Aaron Rodgers ranked 19th best QB by scouts (McGinn)

[paulpressey25]

McGinn has a column in the paper today where he talks with personnel people with four teams including 3 AFC opponents the Packers played this season.

They are asked to rank whether they'd take Rodgers over 51 other QB's. Rodgers came in ranked 19th.

The issues discussed in the story among these guys are:

a) WIll Rodgers get better? None are sure whether he'll improve or not.

b) Can he lead teams to wins. All agreed he doesn't lose games but none felt he "wins games" for you like Favre did.

c) A couple thought it a big positive that he'll start all 16 games. These were guys who thought he was too frail a QB to do that.

d) There seemed to be some commentary that TT gave him the big money way too soon and some speculated that he hasn't played quite the same since he got the contract and wonder about the mental affect on him with that.

It was a pretty balanced article IMO, talking about how it's possible Rodgers someday becomes a top ten or top-five QB but that it is no guarantee and he's got a long way to go.

[Thunder Muscle]

Interesting stuff. Once Favre originally retired, I got on the Rodgers bandwagon and liked his potential. I truly thought he was going to be solid and had tons of upside. I thought we maxed out with Favre - and I believe there were some in the organization that felt the same if I recall some reports. Favre would be good to win quite a few regular season games, but not sure if he is the guy to get you over the hump anymore (but that is a whole different can of worms). So I was looking forward to what Rodgers could do. He's been good in my opinion. But looking at it now, I tend to find myself agreeing with the "B" above. Unfortunately. He is a solid QB but doesnt appear to be a guy that can "win" games by himself. This year the overall team fell off (defense, special teams, running game, etc) and the solid steady QB wasn't enough to overcome this. I do think there is upside yet, I don't think he is what he is. But there is some concern I have that he is going to be a good QB with good stats, but the team doesn't seem to win the games. Then again, I don't know if that is Rodgers' issue or if its the front office that needs to put together a better 'team'.

[MickeyDavis]

Sounds accurate to me. I thought we gave him the extension too early too. It's not like he was in the last year of his deal.

[Jollay]

Yes, I wanted to read this but it'll be a cold day in hell before I'll pay for jsonline extra content.

I love the fact A-Rod has stayed healthy--that was the major concern I had about him and it bodes well for the future. I also think we paid him too early and slightly too much, but not too worried about that.

What I am worried is how Grant and Rodgers' deals come into play in signing Jennings.

Thanks for posting.

[LUKE23]

Ridiculous ranking. He was top 10 in the NFL in QB rating, led a top 10 offense, and was even better than Favre was last year in the red zone. You don't get docked all the way to 19th just because your D couldn't even close a game out in the fourth quarter.

[ReasonablySober]

Hilarious.

[LUKE23]

The questions asked were hilarious too. Will he improve? Why the hell would he not? How many QB's never improve after their first year as starter?

Lead a team to wins? The Packers led the NFL in fourth quarter scoring, what was our D busy doing in the fourth quarter? Oh yeah, giving up leads. Obviously Rodgers two-minute drill abilities will improve,that is one of the harder aspects of being an NFL QB.

Regarding the contract, blah, he lived up to it and he's not overpaid judging by what other QB's are getting. I have no issues with it.

[El Duderino]

Yes, I wanted to read this but it'll be a cold day in hell before I'll pay for jsonline extra content.

It sucks they changed the site around. I used to read the insider for free by clicking on an article and as the page would start to load, all you had to do was hit stop on your browser and the article would lock and be readable before before it could switch to the insider login page.

As for the article, 19th seems low, but i'll get the paper later and would prefer commenting on something i actually read.

Either way though, so longer as Aaron can stay pretty healthy, i'm very confident he'll be a good QB going forward.

[LUKE23]

Here is an article with the opinions of Jaworski, who's opinion I respect more than any of the MJS guys, by a wide margin. Jaws has actually played the position and is ESPN's best in-depth guy as far was watching tape, and studying the game.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/art ... 1058/PKR01

The Green Bay Packers have their long-term answer at quarterback. The Chicago Bears don’t.

That’s the opinion of Ron Jaworski, the former NFL quarterback who now provides color commentary for ESPN’s telecasts of Monday night football.

Jaworski’s expertise is that of a full-time scout’s when it comes to evaluating NFL quarterbacks. He studies film extensively each week in preparation upcoming games. He played quarterback for 16 years in the NFL, including starting for the Philadelphia Eagles for 10 straight seasons.

He’s watched the videotape of every Packers game this season and has seen every pass by the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers and the Bears’ Kyle Orton. With Rodgers, he sees a quarterback with all the traits to be a top performer.

“I think they’ve got a quarterback for 10 years,” Jaworski said in an interview this week. “They’ve got a lot of areas to address, but they’ve got the quarterback.”

It’s hard to accuse Jaworski of blowing smoke. His public evaluation of Rodgers coming out of college was far different, and this week when asked if Orton is the Bears’ quarterback for the long haul, he offered this candid response:

“No. I think he’s a solid quarterback, but I don’t see him as the long-term answer in Chicago. It’s no disrespect for him. The guy can play 10 or 12 years in this league, but I just don’t see the — unless there’s an epiphany, and from what I’ve seen of late, I just don’t see it. If you’d have asked me this earlier in the season, I’d have said, ‘Yeah, I think the guy’s playing pretty well, he trusts his receivers, he’s making some terrific throws.’ He made a throw against Atlanta which may have been the throw of the year, except Atlanta came back and Matt Ryan took ’em right down the field (for the win). But I thought he was playing much more confident back then.”

Rodgers and Orton, who will face off Monday night for the second time this year, have been the two best quarterbacks in the NFC North Division this season. But if determining the better of the two was a close call early in the season — two of three scouts this column interviewed in early November chose Orton — it doesn’t look as close now. Though Orton has more wins — Chicago has eight, the Packers five — Rodgers looks like the better player.

Jaworski rated Rodgers better in the three major categories a scout can glean from tape (leadership skills aren’t apparent watching game tape alone): Arm talent, mobility and decision making.

“(Rodgers) has an amazing skill set. I think he’ll play very well for a long period of time,” Jaworski said.

Rodgers and Orton are part of a 2005 draft class that in retrospect looks lean at quarterback. The current starters from the class are Rodgers (first round, No. 24 overall), Washington’s Jason Campbell (first round, No. 25 overall), Orton (fourth round, No. 106), Cleveland’s Derek Anderson (sixth round, No. 213), New England’s Matt Cassel (seventh round, No. 230) and Cincinnati’s Ryan Fitzpatrick (seventh round by St. Louis, No. 250). Cassel, Anderson and Fitzpatrick all were backups who became starters this season because of injuries, and of those three only Cassel is a likely future starter.

After four years in the NFL, Rodgers and Cassel look like the cream of that class, and most of the rest of the 14 quarterbacks drafted in ’05 have washed out. That starts with the top pick overall from that draft, Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers, who has struggled when he’s played and had a series of injuries to his throwing shoulder that landed him on injured reserve this year. He won’t be back with the 49ers next year unless he takes a gigantic pay cut, and even then he might be inclined to start over somewhere else.

Three other quarterbacks in the ’05 class had a shot at starting earlier in their careers, lost the job and now are backups: Charlie Frye (third round by Cleveland, No. 67), who now is Seattle’s No. 3 quarterback; Andrew Walter (third round, No. 69), Oakland’s backup; and Dan Orlovsky (fifth-round by Detroit, No. 145 overall), who has been on the Lions’ starting-quarterback merry-go-round this season.

The other four are out of the NFL: David Greene (third round by Seattle, No. 85), who’s not in football right now; Stefan Lefors (fourth round by Carolina, No. 121), a backup for Edmonton in the CFL; Adrian McPherson (fifth round by New Orleans, No. 152), who was cut by Grand Rapids of the AFL last spring; and James Kilian (seventh round by Kansas City, No. 229 overall), who’s not in football either.

Jaworski didn’t recall the order he rated the top quarterbacks coming out in ‘05 but he remembers downgrading Rodgers and doubting his ability to be a top-tier quarterback because of his arm strength — Jaworski didn’t see enough good deep throws on Rodgers’ game videotape at California.

Rodgers, on the other hand, remembers well Jaworski’s ratings in 2005. He said Jaworski rated Smith as the best quarterback in the class, Campbell second and him third. Rodgers also remembers Jaworski’s 30-second TV spot evaluating him as not having a good enough deep arm, and deploring his high ball carriage while dropping back, which Jaworski said cost Rodgers’ throwing strength.

Rogers said he respects Jaworski’s work because the color man watches videotape extensively and had a long and successful career as an NFL quarterback, but he was dumbfounded by the evaluation and called it “probably the worst 30-second piece in history of evaluation of a quarterback pre-draft.

“He said me, I held the ball way up here,” Rodgers added, holding his hands above his right ear, “and lost velocity and wasn’t efficient. I said, ‘I just threw for 66 percent.’ I didn’t understand his evaluation.”

Nearly four years later, Jaworski thinks differently. He now sees a young quarterback with great promise even though the Packers have lost six of their last seven games, and even though Rodgers hasn’t won in the six comeback attempts he’s had after getting the ball back with less than 5 minutes to play and the chance for a go-ahead score. Rodgers ranks ninth in the NFL in passer rating (91.8 points) and No. 10 in average gain per pass (7.45 yards), which is one the better indicators of passing efficiency.

“I think he’s played terrific, I really do,” Jaworski said. “Some of the problems he’s had are symptomatic of a young quarterback on the field. Obviously he’s had a few years to learn, but he’s still basically a rookie on the field. So you see some bad decisions. What I see from him lately is trying to make plays that aren’t there, which is probably pressing like a lot of the guys (on the Packers) seem to be. When you get in the tailspin they’re in you try to make everything perfect, and in this league you can’t do that. He’s kind of, as of late, trying to force plays, and sometimes you end up being embarrassed by that. He’s pressed a little bit. But overall, the body of work has been outstanding.”

Here’s how Jaworski rated Rodgers’ skills:

Arm strength: “When I evaluated him coming out of Cal, I did not see the number of deep throws that projected him to be an upper-echelon NFL quarterback. I saw a good quarterback but not enough of the deeper throws. When I saw him at training camp (this year), obviously he had improved dramatically, the arm strength, the ability to throw the ball down the field accurately, and it’s kind of played out through the season. His arm strength is outstanding.”

Mobility and pocket sense: “That part has gotten better, which I kind of thought it would, feeling the pressure, moving, he’s been very good at that. He’s been very good with play action, his quarterback rating is one of the best in the league off play action, which as an inexperienced quarterback is difficult because there’s a blind spot. You make that play-action fake, you turn your back to the defense, you turn your head to the defense, and you snap around and identify people quickly, is a very good asset to have. He’s very good at that.”

Decision-making: “It’s very good. Some of the mistakes he made, I think he was pressing, trying to make every play, and at times the offensive line has let him down a little bit, they have struggled with a good firm pass protection. Clearly when a quarterback is throwing out of a man hole it makes it a lot more difficult.”

Jaworski also rated Orton:

Arm strength: “It’s above average, not a great arm. Certainly Aaron has a much stronger arm.”

Mobility and pocket sense: “He needs help, he needs protection. He’s not a guy that’s going to move around a lot, has a tendency to stare down receivers.”

Decision making: “Normally (the Bears’ tight-end oriented offense) is not a progression read for him, it’s an inside-out, and at that point the ball’s out. I don’t think at this point in his career he’s very proficient at going through that progression.”

[Ayt]

Could you list who they had ahead of him?

[SugarRay34]

McGinn should reveal his source that said he would take Culpepper over Rodgers and that moron should be fired immediately. That article was a complete joke and just showed me how dumb some scouts can be.

[xTitan]

He is much better than 19, ranks between 8 -12 in most categories in his very first year of starting....that is pretty awesome from where I stand.

[SugarRay34]

Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Cutler, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Ryan, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Favre, Delhome, VINCE YOUNG. He then tied with Campbell, Pennington, and Garcia.

[Ayt]

McGinn should reveal his source that said he would take Culpepper over Rodgers and that moron should be fired immediately. That article was a complete joke and just showed me how dumb some scouts can be.

One of them actually said they'd take Culpepper over Rodgers?

[El Duderino]

Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Cutler, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Ryan, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Favre, Delhome, VINCE YOUNG. He then tied with Campbell, Pennington, and Garcia.

I didn't go get a Sunday paper. Was the premise something like the scout ranking in order who he'd choose to win a single game next week? Who will likely be the best QB's next year? Two years from now? Five years from now?

Not even with just when i see scouts quoted, i'll sometimes read other sites with scouts quoted and it seems like with some of these guys they'll take way out there stances simply to be provocative.

Given the age of Rodgers, his smarts, arm strength, accuracy, and pretty good mobility, if say every team in the NFL lost their QB's and a draft was held for just that position of current NFL QB's, it would be interesting to see where GM's in the NFL would take Rodgers compared to other guys when age/injury issues had to be factored into the equation?

All are guys who have a mix of skills and being young enough to play quite awhile to where IMO either every team or the large majority of teams would very likely pick them over Rodgers.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Eli Manning--- I think he's a bit overrated
Cutler
Rivers
Brees
Roethlisberger
Ryan

Next group of younger QB's worth mentioning at least into the discussion
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Romo-- I think most GM's would pick Romo right, but i do think a couple might take Rodgers
J.Campbell--- I'd take Rodgers and think the majority of GM's would also
Cassel--- I'd rather have Rodgers, but it would be interesting to see who every GM would take if they had to choose one as their QB of the future.
Flacco-- Has prototype size and a great arm. He's done a very solid job for a rookie coming from a school like Delaware and IMO has a pretty bright future. I'd take Rodgers, like Cassel though, it would be interesting just exactly how many GM's would take Rodgers over Flacco.

Aging QB's and/or guys with injury concerns
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

P. Manning--- Still young enough that i think that either every team or nearly every team would likely take him over Rodgers. He's 32 and carried the Colts this year, but it kinda tough to know just when pretty serious decline will hit a guy like Manning? How many really good years does he have left, 3-4-5 given his lack of mobility?

Brady--- He would be an absolute lock to be chosen before Rodgers by every GM and probably still would be, but man was that knee injury was severe and there were also the infection complications.

McNabb--- He's 32 and been injured so many times. I would take Aaron in a blink and think the vast majority of GM's would also.

Palmer--- Many thought he'd be the next Aikman type of QB after the 2005/2006 seasons, he had the prototype size/arm/accuracy package. Palmer though did get the knee injury and his play in 2007 declined and it was poor this year before the injury to his arm. The Bengals franchise is a mess which has to be factored in, but he also could be facing surgery on his throwing elbow.

Delhomme-- He'll be 34 in January

Warner-- I think few if any would take Warner given his age


Regardless of how exactly it would shake out among GM's and how people feel about TT overall, it shouldn't be under stated how fortunate it is for Packer fans that they are transitioning from a HOF quarterback without having to deal with at the very least some lean years of fringe spare part guys at QB until a quality younger on could be found and developed.

[LUKE23]

Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Cutler, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Ryan, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Favre, Delhome, VINCE YOUNG. He then tied with Campbell, Pennington, and Garcia.

Haha, well, that article can be 100% completely discarded. Come on Press, even Mr. Devil's Advocate himself shouldn't be posting that if THAT is the list ahead of him. Garbage.

Jaworski >>>>>>>>>>>>>> all the MJS staff combined.

[LUKE23]

And just for the record, Rodgers was top ten in the following categories:

QB Rating
TD
TD/INT ratio
Completion %
Red zone efficiency
Fourth quarter points scored
Yards per attempt (similar to offensive efficiency in basketball)

He absolutely DOES NOT get docked behind all of those scrubs mentioned just because of faltering in the two-minute drill. That completely ignores that in several of those situations he got the lead for the offense with 4-5 minutes left, only to have the D give it right back.

[Ayt]

Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Cutler, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Ryan, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Favre, Delhome, VINCE YOUNG. He then tied with Campbell, Pennington, and Garcia.

LMAO. Scouts.

[Wilford Brimley]

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

[ACGB]

Someone is going to come to the forum and think it's broken as all the threads have been reset to 2008.