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Did some more investigating after these tweets and it seems like people who would know believe that Rodgers is essentially playing on an expiring contract because of the nature of escalating roster bonuses that increasingly add crazy cap hits.

I'd be operating under the assumption that Rodgers was here for at least another season or three, but that's not apparently the case. It would explain why Love wasn't traded.

Looking at spotrac, it looks more like a 3 year deal.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

Edit: Or maybe not when looking at the details of the options. I have no idea what to make of that contract if they can't renegotiate some of it.

I don’t know anything about nfl contracts except they make no sense

I don't think Rodgers really gives AF what the Packers cap situation is when he leaves. Now, if you are saying that Gute structured it this way because he essentially knew Rodgers was only going to play one more year, that could definitely be the case. Although if that was definitive why not just sign a one-year deal and then re-evaluate and sign another one? Again - I'm no NFL contract expert and maybe that isn't possible.

As for Love, the 2022 draft was awful for QB and there is really zero point in trying to find an average veteran stopgap QB if Rodgers leaves, so not that surprising he was kept for now (if Gute/Packers believe Rodgers is only playing one more season). I still believe the draft is in play for a QB in 2023/2024 if an opportunity presents itself. I do expect them to pick up Love's 5th year option and have a definitive plan in place by 2024 season (either Love or someone they drafted 2023/2024). I just don't think the Packers are ever interested in the veteran stopgap route. They will draft and develop their guy for better or worse.

According to Spotrac while his cap number keeps growing his dead cap number does not due to his signing bonus amortization. The new TV deal kicks in for the 2023 season and the cap should go way up so his salary increases don't mean much. If he plays 2 more years (at least) we're fine. If he retires after this season it hurts.

Cap hit/dead cap in millions
2022: $28.533/$151.047
2023: $31.623/$99.778
2024: $40.701/$24.460
2025: $59.301/$16.320
2026: $53.451/$8.160

Ayt wrote:Looking at spotrac, it looks more like a 3 year deal.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

Edit: Or maybe not when looking at the details of the options. I have no idea what to make of that contract if they can't renegotiate some of it.

Yea, spotrac is why I assumed it was a three year deal, but apparently their take on the contract is wrong. The Packers cap guy goes into why, but Andrew Brandt has been saying that this is actually a one year deal for a while now.

Really changes how I'm looking at this season and the future of the team.

LUKE23 wrote:I don't think Rodgers really gives AF what the Packers cap situation is when he leaves. Now, if you are saying that Gute structured it this way because he essentially knew Rodgers was only going to play one more year, that could definitely be the case. Although if that was definitive why not just sign a one-year deal and then re-evaluate and sign another one? Again - I'm no NFL contract expert and maybe that isn't possible.

As for Love, the 2022 draft was awful for QB and there is really zero point in trying to find an average veteran stopgap QB if Rodgers leaves, so not that surprising he was kept for now (if Gute/Packers believe Rodgers is only playing one more season). I still believe the draft is in play for a QB in 2023/2024 if an opportunity presents itself. I do expect them to pick up Love's 5th year option and have a definitive plan in place by 2024 season (either Love or someone they drafted 2023/2024). I just don't think the Packers are ever interested in the veteran stopgap route. They will draft and develop their guy for better or worse.

It was to get Rodgers cap number this season down to $9 million.

MickeyDavis wrote:According to Spotrac while his cap number keeps growing his dead cap number does not due to his signing bonus amortization. The new TV deal kicks in for the 2023 season and the cap should go way up so his salary increases don't mean much. If he plays 2 more years (at least) we're fine. If he retires after this season it hurts.

Cap hit/dead cap in millions
2022: $28.533/$151.047
2023: $31.623/$99.778
2024: $40.701/$24.460
2025: $59.301/$16.320
2026: $53.451/$8.160

Yea, it's actually the opposite if the OP is correct (which it seems he is). The Packers just get more and more screwed the longer he's on the roster. That makes sense if Aaron wanted his money AND the ability to get out.

Ingalls dead cap in 2025 is way different that Spotrac, I have no idea which one is right but surprised the gap is so large.

ETA overthecap.com has different numbers as well. Their deadcap number in 2025 is $45 million.

ReasonablySober wrote:

LUKE23 wrote:I don't think Rodgers really gives AF what the Packers cap situation is when he leaves. Now, if you are saying that Gute structured it this way because he essentially knew Rodgers was only going to play one more year, that could definitely be the case. Although if that was definitive why not just sign a one-year deal and then re-evaluate and sign another one? Again - I'm no NFL contract expert and maybe that isn't possible.

As for Love, the 2022 draft was awful for QB and there is really zero point in trying to find an average veteran stopgap QB if Rodgers leaves, so not that surprising he was kept for now (if Gute/Packers believe Rodgers is only playing one more season). I still believe the draft is in play for a QB in 2023/2024 if an opportunity presents itself. I do expect them to pick up Love's 5th year option and have a definitive plan in place by 2024 season (either Love or someone they drafted 2023/2024). I just don't think the Packers are ever interested in the veteran stopgap route. They will draft and develop their guy for better or worse.

It was to get Rodgers cap number this season down to $9 million.

I'm seeing Rodgers cap number this season at $28.5, not just from Spotrac but others have reported that as well. Where do you see $9 million for this season? His 2022 cap number was $46.7 million before the redo in March.

I think what we can be sure about is that the contract is meant to make Rodgers retire as a Packer, not be released or traded to play for another team.

Just win the Super Bowl(s!), baby. If we win the SB(s) and Rodgers retires afterward, none of us will be sweating a one-year cap hit.

The void year thing has made these salary cap discussions an order of magnitude more complicated.

When I read that post from the Packers cap guy I thought the same thing - this is Rodgers last year.

And if you put it all together it makes a lot of sense:

The D is gonna be awesome, but we won't be able to keep it together next year. Gary / Savage / Amos all free agents will lose 2 of those 3 at least.

The only weak spot on offense is WR, and I don't actually think it's as bad as many think. And truth is we didn't miss a beat on offense when Davante missed games the last few years. Same problem w the offense though for next year - all 3 WR's are FA's along w Jenkins and Bahks contract explodes.

Rodgers himself has other things he's interested in besides football. I'm sure he's disappointed how the last few years have ended. One more shot with an awesome team at a Super Bowl before he hangs it up makes total sense.

Plus Love either HAS to play next year or we have to trade him given the contract structure.

zmanishere11 wrote:
The only weak spot on offense is WR, and I don't actually think it's as bad as many think. And truth is we didn't miss a beat on offense when Davante missed games the last few years.

I think the WR core is actually pretty talented with the guys we brought in. I think the difference is that they appear to be 'specialist' versus alpha WR.

And just listening to Rodgers interview, he is going to be throwing to Watkins, Lazard and Cobb as starters. I think Doubs and Watson are going to just be used in packages until the inevitable occurs, Cobb or Watkins goes down with an injury.

If Rodgers retires, I don't think you worry too much about bringing any of those FA WR back. Cobb will probably retire anyway, then maybe you just see if Lazard blows up, can a long term deal make sense. Watkins you don't want any long term money toward IMO, keep him year to year if you want.

Gary is the only guy they can't lose. Amos is great, but Savage was pretty subpar last year. Not sure there's going to be a major drop off on defense going forward tbh.

TroyD92 wrote:Gary is the only guy they can't lose. Amos is great, but Savage was pretty subpar last year. Not sure there's going to be a major drop off on defense going forward tbh.

Yeah need to re-up Gary and I'd also say Jenkins assuming he looks like himself back from injury.

There's definitely going to be some cap pain post Rodgers but that's fine and should only be for a year. Heck being bad for a season post Rodgers isn't the worst thing because they might need to draft a QB high.

As far as the when Rodgers is leaving. I have no f-ing idea. I've been wrong on every prediction on that for two years.

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TroyD92 wrote:I don’t know anything about nfl contracts except they make no sense

Its no shock to me that the League of Rules, has the most complicated contract and salary cap in sports.