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Niners kick game winning FG.

Do your mocks through 9 here.

1. Detroit Lions - QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia

2. Kansas City Chiefs - T Andre Smith, Alabama (or Brian Orakpo, Texas)

3. St. Louis Rams - Michael Oher, Mississippi

4. Cincinnati Bengals - HB Chris Wells, Ohio State (Might take Orakpo also)

5. Seattle Seahawks - WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech

6. Oakland Raiders - T Eugene Monroe, Virginia

7. Cleveland Browns - OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forrest

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

9. Green Bay Packers - DE Brian Orakpo, Texas

10. San Francisco - QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma (or DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech)

aka picks #18 and 48 on Thompson's trade down value chart

Bernman wrote:aka picks #18 and 48 on Thompson's trade down value chart

I thought of that as well.....and how you can never have enough quality WR's on your roster.

TT trades down based on the situation. He would have stayed and taken Cason last year had he fell, but he didn't and there was nobody else worth taking that high. TT works on BPA strategy only, not reaching for players based on position.

It's all about who is there, "trading down is the devil" is just a dumb way to look at things.

I'm sure he will have certain guys targeted at #9 this year. If all of them are gone, then it's smarter to trade down than to take a guy that is not worth being picked there. Just common sense.

This is a make or break year for Thompson. Let's hope he has a great draft whether he trades down or not.

MickeyDavis wrote:This is a make or break year for Thompson. Let's hope he has a great draft whether he trades down or not.

Agreed. If we have a relatively healthy team next year and miss the playoffs again, he will definitely be on the hotseat.

paulpressey25 wrote:

Bernman wrote:aka picks #18 and 48 on Thompson's trade down value chart

I thought of that as well.....and how you can never have enough quality WR's on your roster.

And after investing his first pick on a luxury who projected to be a possession receiver in the NFL at best, it turns out TT could have picked up an undrafted free agent (Davone Bess) who will likely be much more productive in this league. Astonishing Bess went undrafted after watching him in college a few times. The kid had crazy talent and killed the Badgers in the one game they played against Hawaii. Not in hindsight I could have told you he'd be better than Jordy. I just assumed he was a 2nd or 3rd round pick until recently. We could have had him and taken a player we actually needed in the 1st round.

Picking #9 each round, plus the extra third rounder, plus cap space (if spent wisely), plus Rodgers with a year under his belt, no reason we can't win the division next year.

I expect GB to win the division next season.

LUKE23 wrote:TT works on BPA strategy only, not reaching for players based on position.

Didn't he take Harrell 16th?

Didn't he take Harrell 16th?

Harrell was projected top 10 before he got injured at Tennessee. I didn't say TT always drafted correctly (although I'm willing to give Harrell one more year since DT's take a while to develop in many cases), but it's not like Harrell was not a highly projected guy.

My point is, some people think trading down is always bad. It's always dependent on what the board looks like when your pick comes up. Had Antoine Cason been available last year, TT would have stood pat and picked him, for example.

LUKE23 wrote:TT trades down based on the situation. He would have stayed and taken Cason last year had he fell, but he didn't and there was nobody else worth taking that high. TT works on BPA strategy only, not reaching for players based on position.

It's all about who is there, "trading down is the devil" is just a dumb way to look at things.

I'm sure he will have certain guys targeted at #9 this year. If all of them are gone, then it's smarter to trade down than to take a guy that is not worth being picked there. Just common sense.

If he thinks the value of player A is greater than the value of players B and C individually, but not greater than them combined, and he won't get player A in the position he could draft B and C, he should stay put and select player A. Get my drift? We've added enough quantity through previous drafts and UDFA's....now time to supplement it with some quality. Nelson wasn't actually individually the best player available at that point. Not nearly. Like PP said he has some overwhelming impulse to draft receivers high even when they aren't remotely a pressing need. He should pay some attention to position. Strict BPA....now that's a dumb philosophy. Your tenth receiver is not going to give your quarterback enough time to throw or limit the opponent QB's time. And with TT's history drafting front 7, and somewhat O-Line, between here and Seattle, maybe he shouldn't stray too far from the consensus unlike he employed visa vie Harrell.

If he thinks the value of player A is greater than the value of players B and C individually, but not greater than them combined, and he won't get player A in the position he could draft B and C, he should stay put and select player A. Get my drift? We've added enough quantity through previous drafts and UDFA's....now time to supplement it with some quality. Nelson wasn't actually individually the best player available at that point. Not nearly. Like PP said he has some overwhelming impulse to draft receivers high even when they aren't remotely a pressing need. He should pay some attention to position. Strict BPA....now that's a dumb philosophy. Your tenth receiver is not going to give your quarterback enough time to throw or limit the opponent QB's time. And with TT's history drafting front 7, and somewhat O-Line, between here and Seattle, maybe he shouldn't stray too far from the consensus unlike he employed visa vie Harrell.

He has an overwhelming need to draft WR's high? What are you talking about? He's never even taken a WR in the first round.

Completely disagree that drafting strict BPA is a bad philosophy, if you draft BPA you can always make other moves later to fill positions of need, while adding a player of impact.

I agree, ideally I'd rather have quality over quantity this draft, but it will be dependent on what the draft board looks like. I'm just not worried, overall I've been happy with TT's drafts.

LUKE23 wrote:He has an overwhelming need to draft WR's high? What are you talking about? He's never even taken a WR in the first round.

I don't have the data handy, but it seems like he has fallen in love with picking WR's. He's used 2nd and 3rds on Terrence Murphy, Jordy Nelson, Jennings, James Jones, and to an extent Finley last year (as a pass catching TE). Then he spent a pick on "Brett Swain" after all that in the seventh round.

In that same time period, he could have spent a 2nd or 3rd round draft choice and picked up Randy Moss or Tony Gonzales if he wanted to really upgrade the receiving targets. Kudos on the Greg Jennings pick. But everything else he's picked in the way of receivers have been a waste. Same thing for running backs/full-backs for that matter.

Jones and Nelson were far from "wastes". Both are talented enough to be great #3's or solid #2 WR's. Finley, you saw today the kind of physical skills he has.

This is a passing league now.

I agree we should have done the Moss trade.

I'm just not worried about it. We aren't taking a WR this year with our first round pick, that I'm pretty sure of.

If we can get Brian Orakpo at 9 and we trade down I'm gonna snap

I also would like Orakpo.

I want one of Orakpo, Maualuga, Jenkins. I think they are the three best defensive players in the draft.

Orakpo will be long gone.

In Don Banks' NFL draft do-over he had Jordy Nelson going #28 in the first round. After seeing this kid not drop a single ball and look like a legit #2 type WR this season I think it's somewhat unreasonable to say he wasn't one of the best values on the board. The kid was a good player for the Packers this season. Add to the information we have from MD about Jennings not wanting to re-sign, his lack of an extension and Driver's age all of the sudden our WR core in two years becomes Nelson, Jones and Martin. I'm not saying WR was where I would have gone but if Thompson doesn't think Jennings will re-sign then WR goes up the list of needs and I'm sure he's glad he got Nelson.

As for a mock, mine remains the same from last week. Luke, I think you're likely getting shut-out from the three guys you want.

1 - Detroit - Andre Smith - OL - This is under the assumption that Detroit actually hires a football person to run their show. The easiest thing to do would be to take Stafford or Bradford and hope he has an impact the way Ryan did in Atlanta. The smart thing would be to build up those two lines and take a QB next season. Or maybe even better, take the LT and pay for Cassell. I personally don't think Smith is the right guy if you're planning on throwing the ball as much as the Lions will. I also don't think his future is at LT. But he's got the most upside of any offensive lineman and if he doesn't work on the outside you have an All-Pro caliber run-blocker on the inside.

2 - St. Louis - Eugene Monroe - LT - I think they should take Bradford and sit him for two years, but they need Pace's replacement. I think Oher ends up falling quite a bit after his personal interviews and they see the sort of lackadaisical play in his senior season. This is a kid that came in with an unreal amount of hype and the word is that it's gotten to him. Monroe is the reason that Brendan Albert played guard last season at Virginia and he can come in and have a Ryan Clady type impact from the start.

3 - KC - Brian Orakpo - Another team with needs, but after Thigpen emerged it became apparent that QB wasn't one of them. Their three biggest needs are pass rushing, OL and linebacker. This is a team that would love to trade down to ensure Maybin, Brown or Orakpo and pick up a top center in the process. I think they would like Maualuga as well, but not over their pass rush. Dorsey was a huge disappointment this season but they could get more out of him if he wasn't doubled so much.

4 - Seattle - Michael Crabtree - You would think that Crabtree is the no-brainer, but I've heard that Taylor Mays is a darkhorse here. They loathe the play of their safeties and they think that, when healthy, their WR core is serviceable. I don't particularly buy it. Crabtree is being compared to both Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin and I'm not sure you can pass that up.

5 - Cleveland - Chris "Beanie" Wells - Lewis is done-zo. They need a pass rusher but Orakpo is gone and I don't see Maybin as a 3-4 backer. He's a slender 4-3 DE. Jenkins could be an option here but when you have a young QB, a couple studs on the offensive line and questions at WR I think the running game needs to be addressed. Beanie is an Ohio guy, would fit their scheme and can settle their ground game from day one. If Everette Brown wows them he could go here, as well.

6 - Cinci - Aaron Curry - This team needs a LT, maybe more-so than the top two. But they get shut-out at #6 so I think they would love to deal down. That won't happen so they're going to have to look at their secondary needs: linebacker and runningback. I think that Chris Wells could possibly blow away teams if he comes in cut and runs a sub-4.4. However, there are legit questions about his toughness. He's a big back that plays small. I think it's too high, but I'm giving them Aaron Curry. He teams with Rivers to give the Bengals a top combination.

7 - Oakland - Rey Maualuga - Two needs on this team more than anything: Run defense and pass protection. Michael Oher would have been the pick if the team didn't think Mario Henderson could hold down the job. They really like the guy, though and he's got prototypical left tackle size. I'm going to watch the Raiders game this week and check this kid out. If he holds the left side down then they'll address the middle of the defense. If he looks lost or gets beat, I think the third offensive tackle goes here. For now I like Maualuga because he allows Morrison to move outside and gives the Raiders an identity.

8 - Jacksonville - Malcolm Jenkins - This is a tough pick. If it were me this would be where Bradford would go. Maybe even Stafford. Hell, maybe even Jeremy Maclin. I actually think this would be an ideal spot for Maclin as he offers everything on offense that the Jags don't have. Speed, quickness and home run ability. On the other hand, this was a team that was expected to contend this season. I don't think they want to rebuild so much as they want to re-load. Jenkins is too good to fall any further. Darkhorse is Mays.

Guys on board:
Taylor Mays
Aaron Maybin
Gerald McCoy
Vontae Davis
Michael Oher
Jason Smith
Jeremy Maclin
Everette Brown
Jermaine Gresham
Michael Johnson

9 - Green Bay - Jason Smith - I'm really not amped about the possibility of getting Oher and Smith isn't the sexiest of picks, but with Tauscher's situation it's almost a necessity to address the offensive tackle position. I really like Smith. He's big, athletic and skilled. I think the strategy becomes what New Orleans did with Brown; start him on the right side for one year and move him to the left the following season.

It would pain me a bit to see an elite pass rusher slide by. I'm not huge on Mays but his upside is enormous as well. The best option, if the Jets make the playoffs, may be to deal back up into round one and take either Oher or Britton and nab Maybin or Brown with that first pick.

But assuming we stand pat, I think this is how the draft would shape up.