have been debatable. On 4th and 11, odds would have been against conversion, and if they didn't do it that would have nearly ended the game. But odds were against getting the ball back and then winning w/ the better field position and probably point differential yet less time. It's a trade-off.

They were 2 inches away from the scenario where they got the ball back. It wouldn't have been in better field position because a couple of Packers' 1st downs. But you can't expect that. Normally a defense gets a stop in that situation.

If the Packers wouldn't have gotten the favorable spot on Graham's catch they'd have been in a similar predicament. Punt and make them go the whole field w/ 1:38 and no TO's (I tend to be on the more aggressive side, but that's where I was leaning). Or try to get the 2 inches, they probably achieve, but knowing if they don't time isn't really a factor for Seattle anymore. The Packers' defense would have had to stop a unit that was out-playing them from getting 2-3 first downs. And Seattle would have had a lot more than 1 play per series to work with. Happy for the miscalculation on the spot though.

Would you be confident the Packers' completely exhausted defense would stop an 11 yard gain from a QB doing just that largely at will? One who'd be running in circles for as long as it took to either find a receiver against our struggling corners or outrunning our slower front 7?

The spot was correct.

[chuckleslove]

I think it was pretty close to a coin flip either way on the decision. If you look at the real time odds calculated after the Preston Smith sack the Packers were around 86% chance to win the game.

It's basically 1 play to get 11 yards vs can your defense stop them. Their defense damn near did but we got vintage Godgers on that third down pass to Davante, dropping a ball right over his shoulder with a defender right on him.

Chances are either way they were screwed and since they had all 3 timeouts it was hardly some egregious decision on an epic level like throwing the ball when you have goal to go in the Super Bowl.