First Round Busts - Greater risk at RB and WR than DT

[MickeyDavis]

An interesting read. Many of us really wanted a WR or RB with our pick. This is the link for WR, the rest of the links can be found at the top of this page.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... ers/070425

[ReasonablySober]

Another curious part is that many wanted a WR because they feel our offense will be so anemic this season.

The overwhelming history of the draft suggests that it will be years before any of the first round WR's drafted start to have an impact on their ball clubs (if they ever do).

[BuckPack]

Another curious part is that many wanted a WR because they feel our offense will be so anemic this season.

The overwhelming history of the draft suggests that it will be years before any of the first round WR's drafted start to have an impact on their ball clubs (if they ever do).

I think (and thought) that we have big time needs at WR down the road as well (when Driver starts to fall in particular). I don't think Meachem would come in here and fix them in season 1, but I do think that he would have provided something this season, with the chance to be spectacular in 2-3.

I truly believe that had Thompson known we would not get Moss, Meachem (or Bowe to a lesser extent) would be in a Packer uniform today. [/i]

[ReasonablySober]

Why take a WR in the 3rd round then?

[Mags FTW]

The overwhelming history of the draft suggests that it will be years before any of the first round WR's drafted start to have an impact on their ball clubs (if they ever do).

Yup. There's like 5 WRs that had 1000 yards in their rookie season since 1990. Moss, Glenn, Galloway, Boldin, and Michael Clayton.

[Ayt]

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Yup. There's like 5 WRs that had 1000 yards in their rookie season since 1990. Moss, Glenn, Galloway, Boldin, and Michael Clayton.

Jennings was on pace for 1164 before getting hurt. I would have liked to have seen if he could pull off 1000. I'd be surprised if he didn't get 1000+ this season.

[BuckPack]

Why take a WR in the 3rd round then?

Couple of reasons...

a) hedge your bet...you're not risking much by taking one in the 3rd. You can still acquire Moss since the 3rd round pick is more developmental anyway. If you use a first rounder on a WR, you wouldn't trade for Moss as well b/c the 1st rounder, regardless of needing time to develop, needs to see the field from day 1. (The 1st rounder--ala Meachem or Bowe in particular--do not need nearly as much grooming as Jones).

b) Create more trade leverage with Oakland. If they know you just drafted a WR in the 3rd, you can play the whole "we don't need Moss" and get him for a 5th a helluva lot easier if you didn't draft a WR at all on the first day.

c) Maybe, it became increasingly more apparent to Thompson, that the Pats were for real in their pursuit of Moss. He knows he couldn't let the first day pass without getting a WR, particularly if he didn't have Moss in the folds yet...I think he still suspected he would get Moss, but NE did acquire a 4th rounder from San Fran AFTER the Packers picked in the 1st round (that pick was later used to acquire Moss). Before then, TT knew he could stonewall the Raiders with a #5 b/c the Pats didn't have a #4. Once they got a #4 (when they traded out of the 1st round), maybe TT started to see the Pats as a distinct possibility.

d) As you have said, Moss was only a short term fix, and when Rodgers takes over the reigns in 1-2 years, neither of us really want Moss here. That sounds like perfect timing for a somewhat raw WR like Jones (or any 3rd round WR) to step into a more defined role in the offense (and one with more responsibilities). I'd rather have Jones at the #4/5 WR behind Moss, Jennings and Driver than Holiday or Martin...

[James1980]

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Yup. There's like 5 WRs that had 1000 yards in their rookie season since 1990. Moss, Glenn, Galloway, Boldin, and Michael Clayton.

You forgot about Colston, who had 1038 yards just last year.

[BuckPack]

Just saw this on Rob Demovsky chat on the packers' draft on packersnews.com....


Do you believe that ted thompson's belief that we would get moss caused the Packers to pass on a wide reciever such as Dwayne Bowe in the 1st round?

Rob Demovsky: That's very possible. I know this: As late as Sunday morning, Thompson still thought the Packers were in the running to land Moss.

He said the deal breaker was compensation to Oakland from what he's heard (Packer's not willing to go above a #5) which jives with what Clayton/Mort reported, and NOT that moss refused to negotiate here.

Ohh well, I'm over it. I just think he's the difference b/w 9-7 and 6-10. Liek I said in the other thread, at least this gives us a shot at DeShawn Jackson in the 08 draft, who I'd rather have long term anyway (or anyone one of those backs, depending on how Brandon and Morency and Wynn perform...)

[ReasonablySober]

You really believe that 30 year old WR that hasn't had a good season in 3 years is the difference in three whole wins? Even though we already had a Pro-Bowl WR last season and a young guy that was on pace for 1100 yards before going down with an injury?

[BuckPack]

You really believe that 30 year old WR that hasn't had a good season in 3 years is the difference in three whole wins? Even though we already had a Pro-Bowl WR last season and a young guy that was on pace for 1100 yards before going down with an injury?

ONLY b/c his skill set matches everything our offense needs. If he weren't a deep threat and a red zone terror (exactly what this team doesn't have on offense), then I'd say absolutely not. But I just view his strengths and his motivations (i.e. $$$$) creating somewhat of a "perfect storm." That's kinda what I wrote about in the other Moss thread, so I don't want to repeat myself. If this team had gone out and signed/traded for another veteran reciever (like a Daunte Stallworth or Darrell Jackson), I DEFINITELY don't think you'd see the wins jump. But here, he wouldn't get the double coverage that he faced in Minnesota and Oakland and that would create a lot of mismatches for he, driver and Jennings--all to their individual advantages. We'd have the ability to stretch the field (no more sitting on the intermediate routes) and we'd actually have somebody with an ability to make a play down the field! Even with Randy not being the Randy of old, he can still make plays in the red zone with the combination of his size, hands and body control. And, he can still make plays down field with his spee (4.29) and a QB who can put it there. So even if that's a few plays a game, that sounds like a wide open field for somebody like Driver to work....

Simply put, with the improvement in our defense next year, if we put some more TD's on the board (which is what Randy would provide), I think it's the difference b/w winning and losing games to New Orleans and Saint Louis last year....games where we got to the red zone and then failed to put points on the board. That's where you'd see Randy's impact (far more than a Stallworth or Jackson or even Driver) and IMO, that extra TD-whether it's by Moss, or the added attention he takes awsy from Driver in the REd Zone-- along with a stiffer D, would spur this team to around 9-7.

[MickeyDavis]

We do need a red zone threat, something Bubba used to be.

[Profound23]

Just saw this on Rob Demovsky chat on the packers' draft on packersnews.com....


Do you believe that ted thompson's belief that we would get moss caused the Packers to pass on a wide reciever such as Dwayne Bowe in the 1st round?

Rob Demovsky: That's very possible. I know this: As late as Sunday morning, Thompson still thought the Packers were in the running to land Moss.

He said the deal breaker was compensation to Oakland from what he's heard (Packer's not willing to go above a #5) which jives with what Clayton/Mort reported, and NOT that moss refused to negotiate here.

Ohh well, I'm over it. I just think he's the difference b/w 9-7 and 6-10. Liek I said in the other thread, at least this gives us a shot at DeShawn Jackson in the 08 draft, who I'd rather have long term anyway (or anyone one of those backs, depending on how Brandon and Morency and Wynn perform...)

Expect the tank to go from the Bucks to the Packers. And don't be surprised if the topic on hand is Darren McFadden.

[Profound23]

Steve Slaton is another one we will be targetting this time next year.

[ReasonablySober]

or James Davis.

[Balls2TheWalls]

The fact of the matter is there was not a talent level at the RB or WR positions to make that the pick at #16. Meachem and Bowe would have both been reaches without a trade-down. Obviously Thompson had Harrell rated a full tier higher than them, or else he would have traded down, picked up an extra pick, and taken Meachem.

I personally love the idea of building the defense into a powerhouse before worrying as much about the offense. If our offensive system turns out to be anything like Denver's, then we will have a simple running system to plug and move players around in.

[captain_cheapseats]

An interesting read. Many of us really wanted a WR or RB with our pick. This is the link for WR, the rest of the links can be found at the top of this page.

Nice link, thanks for posting it. I'd add that the case for DT over WR is probably even stronger than this suggests, since gem WRs are often found very late in the draft while good DTs almost never are.

[Ayt]

Its definitely interesting to look at the Pro Bowl rosters from last year at the DT position.

Casey Hampton -- 1st round, 19th overall
John Henderson -- 1st, 9th
Jamaal Williams -- 2nd, supplemental pick
Rich Seymour -- 1st, 6th
K. Williams -- 1st, 9th
Kris Jenkins -- 2nd, 44th
T. Harris -- 1st, 14th

That really is incredible. If you look at other positions it really isn't close to that.

[MikeIsGood]

Its definitely interesting to look at the Pro Bowl rosters from last year at the DT position.

Casey Hampton -- 1st round, 19th overall
John Henderson -- 1st, 9th
Jamaal Williams -- 2nd, supplemental pick
Rich Seymour -- 1st, 6th
K. Williams -- 1st, 9th
Kris Jenkins -- 2nd, 44th
T. Harris -- 1st, 14th

That really is incredible. If you look at other positions it really isn't close to that.

That is interesting. Loaded up at the top.

Something I noticed when looking at the ESPN link is that the number of busts coming from the first round at DT over the past 8 years or so has gone up dramatically compared to the bust percentage prior to that time. We're talking a massive % increase when comparing pre-1999 to post-1999 (17% to 53% - incredible).

Interesting when you compare it to the list Ayt has posted here of top draft picks at DT turning into pro-bowlers.

I'm really not worried on the bust-front with Harrell. I don't know if he'll turn into one of the league's elite DT, but I'm pretty confident he won't bust. He doesn't have the fat-and-lazy, no-motor, take-a-play-off characteristics that often come along with the DT's that bust.

[El Duderino]

I'm really not worried on the bust-front with Harrell. I don't know if he'll turn into one of the league's elite DT, but I'm pretty confident he won't bust. He doesn't have the fat-and-lazy, no-motor, take-a-play-off characteristics that often come along with the DT's that bust.

I'm inclined to agree.Worst case i see from Harrell if healthy is that he becomes just decent and doesn't really upgrade an area that wasn't particularily weak on the team anyways.