Crunch time
Beat writer Bob McGinn analyzes positional breakdown of the roster
Posted: Aug. 13, 2008Green Bay - The Green Bay Packers must remove 37 players from their roster before opening the regular season in 3 1/2 weeks against the Minnesota Vikings.
As contested as some of the battles for berths are, the more tantalizing question is whether general manager Ted Thompson goes outside to add players at such problematic positions as defensive tackle, tight end and quarterback.
On or a few days after the final roster reduction, Thompson has picked up seven players in his first three years. Five remain on the 80-man roster and two, tight end Donald Lee and running back Ryan Grant, are starters.
2005: Signed Lee as a free agent three days after he had been cut by Miami; acquired linebacker Robert Thomas from St. Louis for cornerback Chris Johnson.
2006: Claimed cornerback Jarrett Bush, safety Charlie Peprah and guard Tony Palmer on waivers.
2007: Traded a sixth-round draft choice to the New York Giants for Grant; claimed fullback John Kuhn on waivers.
“You’re always exploring different options and availability of different players,” Thompson said. “We’re always looking at every position because things happen in football.”
Befitting their status as a final-four team in ’07 with a record of 14-4, the Packers have several positions of relative strength. Those would include wide receiver, running back, defensive end, linebacker and cornerback.
Decisions to procure veteran help in some thin spots must be made by Thompson, who has stockpiled nine selections for the ’09 draft.
Green Bay’s roster remains one of the youngest in the league, the result of the National Football League-high 43 selections taken by Thompson in the last four drafts. Thirty-two of those 43 remain on the roster.
Using the final 53-man roster as a barometer, 22 of the 80 players are judged to be a lock to make the team, 17 are good bets, 25 are on the fence and 16 are long shots.
All teams must be down to 75 players on Aug. 26 and then to 53 on Aug. 30.
On Aug. 31, teams can sign up to eight players to the practice squad. Candidates are any free agents who do not have an accrued season of free-agency credit (six games on the 53-man roster or injured reserve) or who were on the 45-man roster for fewer than nine regular-season games during their only accrued season.
Players with more than two seasons on a practice squad are ineligible for another. A year of service on the practice squad includes a minimum of three weeks.
WIDE RECEIVERS (5)
Locks: Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones.
Good bets: Jordy Nelson, Ruvell Martin.
On the fence: Brett Swain.
Long shots: Johnny Quinn, Chris Francies, Taj Smith, Jake Allen.
Comment: Barring injury, this is the most cut-and-dried position. Jones solidified his status as the No. 3 receiver with a strong camp. Nelson hasn’t been as impressive as Jones was last year as a rookie, but he’s fine. And Martin, even at 26, keeps taking his game to another level.
Billed by the Packers as possibly the most skilled route runner in the draft, Swain has been a disappointment. A seventh-round draft choice, Swain seems timid. At other times, he can’t get open. On third and 10 against the Bengals, he was unable to run a slant against CB David Jones, and Brian Brohm had no chance to complete the pass.
Veteran Chris Francies was having a fairly solid camp before Monday night. Then he dropped two passes and failed to run under two deep balls which, if they were overthrown, it wasn’t by much. It’ll be hard for him to recover after a performance that bad.
The scrappy Quinn, a “street” free agent from North Texas, might be more deserving of practice-squad consideration. Smith has some value, too.
TIGHT ENDS (2 or 3)
Locks: Donald Lee.
Good bets: Jermichael Finley.
On the fence: Tory Humphrey, Joey Haynos.
Long shots: Evan Moore.
Comment: Finley, a third-round pick, isn’t in sync with the offense yet but makes it on the basis of pure potential. He’s not afraid to block but needs a ton of work doing it.
Given Finley’s developmental curve, the Packers might have to seek a veteran to serve as a temporary No. 2. The athletic Humphrey showed some toughness in the intra-squad scrimmage by blocking linebackers head-on, but he has major durability issues and hurt his chances with a blown assignment that led to Brohm’s interception Monday night.
Haynos, a rookie free agent from Maryland, has imposing size, is a decent blocker, catches the ball well and isn’t a slug down the seam. But he can’t make the team unless he gets more turns in practice. Either Haynos or Moore, who is attempting to make the conversion from wide receiver, should make the practice squad.
OFFENSIVE LINE (8, 9 or 10)
Locks: T Chad Clifton, T Mark Tauscher, G-C Jason Spitz, C Scott Wells.
Good bets: G Josh Sitton, G-T Daryn Colledge, G Allen Barbre.
On the fence: T Breno Giacomini, T-G Tony Moll, C-G Junius Coston.
Long shots: T Orrin Thompson, C Brennen Carvalho, G-T Ryan Considine, G Ryan Keenan.
Comment: Through the first two weeks of camp, Barbre (16 wins, one loss, three draws) and Sitton (14-2-2) fared better in the daily one-on-one pass blocking drill than anyone with an extensive number of repetitions. Along with Colledge (17-5-2), whose gains in strength and conditioning have helped his cause, the Packers are a solid seven deep.
After a slow start, Giacomini (19-10-7) has gotten his pad level down and thus has been much more effective. A fifth-round pick, he has worked exclusively at RT other than a few stints at LT this spring. He’s an aggressive player who might one day weigh a lot more than his current 310 pounds. It’s highly unlikely the Packers would cut him.
Green Bay has kept nine linemen at the start of seven of the last eight seasons. Moll (15-12-4) has been highly erratic in protection, but he does have 13 regular-season starts and played an effective 10 series at three positions (five at RT, two at RG and three at LT) against Cincinnati. Colledge, however, is entrenched as the backup LT.
Coston (4-4-5), the starting RG early last December, probably isn’t as good at center but has played strictly center this summer because of numbers. The Packers were patient with Coston for three seasons, but now it’s incumbent upon him to make a move and earn a roster berth. Carvalho (12-8-4), the No. 3 center, is a competent pass blocker but probably can’t beat his size disadvantage.
Thompson (7-7-1) got off to a good start before struggling last week and then hurting his foot. He has been around for three seasons but just can’t put it together.
RUNNING BACKS (5 or 6)
Locks: RB Ryan Grant, RB Brandon Jackson.
Good bets: FB Korey Hall.
On the fence: RB Vernand Morency, FB John Kuhn, RB Noah Herron, RB Kregg Lumpkin, RB DeShawn Wynn.
Long shots: FB Ryan Powdrell, FB Corey White.
Comment: Few teams carry two fullbacks but one reason the Packers did in ’07 was their inverted wishbone power formation. They’ll use it again in ’08 so two fullbacks should stick, although a tight end was used in that role a few times Monday night.
Hall and Kuhn still appear to be running 1-2. Powdrell, an old-fashioned banger, is comfortably ahead of White, a more skilled athlete who isn’t much of a blocker. Powdrell doesn’t get much time in practice.
There will be two or three difficult cuts coming at running back, where the pecking order seems to be the same as it was down the stretch in ’07. Morency rates a narrow edge for the No. 3 job based on his superb pass blocking and increased explosiveness.
Herron is a better receiver and perhaps a more reliable overall player than Morency, but Morency has more talent and speed.
Lumpkin stepped up aggressively on blitz pickups and ran hard Monday night. If he keeps playing like that, the Packers might not be able to hide him on the practice squad.
After a fine off-season, Wynn has enjoyed a solid camp. However, he’s always a nick away from being sidelined and hurt himself Monday night by taking the easy way out and diving low into the kickoff-return wedge (drawing a 15-yard penalty for an illegal block) instead of taking G Dan Santucci on.
DEFENSIVE LINE (10)
Locks: DE Aaron Kampman, DT Ryan Pickett, DE-DT Cullen Jenkins.
Good bets: DT Johnny Jolly, DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, DE Michael Montgomery.
On the fence: DE Jason Hunter, DT Colin Cole, DE Jeremy Thompson, DT Justin Harrell, DT Daniel Muir, DT Alfred Malone.
Long shots: DT Conrad Bolston.
Comment: This is the most unsettled position with Pickett, Gbaja-Biamila and Harrell injured and Jolly facing a possible suspension.
All six DEs on the roster are worth keeping. Jenkins (5-9-3 in one-on-one’s) has been ordinary, but his ability to swing inside makes him almost another DT.
“KGB” was having possibly his finest season before getting hurt in mid-November. He has been slow to return from arthroscopic knee surgery on May 28, but the Packers have their fingers crossed. They can’t replace his outside rush.
Montgomery (10-22-7) and Hunter (10-22-6) have elevated their games and also might figure inside on passing downs. Hunter is invaluable on special teams. Thompson (6-14-4), a fourth-round pick, isn’t ready yet but probably has too much potential just to cut.
The problem is inside, where the only good news is that Cole (5-6-1) has held up under a heavy workload and provides a veteran No. 3 behind Pickett and Jolly. Harrell (back) hasn’t played a down and it’s unclear if or when he will.
Muir (9-21-6) has been something of a disappointment but was much more stout at the point against the Bengals than in the scrimmage. Malone (9-18-7), who played 65 regular-season snaps for the Texans in 2005-’06, didn’t do much Monday night but isn’t bad at the point. Bolston (6-21-3), a former Viking, hasn’t shown much.
LINEBACKERS (6 or 7)
Locks: MLB Nick Barnett, WLB A.J. Hawk, SLB Brady Poppinga.
Good bets: SLB Brandon Chillar.
On the fence: MLB Desmond Bishop, MLB Abdul Hodge, WLB Tracy White.
Long shots: SLB-MLB Danny Lansanah, SLB Spencer Havner.
Comment: A trimmer Poppinga has been better than Chillar, who’s the No. 4 and projects in certain packages. The Packers kept seven in 2000, five in ’07 and six every year in-between. Seven might be worth keeping but the more realistic number looks like six.
Bishop and Hodge have staged a grand battle for the No. 2 post behind Barnett. With Bishop sitting out Monday night, a now-healthy Hodge showed for the first time in a game why the Packers drafted him in the third round.
Bishop plays faster and probably covers better than Hodge, but Hodge might be better against the run. It would take guts to release either player.
As if anyone might be overlooking White, he ran down on the first kickoff, adroitly slipped a block by WR Glenn Holt and made the tackle at the 18. White isn’t as good from scrimmage as Bishop and Hodge but still might be the team’s best player on special teams.
Lansanah, a rookie free agent from Connecticut, can play strong-side or middle, stops the run, is instinctive and could be ticketed for the practice squad.
SECONDARY (9 or 10)
Locks: CB Charles Woodson, CB Al Harris, S Atari Bigby, S Nick Collins.
Good bets: CB Tramon Williams, S Aaron Rouse, CB Will Blackmon, CB Pat Lee.
On the fence: CB Jarrett Bush, S Charlie Peprah, S Tyrone Culver.
Long shots: CB Joey Porter, CB Scorpio Babers.
Comment: If the Packers keep 10, as they did in ’03 and ’07, Peprah probably regains the No. 4 safety job over Culver and Bush claims the No. 6 berth at cornerback. If the magic number is nine, then it’s a tough call.
Peprah was having an excellent camp before missing the last week (hamstring). He’s more physical than Culver and almost as cerebral.
Williams has laid strong claim to the job as nickel back. Receivers often gain too much separation on Blackmon, but he has value on returns. Lee isn’t going anywhere as a second-round pick, although he doesn’t look ready to play.
Bush is having another solid August, just as he did a year ago before his performance deteriorated in the regular season. Bush has dabbled at safety and Peprah played some cornerback in the off-season, just in case only nine are kept.
SPECIALISTS (3)
Locks: K Mason Crosby.
Good bets: P Jon Ryan.
On the fence: LS J.J. Jansen.
Comment: Ryan is coming off a bad game but has a big leg and is an excellent holder. So far, Jansen has done the job.
QUARTERBACKS (2 or 3)
Locks: Aaron Rodgers.
Good bets: Brian Brohm.
On the fence: Matt Flynn.
Comment: Brohm hasn’t played any better than Flynn but almost definitely has the team made based on signing bonus ($900,000 to $64,175) and draft status. Brohm is feeling his way at this point, whereas Flynn is attacking his opportunities, befitting his personality.
The Packers went with two last season until Rodgers pulled a hamstring and Craig Nall was signed for the final six weeks. They probably could stash Flynn on the practice squad for a year because he was a seventh-round pick, but if he keeps impressing that might be too risky.
Thompson will have to think long and hard about entering the season without a veteran QB as a security blanket.