Official Packer Record Prediction Thread

[paulpressey25]

I figured one of you guys would have started this, but now we're a week out, so I think we need one.

Last year I went 9-7 based on how good I thought the defense looked in the pre-season. This year I'm scaling back to 6-10 based on the amount of injuries and the fact I'm not on board with the concept that the defense can just turn it on once the season starts.

I think that if Rodgers/James Jones/Driver/Jennings stay healthy we'll have one of the best passing offenses in the league. But I think the holes on defense will be too great and the D won't bail us out like they did last year in many instances.

If the team finishes 10-6 it will be a testament to how good a drafter TT is IMHO and mean that other draft picks are stepping up.

[LUKE23]

10-6. The injuries do have me somewhat concerned though.

Don't agree with the comments on the D, IF Pickett/Hawk are indeed 100% by early in the year and Jolly avoids suspension. This is a top ten defense.

I could see us starting slow though.

But I'll stick with 10-6.

[eagle13]

9-7

[ReasonablySober]

Mon 9/8 Minnesota 7:00 pm - W
Sun 9/14 at Detroit 1:00 pm - W
Sun 9/21 Dallas 8:15 pm - L
Sun 9/28 at Tampa Bay 1:00 pm - L
Sun 10/5 Atlanta 1:00 pm - W
Sun 10/12 at Seattle 4:15 pm - L
Sun 10/19 Indianapolis 4:15 pm - L
bye
Sun 11/2 at Tennessee 1:00 pm - W
Sun 11/9 at Minnesota 1:00 pm - L
Sun 11/16 Chicago 1:00 pm - W
Mon 11/24 at New Orleans 8:30 pm - L
Sun 11/30 Carolina 1:00 pm - W
Sun 12/7 Houston 1:00 pm - W
Sun 12/14 at Jacksonville 1:00 pm - W
Mon 12/22 at Chicago 8:30 pm - W
Sun 12/28 Detroit 1:00 pm - W

10 - 6

[rilamann]

I knew this was going to happen,I seen no one had made a prediction thread so figured i'd do it and what happens lol.

EDIT:I just copied and pasted my post from my prediction thread here since PP made his first,just delete my thread MD.

[rilamann]

Before preseason I felt the Packers had a chance to go 11-5 maybe 12-4 and remain in the mix to make noise come January.After watching the preseason I havent changed my mind,matter fact with the play of Rodgers im even more confident about a solid year for the Packers.

But if the Packers pick up where they left off last year their success hinges on 3 big factors in my opinion but I think most would agree on these.

1.Rodgers must play well and stay healthy,obviously.

2.The D-line must stay healthy,if Ryan Picket goes down for an extended period of time we could be in serious trouble.Our starting 4 on the D-line are rock solid,its the lack of depth praticularly at DT if one of those starters gets hurt that is the issue.If this years ''Ryan Grant'' is a DT we could survive an injury.

3.O-line must also stay healthy and become more consistient.Its not a bad bunch but they have to play better than they did last year and with the youth on the line they could very well improve on last year as a unit.

If we get those 3 factors in our favor the Packers will pick up where they left off last season but with a tougher schedule and having a first year starting QB we probably go 11-5 or 12-4 instead of 13-3 but the team will be just as good as last year's squad by seasons end.

Also I dont think the NFC is all that great.When I look at the Packers roster and then look at other Rosters in the NFC there isnt a single team that I look at and say ''wow they are better than us''.

Plus MM is an outstanding coach,if just about anyone else was coaching this team i'd be worried about all the distractions with Favre and all of that but not with MM.

Another thing thats going to work in the Packers favor this year is the lack of respect by a lot of people who are crowning the Vikes NFC north champs.The Packers will use that as motivation to prove they are a good team in their own right.

The Packers didnt go 13-3 last year just because of Favre and the Packers are going to wake a lot of people up to that fact over the course of the season.

The Packers went 13-3 last season because of great coaching,lots of weapons on offense and a defense that holds people out of the end zone along with solid specials teams.Sure Favre was solid and played a role but I dont think he was as big a reason we 13-3 as most people seem to think.

Im talking about the people who seem to think we go 13-3 with Favre in 2007 then replace Favre with with Rodgers and go 7-9.

Thats not going to happen as long as Rodgers is healthy.

Even last season when the Packers kept winning week after week and played solid football on both sides of the ball the national media pretty much gave Favre all the credit and it was realy getting on my nerves.

And sure the Packers stayed fairly healthy last season but people who say ''things magically fell into place for the Packers in 2007'' dont know a damn thing about football.

You dont magically get off to a 4-0 start playing one team that won the Superbowl (Giants) & another than played in the AFC Championship (Chargers).

You dont maigically win @Denver & @KC back to back.

You dont maigically beat a red hot Vikings team 34-0.

You dont magically spot a solid team 2 years removed from the Super Bowl a 14-0 lead then proceed to outscore them 42-6 en route to a 42-20 playoff victory.

If the squad stays healthy they will win the north and go 11-5 maybe 12-4 and likely have homefield or at least one of the bye weeks in the playoffs.

I'll pick which games we win and lose game by game and also make my other NFL predictions later.Im going to look at each teams schedule and predict thier record.

[rilamann]

I figured one of you guys would have started this, but now we're a week out, so I think we need one.

Last year I went 9-7 based on how good I thought the defense looked in the pre-season. This year I'm scaling back to 6-10 based on the amount of injuries and the fact I'm not on board with the concept that the defense can just turn it on once the season starts.

I think that if Rodgers/James Jones/Driver/Jennings stay healthy we'll have one of the best passing offenses in the league. But I think the holes on defense will be too great and the D won't bail us out like they did last year in many instances.

If the team finishes 10-6 it will be a testament to how good a drafter TT is IMHO and mean that other draft picks are stepping up.

Wow only 6-10?

I think the only way the Packers have that poor of a record is if Rodgers shatters his ankle week 1 vs the Vikes and misses the rest of the year.

I wouldnt realy worry about the injuries unless guys arent out there on Monday night.The Packers went 13-3 last year and have a solid team,every starting position on both sides of the ball (Except maybe Collins/Rouse) was known before camp even started.Hell even most of our 2nd string guys where known before camp started.

MM knows what he has with this roster and was being extra cautious and didnt want to risk guys getting hurt or banged up in pre-season.

Its not like the Packers had a bunch of guys battling for starting jobs or a bunch of guys trying to make the team.Agian I wouldnt worry about those injuries unless guys arent out there Monday night.

Sure you run a risk of a rust factor early but i'd rather have the rust factor for a game or two than run the risk of having a guy like Pickett blow out his knee and be lost for the season ala Osi Umenora on the Giants in a meaningless game.

I agree there is a lack of depth on the d-line if one of the starters gets hurt but other than that I totally disagree with you,I think our defense has a chance to be outstanding this year.

If you had a crystal ball and told me all 4 of our starters on the d-line would stay healthy I would predict the Packers to have one of the best defenses in the entire league.

Our secondary and linebacker group is very solid and has solid depth,with the improvment of Tramon WillIAms and the additon of a solid rookie in Pat Lee we now have solid back ups for Woodson & Harris at CB.Saftey is solid with Bibgy,Collins & Rouse even Peprah I think can be a nice back up.

I do agree D-line is the most important group on any defense and if we lost a Ryan Pickett we would be in some trouble but as long as that d-line stays healthy the defense overall should be solid.

As long as Rodgers stays healthy and with the weapons he has to work with all our D has to do hold people under 20pts a game and we'll be fine provided the offense doesnt turn the ball over a lot.

[paulpressey25]

I just don't have a good feeling here about the defense. And it was the defense that really was the catalyst for the fast start last year. We also have a tougher schedule this season (at least on paper it seems) and won't be a surprise team anymore.

Our CB's are getting old, our D-lineman looked very ineffective this summer and we've got Hawk out with a mysterious injury. Somewhere we need a couple guys to come out of nowhere and really excel on D IMHO. Maybe it's Rouse at safety and Jolly on the D-line. I don't know. I just know that by the end of last year, guys like Al Harris and Cullen Jenkins were looking really old.

[LUKE23]

Jenkins is 28. He was nursing an array of injuries all year last year and it definitely limited him. He's ready to go. All of the rest of our defense is in their athletic prime outside of the starting DB's, with a few breakout candidates in there (Hawk/Jolly/one of the safeties). Woodson/Harris are aging, but neither has relied on great speed for the last few years, they are jam at the line/technique corners.

If Pickett and Hawk are healthy, the D is fine. It's the same D as last year press.

If we do fail this year (and by fail I mean under .500), it will be:

1. Because Rodgers is worse than expected
2. Because we suffer significant injuries

I don't see any other scenario where we only finish with 6 wins. Too much talent on the roster and most of it is young.

The OL is one concern, there are injuries there and there has been a ton of shifting around. But I think MM will find ways to minimize the opposing teams pass rush (running the ball more, rolling Rodgers out, quick hitters, etc).

[El Duderino]

My concerns in order

1. Health----Of course this is obvious and goes for every team, nothing can derail a season quicker than a rash of injuries to key players. If Rodgers misses multiple games, any playoff hopes are toast. Same goes for just overall bad luck with injuries across the board.

2. Pass Rush--- Last season, for the bulk of the year, Kampman/KGB/C.Williams largely carried the Packers pass rush and allowed Sanders to play his ultra-vanilla rush 4 defense until Williams and Kampman wore down. Corey Williams was traded and KGB so far hasn't recovered from a bum knee. In the preaseason, our front four rarely got pressure, but the starters didn't play much. Todays NFL is a passing league, an inability to pressure the QB can be deadly vs the good teams who can all pass well. We need some on the defensive line besides Kampman to step up and consistently pressure the QB.

3. Bob Sanders---- I'm not a big fan of him. Last season when C.Williams and Kampman wore down later in the year, the front four pressure went with them and Sanders rarely did anything to help pressure the QB. If KGB struggles all or most of the year to regain his form because of a bum knee and there is little interior pass rush, Sanders will have to scheme ways to get pressure besides just rushing his front four or blitzing one LB up the gut. If the front four can't get enough pressure, i hope i'm wrong and Sanders smarts fill the void.



I'm confident that if Rodgers stays healthy, McCarthy and the talent on offense will lead to good production and points. The defense i can see being top 10 or say 20th in the NFL.

9-7 or 10-6 with reasonable team health and great Rodgers health

[Bernman]

We got a preview of how the team will fare, when last season in the 2nd half we had a depleted defensive line and aging corners. The defense was about average and the team's record was 7-3 (including playoffs). Although the schedule over that span was relatively easily. The schedule as a whole this year is appreciably tougher. The offense should be firing on all cylinders like they did in the 2nd half last season. Get the ball to our young playmakers and watch them do the rest. 10-6.

[Neusch23]

When I saw this thread, I first thought about not responding since I figued it would be another one where I get piled on because I disagree with TT.

I have said since the Favre deal went down that we would be 6-10. I know for a fact that while things are better now that the locker room is still very rocky. They are a couple of losses, and injuries away from several guys shutting it down for the season.

See a collapse like my Chicago Bulls had this past season.

TT now again makes a bone head move and dumps our punter, for a lesser one, IMO, and in the mean time Crosby now has a new holder and long snapper a week before the season starts....dumb.

Because we could have had Favre and Jason Taylor, and been considered a Super Bowl condender to know being a considered by many to be a team who's success depends on if we get healthy...and IF our QB with no career starts proves to be a leader, and also stays healthy....to be a .500 team.

I say 6-10, and that may be high.

I said 9-7 last year, so I hope I am wrong again.

[Neusch23]

I figured one of you guys would have started this, but now we're a week out, so I think we need one.

Last year I went 9-7 based on how good I thought the defense looked in the pre-season. This year I'm scaling back to 6-10 based on the amount of injuries and the fact I'm not on board with the concept that the defense can just turn it on once the season starts.

I think that if Rodgers/James Jones/Driver/Jennings stay healthy we'll have one of the best passing offenses in the league. But I think the holes on defense will be too great and the D won't bail us out like they did last year in many instances.

If the team finishes 10-6 it will be a testament to how good a drafter TT is IMHO and mean that other draft picks are stepping up.

Wow only 6-10?

I think the only way the Packers have that poor of a record is if Rodgers shatters his ankle week 1 vs the Vikes and misses the rest of the year.

I wouldnt realy worry about the injuries unless guys arent out there on Monday night.The Packers went 13-3 last year and have a solid team,every starting position on both sides of the ball (Except maybe Collins/Rouse) was known before camp even started.Hell even most of our 2nd string guys where known before camp started.

MM knows what he has with this roster and was being extra cautious and didnt want to risk guys getting hurt or banged up in pre-season.

Its not like the Packers had a bunch of guys battling for starting jobs or a bunch of guys trying to make the team.Agian I wouldnt worry about those injuries unless guys arent out there Monday night.

Sure you run a risk of a rust factor early but i'd rather have the rust factor for a game or two than run the risk of having a guy like Pickett blow out his knee and be lost for the season ala Osi Umenora on the Giants in a meaningless game.

I agree there is a lack of depth on the d-line if one of the starters gets hurt but other than that I totally disagree with you,I think our defense has a chance to be outstanding this year.

If you had a crystal ball and told me all 4 of our starters on the d-line would stay healthy I would predict the Packers to have one of the best defenses in the entire league.

Our secondary and linebacker group is very solid and has solid depth,with the improvment of Tramon WillIAms and the additon of a solid rookie in Pat Lee we now have solid back ups for Woodson & Harris at CB.Saftey is solid with Bibgy,Collins & Rouse even Peprah I think can be a nice back up.

I do agree D-line is the most important group on any defense and if we lost a Ryan Pickett we would be in some trouble but as long as that d-line stays healthy the defense overall should be solid.

As long as Rodgers stays healthy and with the weapons he has to work with all our D has to do hold people under 20pts a game and we'll be fine provided the offense doesnt turn the ball over a lot.

good post, however you don't take into account the spit locker room, and the fact that several of the vets have come off the TT wagon.

The vets know their window for a super bowl was closing, and TT slammed the door for a youth movement.

With the injuries we also have, and the suspension that looms, it is not realistic to think we will have double digit wins.

Last season several players played through injuries because them at 65% was still much better than their back ups at 100%. Woodson, most of the O line, Harris, Barnett, Favre, etc all played through injuries. We played great in close games, and easily won several games that could have gone the other way, but the vets stepped up.

Will that happen this year? can the players get past the fact that many feel that the FO gave up on winning this season to build for the future?

Teams in the NFL win with vets.

[rilamann]

Another thing I wanted to mention is that as long as MM coaches the Packers his teams will always be better than they are projected to be and better on the field than they appear to be on paper.

I think thats becomming one of MM's trademarks as an NFL head coach,if a MM team is projected to go 9-7 it will always go 10-6 or 11-5.

Thats due of course to his great ability to maximize the talent on his roster and the fact he has that ability (like Holmgren) to be a players coach yet still have total control of the team.

No one expected the Packers to be 8-8 in 2006.

No one expected the Packers to be 13-3 in 2007.

Hopefully a year from now we can say no one expected the Packers to be 12-4 in 2008 after Favre retired.

[LUKE23]

good post, however you don't take into account the spit locker room, and the fact that several of the vets have come off the TT wagon.

The vets know their window for a super bowl was closing, and TT slammed the door for a youth movement.

With the injuries we also have, and the suspension that looms, it is not realistic to think we will have double digit wins.

Last season several players played through injuries because them at 65% was still much better than their back ups at 100%. Woodson, most of the O line, Harris, Barnett, Favre, etc all played through injuries. We played great in close games, and easily won several games that could have gone the other way, but the vets stepped up.

Will that happen this year? can the players get past the fact that many feel that the FO gave up on winning this season to build for the future?

Teams in the NFL win with vets.

Wow, there is a lot wrong with this post, and I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to call bending the truth because of TT hate here.

1. There has been absolutely zero evidence of a split locker room. If you can find one quote from a player that would indicate that, I would like to see it. This was the youngest roster in the NFL last year, you think the entire team is irate that Favre is gone? No. I'm sure guys like Driver and Woodson wanted him back, but they are professionals, they are going to play hard regardless.

2. Jolly won't be suspended this year, most likely. His hearing got pushed back to September 16th, and that is just to see if it goes to trial. First time offenders usually get the entire process before Goodell hands out any suspensions.

3. There are some injury issues, but most teams have similar issues. Jenkins is more healthy than last year, as is Barnett. Hawk, Pickett, Wells, Jones, Sitton all need to get healthy, but only Sitton's looks very serious at this point. I do think Pickett and Hawk need to get on the field, but there is nothing to say right now that they won't play week 1.

6-10 only happens if Rodgers bombs or we have injuries across the board. This is the same D as last year, assuming health. The only difference in the teams is Favre vs. Rodgers.

People need to realize that we weren't squeaking by teams last year. We won a ton of our games by double digits, including a couple absolute blowouts. Our schedule is tougher this year no question, but we still have one of the best rosters in the league.

People really need to get over the TT hate when making comments about the team though.

[El Duderino]

Will that happen this year? can the players get past the fact that many feel that the FO gave up on winning this season to build for the future?

Teams in the NFL win with vets.

Tauscher said it best when Homer asked him how the vets on the team will respond to Rodgers.

He said Rodgers is already liked and respected by the vets, but the full acceptance of his leadership will come or not based on how Aaron performs. If Rodgers plays well, i don't buy at all that the vets on the team won't bust their ass for Rodgers and accept him as a team leader.

I'm not concerned at all that the vets on the team will loaf or revolt because Brett was let go. The only way i see some vets getting pissed off is if Rodgers is terrible. If that ended up being the case, the team won't win anyways because you can't win with a terrible QB, so it won't matter if vets aren't pleased.

[ReasonablySober]

Not even Woodson wanted him back. His quotes during the ordeal reflected that.

[LUKE23]

Yeah, a split locker room simply is not factual. There was a ton of talk about the positive attitude towards Rodgers because of his work ethic at the off-season workouts. He was at every one of them working hard like he was the #1 guy.

It's the same D as last year.

It's the same O as last year, minus Favre plus Rodgers.

It all comes down to Rodgers as to how this season goes.

[El Duderino]

Teammates aren't stupid, they've been playing football long enough to know the importance of the QB to a team having success or failure. Most vets wile wanting to be paid well, they want to win.

If Rodgers performs well, all his teammates will strongly be in his corner. If he plays poorly, Rodgers will frustrate his teammates. That's the life of an NFL QB. Even if the starting QB is kind of a jerk, teammates will back him if he plays a big role in winning. If a starting QB is a swell guy, but plays poorly, the teammates will hope for a change.

By all accounts i've read or heard, Rodgers is already liked and respected. All that's left is can he produce when games count. I like his chances to do so if he stays healthy.

[bucks59]

I think this team goes 8-8 this year, and mainly I think its due to a combination of injuries on the defensive side of the ball along with a tough schedule. I think these will be Packer losses: one of the two Viking games, one of the two Bears games, Cowboys, Colts, Jaguars, Saints, Carolina and one of Tampa/Seattle/Titans.

If there is any area of this team that is going to suffer injuries, its the defensive line for several reasons. The line in general takes a bigger beating than most other positions and the Packers have depth problems there. If Harrell can come back midseason and be effective or if TT can find another DT, I would feel better about this position. The real key to this team will be the linebacker play, but I have no confidence in Sander's ability to use them more aggressively to help out the line.

I think the offense will be fine, though I am worried about Grant. It always scares me when running backs dont get a full training camp in and the offensive line also seems to be having trouble. But Grant was able to come to this team last year after traning camp and obviously had a huge impact for them, so hopefully this won't be a big deal.

If the Packers don't make the playoffs or limp into the playoffs, hopefully they hire a new defensive coordinator. That was the single largest move I disagreed with this summer.