GT: Penn State at Wisconsin - 10/26/24 - 6:30 PM CT - NBC/Peacock

[ReasonablySober]

PFF previews the game:

No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers (7:30 PM ET on NBC)
Storyline to know: Will Wisconsin catch Penn State looking ahead?
The Nittany Lions are currently the No. 3 team in the country, their highest ranking in seven years. Their toughest test of the entire season comes next week against fourth-ranked Ohio State in what’s easily the biggest game of the weekend.

Penn State first must take care of business on the road against Wisconsin, who’s won three in a row and is arguably a top-30 team in the country.

Matchup to watch when Wisconsin has the ball (Dalton): Wisconsin’s offensive line vs. Penn State’s pass rush
As is fitting for Wisconsin football, the Badgers offensive line has been their greatest asset this season. Their ability to protect sophomore quarterback Braedyn Locke has given the Badgers a chance to succeed, especially during their three-game winning streak.

Wisconsin currently ranks sixth in the nation in pass-blocking grade and has allowed the ninth-lowest pressure percentage. That’s not been the product of a soft schedule either, as the Badgers have faced three teams inside the current top 30 in pass rush grade — Alabama, Northwestern and Rutgers. Their offensive line has been charged with just two sacks during their three-game winning streak.

The Badgers’ excellent pass protection matters for two reasons in this game. The first is that Locke has been solid in a clean pocket, earning a 79.4 passing grade. Under pressure, though, he has crumbled. His 27.5 passing grade when pressured is the fourth-worst among 158 qualified quarterbacks. He’s committed five turnover-worthy plays without a big-time throw under pressure.

The second reason pass protection is so crucial is that Penn State possesses an elite pass rush unit, led by edge defender Abdul Carter and defensive tackle Zayne Durant. The Nittany Lions currently rank inside the top seven in the FBS in pass-rush grade, pressure percentage and pass-rush win rate.

Wisconsin already has enough trouble creating big plays through the air, but it'll find that task impossible if it can’t hold up against Penn State’s lethal pass rush.

Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Max): Can Wisconsin’s secondary take away Tyler Warren?
Tyler Warren has been easily the best tight end in the Power Four this season. He leads them all in receiving grade (91.6), receiving yards (513), yards per route run (3.38) and is tied for first in receiving touchdowns (four). As if that’s not enough, he also has a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown this season. Outside of Warren, Penn State’s receiving corps has been just above average, placing 41st in receiving grade by wide receivers (71.2).

Wisconsin’s secondary has been the clear strength of the defense, placing eighth among FBS teams in coverage grade (91.5). The Badgers are also 20th in coverage grade when tight ends are targeted, earning a 76.4 mark in that department. They haven’t allowed a tight end to even post 50 receiving yards in any game this season. It’s fair to say that Wisconsin hasn’t faced a tight end who’s the caliber of Warren though, so players like linebacker Jaheim Thomas and safety Hunter Wohler need to step up.

Predictions
Dalton: Penn State 24, Wisconsin 13

Wisconsin’s defense can keep the Badgers in this game, especially if Penn State gets off to another slow start. Penn State’s pass rush and offensive balance make the difference in a physical matchup.

Max: Penn State 33, Wisconsin 17

The Nittany Lions take care of business on the road and set up a colossal matchup against Ohio State next week.

[MickeyDavis]

Penn State could be looking ahead to Ohio State next week. They beat a good Illinois team but barely beat Bowling Green. This is definitely a winnable game.

[ReasonablySober]

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC)

Three weeks ago, Wisconsin was 2-2 and 66th in SP+. Now the Badgers are 5-2 and 20th, having beaten Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern by a combined 117-16. Quarterback Braedyn Locke took over for an injured Tyler Van Dyke and is actually making some downfield passes (and throwing some interceptions). Running back Tawee Walker, meanwhile, took over for Chez Mellusi and is averaging 139 yards per game at 6.3 per carry in this stretch, while the Badgers defense has treated three bad offenses like high school offenses, allowing just 0.4 points per possession and 4.1 yards per play.

Penn State has proven to be a mostly weakness-free team: In points per drive, they're 11th on offense and 12th on defense, and in success rate, they're sixth on both O and D. The Nittany Lions showed major resilience in coming back to win at USC two weeks ago, but they've also underachieved against SP+ projections for four of the last five games. This is clearly a good team, and quarterback Drew Allar has come a long way in a short amount of time. But now's the time to prove that they're "Big Ten Contender" good against maybe the conference's hottest team.

Current line: PSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 10.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 7.7

[Mags FTW]

DO IT

https://youtu.be/j4sLYNI2PLg?feature=shared

[coolhandluke121]

Penn State is not that good. Kinda feels like that methodical, overrated, not-at-all-dominant #1 OSU team that UW beat after Schabert replaced Sorgi, who was choked by that OSU linebacker (Reynolds?). It's like they can't be dropped until they actually lose a few, but everyone knows they're going to, and it could be tonight.

It's amazing how much better the OL has gotten in a few short weeks, although lol @ the analysis saying that Rutgers and Northwestern have good pass rushes. Against who exactly? UW's secondary is still the strength of the team, despite being hung out to dry by the impotent pass rush against USC.

[ReasonablySober]

With the rest of today's games going chalk the Badgers are gonna have a chance to own the weekend.

Hope it's a good one.

[trwi7]

Locke is drunk, so that's cool.

[trwi7]

Punters are the greatest athletes ever

[Matches Malone]

That was dope.

[trwi7]

Locke with a horrible start.

[BUCKnation]

Just had a 10 yd run so lets throw 3 times with an over amped locke

[TroyD92]

Like the juice they have. Locke needs to settle in.

[Turk Nowitzki]

If we had anyone above average at QB we'd be pretty good. The story of Wisconsin football I guess.

[StickeeFingaz]

Every time Locke releases the ball I figure it will be an incomplete pass.

[coolhandluke121]

Feel free to complain about Locke but I think we should just be glad he doesn't have a pick yet. Still has a chance to settle the eff down. Gotta get used to the pressure. Can count on a few opportunities for an Anthony bomb and a few interceptable balls every game - just hope the bomb comes first.

[coolhandluke121]

Better to be lucky than good.

[RiotPunch]

There's a break, gotta capitalize.

[TroyD92]

Pauling so bad

[StickeeFingaz]

Was his knee down when he caught the punt?

[BUCKnation]

This is a talented but extremely frustrating wr group.