Where does Hibbert fit in?

[Train7492]

I was just wondering where everyone thought Hibbert would fit in. With Foster, Rasho does that mean that he will be our 3rd string C. I think Foster or Rasho will be the starter. The only way I see him getting the minutes he really needs is if we trade one of them. Just wanting some thoughts from other posters.

[count55]

It obviously depends on how quickly he's ready to contribute. He could be anywhere from a complete non-factor to someone who wins the starting job by mid year. Consider this:

There are 7,872 minutes available at the Big Man (4 & 5) positions this year (96*82). Figure that Rasho, Jeff, & T-Murda chew up 6,075 of them (75 games each, 24, 24, & 33 minutes per night, respectively). That leaves just under 1800 minutes available at the bigs. Hibbert should have the opportunity to be first in line for those.

His biggest threat might actually come from a small lineup with Rush, Dunleavy, and Granger playing between Ford/Jack & Rasho/Jeff. I see no overwhelming reason that he shouldn't have the edge over Baston, Williams, and McRoberts in getting those minutes. Even with Foster, Murph, and Rasho, if he's ready, he should be able to pull down 15 minutes a night.

If he develops into a key rotational player or starter this season (best case scenario), then he'll eat into the minutes that I've allotted to Rasho. I could easily see the 96 minutes being chewed up on a regular basis as 33 Murph, 24 Foster, and the other 39 being split roughly 50/50 between Rasho & Hibbert.

Truth be told, he seems to have a clearer path to getting significant minutes than Rush, who currently is competing with Granger, Junior, Daniels, and Jack. All of those guys are bigger threats than the ones Roy's up against.

[Scoot McGroot]

Much like count, I see Hibbert getting some small amount of minutes early on, but then as the season shakes out, I think he'll turn out to get some solid rotational minutes (10-15 minutes a night) with Foster or Rasho having to step down on occasion and chew up some PF minutes since we'll essentially see Murphy play about 30-35 minutes a night there and also, I believe, Baston getting around 10 minutes a night there. That leaves anywhere from 3-8 minutes a night that Foster will have to step down to play PF next to Rasho or Hibbert, while Fosters other 18-20 minutes a night will come at C, and Rasho will chew up the vast majority of the other 28-30 minutes a night at center, but HIbbert will likely get around 4-8 minutes a night from the beginning.

[mizzoupacers]

^ Working against Hibbert, though, is that he can only play center. Which means the minutes available at power forward may not have much impact on Hibbert's playing time.

Figuring Murphy plays at least 30 minutes a night at power forward--which seems like a pretty safe bet with our current roster--who gets the remaining minutes? Hibbert can't play power forward. Rasho can't play power forward. Foster can play power forward, but he can't score. Which means we'll need a center in the game who can score. Which probably means Rasho. Hibbert wasn't much of a scorer even in college, so I doubt he's going to be much of a scorer as an NBA rookie. Can't see him on the court too often at the same time as Foster.

The power forward minutes that don't go to Murphy are probably either going to go to Foster, which doesn't open up minutes for Hibbert if he can't play alongside Jeff, or to guys like Williams and Granger, which also doesn't open up minutes for Hibbert.

The way I see it, Hibbert's minutes will pretty much be determined by how he compares to the other centers, unless he proves he can score. He's competing almost entirely against Foster and Rasho for playing time. Those two guys are pretty solid veteran centers. I doubt Hibbert plays a whole lot this year.

[CableKC]

Assuming that Murphy/Rasho/Foster will be in the 1st/2nd/3rd Frontcourt rotation. Hibbert would be playing alongside, ahead of or behind of Baston and McRoberts for about 10-15 mpg.

[Hitman02]

I really hope Roy gets some minutes this year and can develop. I know this Harrington rumor may never happen, but I think those two would work great together with the whole offense/defense balance (assuming Hibbert pans out as a solid defender). It reminds me sort of the opposite of the Smits/D.Davis combo, where one can focus on scoring while the other can clean the boards.

[count55]

^ Working against Hibbert, though, is that he can only play center. Which means the minutes available at power forward may not have much impact on Hibbert's playing time.

Figuring Murphy plays at least 30 minutes a night at power forward--which seems like a pretty safe bet with our current roster--who gets the remaining minutes? Hibbert can't play power forward. Rasho can't play power forward. Foster can play power forward, but he can't score. Which means we'll need a center in the game who can score. Which probably means Rasho. Hibbert wasn't much of a scorer even in college, so I doubt he's going to be much of a scorer as an NBA rookie. Can't see him on the court too often at the same time as Foster.

The power forward minutes that don't go to Murphy are probably either going to go to Foster, which doesn't open up minutes for Hibbert if he can't play alongside Jeff, or to guys like Williams and Granger, which also doesn't open up minutes for Hibbert.

The way I see it, Hibbert's minutes will pretty much be determined by how he compares to the other centers, unless he proves he can score. He's competing almost entirely against Foster and Rasho for playing time. Those two guys are pretty solid veteran centers. I doubt Hibbert plays a whole lot this year.

I agree that Hibbert will only see minutes at the 5, but I see absolutely no reason that Hibbert can't play alongside Foster. Among Hibbert's strengths are a mid-range shot, back to the basket scoring, and passing. Are you going to run the offense through Hibbert? No, but you're not going to run it through Rasho, either. Unless Murph's on the floor, the scoring will come from the wings and the point. I don't a lineup of Ford-Junior-Danny-Foster-Hibbert being crippled by a lack of scoring.

Actually, both short- and long-term, I think Foster is the type of 4 that will pair up best with Hibbert. Foster's quickness and rebounding will help offset Hibbert's core weaknesses. Meanwhile, I believe that Hibbert will be competent to skilled offensive player. That doesn't mean that he be a big scorer. Rather, it means that he'll play within the offense well and be productive as called upon to hit shots, make passes, and provide something of a post presence. (I'm far more concerned about his mechanical nature and (apparently) somewhat limited atleticism hurting him on defense.)

[HicksvsKnicks08]

Working against Hibbert, though, is that he can only play center.

I actually think that works in his favor. When we play against a big front line, like Toronto, or Portland, then Foster/Murph will play PF, and Rasho/Hibbert will play center. I can see Hibbert's biggest challenge on the defensive end. I think being a rookie he will get hit with a lot of "questionable " calls. In my opinon, if he can stay out of foul troubble, he will be on the court, and on the ciurt he will learn the game. I really think he could end up being the preverbial "steal of the draft". He is not as slow as I thought, and has a nice inside game. He reminds me of a young Big Z. with possibly better defense.

[mizzoupacers]

I'm clearly a lot less optimistic about Hibbert's offensive talents than the rest of you. I don't want to continue this argument, since I hope to be proved wrong!

[count55]

Random factoid that I don't know if it means anything:

Roy Hibbert 2007-2008 averaged 13.6 ppg.

Brandon Rush 2007-2008 averaged 13.3 ppg.

[count55]

Not continuing the argument so much as trying to reassure you (or demonstrate why I have some optimism):

This is from draftexpress...you're free to take it FWIW:

After a very encouraging junior season at Georgetown, Roy Hibbert hasn’t performed as well as many expected he would as a senior, with his efficiency falling off considerably, though his 60% field-goal percentage is still hardly anything to sneer at. Also, despite improving on his repertoire of moves and know-how in the post over the past three years, Hibbert’s minutes, points, and rebounds per game have mostly remained stagnant during that time period, which can be seen as concerning.

Looking at his game this season, one thing Hibbert clearly consistently does well with is his scoring in the painted area, where he has a nice repertoire of moves at his disposal. His bread-and-butter would have to be his hook shot, as he’s nearly automatic with his right hand, and solid with his left as well. He can convert his hook shots in a variety of ways, either from a standstill, rolling across the lane, or coming off a spin move. With his height and length, these shots are virtually unblockable, and these are shots he likely won’t have trouble getting off even at the next level due to his size. Hibbert clearly favors using these hook shots, but he will show off nice dropstep or turnaround jumper moves on occasion, and generally shows good footwork and transitioning between fakes and moves in the post, though he can be prone to traveling when he tries to do too much. His quickness in getting off moves, while not a problem at this level, may become an issue at the next level, where he’ll face bigger, more athletic defenders and have peskier weakside help to deal with.

Read the rest here: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Roy-Hibbert-585/

Roy may never score more than 10 or 12 points a night in his career. He may only average 5 or 6 pts (or less) next season. However, there's a difference between not being a scorer and being an offensive liability. With Jeff, he scores by accident, and you generally don't want him to get an opportunity unless it's a putback or a fastbreak. It appears that Hibbert, on the other hand, will have a number of different tools that will allow him to score, or even be used in the offense, when the opportunity presents.

Think Antonio Davis (Hibbert) vs. Dale Davis (Foster).

BTW...another guy I'm a huge fan of his analysis is tbird over on PD.

http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-def ... ostcount=1

[HicksvsKnicks08]

Count55,

I have also read T-Bird on PD, thought he worked for ESPN or something. There is another statistical chart done by someone at collegehoops.net where the writer takes into account things like tempo of the team, other options etc. Hibbert faired real with adjusted stats. I might be drinking some pretty strong kool-aid, but I think he will average 10pts a game

[Gremz]

I'd be happy with 10-15 mins to start with and, if proven ready, bumped up to 20-25, that would be a dream scenario. To be honest Hicks i think 10PPG is a bit of a stretch, although i wouldn't be opposed to it of course.

[HicksvsKnicks08]

10 pts a game probably is a stretch, but heck the kool-aid tastes good, especially if you mix it with some grey goose. lol

[Gremz]

OH NO! You can't mix the Goose! It's genius lies in having it straight! lol.

[floppymoose]

Figuring Murphy plays at least 30 minutes a night at power forward

I expect Troy to play 28 a game again like he did last season. Troy's play level drops quickly when he goes over 30 minutes. He needs to be paced. This also may help to keep foot problems from recurring.