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Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:48 pm
by FAH1223
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Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:15 pm
by coolhandluke121
If you assume the following odds of winning in the first round, taken from playoffstatus.com and rounded slightly to make convenient fractions so I don't have to use a calculator, then you can calculate the probability of each opponent for the Packers in round 2.

Win probability:
Bucs: 4/5
Cowboys: 7/10
Rams: 5/8

Results:
Rams: 140/400 (35%)
Eagles: 1/5 (20%)
49ers: 12/50 (24%)
Cardinals: 84/400 (21%)

I actually think those win probabilities might be a bit high. I don't think you typically end up with 4 or 5 losses if you're supposed to be able to beat other winning teams 70-80% of the time. I know homefield advantage is a factor, but unless it's a question of extreme elements that one team is not used to, which doesn't apply to any first-round games, there's room for debate there.

Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:18 pm
by MissKhriddleton
I could really use a Saturday game.

Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:35 pm
by LUKE23
Think Niners have a shot against Cowboys, Tampa will destroy Philly. Packers got the best possible schedule alignment with the 4/5 seed playing a Monday West Coast game.

Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:33 pm
by MickeyDavis
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Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:13 am
by Dennis Reynolds
MickeyDavis wrote:
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Hope to God this is nothing more than MLF not trying to hurt anyone's feelings cause if Jaire is healthy and in shape it shouldn't even be a question.

For as good as Stokes has been for a rookie, he's still just a rookie and he's gonna get targeted hard, especially in big moments. Cousins was throwing up some prayers when Stokes was guarding Jefferson and not only all of them were answered, Stokes couldn't even locate the ball on some of those throws which could lead to some costly penalties in the playoffs. Hopkins was also torching him in the limited snaps he played against us so I hope they keep Stokes as far away from opposing star receivers as possible. He also has stone hands and while it shouldn't, the reputation matters in this league so the refs are gonna respect him far less than Douglas and especially Jaire.

Again, I understand Stokes is just a rookie and while I might be coming off like a hater and I'm just saying our opponents certainly won't feel sorry for him and let him off the hook because he lacks experience.

Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:45 am
by TroyD92
Dennis Reynolds wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:
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Hope to God this is nothing more than MLF not trying to hurt anyone's feelings cause if Jaire is healthy and in shape it shouldn't even be a question.

For as good as Stokes has been for a rookie, he's still just a rookie and he's gonna get targeted hard, especially in big moments. Cousins was throwing up some prayers when Stokes was guarding Jefferson and not only all of them were answered, Stokes couldn't even locate the ball on some of those throws which could lead to some costly penalties in the playoffs. Hopkins was also torching him in the limited snaps he played against us so I hope they keep Stokes as far away from opposing star receivers as possible. He also has stone hands and while it shouldn't, the reputation matters in this league so the refs are gonna respect him far less than Douglas and especially Jaire.

Again, I understand Stokes is just a rookie and while I might be coming off like a hater and I'm just saying our opponents certainly won't feel sorry for him and let him off the hook because he lacks experience.


Think Stokes gets beat a lot less than Douglas does

Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:27 am
by Dennis Reynolds
TroyD92 wrote:
Dennis Reynolds wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:
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Hope to God this is nothing more than MLF not trying to hurt anyone's feelings cause if Jaire is healthy and in shape it shouldn't even be a question.

For as good as Stokes has been for a rookie, he's still just a rookie and he's gonna get targeted hard, especially in big moments. Cousins was throwing up some prayers when Stokes was guarding Jefferson and not only all of them were answered, Stokes couldn't even locate the ball on some of those throws which could lead to some costly penalties in the playoffs. Hopkins was also torching him in the limited snaps he played against us so I hope they keep Stokes as far away from opposing star receivers as possible. He also has stone hands and while it shouldn't, the reputation matters in this league so the refs are gonna respect him far less than Douglas and especially Jaire.

Again, I understand Stokes is just a rookie and while I might be coming off like a hater and I'm just saying our opponents certainly won't feel sorry for him and let him off the hook because he lacks experience.


Think Stokes gets beat a lot less than Douglas does


Still got a lot to learn so I can't say it doesn't happen but I really don't notice it much. The only egregious example I can think of was at Vikings when he could have easily gotten an interception but got lost and Thielen got the Vikings in the field goal range late in the game.

While I can't say I'm high on PFF judging by their mid to late season QB grades I came across here and on twitter, I also don't know what other stats to look for. :dontknow:

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Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:23 pm
by MickeyDavis
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Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:24 pm
by MickeyDavis
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Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:47 pm
by Ron Swanson
A front-4 of Gary/Preston/Kenny/Zadarius pinning their ears back on passing downs?

Image

Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:00 am
by LikeABosh
Ron Swanson wrote:A front-4 of Gary/Preston/Kenny/Zadarius pinning their ears back on passing downs?

Image


That lineup was pretty good even when Gary was a rookie

Re: Divisional Playoffs Leadup

Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:20 pm
by Matches Malone
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