Pacers Playoff Hopes?

[MUpacersSIC]

In a thread in the General area people are listing the teams they think will make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference next season. And, to my surprise, many have the Pacers not just not in the playoffs but at the bottom two or three in the conference along with New York. Is that a fair assessment or do they just not know a damn thing? I mean, we are virtually playing with the same team as last year with a few very good additions to the team: Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert, TJ Ford, Rasho, and Jarrett Jack. To me when you add those players with Granger, Dunleavy, Foster, and Murphy you've got a pretty decent team. I personally think it is WAAAAAAAY to early to be making predictions on the playoffs, but I must say I think we've got a pretty good shot to make at least one of the 6 to 8 spots. Although, getting a top 5 draft pick does sound pretty intriguing. (but I'm not sure the next draft class is worth it) What are your thoughts on the Pacers playoff potential?

[PR07]

The Pacers almost made the playoffs last season, and half of the season Travis Diener was their starting PG and Jermaine was out. I have a hard time believing they won't make it this season with a better and deeper lineup unless the rest of the East gets a lot better.

[FreeRon]

I don't know if they'll make it or not, but they're close. That being said, so is just about every Eastern Conference team. Anyone who would put money on who gets the last two spots in the East this year has too much money or is a friend of Tim Donaghue's.

[Indy07]

Im not holding high hopes thats for sure. The NBA will be very competitive next year and I just don't think we have the experience or assets to put together a .500 campaign (may not be necessary to make the playoffs but its a bench mark)

[cdash]

Predictions this early are silly, but I think we have a pretty good shot. A lot of these East teams look good on paper, but every year, at least one team seems to underachieve big time. Chicago and Miami were huge disappointments this past year. I'm not sure we can call Atlanta or Philadelphia sure-fire playoff teams yet. I actually think Philly takes a step back and wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see the Hawks out of the playoffs again. I cant see Charlotte, New York, or New Jersey making it. Chicago and Miami are probably back, although one must be concerned about their completely inexperienced coaching staffs. Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Cleveland, and Toronto all seem like pretty solid playoff teams. Washington is awfully close. Its just who gets the breaks, who suffers from injuries, which team's players start tuning out their coach, and who overachieves. Of course we are all biased, but I feel confident in saying that, all things equal, we are good enough to compete for the 5th seed. Ask me again in two months and I'm sure things have changed.

[IndieRuso420]

I think the playoffs are a realistic goal. I said this in the general thread that I really think this team is going to gel. Sometimes, great team chemistry can beat out better talent. I am hoping this is the case for the Pacers and we see them get a 6-8 seed.

However, if the Pacers miss the playoffs, I won't be surprised of dissapointed. I realize this is not the Reggie era and personally, I love the thought of adding Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio. I still want to make the playoffs more. Either way, playoffs or lottery, I just want to watch this Pacer team play.

[cdash]

I think the playoffs are a realistic goal. I said this in the general thread that I really think this team is going to gel. Sometimes, great team chemistry can beat out better talent. I am hoping this is the case for the Pacers and we see them get a 6-8 seed.

However, if the Pacers miss the playoffs, I won't be surprised of dissapointed. I realize this is not the Reggie era and personally, I love the thought of adding Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio. I still want to make the playoffs more. Either way, playoffs or lottery, I just want to watch this Pacer team play.

I love the thought of adding Griffin or Rubio too...but they are more than likely going to be two of the top picks in the draft. We would have to suck royal amounts of crap to be in a position to get them, or get insanely lucky in the lottery. I will be disappointed if we dont make the playoffs. I dont like next years draft and I think this team is very capable of making it.

[Miller4ever]

These people posting the Pacers are just not thinking of Indy when they're thinking of all the other teams out there, and then when they finally get to us, they don't know what moves we made, just that we didn't make crap last year and that we're losing Jermaine, so we MUST be screwed. I bet a lot of teams also neglected to look at the Clippers, but they could very well be in the playoffs again.

[count55]

OK...let's break it down:

Teams in East that are clearly better:

Boston
Detroit
Orlando
Cleveland

Teams in East that are probably better, but could fall:

Toronto (if JO doesn't stay healthy)
Washington (if Arenas leaves)

So realistically, the Pacers ceiling would be around a 7 seed.

So what about the rest. The problem with the East is that you could argue all of the teams could be better or could be worse than the Pacers, depending.

Philly & Atlanta were the last two playoff teams last year. Philly is a solid team with a veteran point guard (Miller) and an emerging star in Iguodala. Atlanta is an exciting young team with a good backcourt (Bibby & Johnson) and some young athletes in Marvin Williams and Josh Smith. You could make a strong argument for both teams continuing to be better than the Pacers next year. However, the Pacers beat them both handily late in the season last year. JO played in both games, but only averaged 7 pts, 5 rebs, and 3 blks in 20 minutes.

Also, both Iguodala and Josh Smith are restricted free agents. With Baron leaving GS, and Arenas likely to re-sign with the Wiz, passing on the max offer GS made, that leaves GS with some money to go sniffing around these two players. Of the two, I would expect Philly to match any offer, but I'm not sure that Atlanta couldn't be outbid on Josh Smith.

After the playoffs, we run into the teams that were worse than the Pacers last year, but either had injuries that could heal or made additions that could make them better than the Pacers. These include Chicago, Milwaukee, and Miami.

Chicago, obviously, has added Rose, but they should be able to add another piece to their puzzle by dealing Hinrich. Deng and Gordon are restricted free agents, and they have a new coach in Del Negro. If I were to bet, I'd say they will start the season off worse than the Pacers, but could end up catching and passing them in terms of quality, even if the full year record is worse. I'd put the Pacers ahead of them right now.

Milwaukee has added Richard Jefferson and Joe Alexander to their current roster. They've also hired Scott Skiles as coach. From a talent perspective, this is a team that, if healthy, should probably be better than the Pacers. I also think Skiles is a good coach, but hard to take. If the team adapts to him quickly, they could make a huge leap. If they don't mix, it will be a long season in Cheeseland. I'd put them even with the Pacers right now, maybe a little behind.

Miami will (or should) (a) get back Wade, (b) add Beasley, and (c) stop tanking. This is going to be a good test for this franchise. There's plenty of reason to argue that they'd be back in the playoffs this season, but nobody saw this year coming at all. I think they are the most likely to make a huge leap simply because of Wade's presence. I'd put them ahead of the Pacers on that alone.

So, that leaves me with only three teams that I consider to be clearly worse than the Pacers: Charlotte, New Jersey, and New York.

Charlotte made a big move in hiring Larry Brown, and that could help them a lot, but I just don't like the way their team is built particularly. Okafor's a good player, but I've never been fans of Wallace and Richardson. Their recent draft history has been spotty (Morrison, May, Felton), and their draft netted them Augustin, who could be OK, and Ajinca, who won't be a factor. If this team buys into Larry Brown's philosophy, then they could leap frog and contend for the playoffs. However, I don't see that this year.

New Jersey is in full "clean house" mode prepping for a run at the 2010 Free Agent class. They were awful post All-Star break, and they just traded Jefferson away for Yi and Simmons. They've added Brook Lopez and Ryan Anderson, but I'm not convinced either will have an immediate impact. Devin Harris performed well after the trade (15.4 pts, 6.5 asts), but I see a lot of holes here. More importantly, I don't see an overwhelming interest in this particular season.

What can we say about the Knicks? Well, they made the biggest improvement any team can make: they moved Isiah out of the way, both off the bench and in the front office. Walsh and D'Antoni are huge upgrades, and this may be the last year we'll be able to make fun of the Knicks. However, this year, they will be bad. They're still saddled with the problem and headcases Isiah brought in. I think Gallinari was a good pick up for them, but they'll spend this year unwinding the mess Isiah made. I'd be surprised if they hit 30 wins.

So, I believe the Pacers could likely end up anywhere between 7th and 12th in the Eastern Conference. I oulined this in my "Last Three Days" thread, but I think the Pacers have improved themselves, despite the loss of JO. I believe that their perimeter defense is greatly improve, their Point Guard rotation is much, much stronger, and they've added a quality player in Rush for the wing rotation. The big man rotation isn't exciting, but it's at least as good as last year's that featured a diminished JO. I think if Ford plays 70+; Granger, Dunleavy, and Murphy build on last year's performance, and Brandon Rush is able to contribute, then we should be better than Philly and Atlanta, and may be able to challenge Toronto and Washington.

My heart tells me to pencil the Pacers in at the 6th or 7th seed, with an outside shot at the 5th seed. My head tells me that we will likely be at or slightly below .500 and will probably just miss the playoffs, again. However, even if this year turns into another 36-win season, it will almost certainly be a lot more enjoyable and optimistic 36-win season than the previous two years have been.

[mizzoupacers]

That's a good breakdown of the Eastern Conference, Count. I haven't thought that much yet about whether other teams in the East will be better or worse, and there will still be some personnel moves between now and November anyway. So I'm going to stick to saying that I think the Pacers ought to be somewhat better than they were last season.

Why? Huge upgrade at the point guard spot. I think that will more than offset whatever we lose by not having JO for forty-something games next year.

Also, it doesn't hurt to have added two real, actual, bona fide centers to the team. Rasho is a pretty decent player. And Hibbert hopefully will get there, maybe by the second half of the season he will be playing pretty well as a regular in the playing rotation.

I just like the direction the team roster seems to be going in. Looks to me like there will be a better balance--no longer will our backcourt be atrocious--and the bad-character guys will either be gone or marginalized or surrounded by better influences.

Whether the improvements will be enough to get us into the postseason, I don't know. And of course the Pacers may make another trade or two themselves before the season starts.

[Indydave]

I think the Pacers will finish anywhere between 7-10th in the Eastern Conference. One thing for sure is that the team will be much more enjoyable, even if we have a similar W/L record to last season's record. We will be without Tinsley, and JO, who missed significant time L/Y, replaced those guys with improvements over our lineup last year (Ford, Rasho, Jack), picked up 2 rookies that will definitely contribute (Rush, Hibbert), and the only remains of our "misbehaving" players (Daniels, Williams) are on alert and may not be on the team by the start of this season. Even if the P's do nothing else trade-wise, we'll be just fine, and if not, we end up with 4 expiring deals at season's end. I think things are already looking up

[joew8302]

Great logical post pp. I do think the Pacers have a decent shot at the playoffs, but I am certainly not betting my bank account on it for a lot of the reasons that have been laid out. I do wonder how the new lineup will be, but I think there are two MAJOR questions that need to be answered. Can we stay relatively healthy? Are these moves more lateral, good or bad? We won't know these answers till we set foot on the court.