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KLN's Vote Mock, (#13)

Moderators: pacers33granger, Grang33r, pacerfan, Jake0890, boomershadow

Who do you want at 13?

Blair
9
41%
Henderson
3
14%
Flynn
3
14%
Daye
0
No votes
Lawson
2
9%
Johnson
1
5%
Other (Specify)
4
18%
 
Total votes: 22

xxSnEaKyPxx
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#21 » by xxSnEaKyPxx » Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:49 pm

PR07 wrote:See I'll disagree on that. Derek Fisher is a starter, but I'd consider him a role player. Trevor Ariza is a starter, but I'd also consider him a role player. I think you definitely can be a starter and still be a role player. I consider a role player a guy who knows his role, performs his well, and doesn't try to do too much or anything really outside of his role. They let the stars be stars and are ok doing the little things and not so flashy things that it takes to win.

But there is no way you actually believe Blair is a legit starting caliber in this league, is there? 5 years from now, you would be happy with Blair starting?
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#22 » by mizzoupacers » Wed Jun 17, 2009 3:20 pm

I see Blair as a risky pick. Maybe he turns out to be another Millsap--and the Pacers could sure use a guy like that--but the fact is, 6'6" power forwards who dominate at the NBA level are the exception rather than the rule. If we do take him, I wouldn't feel disappointed exactly, but I'd be praying that he's not a swing-and-a-miss (like Diogu was).

I'm still hoping Clark falls to us. He's a bit risky too, but I think he has too much talent to pass up. Rush/Granger/Clark gives us (I think) three good defenders and also three versatile offensive players who would create a lot of matchup problems. I'd feel better about it if we had a center to go with them who really dominated the paint--not sure Hibbert is really that guy, although I'm certainly happy to have him on the Pacers--but I think the Pacers can't worry about that right now, the team is a work in progress and for now they just need to get the best player available.

If not Clark, then I think I'm hoping for either Henderson or Maynor, each of whom I think will be very solid NBA players, though not stars.

There's probably another half dozen guys I'd be fine with too--to me, there is no obvious selection for the Pacers who is likely to available at #13. Among the half dozen I'd include Jennings, although I have absolutely no opinion on him, because all we have to go on are published scouting reports, which are notoriously worthless. Sebastian Telfair was supposed to be the Isht, according to the scouting reports. Not saying that Jennings is going to be a bust, just that we have no earthly idea whether he'll be any good or not. If the Pacers take him, I'll just hope that the Pacers know what they are doing.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#23 » by xxSnEaKyPxx » Wed Jun 17, 2009 3:36 pm

Like I said, with pretty much anyone in our range, I'd be okay with on some level, except for Blair.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#24 » by PR07 » Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:54 pm

DGrangerRx33 wrote:But there is no way you actually believe Blair is a legit starting caliber in this league, is there? 5 years from now, you would be happy with Blair starting?


Who's to say? I think some people act like Blair is a finished product. The fact is, is that he's only 20 years old. The player we have today isn't going to be the same player we have 5 years from now.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#25 » by laydo » Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:59 pm

IMO...


1.LA Clippers - Blake Griffin
2.Memphis - Ricky Rubio
Possibly being traded down to SAC or NYK.

3.Oklahoma City - Hasheem Thabeet
4.Sacramento - Tyreke Evans
5.Washington - Stephen Curry
#5 could be traded to...
NYK for the retiring contract of Mobley
DAL for Stackhouse, whose contract is not fully guaranteed next season.
PHX for Amare Stoudamire

Knicks, Mavs, and Suns all need a point guard. Curry may be the best choice.

6.Minnesota - James Harden
Since they've got Foye and Telfair, T-wolves aren't likely to pick a combo guard like Jrue Holiday.

7.Golden State - Jordan Hill
Don Nelson like guys who's athletic and with good rebounding.

8.New York - Brandon Jennings
Backup choice if they didn't get Ruibo or Curry.

9.Toronto - Demar DeRozan
10.Milwaukee - DeJuan Blair
Blair is a tough guy that Scott Skiles wiil appreciate a lot.

11.New Jersey - Jonny Flynn
12.Charlotte - Gerald Henderson
13.Indiana - ???
Jrue Holiday -- the top of my wish list
Terrence Williams -- nice backup for Granger and Rush (Say goodbye to Daniels?)
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#26 » by fienX420 » Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:14 pm

I pretty much agree with DGrangeRx33 regarding Dejuan Blair. A couple of important additional notes regarding Blair though...

Blair is essentially unprecedentedly vertically challenged at the power forward position. Yes, guys his size have been able to succeed in the NBA. BUT, for the most part, said guys have been significantly athletically superior and more skilled than Blair. The closest comparisons for Blair are probably Millsap and Maxiell - BUT they have an advantage on Blair regarding their No Step Vertical Reach. Below is a link to modern NBA prospects sorted by this metric.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/?year=All&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=4&sort=9

Unfortunately, Blair falls below what appears to be a true line representing a players potential to survive at the PF position. He can reach just over 11'. The 'line' he would need to reach is merely an inch or so away. If he could improve his verticality by even an inch or two, he'd have a great chance to be Millsap-like. The problem is that Blair has just dropped a bunch of weight and even with this new-found 'explosiveness', he doesn't reach the bare minimum for this metric. Sure, he could work his way to do so, but it's a question mark. Furthermore, it's likely that his earthboundedness results from one of two sources - his weight or his knees. Two more question marks.

Another huge factor regarding Blair is that his NCAA dominance was at a much heavier weight. Besides workouts, he hasn't tried out his new body in true 5 on 5 game play. Will he be as effective with his unique style of play at a significantly lower weight? (<- Question mark).

There are simply too many question marks to consider drafting Blair in the first half of the first round. Is it possible that he is a totally unique player that will succeed in the NBA? Sure. At the very least, he should be able to act as an enforcer-type. Perhaps his wide body will mask his lateral weakness so that it takes more movement to move past him (he'll be able to hold his position). And his girth might allow him to carve out enough space so that he can maneuver effectively enough to rebound and score. I think it's too much conjecture.

I prefer to go with a player whose metrics suggest he should be able to succeed (Earl Clark, by the way, is freaking awesome measurement-wise - just needs strength). I would sooner draft Blair to play for the Colts than the Pacers. At 300+ lbs., his feet are quick, and his solid height, low center of gravity, and massive wingspan are ideal for fighting on the line of scrimmage.


EDIT: If they still allowed prolific hand-checking, I would give Blair a much better shot at being able at least succeed defensively. His wing-span would really come into play, and he should really be able to keep opposing bigs away from the basket. Now days though, plenty of guys will just blow right past him and he has no chance at the block from behind.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#27 » by PR07 » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:09 pm

People obsess too much over combine numbers. Look at Saer Sene and Troy Bell; both wowed at the combine, one's out of the league, and one's probably soon to follow.

I do not want Earl Clark. Call it a gut feeling. He doesn't seem to have the focus and desire to be a special player. Give me the less talented player, who wants it more.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#28 » by fienX420 » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:27 pm

I'm definitely not saying that good combine numbers will mean you'll be a good NBA player. But I think poor numbers in certain areas highly increase the likelihood of failure. Give the numbers a glance/chance - Blair has to do something nobody has done.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#29 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:14 am

The only thing that worries me about Blair is his knees.


Other than that, I'm really at the point where I'm going to be very interested on draft night, as I really don't have any favorite. It's going to be interesting to see how the night falls.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#30 » by fienX420 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:55 am

I can't wait.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#31 » by granger05 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 1:04 am

Yuck, this draft looks like my worst case scenario since I'm not interested in any of these guys that are left. I think Blair and Flynn are both too small to excel in the NBA. Also, I've posted before that in Larry's tenure making picks, we've tended toward players that were tall for their position so I think he has a real bias there and I doubt we pick either of those guys. I voted for Henderson, but I'm not excited about him either. I just think that he could be a nice complementary player which from this weak draft is about all I could hope for. I guess if the draft played out like this I'd rather go for a guy like Teague and just roll the dice (or trade down and see what we could get).

I hope the real draft board doesn't look like this at our selection.
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Re: KLN's Vote Mock, (#13) 

Post#32 » by fienX420 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 1:08 am

I agree, Bird has definitely leaned toward taller, longer players. But I think the exception is the PG position - he did trade for T.J. after all.

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