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Jollay wrote:Yes, I wanted to read this but it'll be a cold day in hell before I'll pay for jsonline extra content.

The Green Bay Packers have their long-term answer at quarterback. The Chicago Bears don’t.

That’s the opinion of Ron Jaworski, the former NFL quarterback who now provides color commentary for ESPN’s telecasts of Monday night football.

Jaworski’s expertise is that of a full-time scout’s when it comes to evaluating NFL quarterbacks. He studies film extensively each week in preparation upcoming games. He played quarterback for 16 years in the NFL, including starting for the Philadelphia Eagles for 10 straight seasons.

He’s watched the videotape of every Packers game this season and has seen every pass by the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers and the Bears’ Kyle Orton. With Rodgers, he sees a quarterback with all the traits to be a top performer.

“I think they’ve got a quarterback for 10 years,” Jaworski said in an interview this week. “They’ve got a lot of areas to address, but they’ve got the quarterback.”

It’s hard to accuse Jaworski of blowing smoke. His public evaluation of Rodgers coming out of college was far different, and this week when asked if Orton is the Bears’ quarterback for the long haul, he offered this candid response:

“No. I think he’s a solid quarterback, but I don’t see him as the long-term answer in Chicago. It’s no disrespect for him. The guy can play 10 or 12 years in this league, but I just don’t see the — unless there’s an epiphany, and from what I’ve seen of late, I just don’t see it. If you’d have asked me this earlier in the season, I’d have said, ‘Yeah, I think the guy’s playing pretty well, he trusts his receivers, he’s making some terrific throws.’ He made a throw against Atlanta which may have been the throw of the year, except Atlanta came back and Matt Ryan took ’em right down the field (for the win). But I thought he was playing much more confident back then.”

Rodgers and Orton, who will face off Monday night for the second time this year, have been the two best quarterbacks in the NFC North Division this season. But if determining the better of the two was a close call early in the season — two of three scouts this column interviewed in early November chose Orton — it doesn’t look as close now. Though Orton has more wins — Chicago has eight, the Packers five — Rodgers looks like the better player.

Jaworski rated Rodgers better in the three major categories a scout can glean from tape (leadership skills aren’t apparent watching game tape alone): Arm talent, mobility and decision making.

“(Rodgers) has an amazing skill set. I think he’ll play very well for a long period of time,” Jaworski said.

Rodgers and Orton are part of a 2005 draft class that in retrospect looks lean at quarterback. The current starters from the class are Rodgers (first round, No. 24 overall), Washington’s Jason Campbell (first round, No. 25 overall), Orton (fourth round, No. 106), Cleveland’s Derek Anderson (sixth round, No. 213), New England’s Matt Cassel (seventh round, No. 230) and Cincinnati’s Ryan Fitzpatrick (seventh round by St. Louis, No. 250). Cassel, Anderson and Fitzpatrick all were backups who became starters this season because of injuries, and of those three only Cassel is a likely future starter.

After four years in the NFL, Rodgers and Cassel look like the cream of that class, and most of the rest of the 14 quarterbacks drafted in ’05 have washed out. That starts with the top pick overall from that draft, Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers, who has struggled when he’s played and had a series of injuries to his throwing shoulder that landed him on injured reserve this year. He won’t be back with the 49ers next year unless he takes a gigantic pay cut, and even then he might be inclined to start over somewhere else.

Three other quarterbacks in the ’05 class had a shot at starting earlier in their careers, lost the job and now are backups: Charlie Frye (third round by Cleveland, No. 67), who now is Seattle’s No. 3 quarterback; Andrew Walter (third round, No. 69), Oakland’s backup; and Dan Orlovsky (fifth-round by Detroit, No. 145 overall), who has been on the Lions’ starting-quarterback merry-go-round this season.

The other four are out of the NFL: David Greene (third round by Seattle, No. 85), who’s not in football right now; Stefan Lefors (fourth round by Carolina, No. 121), a backup for Edmonton in the CFL; Adrian McPherson (fifth round by New Orleans, No. 152), who was cut by Grand Rapids of the AFL last spring; and James Kilian (seventh round by Kansas City, No. 229 overall), who’s not in football either.

Jaworski didn’t recall the order he rated the top quarterbacks coming out in ‘05 but he remembers downgrading Rodgers and doubting his ability to be a top-tier quarterback because of his arm strength — Jaworski didn’t see enough good deep throws on Rodgers’ game videotape at California.

Rodgers, on the other hand, remembers well Jaworski’s ratings in 2005. He said Jaworski rated Smith as the best quarterback in the class, Campbell second and him third. Rodgers also remembers Jaworski’s 30-second TV spot evaluating him as not having a good enough deep arm, and deploring his high ball carriage while dropping back, which Jaworski said cost Rodgers’ throwing strength.

Rogers said he respects Jaworski’s work because the color man watches videotape extensively and had a long and successful career as an NFL quarterback, but he was dumbfounded by the evaluation and called it “probably the worst 30-second piece in history of evaluation of a quarterback pre-draft.

“He said me, I held the ball way up here,” Rodgers added, holding his hands above his right ear, “and lost velocity and wasn’t efficient. I said, ‘I just threw for 66 percent.’ I didn’t understand his evaluation.”

Nearly four years later, Jaworski thinks differently. He now sees a young quarterback with great promise even though the Packers have lost six of their last seven games, and even though Rodgers hasn’t won in the six comeback attempts he’s had after getting the ball back with less than 5 minutes to play and the chance for a go-ahead score. Rodgers ranks ninth in the NFL in passer rating (91.8 points) and No. 10 in average gain per pass (7.45 yards), which is one the better indicators of passing efficiency.

“I think he’s played terrific, I really do,” Jaworski said. “Some of the problems he’s had are symptomatic of a young quarterback on the field. Obviously he’s had a few years to learn, but he’s still basically a rookie on the field. So you see some bad decisions. What I see from him lately is trying to make plays that aren’t there, which is probably pressing like a lot of the guys (on the Packers) seem to be. When you get in the tailspin they’re in you try to make everything perfect, and in this league you can’t do that. He’s kind of, as of late, trying to force plays, and sometimes you end up being embarrassed by that. He’s pressed a little bit. But overall, the body of work has been outstanding.”

Here’s how Jaworski rated Rodgers’ skills:

Arm strength: “When I evaluated him coming out of Cal, I did not see the number of deep throws that projected him to be an upper-echelon NFL quarterback. I saw a good quarterback but not enough of the deeper throws. When I saw him at training camp (this year), obviously he had improved dramatically, the arm strength, the ability to throw the ball down the field accurately, and it’s kind of played out through the season. His arm strength is outstanding.”

Mobility and pocket sense: “That part has gotten better, which I kind of thought it would, feeling the pressure, moving, he’s been very good at that. He’s been very good with play action, his quarterback rating is one of the best in the league off play action, which as an inexperienced quarterback is difficult because there’s a blind spot. You make that play-action fake, you turn your back to the defense, you turn your head to the defense, and you snap around and identify people quickly, is a very good asset to have. He’s very good at that.”

Decision-making: “It’s very good. Some of the mistakes he made, I think he was pressing, trying to make every play, and at times the offensive line has let him down a little bit, they have struggled with a good firm pass protection. Clearly when a quarterback is throwing out of a man hole it makes it a lot more difficult.”

Jaworski also rated Orton:

Arm strength: “It’s above average, not a great arm. Certainly Aaron has a much stronger arm.”

Mobility and pocket sense: “He needs help, he needs protection. He’s not a guy that’s going to move around a lot, has a tendency to stare down receivers.”

Decision making: “Normally (the Bears’ tight-end oriented offense) is not a progression read for him, it’s an inside-out, and at that point the ball’s out. I don’t think at this point in his career he’s very proficient at going through that progression.”

SugarRay34 wrote:McGinn should reveal his source that said he would take Culpepper over Rodgers and that moron should be fired immediately. That article was a complete joke and just showed me how dumb some scouts can be.

SugarRay34 wrote:Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Cutler, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Ryan, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Favre, Delhome, VINCE YOUNG. He then tied with Campbell, Pennington, and Garcia.

SugarRay34 wrote:Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Cutler, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Ryan, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Favre, Delhome, VINCE YOUNG. He then tied with Campbell, Pennington, and Garcia.

SugarRay34 wrote:Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Cutler, Brees, Romo, Palmer, Ryan, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Favre, Delhome, VINCE YOUNG. He then tied with Campbell, Pennington, and Garcia.