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Great Article on Points Scored vs. W/L Correlation

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 9:55 pm
by LUKE23
http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/art ... 1058/PKR01

But 2008 has been unusual to say the least. How else to explain scoring more than 400 points while finishing with a 6-10 record?

The Packers piled up 419 points, seventh best in team history. In 88 seasons, the club has gone over 400 points 10 times. Aside from this year and the 1983 team (8-8), a winning record always has followed.

Of the more than 750 NFL teams with losing records since 1920, only five have scored 400 or more points: the 2004 Chiefs (7-9, 483 points), the 1985 Bengals (7-9, 441), the 1981 Falcons (7-9, 426), the 2001 Colts (6-10, 413) and your 2008 Green Bay Packers.


This is to those who say, "don't show me points Rodgers, show me wins". There are two sides to the football, one was very good this year, one wasn't. 5 out of 750 is VERY convincing evidence.

Re: Great Article on Points Scored vs. W/L Correlation

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 10:10 pm
by Kerb Hohl
I know that Vegas is usually pretty smart, but if we make a few upgrades on the lines and at LB and Vegas only has us pegged for 7 or 8 wins, I am putting a few hundred on the over.

Re: Great Article on Points Scored vs. W/L Correlation

Posted: Mon Jan 5, 2009 2:25 am
by Ayt
This is related:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-r ... oa-ratings

Green Bay ends up with 8.9 Pythagorean wins, which means the difference between their actual win-loss percentage and the Pythagorean projection is -.183. The Packers end up ranking as the ninth most "unlucky" team since the 1970 merger. As you might expect, eight of the other nine teams in the top ten improved the following year, most by three wins or more. On the other hand, Green Bay's DVOA rating has dropped from fifth after Week 11 to 16th at the end of the season. Yikes.


And this from the same author the week prior:

Speaking of which -- Honestly, how often can one team lose by less than a touchdown? Actually, the record seems to be eight. Since the merger, three teams lost eight games by less than a touchdown: the 2001 Panthers, the 1993 Patriots, and the 1984 Browns. The Packers have now lost seven games by four points or less.

You won't be surprised to learn that the Packers have the biggest difference in the NFL between their actual wins and their Pythagorean wins (explained here, for those who don't know the concept). You don't see a lot of teams that go 5-10 despite outscoring their opponents. Right now, the Packers are on pace to underachieve their Pythagorean projection by .213, which would be more than any team since 1981. Standing in their way... the team with the second-biggest gap this year (.167), the winless Detroit Lions. It's likely that this week's game will move both teams' win totals closer to their Pythagorean projections... unless the Packers actually figure out a way to lose to Detroit. In which case, man, there is just no justice in this universe.

Re: Great Article on Points Scored vs. W/L Correlation

Posted: Mon Jan 5, 2009 3:17 am
by xTitan
No bigger fan of Rodgers than me but remember 2 returns by Blackmon on special teams and the Packers returned a handful of picks for TD's as well.....